THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Mistake-free Josh

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

If you watched the Jags game you would have seen that Mahomes, in fact, has not stopped making stupid plays, he just makes a lot less of them than Allen does...he literally threw up the exact same ball into double or triple coverage Allen did 3 times in the Jets game to the Jags and had it picked...he only did it once tho.

All QB's do it feom time to time, it's the nature of the beast.  But Mahomes, Rogers, Burrow just do it a heck of a lot less.  

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, jlgarsh said:

I thought the play calling was much better yesterday on offense (outside of the opening possession). They went back to what they did the first 4 games of last season. Use the short pass to open up the running game, control the clock, and keep the other offense off of the field.

 

The double dip before and after halftime made it 28-10 and they were in cruise control from then on. The only playcall I didn't love was on 4th and goal at the 1, thought hey could have just run a QB sneak. But Diggs was wide open. Someone said they thought the pass was intended for Diggs (but Knox got his hand in the way). I can't remember the last time they had a power back like Murray or Harris who could grind out yards to chew the clock.

 

The defense played great after the opening possession, and were a lot quicker to make adjustments than in years past. Let's go Buffalo!!! Go Bills!

I like all of these comments.  Interesting topics. 

 

Someone suggested that the opening series play calling was a message to Allen:  We're doing this by the book, and we're not giving you even an opportunity to make a big play.  If your teammates all do their job, you'll grind out a first down, but this offense is not going to depend you, Josh Allen, to carry the team.  Whether it was intentional, I think it had that effect.  

 

I'm usually a "take the points" guy, but I liked going for it.  Three minutes left, so if you don't make it, you're telling the Raiders they have to move the ball at least 60 yards just to get a field goal.  And you have confidence that your defense is up to the challenge.  In fact, on third down is when Rousseau made the great bull rush and Oliver forced Garoppolo to throw it away to avoid the safety.  I liked the gamble, thought it was relatively low risk.  

[jlgarsh]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I like all of these comments.  Interesting topics. 

 

Someone suggested that the opening series play calling was a message to Allen:  We're doing this by the book, and we're not giving you even an opportunity to make a big play.  If your teammates all do their job, you'll grind out a first down, but this offense is not going to depend you, Josh Allen, to carry the team.  Whether it was intentional, I think it had that effect.  

 

I'm usually a "take the points" guy, but I liked going for it.  Three minutes left, so if you don't make it, you're telling the Raiders they have to move the ball at least 60 yards just to get a field goal.  And you have confidence that your defense is up to the challenge.  In fact, on third down is when Rousseau made the great bull rush and Oliver forced Garoppolo to throw it away to avoid the safety.  I liked the gamble, thought it was relatively low risk.  

Thanks! What do you think about the Josh concussion theory from last game? I feel like there might be something to it. 

[BigAl2526]

Jeremy White may be thinking of Josh Allen as a finished product, and his week one performance is part of who he is.  If that is the case, then White could be right.  Hopefully, that is not the case and Josh can become more consistent in his exercise of discipline in passing. 

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

Thanks! What do you think about the Josh concussion theory from last game? I feel like there might be something to it. 

I really haven't thought about it, and I've read nothing of the evidence - when it might have happened, what evidence of confusion afterward is there, lot's of stuff I know nothing about.   So, I think it's certainly possible, but I have no idea how likely it is that was the reason.  Ultimately I'd say no, because although the Jets game may have been among the worst of his off-script games, it was far from the first time that we've seen him making decisions like that.  I think it is a learned behavior.

 

I haven't written this before, but when I saw Josh on the sideline before the start of the Jet's game, I said to my wife that I thought the Bills were in trouble.   He had a look that I've seen before.   He was wide-eyed, looked like kid for whom the moment was too big.   He didn't look emotionally ready.   And then in the third and fourth quarter, on the sideline sometimes they'd show him and his face was flushed - red like he was overheating or ov.er-excited.   I've seen that look before - first time was the Texans playoff game.  

 

So, instead of a concussion, if I had to look for the problem, I'd say it was about his emotional preparedness for the game.   He wasn't in the mental state of mind that allows him to be in full control of the game.   I think Mahomes, for example, is pretty consistently mentally ready.   And, give Mahomes a mild concussion and he might make decisions like Josh.  

 

Whatever.  We saw on Sunday what can happen when he's zeroed in, mentally, with a good game plan.  He was deadly.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, Special K said:

 

Ha, thought the same thing when I saw the Mahomes pick...bet the talking heads won't get on his case about it like they do with Josh.

 

They wouldn’t get on Josh’s case about it if he made one error.  It’s when Josh channels the Wasatch Brewing Company Polygamy Porter motto “why have just one?” that he rightly draws criticism

 

Mahomes had a 3 INT game just last season, vs Denver.  But the Chiefs won, so it wasn’t seen as a big issue.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

Jeremy White may be thinking of Josh Allen as a finished product, and his week one performance is part of who he is.  If that is the case, then White could be right.  Hopefully, that is not the case and Josh can become more consistent in his exercise of discipline in passing. 

