THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Cruisin'

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

That was certainly a deserved reputation for Knox his first two years in the league. 

In 2021, Knox had a catch % of 69% and a moderate drop rate of 5.6%.  2022, improved to 74% and drop rate stayed about the same.  Has he missed making a couple tough catches he could have contested, probably, but not many with that catch %. 

 

Do you have specific recent examples of Knox "not being very dependable" to counter this? He did try to go up and get a pass probably intended for Diggs last week but they were ad-libbing so I can't fault him for that.

 

I got on Gabe Davis last year for "not being very dependable", drops of near 10% and not being able to haul in the contested ball, rightly so IMO.  But to be fair to Gabe, a certain amount of that was Allen throwing to Gabe when he was really well covered and the throw really should have gone somewhere else.

For me, I think of him as not dependable because just doesn't seem to be a smooth (ah, there's that word, I get it know) pass catchers.  What makes him good is that he's athletic enough to make tough catches - turns his body pretty well, is a pretty good hands catcher, survives the ground pretty well, AND he's a big tough guy.  Not the biggest and not the toughest, but he can mix it up.  But he's all like Diggs, seems to be able always to be able to get his body in position to make a play AND still have the focus to catch the ball like he's playing the backyard.  

 

The point of the comment was that it was Knox and not a pass catcher like Diggs, because if it's Diggs it's a higher probability throw.   I don't think that's a knock on Knox.  That's just recognizing that the guy's collection of skills make him valuable on the field even if catching everything thrown at him is not his greatest talent.  

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I hear ya.

The problem is, I think that as long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, you're S.O.L. on this desire.

I don't think "always take the easy throw" is in his DNA. If it IS in there, it's buried by much stronger strands of "I'm gonna throw this insane tight window throw into triple coverage" DNA. 

I just personally don't think Josh will EVER be an "always take the easy throw" guy. I don't think he's wired that way. I think he's Brett Favre until the day he hangs up his cleats.

But this is also what makes Allen special.  More importantly Allen's chances of connecting on those harder throws are better then almost every other QB.  They are not as low a probability of being completed as if it was Danial Jones or Kurt Cousins taking them.  Like most things in life moderation is the place to be and for Allen that means not taking the easy throws all the time.

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I liked your review as usual.  My only quibble would be on the Allen shot to Knox in the end zone.  I think it was a great call and Allen made the right decision and he fit the ball into a tight space as only Allen and 1 or 2 other QB's in the NFL can do.  It was absolutely the right amount of aggression on 1st down at the 19 and it should have resulted in a TD.

 

Not catching that ball is what keeps Knox, who is a very good TE, from being elite.  If he starts catching those more regularly and/or Kincaid can make that type of catch then the Bills will be seeing elite level TE play.  That will make our offense even harder to stop, particularly in the Red Zone.

 

 

 

 

It might be the right amount of aggression if you're throwing to a really good pass catcher, like Diggs.   When you're throwing to Davis, you know what you're getting in pass catching.  When you're throwing to Knox you what you're getting.   With different receivers, you have a different probability of success.   That's I keep saying the easy throw doesn't just mean check downs.  The TD to Davis was an easy throw, because with single man coverage, Davis running free behind it, it's an easy throw.   The throw to Knox was not an easy throw - he had defenders around him, and it was Knox catching.   If it's Diggs, it might be the right throw.  If it's Knox, find a way to get 5 or 6 yards, and maybe break a tackle.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

There is no excuse for giving up a late FG

Some players on Defense need to sit next week 

Yeah Dammit! 

The Key to this week is, Jam Hill at the LOS and have someone over the top as well while sending all sorts of junk blitz wise at their OL. Hit Tua often and he is going to fold.  Will they get some numbers, yes it is what it is. We just have to keep those numbers and scores down.

 

Miami is going to run a Cover 2 high shell, if they don't they are stupid. When they do, a death by 1000 cuts is again on the menu. When they go man and single high, make them pay by QB  run or Deeper balls.

[stuvian]

There is an intensity and attention to detail that wasn't there last year. We are finishing tackles and getting consistent sacks and turnovers without Von Miller. We are not having negative yardage offensive plays like before. Josh is intelligently sliding on run plays. We seem to have enough fresh legs at RB that should reduce wear on Josh and force opposing teams to account for our ground game. I like how we're playing heading into Miami.

