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Gabe Davis caught an abysmal 51.6% of his 93 targets this year. Update: High% off target


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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:


I'm in favor of the "let's not make Gabe Davis our new whipping boy" theme.  I would agree in general, the routes he was asked to run/throws Josh made didn't do Gabe any favors. 


That said, I think your understanding of what constitutes a scored "drop" and how to calculate "flat out misses by the QB" are both incomplete.


A "drop" is pretty much defined as a throw that a competent receiver should be able to make easily.  Basically, the ball hits the WR in a frame between the head and the hips and maybe a forearm length to the side, no more


There are plenty of throws that a good NFL-quality WR is expected to be able to haul in, that are not scored as "drops".


That is not to say that a number of the throws in Gabe's direction were not off-target (not necessarily misses, but thrown over Gabe, possibly because he was held or didn't run as fast as Josh expected, possibly poor throws.


Data on how many throws were "catchable" vs. "throw aways" or so far off target there was no chance, are out there.  However, you can not determine what that number is, by simply subtracting his catches + drops from his targets, and saying the rest were "flat out misses by Josh"


That's simply not correct.


There's also a point that while his catch % was a career low and his drop % a career high this season, he ran about 55% his previous 2 years, when Josh was not throwing as many deep bombs and when elbow injury/accuracy were not believed to be factors.  That's not good, for a #2.



Even as I say this I will explain I do think he had some issues with not making some catches I would have liked to seen him make.  That said the guys average depth of target was around 6 yards deeper than other #2 receivers.  It doesn't excuse everything but it certainly does explain both how his production can be somewhat manic and also why he has more TD's than most #2 receivers you'll see.

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