Kubiak's Josh Allen Analysis

[msw2112]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think Kubiak was actually measured in his analysis. He didn't pull any punches but at the same time he didn't ignore the fact that for stretches of this game Allen played very well.  And yes Allen made several of his patented elite throws, scrambles and runs.

 

One thing that stood out to me was Allen's decision not to run for the 1st down on the play he launched the deep INT.  IMO this is a problem of coaching.  In their zeal to cut down on Allen's runs the Bill's brain trust risks compromising one of Allen's great gifts.  I want Allen taking that run EVERY time.  The coaches need to reinforce that in that situation Allen should tuck the ball and head down the sideline.

 

 

 

I don't want Allen to run EVERY time, but when there's no defender between him and the sticks (and for that matter, no Bills player either - in other words, wide open green grass) he should run.  Tom Brady could have run for that first down, and maybe even Aaron Rodgers, achilles injury and all.  Allen has been in the league long enough and is talented and smart enough to know when it makes sense to run and when not to.  I agree that with his talent, he should run more often than the average QB, but he also needs to get out of bounds and/or slide rather than taking on defenders.  It's fun to watch and an adrenaline rush, but not good for his short or long term health.  Obviously, if it's late in the 4th quarter of a close game, overtime, the playoffs, etc. and the extra yardage is needed, it makes sense to do whatever is necessary in those situations, but otherwise, he needs to have situational awareness and be smart with how he finishes running plays.

 

With this one play in particular, I disagree with those who are saying that the INT was "just as good as a punt."  A run to the left sideline would have been an easy first down, so why would a punt even be necessary?  The INT killed a drive and gave the Jets some belief that they could stay in the game (which they did).

 

I was able to read the Kubiak article (despite the paywall and my lack of subscription) and agree that Kubiak was measured in his analysis.

Edited September 14, 2023 by msw2112

[Pete]

2 hours ago, appoo said:

I don't think that's what that was. the Guys at Cover1 I thought nailed this pretty good, Josh didn't check the off safety (Whitehead), and just assumed Jordan was taken up but a dig route on the right side - White didn't give a crap about the dig and bailed deep as soon as the right sided WR shoed that dig, and faded back into the EZ. 

 

So because Josh didn't check Jordan, he thought he had Diggs 1v1 on that deep post. If Jordan had been checked by the dig route, that's at worst an incomplete, and at best an elite play by Diggs to come down with it, which he's capable of doing. 

 

But ultimately, Josh needs to check that far safety and not make an assumption. 

I think Sherfield was supposed to go deeper in his route, and draw Whitehead, but Sherfield went too shallow.  
 

Gabe made a catch with Diggs nearby - spacing was off  a few plays 

[Charles Romes]

The jets game got me wondering whether a major key to defeating Allen is simply getting his pitch count up. If you make him dink and dunk in q1 his patience will boil over after enough attempts even if he’s having success.  

[Low Positive]

21 minutes ago, Pete said:

I think Sherfield was supposed to go deeper in his route, and draw Whitehead, but Sherfield went too shallow.  
 

Gabe made a catch with Diggs nearby - spacing was off  a few plays 

I don't think it would have mattered. Everyone in the world knew that the play was to Diggs. Whitehead was always going to go with Diggs there.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, msw2112 said:

 

I don't want Allen to run EVERY time, but when there's no defender between him and the sticks (and for that matter, no Bills player either - in other words, wide open green grass) he should run.  Tom Brady could have run for that first down, and maybe even Aaron Rodgers, achilles injury and all.  Allen has been in the league long enough and is talented and smart enough to know when it makes sense to run and when not to.  I agree that with his talent, he should run more often than the average QB, but he also needs to get out of bounds and/or slide rather than taking on defenders.  It's fun to watch and an adrenaline rush, but not good for his short or long term health.  Obviously, if it's late in the 4th quarter of a close game, overtime, the playoffs, etc. and the extra yardage is needed, it makes sense to do whatever is necessary in those situations, but otherwise, he needs to have situational awareness and be smart with how he finishes running plays.

 

With this one play in particular, I disagree with those who are saying that the INT was "just as good as a punt."  A run to the left sideline would have been an easy first down, so why would a punt even be necessary?  The INT killed a drive and gave the Jets some belief that they could stay in the game (which they did).

 

I was able to read the Kubiak article (despite the paywall and my lack of subscription) and agree that Kubiak was measured in his analysis.

Given Allen's history and willingness, in fact eagerness to run in similar circumstances in past games convinces me that his failure to take off here was a direct result of the coaches efforts to get him to cut back on his runs.   Think about what Sean Payton said to Russel Wilson about running the ball MORE.  My guess is if Payton were coach of the Bills he would recognize that the teams best chance to win a Super Bowl was letting Allen be Allen.