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

For me, I think of him as not dependable because just doesn't seem to be a smooth (ah, there's that word, I get it know) pass catchers.  What makes him good is that he's athletic enough to make tough catches - turns his body pretty well, is a pretty good hands catcher, survives the ground pretty well, AND he's a big tough guy.  Not the biggest and not the toughest, but he can mix it up.  But he's all like Diggs, seems to be able always to be able to get his body in position to make a play AND still have the focus to catch the ball like he's playing the backyard.  

 

The point of the comment was that it was Knox and not a pass catcher like Diggs, because if it's Diggs it's a higher probability throw.   I don't think that's a knock on Knox.  That's just recognizing that the guy's collection of skills make him valuable on the field even if catching everything thrown at him is not his greatest talent.  

 

I see your point, but Diggs is subject to different types of interference - he is often held, he can get out-muscled, he will be interfered with to save a TD at the cost of some yards.  Knox had 9 TD to Diggs 10 TD in 2020 because in theory, he should be able to out-muscle and out-jump more DBs. 

 

Of course I agree with you that Diggs is the superior receiver, but with the tighter space in the RZ, in theory bigger should be better.

 

I'd really like to see Kincaid get use in this role because he's smooooth.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Rubes]

I'm a little surprised more people aren't mentioning our relatively mediocre run defense. Good at times, gives up big chunk plays others. Washington gave up on it too early, because they were doing pretty decent with it against us.

 

If Miami and their resurgent ground game finds that kind of success against us early (and I'm concerned they will), we'll be in trouble.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I do actually want to contribute to the discussion here, because you brought up a point that I think is interesting.

First you said that there were too many field goals and not enough touchdowns. Later you said that you didn't like Josh's shot to the end zone to Knox. I was thinking that maybe those two thoughts are at odds with each other.

Some of what is leading to the lack of touchdowns right now is the new emphasis on playing smart, taking the short gains and checkdowns, and Josh's reads going short to long rather than long to short on a lot of plays. On the Knox play, he eschewed that philosophy and went for the throat. It was a bad but understandable drop in the rain that leads us to the conclusion that it wasn't a great decision. Better hands by Knox there and we're all lauding that play this morning.

My suspicion is that the Bills offense -- and Josh Allen, in particular -- is trying to find the balance right now between playing smart and taking risks. In 2020 and 2021, Josh seemed to have struck that balance quite well. For much of 2022, he was out of balance. Trying to play hero ball too often, not being smart often enough. This season, after the wakeup call of week one, I think he's trying to re-discover the balance. Maybe it's the transition to a new playcaller, new players around him, new personnel sets, whatever...the end effect is that the training wheels have been re-applied, and Josh is slowly shedding them a little bit at a time as he regains confidence and re-discovers balance.

My hope is that Josh continues to start out games by playing smart and taking short gains, building a little confidence and rhythm, and then turning into Killer Josh. That's when he's at his best to me. When he's taking small profits and being patient and frustrating the defense. Then, the MOMENT they start to creep down to cover the short stuff, he hits Gabe long for a score, or throws a rope to Knox in the end zone in a keyhole.

I think we're seeing a necessary growth period and re-discovery of balance for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, but it's gonna take a little time for this offense to hit its full stride. Even so, they converted 9 of 15 3rd downs yesterday and scored 30 points. Not bad for a "training wheels" day.

There will be times in the near future to strike deep or thread the needle. But now it's absolutely critical that Josh continues the course with this shorter passing attack.  I'd rather have 3 points then no points at all on a "forced into double coverage" pass.  I still have serious concerns with Dorsey, but I'm willing to ride him out this season and hope he mixes in more clever plays.

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I see your point, but Diggs is subject to different types of interference - he is often held, he can get out-muscled, he will be interfered with to save a TD at the cost of some yards.  Knox had 9 TD to Diggs 10 TD in 2020 because in theory, he should be able to out-muscle and out-jump more DBs. 

 

Of course I agree with you that Diggs is the superior receiver, but with the tighter space in the RZ, in theory bigger should be better.

 

I'd really like to see Kincaid get use in this role because he's smooooth.

True, but I think when Josh sees Diggs in a small opening, he knows Diggs will make a good play on the ball.   He doesn't know that about Knox.   At the end of the day, athletic ability wins over size, I think.   

 

My real point is I don't think on first down in that situation you want Allen to throw to either of them.  You're just less likely to get a touchdown out of that possession by throwing that pass than by taking a five-yard gain somewhere, because your probability of a first down is better at 2nd and 5 than 2nd and 10.  The first down gets you three more plays.  3rd and goal or 4th and goal if you're going for it, okay, throw that pass.   Before then, if you can get a first down, take what the play gives and try again.  