Yes, that could be what White is thinking.   But implicit in what he was saying that when Josh is good, he's so good that you can afford to have a QB who has those games.  I think most coaches would say that no one is so great that you can afford to have him give away a couple of games a year.   That is, if the coach knows that his QB is going to lose two games a season for you, the coach would tell the GM they need a new QB. 

 

Elam is a similar case.  Talent that isn't doing the job the way the coaches want.  Obviously different, but similar in that sense.  The team isn't going to keep playing Elam if they don't think he can do the job the right way.  They won't keep Allen, either, if they don't believe that he can reshaped into a guy who makes decisions the right way.   

 

Allen's a smart guy.  McDermott's not stupid, either.  I don't think there's any way McDermott thinks that Allen is a finished product.  

 

 

[AlfaBill]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

They wouldn’t get on Josh’s case about it if he made one error.  It’s when Josh channels the Wasatch Brewing Company Polygamy Porter motto “why have just one?” that he rightly draws criticism

 

Mahomes had a 3 INT game just last season, vs Denver.  But the Chiefs won, so it wasn’t seen as a big issue.

Wrong. With few exceptions, the media wants to be right about Josh being a reach and a project with no accuracy blah bla bl. They can’t wait for the ‘see I told you game’. 

[Heathcliff]

Thanks for your thoughts Shaw!  I remember early in Josh’s career us lamenting over the fact he couldn’t throw the easy swing pass so the receiver could keep running. That is certainly no longer an issue. Dang that was a clinic. 

After reviewing the game highlights, I found myself enchanted with what they did with Crosby several times. Extra guy to slow him down a bit and funnel him into Brown with little remaining momentum. Then the extra guy went out and caught a pass with no one in the area. It was repeated many times with no answer from the defense. Genius on Dorsey’s part I dare say. Maybe he is a mad scientist?

Edited September 19, 2023 by Heathcliff

[Ga boy]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah.  He has to learn and control his behavior to fit the game.  

 

By the way, I saw some whirling dervishes a few months ago.  Fascinating. 

We’re you in Istanbul?

[Numark3]

9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

 

Here’s the simple proof.  Patrick Mahomes is a great QB.  He and Josh Allen are the only QBs in the league who regularly do magical thinks on the field.  All the other QBs are just football players; every week, Mahomes and Allen make throws that are among the top highlights on every network.  What’s the difference between the two?   Well, about five years ago, Mahomes stopped making stupid plays.  That’s the difference.

 

When Allen stops making stupid plays, he will be one of the greatest QBs of all time, possibly even the very best.  The only thing keeping Allen from being that great are the mistakes that Jeremy White tells us we should live with. 

 

 

 

 

this is an excellent example of a false narrative.  Over the last two years, Allen has a whopping four more interceptions than Mahomes.  FOUR.  When it comes to stats that try to count “balls that should have been intercepted”, Mahomes and Allen have similar counts.  Allen has three more interceptions than Burrows over the same time period.  

But Mahomes stopped making stupid plays apparently and Allen is Jekyll and Hyde.  If you watched Mahomes, you’d see someone that he does it all the time too.  Literally watch the highlights of the Jags game.  Watch Burrows be inaccurate as hell the last two weeks and barely move the ball

it’s just an untrue narrative that started with fans, creeped into the local media, and then is now a national narrative.  Allen throws about the same amount of interceptions than the other two franchise QBs in the league

 

4 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

All QB's do it feom time to time, it's the nature of the beast.  But Mahomes, Rogers, Burrow just do it a heck of a lot less.  

interception totals the last two years between Allen, Burrows, and Mahomes…29, 26, and 25.  Yea I don’t think Mahomes and Burrows do it a heck of a lot less.  

Edited September 19, 2023 by Crayola64

[iccrewman112]

9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You're right.  I just posted the same thought in Virgil's thread.  Josh should recognize that when the guy stays high, Josh can just power right through him.  

hurdling/leaping ensures no planted leg knee injuries.

[Casual fan]

Nice write up. Thanks.

 

But about the hole.

Are you sure that was for the new stadium?

Or was it the hole all the guys who dragged on Allen last week, speculating it's nearing time to move on, dug themselves into?

 

 

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, iccrewman112 said:

hurdling/leaping ensures no planted leg knee injuries.

It's true.  And someone point out last week that the leap in the Jets game looked like a good way to protect the ball.  

 

I don't know.  Bottom line is the more you leap over tacklers, the less effective it's going to be, because players are preparing for it.  

