WR Trent Sherfield signed

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I think that's nonsense.  KC won the Super Bowl with a great QB, and they didn't have a number 2 over 1000 yards.  They just had Kelce.   That's my whole point.  A super stud number 2 is a luxury, not a necessity.   Allen can get 4000 yards with the receivers and backs he has.  No problem 

So KC having a a WR with over 1000 yards would’ve made things different? Juju had  933 yards——- and 30 more catches than Gabe-  on 8 more targets…..while missing 3 games.  
 

When forming my opinion of Gabe Davis as a good WR2, I don’t look at stats.  I look at making clutch catches when Diggs is bracketed.  I look at separation.  If they don’t get much separation, I look at contested catches.  If you want to look at stats- look at drops.  Look at catch %.  Not volume stats based on playing time on a team that had ZERO other outside WRs to compete with him.

 

I hope we replace and trade him.  He wont be worth the next contract as our #4.  He’s not good enough to be our WR2.  
 

agree to disagree

Edited March 22, 2023 by NewEra

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

It's this notion that Davis somehow is not "a real proven #2" that I don't get.   What's not real and proven about 48 receptions for 836 yards (17.4 per reception) and 7 touchdowns in 15 games?   I think there were three teams with two receivers over 1000 yards each, and that proves that it's unusual to have two.   Davis doesn't have to go over 1000 to be a "real proven #2."   What he did in 2022 proved it.  

 

 

My issue with Davis is the amout of targets compared to receptions.....  

Maybe thats because Allen goes long often and those %s will drop, but he barely crosses 50% which is unacceptable when you are trying to move the chains 


Looking at this chart Davis and Shakir were 50% and 52%... Davis was our #2 in targets. I dont think that is good enough, something has to improve here if these players are our future

 

https://edraft.com/nfl/fantasy-football/tools/targets/?season=2022-2023&team=BUF

compare to CIncinnatti, who doesn't have anyone below 60% target/rec till player #10 on their list

 

https://edraft.com/nfl/fantasy-football/tools/targets/?season=2022-2023&team=CIN

and KC

 

https://edraft.com/nfl/fantasy-football/tools/targets/?season=2022-2023&team=KC

 

KC has 2 players hitting 52% or lower in the top 6. But they have to get to 3rd most targeted player to hit that 52% and less targets

 

 

 

I guess I want to see more consitency from our #2 WR, now that could be on Allen for forcing the ball downfield, or it could be our scheme which pushed the ball downfield to often and loweered our target/Rec % but any way you slice it we need more consistency from our O and less incompletes/INTs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

So KC having a a WR with over 1000 yards would’ve made things different? Juju had  933 yards——- and 30 more catches than Gabe-  on 8 more targets…..while missing 3 games.  
 

When forming my opinion of Gabe Davis as a good WR2, I don’t look at stats.  I look at making clutch catches when Diggs is bracketed.  I look at separation.  If they don’t get much separation, I look at contested catches.  If you want to look at stats- look at drops.  Look at catch %.  Not volume stats based on playing time on a team that had ZERO other outside WRs to compete with him.

 

I hope we replace and trade him.  He wont be worth the next contract as our #4.  He’s not good enough to be our WR2.  
 

agree to disagree

Got the agree to disagree.

 

I look for production of the offense, not for little nuanced stats like contested catches or catches when Diggs is bracketed.  All I have said and continue to say is that the production that Davis gives the Bills is good #2 production, and the solution to the problems on offense (real or perceived) is not to get a receiver who will get you 200 more yards per season.  Having a #1 receiver playing behind your true #1 receiver is not a sustainable plan for the offense.  

 

The solution to the offense is to improve the offensive line so that running backs have consistently better opportunities and so that Allen isn't forced out of the pocket so much.   That's what will improve the total offensive production in a sustainable way.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

 

My issue with Davis is the amout of targets compared to receptions.....  

Maybe thats because Allen goes long often and those %s will drop, but he barely crosses 50% which is unacceptable when you are trying to move the chains 


Looking at this chart Davis and Shakir were 50% and 52%... Davis was our #2 in targets. I dont think that is good enough, something has to improve here if these players are our future

 

https://edraft.com/nfl/fantasy-football/tools/targets/?season=2022-2023&team=BUF

compare to CIncinnatti, who doesn't have anyone below 60% target/rec till player #10 on their list

 

https://edraft.com/nfl/fantasy-football/tools/targets/?season=2022-2023&team=CIN

and KC

 

https://edraft.com/nfl/fantasy-football/tools/targets/?season=2022-2023&team=KC

 

KC has 2 players hitting 52% or lower in the top 6. But they have to get to 3rd most targeted player to hit that 52% and less targets

 

 

 

I guess I want to see more consitency from our #2 WR, now that could be on Allen for forcing the ball downfield, or it could be our scheme which pushed the ball downfield to often and loweered our target/Rec % but any way you slice it we need more consistency from our O and less incompletes/INTs

 

Yeah, I completely agree about Davis's reception numbers.   They are completely puzzling to me, but I don't think they necessarily mean what we think they mean.   Someone would have to take a deep dive into the film to understand it. 