 

 

[BBFL]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

Given Allen's history and willingness, in fact eagerness to run in similar circumstances in past games convinces me that his failure to take off here was a direct result of the coaches efforts to get him to cut back on his runs.   Think about what Sean Payton said to Russel Wilson about running the ball MORE.  My guess is if Payton were coach of the Bills he would recognize that the teams best chance to win a Super Bowl was letting Allen be Allen.

 

 

Eh. To an extent but you need a run game or some form of misdirection to keep the defense from just sitting in a 2 deep or cover 4 shell and forcing Josh to lose his patience with dunking and dunking all night long. Everyone and their mother knows that. 2020 & 2021 (Josh’s best IMO) there was so much motion and misdirection it is peculiar that we haven’t revisited it more frequently if the run game via tailbacks can’t be established. 

San Fran’, KC, Philly, Detroit and even us too. The only one similar is Philly who make their QB the primary runner. 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

I think Sherfield was supposed to go deeper in his route, and draw Whitehead, but Sherfield went too shallow.  
 

Gabe made a catch with Diggs nearby - spacing was off  a few plays 

You aren’t wrong Pete that might be an issue with Josh getting used to Sherfield.
Rewatch the play Whitehead totally and completely ignored Sherfield like he knows Josh isn’t going there and just concentrated on playing Diggs.

If Josh hit Sherfield he has an easy 30 yard completion. 
Had Josh even thrown one to Sherfield earlier in the game to give him something to think about that play might have been different totally.

Part of that is on Josh but part of that is on play design. 

[klos63]

4 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

"Allen seemed to pass up easy completions in favor of looking deep".  there isn't anything else that needs to be said.

It's not just that he looked deep, it's that the deep play wasn't there. Not even close.

[RunTheBall]

4 hours ago, appoo said:

The one forgivable "decision" on an INT was the 3rd one. In that play Bills ran a smash concept (3 guys running routes to the sideline at 3 different levels), Sauce dipped into the low zone coverage in, leaving I think Davis to run that corner route - with leverage - on Jordan Whitehead. He read that perfectly, but that was really bad ball placement which led to that INT. Shouldn't even have been risky throw even, because that ball goes up the sideline, and instead Josh left that behind Davis. Thats a throw I'm confident he puts in a decent spot 9 out of 10. 

What are you talking about? Diggs and Knox were WIDE OPEN for the first down. There was no reason to make that throw to Davis who ran his typical crap route where his cut had about as much angle as a rainbow. It didn’t help he threw it behind him but it was absolutely the wrong decision. So was the first, so was the second, so was the fumble. Enough excuse making for Josh he blew it and needs to get his head in the game ASAP.

[RunTheBall]

5 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

One thing that stood out to me was Allen's decision not to run for the 1st down on the play he launched the deep INT.  IMO this is a problem of coaching.  In their zeal to cut down on Allen's runs the Bill's brain trust risks compromising one of Allen's great gifts.  I want Allen taking that run EVERY time.  The coaches need to reinforce that in that situation Allen should tuck the ball and head down the sideline.

 

 

This sounds nice in theory but you have at least 5 examples of Josh initiating contact, not sliding, not getting out of bounds when he could, and leaping 5 yards short of the first down line into 2 players. So if he’s going to run and throw his body all over the field on all those plays why on the one play where he’s got a wide open field in front of him to gallop do you think he’s all of a sudden thinking about what the coaches told him? Naa, he got Hero Ball on the brain and wanted to chuck it deep. It’s that simple.

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by RunTheBall

[CincyBillsFan]

11 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

This sounds nice in theory but you have at least 5 examples of Josh initiating contact, not sliding, not getting out of bounds when he could, and leaping 5 yards short of the first down line into 2 players. So if he’s going to run and throw his body all over the field on all those plays why on the one play where he’s got a wide open field in front of him to gallop do you think he’s all of a sudden thinking about what the coaches told him? Naa, he got Hero Ball on the brain and wanted to chuck it deep. It’s that simple.

 

 

I disagree.  The coaches are forcing Allen to think rather then intuitively react in these situations. Allen is Farve not Brees.

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

11 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

This sounds nice in theory but you have at least 5 examples of Josh initiating contact, not sliding, not getting out of bounds when he could, and leaping 5 yards short of the first down line into 2 players. So if he’s going to run and throw his body all over the field on all those plays why on the one play where he’s got a wide open field in front of him to gallop do you think he’s all of a sudden thinking about what the coaches told him? Naa, he got Hero Ball on the brain and wanted to chuck it deep. It’s that simple.

 

 

How do you fix it then? Do you fire Dorsey? Do you run the ball heavy to keep it out of Josh’s hand? Do you think Josh has run his course and trade him? 

[appoo]

36 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

What are you talking about? Diggs and Knox were WIDE OPEN for the first down. There was no reason to make that throw to Davis who ran his typical crap route where his cut had about as much angle as a rainbow. It didn’t help he threw it behind him but it was absolutely the wrong decision. So was the first, so was the second, so was the fumble. Enough excuse making for Josh he blew it and needs to get his head in the game ASAP.