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, Numark3 said:

this is an excellent example of a false narrative.  Over the last two years, Allen has a whopping four more interceptions than Mahomes.  FOUR.  When it comes to stats that try to count “balls that should have been intercepted”, Mahomes and Allen have similar counts.  Allen has three more interceptions than Burrows over the same time period.  

But Mahomes stopped making stupid plays apparently and Allen is Jekyll and Hyde.  If you watched Mahomes, you’d see someone that he does it all the time too.  Literally watch the highlights of the Jags game.  Watch Burrows be inaccurate as hell the last two weeks and barely move the ball

it’s just an untrue narrative that started with fans, creeped into the local media, and then is now a national narrative.  Allen throws about the same amount of interceptions than the other two franchise QBs in the league

 

interception totals the last two years between Allen, Burrows, and Mahomes…29, 26, and 25.  Yea I don’t think Mahomes and Burrows do it a heck of a lot less.  

That's interesting.  Thanks.  But I wasn't talking just about interceptions.  I was talking about decision making.    Look at completion percentage.  Burrow 3, Mahomes 9, and Allen 32 last year. (Some partial seasons in there, but still, Allen's pretty far down the list.)    Lower completion percentage is some indication of poor decision making (although pass rush certainly might contribute to low completion percentage).    

[Chandler#81]

So, does the nightmare drives to/from the stadium improve after Sunday, or is everybody screwed for the next 3 years. Living in WNY and you have to leave for the stadium by 4am?

[Ayjent]

The Bills are nearly unbeatable when they play disciplined on offense.  I still think they have to attack the chains on every down but it doesn’t have to be a big play.  They choked the life out of the Raiders in the second half.  When they capped the first drive with a TD after 9+ minutes in the 3rd quarter it was game over.  That’s also a fun way to win, even if it’s less exciting, because it is exerting a dominance on the opposing D that will open everything else up and seal the game. I like dominating wins a lot more than exciting plays in close games that can go either way.  I want to see the backups get reps bc the game is decided. 
 

i’d like to see more well designed plays that are easy, bc that is one thing that separates the Chiefs from the Bills.  There are so many designed plays that are just simple execution that Reid has, making it a lower degree of difficulty for the offense.  I feel like the Bills have a tendency to get away from that - maybe that is on Josh, but I think it is on Dorsey at the end of the day.  The quick throws they do have to Harty are not well designed because he has to operate in a phone booth and involves no type of scheme to create space for him to turn on the jets. 
 

The running back rotation is good.  Cook is shifty and if he had more balance in the open field he’d be a superstar.  He is a bit feast or famine on his runs, and I like what they are setting up with the shotgun draws where Allen is basically rolling into the handoff.  Teams are going to start keying on this and bringing the safety down, which should open up big gains on easy crossing routes if they play action instead of handoff.  Murray is huge and a great back to have in short goal to go situations.  Harris is kind of like Singletary- he’s not an exceptional back but has decent vision, good speed and is a tough tackle.

[Buddo]

Nice post Shaw. 

I particularly like the ‘taking Josh behind he woodshed’ part, as it’s something that needs to be done to get the message across.

Allen is all about ‘team’ in many respects, but I feel he needs reminding just how much his own performance can impact ‘team’, when he plays recklessly. 

The guys at he bottom end of the roster, need the extra bucks that wins give them, and Josh having a dumb game, costs them badly. Yet without them, you never get the win regardless. That’s ‘team’, and I also think it’s a message Josh will be open to. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

10 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

hurdling/leaping ensures no planted leg knee injuries.

Up until someone puts the Captain insano power bomb on him. 

[Big Turk]

13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I like all of these comments.  Interesting topics. 

 

Someone suggested that the opening series play calling was a message to Allen:  We're doing this by the book, and we're not giving you even an opportunity to make a big play.  If your teammates all do their job, you'll grind out a first down, but this offense is not going to depend you, Josh Allen, to carry the team.  Whether it was intentional, I think it had that effect.  

 

I'm usually a "take the points" guy, but I liked going for it.  Three minutes left, so if you don't make it, you're telling the Raiders they have to move the ball at least 60 yards just to get a field goal.  And you have confidence that your defense is up to the challenge.  In fact, on third down is when Rousseau made the great bull rush and Oliver forced Garoppolo to throw it away to avoid the safety.  I liked the gamble, thought it was relatively low risk.  

 

Let's not forget that this huge increase in 12 personnel is going to take some getting a feel for in terms of philosophical change to the offense as well...last year we were one of the lowest, if not THE lowest, in terms of using 12 personnel.  This year so far we are #1 by a country mile in terms of 12 personnel.  

 

I don't think it's unfair to say Dorsey is still getting a feel for how to use this package to their advantage best and probably will continue to learn and adjust over the course of the first 8-10 weeks, I would imagine.