Do you guys feel right about FA/Draft and the "Process" ?

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Far too soon to see how it all gels...but there is reason that believe that this will be a better team then last year. How that will translate to the win/loss column is very fluid, however.

 

-IOL should be significantly better in run and pass pro

 

-The sum of Kincaid/Harty/Sheffield should upgrade on McKenzie/Crowder/Kumerow/Beasley

 

-Additions of Harris/Murray give new element to run game

 

-Allen's elbow should be healed along with Cook/Shakir possibly having expanded roles.

 

-On defense Having Hyde back and Poyer healed significantly upgrade the S position. Throw Rapp into the mix and we are deep there.

 

-Hoping White rebounds and Von comes back ready. Even if those 2 guys play at 75% of what they were preinjury that's a huge upgrade to what we had at the end of the year.

 

-Fraziet out/McDermott in at DC. This is going to be the biggest plus for the Bills. I actually like Frazier. Good man, a TON of knowledge. His presence will be missed during the week in the clubhouse. But he tended to be too passive. If Coach falls back to his roots as a playcaller that defense should be more attacking than we have seen in the past.

 

Now, it does appear on paper the schedule (specifically the away and division) will be BEASTLY. But it's a week to week leage and it's a matter of what shape some of those teams are in when we play them. 

 

As long as Buffalo finds 10-11 wins and makes the playoffs they have a chance. Go Bills!

 

Boy, you said a mouthful there.  Agree with you fwiw.  

 

Allow me to elaborate a little bit.  It's easy this time of year to think that your draft just provided the "missing pieces" and automatically assume improvement.  I think we have a little of both, and JfR in another thread opined that it appears that McD's been told to work with what he has (given the resources pumped into D to date) while they revamp the Offense.  Sounds right.  

 

As you implied or outright stated, there are a lot of variables above.  

 

Offensively, on paper there's absolutely no reason why it shouldn't make leaps and bounds.  I can visualize Allen surpassing Manning's 2013 season in Denver of 55 TDs on 5,477 Yards.  Would I put money on it happening?  No, but Manning did it with Demaryius Thomas, Decker, Julius Thomas (TE), and Welker, with Moreno and nothing Monte Ball as the RBs.  Contrast that with Diggs, Davis, Knox, Kincaid as WRs/TEs and Harris and Cook as the RBs.  

 

Having said that, Dorsey can't seem to figure out what's best.  There were times last season that we all saw, where our RBs, even if typically against crappy rushing Ds, were carving out HUGE yards-per-carry, 7, 8, or even more, and Dorsey stopped running them despite us being up, thereby shortening or even ending drives.  It was mindboggling.  

 

To your points, the variables ... 

 

-  The interior OL improvement should help the OTs.  Dawkins is fine, hopefully it takes some stress off of Brown.  

 

-  Per above, the running game is entirely dependent upon Dorsey.  He could snuff it, or he could have it be league leading given the heat that our passing game will provide.  Which way will the cards fall.  

 

-  Allen's elbow, is it better?  The short answer is that we don't know.  He and the team are going to say that it's fine and 100% even if it isn't.  He didn't have surgery which is bothersome.  As we all know, some doctor explained that his injury limits his ability to throw short and throw short accurately.  Which way will the cards on that fall.  

 

-  Hyde and Poyer are back, but Poyer, unless I missed it, did not have surgery, and has Hyde's back issue gone away entirely?  He's already told us that it's been a chronic issue.  Will the knee bother Poyer as the season wears on?  The short answer is that we don't know.  Both are 32 and out of their primes which doesn't help and which typically sees players start to decline.  Which way will the cards fall.  

 

-  What about White?  He wasn't good last season, below average.  It stands to reason that he'll be better this season, but will he get back to his dominant impact self?  Which way will the cards fall.  

 

-  As to Miller, he suffered a similar injury to what White had, and it's common knowledge that players are not themselves the season following and often never fully recover.  He's also 34 and out of his prime whereas White's at the beginning of his.  If that's a harbinger it's not good for Miller.  It's a safe bet that he's finished as an impact player.  We'll see.  

 

-  While McD is now coaching the D, how will that impact his overall coaching of the team, which has been highly questionable at times, often key times w/o regurgitating them.  Can he do both?  Will the offense be better or worse w/ less of his input as I suspect he'll be more preoccupied with the D now.  Which way will the cards fall there?  

