My draft recap and random thoughts.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I apologize most sincerely if I missed a careful and thoughtfull 1,000 word kind of response.  I admit the search engine here isn't "all that", but I did bring up your posting history and look carefully for a response to where I previously asked this question before I asked it again.  Then I searched.

 

Clearly I missed your response, which is "me bad", but I did make a good faith effort, so might you be so kind as to link me to this response? (Doesn't matter if it was to me or someone else, though the latter might have kept me from finding it)

 

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so.  I think CB is a premium position worthy of a late-first-round pick, and I think it's entirely possible that while Elam filled a need, he was also legitimately someone who the Bills saw as BPA at that position.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Thanks!  Appreciate it!  Will read carefully.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so. 

 

 

Yeah, sure........but what would you have done?

 

 "I don't have a problem with......" isn't really an answer to that......it's an evasive measure from someone who is so often perturbed by any perceived vagueness.    

[BADOLBILZ]

20 hours ago, NewEra said:

There’s no reason for him to say he’s going all in.  
 

He knows how close this team was last year and he’s being proactive and continuing to improve the team the best he can.  I’d say he’s doing a great job.  If it weren’t for an all time coaching debacle, we may have had ourselves a Lombardi.  It’s all on McD and co now. 

 

 

There is no reason to say it or agree to the suggestion.........but he's pretty determined to squash the notion to the fanbase.

 

Beane is very good at not saying things that compromise his relationship/leverage with players or agents or other teams.

 

But it is a different story with his public perception.

 

The other day he started a thought with "I don't lie".  

 

That's hysterical..........every other time his lips move it's a form of manipulation of truth.

 

Dude is a true shyster on the mic and as I've said many times..........that was exactly what the Pegula's needed in a GM.........his confidence man persona keeps their hands off the controls.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah, sure........but what would you have done?

 

 "I don't have a problem with......" isn't really an answer to that......it's an evasive measure from someone who is so often perturbed by any perceived vagueness.    

 

I believe I gave a reasonable answer.  You can disagree with that assessment.

 

You're the one who has a sweeping philosophical disagreement with the draft day decisions, overall strategy, and roster management of the Bills FO.

 

 

[In Summary]

Bernard is the manifestation of McDermott's vision of a 2022 NFL defense.  He's not going to put out a LB that isn't viable in coverage.  LB's not integral to pass rush.  Just my opinion.

Edited May 4, 2022 by In Summary

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the clock, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

 

 

2019 DK Metcalf would have been the right choice in hindsight.    He's been a star since day 1.

 

Knowing what teams know today of the value of WR's...........Metcalf and AJ Brown definitely go round 1 and in hindsight Terry McLaurin as well.    The Oliver pick made sense despite being very undersized because it was presumed that he'd quickly turn into an elite interior pass rusher.   He has gradually gone form a solid player to very good one........but still hasn't turned into a finisher.   He may finally become that guy in year 4.    Undersized 3 Techs are not in short supply though so if you take one early you would hope that they produce big.  

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

The easiest way to create cap space is to restructure Tre and/or Dion.  That would easily give the Bills enough space to get through the season.

 

They are both options too. I'd feel safer restructuring Tre even off the ACL than Dion. His struggles in the last year controlling is weight (which started before he had covid) would make me wary. I'd want to retain some flexibility there just in case. 

[GunnerBill]

One thing that was said to me last night which made me reflect on Bernard was whether actually this might be a second of the tweaks that they are going to give effect to on defense - maybe they want to play more 4-3 base? 

 

We know that tweak one is they want to be able to play more press on the outside. That doesn't mean they are going to play lots of man, they will still primarily be a zone defense but they want to be able to get more aggressive with their corners at the line. Beane admitted himself in his interview on H&J yesterday that they didn't feel comfortable doing that much with Dane and Levi. Their defense has primarily been to press Tre, force the QB to go away from that side and throw the safe completion short to Levi's side where he plays off and then comes up and tackles for a short gain. This now allows them the flexibility to even press on both sides simultaneously in some situations. 

 

Maybe tweak two is they want to play a bit more 4-3?. I think they are still going to be in nickel a lot but I think last year they were 100% in nickel or dime looks for like 14 of the 17 games. Maybe they want to mix that up a bit more in 2022? Edmunds would play MIKE, Milano likely SAM and let Bernard play WILL. If they feel like having upgrades on the Dline will force the ball out more quickly and lessen the need for 5 DBs in coverage maybe that's a route they go. Not as their base defense but as a change up? Just a thought. If that is the case it makes more sense to me that they prioritised a LB over a OL that might be a backup as a rookie. Dunno, just spitballing. But interesting to consider I think. 

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

On 5/3/2022 at 8:14 AM, Dr. Who said:

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

Very interesting post.

 

As a life long Alabama Fan, I respectfully disagree with the bold, and I'll tell you why.....

 

The 2021 college football season was a strange one. Almost every team (UGA being an obvious exception) had a dropoff in talent. Think about it, Cinn. was actually a playoff team (although they of course were promptly slaughtered). This draft, for lack of a better word, sucked. For example, Alabama had only 7 players drafted. 7 players!!! In 2021 they had 6 players drafted in the first round alone, along with 2 in the second. My point? I think that both Davonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will have better NFL careers than Williams. Now, obviously this is not an all knowing proclamation. It is just a prediction/opinion from a fan who has seen every play of Smith and Waddle's college careers (and all of JW's in his time in Tuscaloosa). 

 

I was actually hoping that the Bills would trade down to acquire more picks in 2022, and use this draft to pick up receivers and guards (if no tackles were available) but alas; we traded UP for a first round zone corner, proving that we are still the Bills lol.

 

But as @BADOLBILZ says all the time, this is entertainment. I am not going to get crazy over this draft, and tbh, I expected nothing less. 