 

You're trying to score, sure, but the best way to score is to have a lot of chances to score.   If you tell me in advance that my time will, 100% get the offensive rebound, then every shot is a good shot.  Doesn't matter if I'm good or not, I should hoist it up first chance I get, because if I miss my team will get another shot anyway.   Well, in football, there aren't offensive rebounds, but there are first downs, which give your team additional shots, just in a different way.   Take the touchdown if it's there for the taking, but if it isn't a gimme, work on the first down. 

 

I was thinking about Steph Curry.  He is a great half-court shooter, because he's a great shooter and he practices half-court shots.  When it's the middle of the second quarter and he's bringing the ball up court, he doesn't just launch it from half court.  If he does, what does he say to the coach?   "I can make that shot, so it's a good shot."  Coach says, "It's not the best shot."  It's the same with Josh.  Josh's coach says to him, "Yes, Josh, I know you can throw that pass better than anyone else in the league.  We all get it.   That just does not mean that throwing that pass is the best option at this time."  

 

Don't take the relatively low probability throw until there is a reason that high probability throw simply won't help.  

[Shaw66]

30 minutes ago, Rubes said:

I'm a little surprised more people aren't mentioning our relatively mediocre run defense. Good at times, gives up big chunk plays others. Washington gave up on it too early, because they were doing pretty decent with it against us.

 

If Miami and their resurgent ground game finds that kind of success against us early (and I'm concerned they will), we'll be in trouble.

 

I think the running game is what McDermott is willing to give to teams.   It's always been like that with his Bills team.  They get gashed occasionally in the run game.   

 

In this game, McDermott figures stopping the pass is the most important aspect of good defense, and he wants a pass defense that can stop the run as well as possible.   Heck, he plays with a cornerback and two small linebackers.  

 

McDermott doesn't think that the average running team can run effectively enough against his defense to hurt him consistently.  When he plays an especially good running team, he can't muscle up his line, but he tries to adjust the scheme to stop the run.   

 

Every once in a while Washington ripped off a good run, and it made momentarily disappointed in the defense.  Then I told myself that that is what comes with this defense.   You just hope when it happens, you stop it short of Dalvin Cook going the distance.  

 

[Robert Paulson]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

agreed this is like making the first out at 3rd base- no excuse for that 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

True, but I think when Josh sees Diggs in a small opening, he knows Diggs will make a good play on the ball.   He doesn't know that about Knox.   At the end of the day, athletic ability wins over size, I think.   

 

My real point is I don't think on first down in that situation you want Allen to throw to either of them.  You're just less likely to get a touchdown out of that possession by throwing that pass than by taking a five-yard gain somewhere, because your probability of a first down is better at 2nd and 5 than 2nd and 10.  The first down gets you three more plays.  3rd and goal or 4th and goal if you're going for it, okay, throw that pass.   Before then, if you can get a first down, take what the play gives and try again.  

 

You're trying to score, sure, but the best way to score is to have a lot of chances to score.   If you tell me in advance that my time will, 100% get the offensive rebound, then every shot is a good shot.  Doesn't matter if I'm good or not, I should hoist it up first chance I get, because if I miss my team will get another shot anyway.   Well, in football, there aren't offensive rebounds, but there are first downs, which give your team additional shots, just in a different way.   Take the touchdown if it's there for the taking, but if it isn't a gimme, work on the first down. 

 

I was thinking about Steph Curry.  He is a great half-court shooter, because he's a great shooter and he practices half-court shots.  When it's the middle of the second quarter and he's bringing the ball up court, he doesn't just launch it from half court.  If he does, what does he say to the coach?   "I can make that shot, so it's a good shot."  Coach says, "It's not the best shot."  It's the same with Josh.  Josh's coach says to him, "Yes, Josh, I know you can throw that pass better than anyone else in the league.  We all get it.   That just does not mean that throwing that pass is the best option at this time."  

 

Don't take the relatively low probability throw until there is a reason that high probability throw simply won't help.  

 

Can't disagree with your real point.   I'm a bit unsure if that's on Josh, on Dorsey, or on a hellish amalgam of the two.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

agreed this is like making the first out at 3rd base- no excuse for that 

that's good analogy.  You'd much rather save the out than gain the base.  Why, because your chances of getting a run out of the inning are better if 100 times in a row you keep the man on second than if you try to stretch it.  