 

I'll add the defense in general.  They play of the D before and after Miller went out was pronounced.  Our pass D played to a well below average after that, even if the Pats game (post-Hamlin) is not considered, and our metrics dropped significantly.  Our defensive rankings extrapolated out for an entire season in those last five games were 18th in passing TDs allowed, 12th in INT generation, 23rd in Sack generation, 24th in Sack %, and 26th in QB Hits.  

 

Here's the thing, last season we played the following QBs: 

 

Before Von's injury:  Stafford, Tannehill, Tagovailoa, Jackson, Pickett, Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Cousins, and Brissett.  

After Von's injury:  Mac Jones (twice), Mike White, Tagovailoa, and Zach Wilson.  

 

That doesn't bode well.  Adding additional question marks to this season, here are the QBs that we face this season:  

 

Mahomes, Herbert, Hurts, Burrow, Rodgers (twice), Tagovailoa (twice), Lawrence, Prescott, Daniel Jones, Garoppolo, with the weaker ones being Mac Jones (or Zappe), Wilson, Mayfield, and whomever is starting for the Skins.  

 

That's a much rougher slate of QBs and offenses that we face than last season.  If our defense plays more to the post-Miller-injury standard than to the pre, we could see a significant regression in the play of the D, which would put more pressure on the O, which in turn will probably boost the offensive stats.  

 

We'll see what happens.  There's reason for optimism but also some more minor cause for concerns.  My position hinges on whether or not Dorsey can piece things together this season to get the most out of what is arguably the most talented set of receiving options we've ever had, while utilizing the running game to capitalize off of that.  There's no reason why we cannot lead the league in ToP and drive stats.  But will Dorsey do the things that are required to achieve that.  He's the biggest wild-card in the batch.  

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by PBF81

[NoHuddleKelly12]

We got unquestionably better with weapons, OL, and D coordinator. My concern would be on D personnel (Dline, and MLB). But overall I think we are better positioned now to seriously challenge for the AFC crown than at any time since 2020, imho. 
 

 

[Edit: DL big help from the Poona signing 👍🏻👍🏻]

Edited May 2, 2023 by NoHuddleKelly12

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Not trying to be too glib but the team's success will hinge on exactly what it has for the last three years.  Allen's arm and McD's coaching.

Allen's talent has been good enough for a deep playoff run and the coaching staff has not been good enough to get them a championship.

Some of that has changed since last year.  Dorsey has a year of experience and they may be maturing their offensive philosophy.  McD is now taking full ownership of the defense. Will it be enough?  I hope so. I am encouraged from what they are doing.    

It's easy to say SB or bust, but on the contrary in this AFC they could be a great team and still not get to the SB.  

I am a McDermott skeptic.  He has built a great culture but he is outcoached in the playoffs.  I'm not sure he is even the fifth best coach in the AFC. He is #1 in culture and team building but in terms of strategy I would put Reid, Payton, Peterson, and Taylor ahead of him and then it is probably a tie between McD, Belichick without Brady, and maybe even McDaniel.   

I am optimistic this team can go all the way with Allen.  He's the best player they have had since Bruce Smith.  We have the QB.  Barring injury they will be a tough team to beat all year.  They could be 11-5 and be a better team in the playoffs than they were a year ago.  

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Having said that, Dorsey can't seem to figure out what's best.  There were times last season that we all saw, where our RBs, even if typically against crappy rushing Ds, were carving out HUGE yards-per-carry, 7, 8, or even more, and Dorsey stopped running them despite us being up, thereby shortening or even ending drives.  It was mindboggling.  

 

My position hinges on whether or not Dorsey can piece things together this season to get the most out of what is arguably the most talented set of receiving options we've ever had, while utilizing the running game to capitalize off of that.  There's no reason why we cannot lead the league in ToP and drive stats. 

 

 

 

 

So two things to address here- first the Bills have never been committed to a consistent rush attack since Allen became starter. I believe it's a combination of factors including the state of the offensive line as well as philosophically they don't believe in it but it's been a consistent theme carried over from Daboll, not a Dorsey specific issue

 

It sort of touches on a front office that believes strongly in their offensive philosophy which they don't really prioritize (correctly, imo) the kinds of things like the bolded because they're outdated and -ev. Last year the teams with the highest average drive time were the Packers, Steelers, Raiders, Falcons, and Browns respectively. These are bad offenses. They're bad because they don't score points or gain a lot of yards...because they don't have good passing attacks...because they don't have good QBs...so they run the ball a lot...which takes up a lot of time/drive

 

[TheBrownBear]

I like what Beane's done this offseason.  Nothing too sexy (maybe Kincaid?), but we should be a better team for sure.