 

Purely anecdotally, I remember that Davis had more drops on easily catchable balls than I thought he should.  I also remember Allen making some desperation throws to him that were targets, yes, but not very catchable balls.  

 

I've seen enough of him to know that he can be a very reliable receiver catching catchable balls.   He seemed to do that less well last season.  

 

But these are stats that the Bills have analyzed already and to the extent any underperformance exists, adjustments have been developed and will be installed in the coming months.   That's what the coaches do this time of year.  And that's why it's up Dorsey.   Diggs is great and Davis is a very good number 2; the job is to get them open and to give Allen time to get the ball to them.   They have talented guys in the slot.   They have talented running backs.  They have an all-world quarterback.   Upgrades in skill position talent are always nice, but they don't need any upgrades beyond where they are right now (barring Injuries) to be a top-5 offense once again in 2023.   They need an offensive line and an appropriately creative offensive coordinator.  

[Einstein]

20 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I honestly have not followed this guy much so I’m not gonna act like I know anything about him

 

What I do know is this I’m a big fan of poaching free agents off of teams at positions of their strength

 

Even if a player is the third wide receiver on their team if they have superstars in front of them, that doesn’t mean that that third player is a bad player might actually be a very good player

 

He has speed and size plays special teams

and blocks for the run seems like a Buffalo Bill

 

The Bills will be his 4th team in 6 seasons.

 

This is not a situation of poaching an unheralded good WR off of a stud-filled team.

 

This is a situation of being another stop in a journeymen's journey.

 

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

adjustments have been developed and will be installed in the coming months. 

 

Those adjustments should have been made during the season. When it actually counts.

 

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Diggs is great and Davis is a very good number 2

Davis is barely an average #3. Let alone a "very good" #2.

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Einstein

[NewEra]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I completely agree about Davis's reception numbers.   They are completely puzzling to me, but I don't think they necessarily mean what we think they mean.   Someone would have to take a deep dive into the film to understand it. 

 

Purely anecdotally, I remember that Davis had more drops on easily catchable balls than I thought he should.  I also remember Allen making some desperation throws to him that were targets, yes, but not very catchable balls.  

 

I've seen enough of him to know that he can be a very reliable receiver catching catchable balls.   He seemed to do that less well last season.  

 

But these are stats that the Bills have analyzed already and to the extent any underperformance exists, adjustments have been developed and will be installed in the coming months.   That's what the coaches do this time of year.  And that's why it's up Dorsey.   Diggs is great and Davis is a very good number 2; the job is to get them open and to give Allen time to get the ball to them.   They have talented guys in the slot.   They have talented running backs.  They have an all-world quarterback.   Upgrades in skill position talent are always nice, but they don't need any upgrades beyond where they are right now (barring Injuries) to be a top-5 offense once again in 2023.   They need an offensive line and an appropriately creative offensive coordinator.  

Good post- I agree. I don’t think that we “need” a star WR2.  I think it could help- and if we traded for a Hopkins- jeudy or signed OBj I’d be really fired up about it.  The only cons to the move is future cap.  That’s the main con to adding any star player.  
 

Especially agree with the last sentence.  Gabe would be better with a better OL because Josh would be better.  Same goes for play calling.  Other than injuries, I thought OL and Dorsey (along with Frazier) were the main reasons our season ended how it did. 
 

give me a tackle in Rd 1 and Avila or Schmitz in round 2 and I’d be very happy.  

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

give me a tackle in Rd 1 and Avila or Schmitz in round 2 and I’d be very happy.  

I don't follow the draft until it actually happens, and I don't even know who Avila and Schmitz are.  I had to look them up. 

 

I'm all on board with this.  I've never been a huge Morse fan, and his days are numbered, so let's get someone solid there.   And a tackle.  Or a premier guard, but tackle is the greater need.  

 

 

[NewEra]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I don't follow the draft until it actually happens, and I don't even know who Avila and Schmitz are.  I had to look them up. 

 

I'm all on board with this.  I've never been a huge Morse fan, and his days are numbered, so let's get someone solid there.   And a tackle.  Or a premier guard, but tackle is the greater need.  

 

 

Yeah i think it’s tough to say which is more important because there are many variables;  potential Morse retirement, potential Spencer Brown improvement;  potential bates improvement/regression.  Dawkins future.  
 

as of now, I’d agree, OT more important because Brown needs to be challenged (at least).   I’d draft the tackle first, taking into consideration the prospects in the draft. I think I’d go Broderick Jones= Darnell Wright >Anton Harrison in that order.  There aren’t any IOL worth 27 imo.  

[Shaw66]

58 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Those adjustments should have been made during the season. When it actually counts.