You want Josh throwing that ball to Davis on that play. 

[CincyBillsFan]

46 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

How do you fix it then? Do you fire Dorsey? Do you run the ball heavy to keep it out of Josh’s hand? Do you think Josh has run his course and trade him? 

They're surprisingly sparse on the details to your question given the intensity of their criticism of Allen.  My guess is that they know deep down that Allen is more then likely to rebound big time and and go on a run of great games.  The sad thing is if he does some of these posters are going to be disappointed.

 

 

[RunTheBall]

34 minutes ago, appoo said:

You want Josh throwing that ball to Davis on that play. 

Look at the picture from Kubiaks article. Even thought it was taken with a potato you can clearly see Diggs in the middle and Knox in the flat wide open for the first while Davis is covered. How can you say Davis was the right read in this play? Come on.

56 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

How do you fix it then? Do you fire Dorsey? Do you run the ball heavy to keep it out of Josh’s hand? Do you think Josh has run his course and trade him? 

Allen has to fix it. He has it in him. He’s gotta trust the game plan and play within the script for the most part. He has to have the maturity to recognize exactly what defenses are taking away from him and baiting him to do and take what’s given. I’ve been a huge Dorsey skeptic. Dorsey was not the problem this time - just watch the All 22, there are guys open flat/short/sometimes intermediate all game. In the second half Josh passed those options up to go deep. I love Allen, he’s going to go off script sometimes and that’s what makes him great. But, when he doesn’t have to, when all he has to do is play small ball making easy throws that were there to win the game he has to have to self discipline to stay patient and take it.

[RunTheBall]

19 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

They're surprisingly sparse on the details to your question given the intensity of their criticism of Allen.  My guess is that they know deep down that Allen is more then likely to rebound big time and and go on a run of great games.  The sad thing is if he does some of these posters are going to be disappointed.

 

 

JFC does any slight criticism of Josh need to be predicated with a discourse on how great we think he is?

 

Ok here’s mine so next time so just put this in front of any slightly negative comment I may have on Josh’s performance in the future

I think Josh is by far the most talented QB we’ve had including Jim Kelly

Josh is a top 3 QB in the league

Josh has been asked to do way too much and has carried this team for years

Josh has the potential to be a HOF QB

 

There. Now that being said, Josh blew that game and all he had to do was play small ball catch with open receivers to win it. He’s in year 6 now, these types of games should be few an far between. I fully expect him to bounce back, I hope he finally “gets it” and takes what the D gives him when doing that will result in a W. There are going to be times we need Josh to be Super Josh to win a game and just put the team on his shoulders and wing it. This wasn’t one of those games. All he needed to do was stay patient. It’s ok to say that.

 

 

[Saint Douggie]

Imagine paying money to read a Buffalo News article

[CincyBillsFan]

24 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

JFC does any slight criticism of Josh need to be predicated with a discourse on how great we think he is?

 

Ok here’s mine so next time so just put this in front of any slightly negative comment I may have on Josh’s performance in the future

I think Josh is by far the most talented QB we’ve had including Jim Kelly

Josh is a top 3 QB in the league

Josh has been asked to do way too much and has carried this team for years

Josh has the potential to be a HOF QB

 

There. Now that being said, Josh blew that game and all he had to do was play small ball catch with open receivers to win it. He’s in year 6 now, these types of games should be few an far between. I fully expect him to bounce back, I hope he finally “gets it” and takes what the D gives him when doing that will result in a W. There are going to be times we need Josh to be Super Josh to win a game and just put the team on his shoulders and wing it. This wasn’t one of those games. All he needed to do was stay patient. It’s ok to say that.

 

 

Why are you quoting me?  I've repeatedly said Allen played terribly and lost the game. But my point was that it's one freaking game and that the piling on here on 2BD and everywhere else is over the top and way to harsh. So are you saying that the criticism of Allen in 2BD has only been "slightly negative"?  Or that what we're seeing on 2BD is just "slight criticism"? 

 

Judas Priest you said exactly what I've been saying yet you call me out on it?

 

 

[RunTheBall]

7 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Why are you quoting me?  I've repeatedly said Allen played terribly and lost the game. But my point was that it's one freaking game and that the piling on here on 2BD and everywhere else is over the top and way to harsh. So are you saying that the criticism of Allen in 2BD has only been "slightly negative"?  Or that what we're seeing on 2BD is just "slight criticism"? 

 

Judas Priest you said exactly what I've been saying yet you call me out on it?

 

 

My bad dude. 78 was responding to me so I wrongly assumed your comment was meant towards me. 
 

I'm a huge Josh supporter. I just feel strongly he unnecessarily went into Josh Mode and at year 6 we shouldn't be seeing that very often. I fully expect a bounce back
 

I rarely ciritcise him so clearly misinterpreted your meaning. Thanks for the clarification.  
 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by RunTheBall

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, Saint Douggie said:

Imagine paying money to read a Buffalo News article

imagine reading it for free like I did.