 

Also, given how 2022 unfolded, I still can't believe that we are entering 2023 with Hyde/Poyer as our starting safeties and Hamlin poised to resume his backup role.  And I mean that in a positive way.

[B-Large]

I think with the additions just made, and Andy Reid coaching that unit, I think they may have gotten over the hump to something very special....

 

McD and Dorsey?  I hope so.  I really do.

Edited May 2, 2023 by B-Large

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Just pointing it out, but you do realize that we've said similar about the WRs & OL every year since we signed Brown & Beasley, right?  

 

I can see us being the best offense in NFL history, or being about the same with specific issues here and there.  

 

So much of this depends upon Dorsey and I'm not very confident in that regard.  

 

Give us a to notch OC and I see this offense rivaling the best in NFL history.  

 

Time will tell as always.  

 

 

everything on Dorsey now. To guess on numbers or anything of the sort, you have to assume dorsey will turn it around

[PBF81]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So two things to address here- first the Bills have never been committed to a consistent rush attack since Allen became starter. I believe it's a combination of factors including the state of the offensive line as well as philosophically they don't believe in it but it's been a consistent theme carried over from Daboll, not a Dorsey specific issue

 

It sort of touches on a front office that believes strongly in their offensive philosophy which they don't really prioritize (correctly, imo) the kinds of things like the bolded because they're outdated and -ev. Last year the teams with the highest average drive time were the Packers, Steelers, Raiders, Falcons, and Browns respectively. These are bad offenses. They're bad because they don't score points or gain a lot of yards...because they don't have good passing attacks...because they don't have good QBs...so they run the ball a lot...which takes up a lot of time/drive

 

 

It's never a bad idea though to run time out to keep your superstar QB off the field and safe if you're up by a bunch, particularly if your RBs are grinding out huge chunks of yardage.  I have no idea why throwing it and risking INTs, sacks and fumbles, as well as injuries to your QB is a better option.  That's hardly an outdated concept.  

 

Agree that they've never been committed to running the ball, but when it's working like clockwork, they should use it.  

 

I hear ya on the prioritization on offense and offensive philosophy.  

 

Also, a good running game will without question open up the  passing game.  That's not outdated either.  

 

Not sure why the front office would dictate what McD does on the field though either.  Singletary averaged 4.7 ypc and had he gotten 250 carries, which would have been good for 6th in the league in rushing and finished where Dalvin Cook did, and none of us would be talking about needing a RB.  We're never going to have a "top RB" that gets fewer than 200 carries.  

 

Did I misinterpret or misunderstand that?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

It's never a bad idea though to run time out to keep your superstar QB off the field and safe if you're up by a bunch, particularly if your RBs are grinding out huge chunks of yardage.  I have no idea why throwing it and risking INTs, sacks and fumbles, as well as injuries to your QB is a better option.  That's hardly an outdated concept.  

 

Agree that they've never been committed to running the ball, but when it's working like clockwork, they should use it.  

 

I hear ya on the prioritization on offense and offensive philosophy.  

 

Also, a good running game will without question open up the  passing game.  That's not outdated either.  

 

Not sure why the front office would dictate what McD does on the field though either.  Singletary averaged 4.7 ypc and had he gotten 250 carries, which would have been good for 6th in the league in rushing and finished where Dalvin Cook did, and none of us would be talking about needing a RB.  We're never going to have a "top RB" that gets fewer than 200 carries.  