 

 

 

 

I couldn't agree more about the adjustments.   I simply do not think that Dorsey had a very good year.   It was as though he came out of the gate with Daboll's offense and then didn't know what to do with it as defenses around the league adjusted, not just to the Bills but to all the good passing teams.  

 

In my view, either Dorsey needed a rookie year in the job or he just isn't good enough to do the job.   He got the running game going a bit later in the season, but that too was something Daboll did.  

 

That's why I've been saying over and over - Oline and Dorsey. 

 

As for that video, it's actually not as bad as I feared.  There are maybe 15 plays in there, and three of the drops were excellent plays by defenders knocking the ball out of Davis's hands as it arrived.   I can look at those, and Davis can too, and say "should have had it," but the reality is that those are tough catches.  They beg other questions, like what kind of route leaves him so covered, why is Allen throwing to him instead of someone else, etc.  In fact, on some, Davis is double covered.   

 

Then there's one that was an Allen express and Davis was a split second late on it.  We've seen everyone, including Diggs, miss those occasionally.  The last replay on the video is a ball where Allen led him too far - as the ball is going through his outstretched hands, Davis's foot is about to step out of bounds.  

 

As I said before, I think all the detailed data can be misleading.

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah i think it’s tough to say which is more important because there are many variables;  potential Morse retirement, potential Spencer Brown improvement;  potential bates improvement/regression.  Dawkins future.  
 

as of now, I’d agree, OT more important because Brown needs to be challenged (at least).   I’d draft the tackle first, taking into consideration the prospects in the draft. I think I’d go Broderick Jones= Darnell Wright >Anton Harrison in that order.  There aren’t any IOL worth 27 imo.  

Thanks.  As I said, I don't know any of these guys, but it's good to know that there are oline prospects worth taking in the first round.  Im my perfect world, I wouldn't mind a tackle at 27 and a trade up in the second to take a center.   One think about taking someone to replace Morse is that he perhaps could displace Bates in his rookie season, let him play beside Morse for a year and eventually move over.   Two birds with one stone. 

[Einstein]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I couldn't agree more about the adjustments.   I simply do not think that Dorsey had a very good year.   It was as though he came out of the gate with Daboll's offense and then didn't know what to do with it as defenses around the league adjusted, not just to the Bills but to all the good passing teams.  

 

In my view, either Dorsey needed a rookie year in the job or he just isn't good enough to do the job.   He got the running game going a bit later in the season, but that too was something Daboll did.  

 

That's why I've been saying over and over - Oline and Dorsey. 

 

As for that video, it's actually not as bad as I feared.  There are maybe 15 plays in there, and three of the drops were excellent plays by defenders knocking the ball out of Davis's hands as it arrived.   I can look at those, and Davis can too, and say "should have had it," but the reality is that those are tough catches.  They beg other questions, like what kind of route leaves him so covered, why is Allen throwing to him instead of someone else, etc.  In fact, on some, Davis is double covered.   

 

Then there's one that was an Allen express and Davis was a split second late on it.  We've seen everyone, including Diggs, miss those occasionally.  The last replay on the video is a ball where Allen led him too far - as the ball is going through his outstretched hands, Davis's foot is about to step out of bounds.  

 

As I said before, I think all the detailed data can be misleading.

Thanks.  As I said, I don't know any of these guys, but it's good to know that there are oline prospects worth taking in the first round.  Im my perfect world, I wouldn't mind a tackle at 27 and a trade up in the second to take a center.   One think about taking someone to replace Morse is that he perhaps could displace Bates in his rookie season, let him play beside Morse for a year and eventually move over.   Two birds with one stone. 

 

You're such a gentlemen. We need more posters like you.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You're such a gentlemen. We need more posters like you.

Did I fall asleep and just wake up on April1?

[1ManRaid]

On 3/21/2023 at 8:35 AM, dje85 said:

I doubt that since one of those players was such a personality off the field he was best buds with a Korean dictator. 

 

Ok I didn't pick the best example but my point more or less stands.  See if anyone can name the OTHER two starters lol.

Edited March 25, 2023 by 1ManRaid

[Warcodered]

 

[John from Riverside]

7 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

We haven’t had that kind of run blocking since Robert woods

[Orlando Tim]

I have students who love the dolphins and they told me that Sherfield is most effective against zone defenses, that he has more issues against Man coverage. If true could he be the new Cole Beasley? The guy who sits in the hole in the zone and gets 7 yards? I want to be excited but don't see him being better than lil Dirty at this moment. 

[bearcat]

I guess you could say dirty was better against man. Running away from the coverage. Didn't do very well with finding the soft spot in zone and getting open for Allen. Hopefully this helps with moving the chains.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

I have students who love the dolphins and they told me that Sherfield is most effective against zone defenses, that he has more issues against Man coverage. If true could he be the new Cole Beasley? The guy who sits in the hole in the zone and gets 7 yards? I want to be excited but don't see him being better than lil Dirty at this moment. 

 

I would think that against man coverage, Waddle and Hill would laugh and say “Feed Me!”