[HappyDays]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Josh has to stop making that first-down throw.  Third and ten, okay, but not on first down.  Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less.  I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere.  There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space.  Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler.  From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10.  

 

What makes you think that? On 2nd down we ran for 1 yard. Even assuming you're correct that a 4 yard checkdown was available (which I am not at all confident of in that condensed area of the field), maybe then it's 3rd and 5 and that's no guarantee. We probably kick the FG anyways.

 

We can't chip away 4 yards at a time into the endzone. The NFL doesn't work that way. It's too much living on the edge. Eventually you need to take your shots and score TDs. First downs are the priority right up until the 20 yard line, then the goal is TD. Obviously that is within reason, you can't throw interceptable balls that close to the endzone. But this was not an interceptable ball. It was a pass into the endzone where only his pass catcher could possibly come down with it. What's the problem there?

 

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Fortunately, he didn't throw an interception, which is the possibility with a throw like that,

 

There was no possibility of an interception there unless the ball took a goofy bounce, which can happen on any play including check downs. You're overexaggerating the difficulty of the throw. Yes there were a couple defenders in the area but Josh correctly recognized the leverage. That's what QBs are reading, leverage not body count. You have your TE with leverage against 2 defenders that both have their back to the QB. That's an easy decision every time. It isn't Josh's fault Knox didn't focus up and look for the ball. You're asking him to play the position differently than even his coaches would want. If you're playing Mahomes and he takes a 4 yard dump off over an endzone shot to a pass catcher with leverage, you're thanking your lucky stars.

 

There's a fine line between smart and conservative. You're leaning too far towards conservative.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by HappyDays

[BringBackFlutie]

11 hours ago, Logic said:

I think he's Brett Favre until the day he hangs up his cleats.

 

...I will strike you. 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Tua won’t throw four interceptions.  But he might get sacked nine times!

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Great analysis as always!!! This almost made me spit out my coffee!!! GO BILLS indeed!!!

[Logic]

10 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

...I will strike you. 

At least search the GIF, sheesh.

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

What makes you think that? On 2nd down we ran for 1 yard. Even assuming you're correct that a 4 yard checkdown was available (which I am not at all confident of in that condensed area of the field), maybe then it's 3rd and 5 and that's no guarantee. We probably kick the FG anyways.

 

We can't chip away 4 yards at a time into the endzone. The NFL doesn't work that way. It's too much living on the edge. Eventually you need to take your shots and score TDs. First downs are the priority right up until the 20 yard line, then the goal is TD. Obviously that is within reason, you can't throw interceptable balls that close to the endzone. But this was not an interceptable ball. It was a pass into the endzone where only his pass catcher could possibly come down with it. What's the problem there?

 

 

There was no possibility of an interception there unless the ball took a goofy bounce, which can happen on any play including check downs. You're overexaggerating the difficulty of the throw. Yes there were a couple defenders in the area but Josh correctly recognized the leverage. That's what QBs are reading, leverage not body count. You have your TE with leverage against 2 defenders that both have their back to the QB. That's an easy decision every time. It isn't Josh's fault Knox didn't focus up and look for the ball. You're asking him to play the position differently than even his coaches would want. If you're playing Mahomes and he takes a 4 yard dump off over an endzone shot to a pass catcher with leverage, you're thanking your lucky stars.

 

There's a fine line between smart and conservative. You're leaning too far towards conservative.

 

Yes, I may be leaning too far to the conservative side.  Wouldn't be the first time. 

 

But you're arguing a bunch of things that (1) I don't agree about, and (2) neither of us actually knows, because we don't have the data.  

 

I would say the probability of completing that pass was around 50%.  And whenever the ball is thrown into a crowd of defenders, there's a chance of interception.  But I admit, I don't have the data. 

 

But I don't think there's any argument that a coach would prefer to be 2nd and five from the 14 rather than second and ten from the 19.  Sure, first downs are tougher to get in the red zone, if you have a good offense, you should be able to get a first down after second and five, and that first down means you have three more plays to try to score the touchdown.  

 

The analytics guys know the probabilities of all of these situations. They know the probability of getting a touchdown from first and ten on the 19 if you throw a pass with a 50% likelihood of it being caught as compared to if you throw a pass with an 80% likelihood, and with the interception probabilities thrown in.   Neither of us knows, but I feel quite confident that the smart play on first down is take the easy throw.