 

Did I misinterpret or misunderstand that?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

No you got it, we just disagree on some points

 

For example I believe it's been proven that the quality of your run game actually does not in fact open up the passing game via a vis play action, this is a good explanation of it here but there are more similar studies https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/18/nfl-analytics-study-running-the-ball-play-action-success-mike-mccarthy-dallas-cowboys/

 

100% agree Singletary was good enough for our purposes as an RB but may have left something to be desired in pass catching and pass pro overall kind of how McKinnon was such a revelation for the Chiefs

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No you got it, we just disagree on some points

 

For example I believe it's been proven that the quality of your run game actually does not in fact open up the passing game via a vis play action, this is a good explanation of it here but there are more similar studies https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/18/nfl-analytics-study-running-the-ball-play-action-success-mike-mccarthy-dallas-cowboys/

 

100% agree Singletary was good enough for our purposes as an RB but may have left something to be desired in pass catching and pass pro overall kind of how McKinnon was such a revelation for the Chiefs

 

Well, to clarify, and w/o reading that, but I will, I'm not saying that as a philosophy per se to run the ball like that, what I'm saying is that if you happen to be ripping off 8 yards/carry, you're up, why stop running the ball?  Keep running until they stop you.  That happened a number of times last season, and some of those times we started throwing, at least once turning the ball over via INT, and ending drives.  Everyone here was beside themselves.  

 

IMO we didn't have the OL last season to be able to feature the run like that on a regular basis even if we'd wanted to.  

 

Getting back to my point, that was on Dorsey.  It was all on Dorsey and few people were satisfied with him, on that we almost all agree.  

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by PBF81

[Chaos]

Until Sean McDermott proves he can outcoach Andy Reid and Zac Taylor

in the post season we may not have done enough. Our roster has been sufficient for for the last two seasons to go to the Super Bowl. 

[frostbitmic]

i voted struggle to make the AFC Championship game ... The Bengals and Chiefs will struggle to make it as well. That's what happens when 3 of the top 4 teams are in the AFC.

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, to clarify, and w/o reading that, but I will, I'm not saying that as a philosophy per se to run the ball like that, what I'm saying is that if you happen to be ripping off 8 yards/carry, you're up, why stop running the ball?  Keep running until they stop you.  That happened a number of times last season, and some of those times we started throwing, at least once turning the ball over via INT, and ending drives.  Everyone here was beside themselves.  

 

IMO we didn't have the OL last season to be able to feature the run like that on a regular basis even if we'd wanted to.  

 

Getting back to my point, that was on Dorsey.  It was all on Dorsey and few people were satisfied with him, on that we almost all agree.  

 

 

Well because running the ball is -ev compared to throwing it, for starters

 

I was one of the few satisfied w Dorsey personally

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No you got it, we just disagree on some points

 

For example I believe it's been proven that the quality of your run game actually does not in fact open up the passing game via a vis play action, this is a good explanation of it here but there are more similar studies https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/18/nfl-analytics-study-running-the-ball-play-action-success-mike-mccarthy-dallas-cowboys/

 

Yeah, I see where you're coming from now, I don't disagree.  I read it, again, I'd tweak a few things in that analysis, which would add a tad bit of complexity, but otherwise don't disagree with it.  

 

You're focusing on as a philsophy, as you stated or at least implied.  I was referring more to merely situationally.  

 

Put yourself in the situation of a DC, and we're running on you getting huge chunks like clockwork.  5, 7, , 8, 10 yards at a pop, getting first downs, moving down the field.  Meanwhile your fans are screaming at the TV to put more men up front, which, unless you want to allow that to continue, are going to do that.  

 

But do that with Allen back there an you'll pay for it.  In short, in those games that we were ripping off large chunks like that, which weren't many, four, maybe five, and also not against great Ds as I recall, at least not great rushing Ds, keep doing it until they commit enough men to stop it.  At that point, let Allen rip them up.  

 

But yeah, as a philsophy, for this team, no, not in the cards, we agree on that.  

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Well because running the ball is -ev compared to throwing it, for starters

 

Not sure what you mean by that?  

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I see where you're coming from now, I don't disagree.  I read it, again, I'd tweak a few things in that analysis, which would add a tad bit of complexity, but otherwise don't disagree with it.  

 

You're focusing on as a philsophy, as you stated or at least implied.  I was referring more to merely situationally.  

 

Put yourself in the situation of a DC, and we're running on you getting huge chunks like clockwork.  5, 7, , 8, 10 yards at a pop, getting first downs, moving down the field.  Meanwhile your fans are screaming at the TV to put more men up front, which, unless you want to allow that to continue, are going to do that.  

 

But do that with Allen back there an you'll pay for it.  In short, in those games that we were ripping off large chunks like that, which weren't many, four, maybe five, and also not against great Ds as I recall, at least not great rushing Ds, keep doing it until they commit enough men to stop it.  At that point, let Allen rip them up.  

 

But yeah, as a philsophy, for this team, no, not in the cards, we agree on that.  

 

 

 

 

Not sure what you mean by that?  

-ev = Minus Expected Value

[Patrick Duffy]

18 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

i voted struggle to make the AFC Championship game ... The Bengals and Chiefs will struggle to make it as well. That's what happens when 3 of the top 4 teams are in the AFC.

 

Never know what will happen throughout the season that can significantly hurt any teams chance to make the post season and go far. 

 

As for the Bengals and Chiefs you mentioned though, I'd think they are likey 2 favorites to make the AFCCG

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I see where you're coming from now, I don't disagree.  I read it, again, I'd tweak a few things in that analysis, which would add a tad bit of complexity, but otherwise don't disagree with it.  

 

You're focusing on as a philsophy, as you stated or at least implied.  I was referring more to merely situationally.  

 

Put yourself in the situation of a DC, and we're running on you getting huge chunks like clockwork.  5, 7, , 8, 10 yards at a pop, getting first downs, moving down the field.  Meanwhile your fans are screaming at the TV to put more men up front, which, unless you want to allow that to continue, are going to do that.  

 

But do that with Allen back there an you'll pay for it.  In short, in those games that we were ripping off large chunks like that, which weren't many, four, maybe five, and also not against great Ds as I recall, at least not great rushing Ds, keep doing it until they commit enough men to stop it.  At that point, let Allen rip them up.  

 

But yeah, as a philsophy, for this team, no, not in the cards, we agree on that.  

 

 

 

 

Not sure what you mean by that?  

In terms of EPA I mean

 

https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2019/10/20/passing-and-rushing-plays-in-the-nfl/

[dpberr]

Top NFL team in talent at the FO, Coach and player level.

 

The leap from the really good to great is 100% emotional and mental for this team.

 

When this team's collective "head" is right, they can soundly beat every team in the league.  That's the hard work for 2023.  

 

 

[mjt328]

My opinion on this team is a mixed-bag.

 

This front office and coaching staff did a fantastic job turning around a franchise, which was a total embarrassment for over 20 years.  The main reason is obviously (finally) landing a franchise-QB in Josh Allen, something which eluded the previous regimes.  But it also extends to the drastic change in culture and confidence inside the locker room.  Players around the NFL actually want to to be in Buffalo and expect to win here.

 

With that said... it's just tough to win a Super Bowl.

For all the things Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have done right, they have done just enough wrong to keep us from getting over the final hurdle.  A few too many ineffective draft picks.  A few too many bad free agent signings.  Some bad coaching decisions at key times.  Sprinkled in with some bad luck.

 

I'm not trying to be a negative person.  I think Beane has done a good job this offseason with very tight resources.  But I can't pretend that guys like Connor McDermott and Deonte Harty are going to be the key puzzle pieces that push us past the finish line.  I also can't ignore the strong rosters being constructed by the Jets and Dolphins, or that the Chiefs and Bengals still have everything needed to contend. 

 

Hoping I'm wrong, but I just don't know if the Bills have done enough.

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

My opinion on this team is a mixed-bag.

 

This front office and coaching staff did a fantastic job turning around a franchise, which was a total embarrassment for over 20 years.  The main reason is obviously (finally) landing a franchise-QB in Josh Allen, something which eluded the previous regimes.  But it also extends to the drastic change in culture and confidence inside the locker room.  Players around the NFL actually want to to be in Buffalo and expect to win here.

 

With that said... it's just tough to win a Super Bowl.

For all the things Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott have done right, they have done just enough wrong to keep us from getting over the final hurdle.  A few too many ineffective draft picks.  A few too many bad free agent signings.  Some bad coaching decisions at key times.  Sprinkled in with some bad luck.

 

I'm not trying to be a negative person.  I think Beane has done a good job this offseason with very tight resources.  But I can't pretend that guys like Connor McDermott and Deonte Harty are going to be the key puzzle pieces that push us past the finish line.  I also can't ignore the strong rosters being constructed by the Jets and Dolphins, or that the Chiefs and Bengals still have everything needed to contend. 

 

Hoping I'm wrong, but I just don't know if the Bills have done enough.

 

It's a fair assessment imo

 

The fact that this team hasn't sniffed a Super Bowl w prime Josh Allen on a cheap deal is borderline criminal mismanagement