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited May 4, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

One thing that was said to me last night which made me reflect on Bernard was whether actually this might be a second of the tweaks that they are going to give effect to on defense - maybe they want to play more 4-3 base? 

 

We know that tweak one is they want to be able to play more press on the outside. That doesn't mean they are going to play lots of man, they will still primarily be a zone defense but they want to be able to get more aggressive with their corners at the line. Beane admitted himself in his interview on H&J yesterday that they didn't feel comfortable doing that much with Dane and Levi. Their defense has primarily been to press Tre, force the QB to go away from that side and throw the safe completion short to Levi's side where he plays off and then comes up and tackles for a short gain. This now allows them the flexibility to even press on both sides simultaneously in some situations. 

 

Maybe tweak two is they want to play a bit more 4-3?. I think they are still going to be in nickel a lot but I think last year they were 100% in nickel or dime looks for like 14 of the 17 games. Maybe they want to mix that up a bit more in 2022? Edmunds would play MIKE, Milano likely SAM and let Bernard play WILL. If they feel like having upgrades on the Dline will force the ball out more quickly and lessen the need for 5 DBs in coverage maybe that's a route they go. Not as their base defense but as a change up? Just a thought. If that is the case it makes more sense to me that they prioritised a LB over a OL that might be a backup as a rookie. Dunno, just spitballing. But interesting to consider I think. 

 

 

 

 

It's the best way to explain their tunnel vision on getting a press-man cornerback and really the only explanation for the Bernard pick, IMO.

 

My one oft-vocalized complaint about the defense under McDermott has been that for all of the investments they've made in defensive personnel........and all of the continuity they have had in the back 7............they haven't been able to make broad schematic adjustments for different opponents.

 

Against KC the Bills have sort of fallen into the rut that Pittsburgh had against New England for so many years...........the Steelers lack of ability to mix man coverages with their preferred zone looks made them easy pickings for Brady.

 

I'm sure the Bills were very aware that it was a weakness but the way Cinci adapted their defense to win two road games and reach the Super Bowl probably underscored the value in that.

 

The question, of course, is whether they are robbing Peter on offense to pay Paul on defense.       

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Very interesting post.

 

As a life long Alabama Fan, I respectfully disagree with the bold, and I'll tell you why.....

 

The 2021 college football season was a strange one. Almost every team (UGA being an obvious exception) had a dropoff in talent. Think about it, Cinn. was actually a playoff team (although they of course were promptly slaughtered). This draft, for lack of a better word, sucked. For example, Alabama had only 7 players drafted. 7 players!!! In 2021 they had 6 players drafted in the first round alone, along with 2 in the second. My point? I think that both Davonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will have better NFL careers than Williams. Now, obviously this is not an all knowing proclamation. It is just a prediction/opinion from a fan who has seen every play of Smith and Waddle's college careers (and all of JW's in his time in Tuscaloosa). 

 

I was actually hoping that the Bills would trade down to acquire more picks in 2022, and use this drat to pick up receivers and guards (if no tackles were available) but alas; we traded UP for a first round zone corner, proving that we are still the Bills lol.

 

But as @BADOLBILZ says all the time, this is entertainment. I am not going to get crazy over this draft, and tbh, I expected nothing less. 

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Of course, now that things have played out the way they have, I rather selfishly hope you are right. It's a reasonable take.

Oh, and as a Dawgs fan, it was almost a relief, though also gratifying, to finally get past Nick Saban. I was a young man when we won with Herschel. How time flies . . . 

[Solomon Grundy]

On 5/1/2022 at 12:24 PM, NewEra said:

. Some saw him as a 3rd value….which is basically where we drafted him.  He wasn’t going to be there in rd 3 for us, so we got him where we had to get him

I have to ask @NewEra, why was it a mistake to draft Breece Hall with the 25th pick knowing that he wasn't going to be there at 57 but it's okay to draft Cook a whole round early? If Beane only had 15 1st rd graded players, by the time the Bills chose they were looking at 2nd rd graded players anyway. I always felt that Levi was a weak link on the back end and the Bills needed an upgrade. I just felt that with Hall the Bills were getting a Cook/upgraded Motor in one. 

[Solomon Grundy]

On 5/3/2022 at 8:20 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I do get that. And I think that happens when you draft late in rounds..... especially in years where the Quarterbacks don't go. Before we went on the clock on Thursday night the top 4 tackles, top 2 guards and top 6 receivers were all off the board. Corner was the right pick at that point and so long as they took whichever of the ceiling guys they were higher on (I was higher on Booth but obviously injury flags and Gordon, but they were higher on Elam) then I am on board. 

@GunnerBill, what were your thoughts on Coby Bryant? He was the Jim Thorpe award winner. His measurables are complimentary to Elam and got a lot of work in college because teams didn't throw at Sauce. 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I have to ask @NewEra, why was it a mistake to draft Breece Hall with the 25th pick knowing that he wasn't going to be there at 57 but it's okay to draft Cook a whole round early? If Beane only had 15 1st rd graded players, by the time the Bills chose they were looking at 2nd rd graded players anyway. I always felt that Levi was a weak link on the back end and the Bills needed an upgrade. I just felt that with Hall the Bills were getting a Cook/upgraded Motor in one. 

Because rb wasn’t the only need.  It wasn’t the biggest need.  They CLEARLY used this draft for current need. In your opinion, rb was the biggest need. Most people, viewed CB as our biggest need AND is a premium position.  It was a no brainer.  Hall was plan B.  He was never plan A.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Because rb wasn’t the only need.  It wasn’t the biggest need.  They CLEARLY used this draft for current need. In your opinion, rb was the biggest need. Most people, viewed CB as our biggest need AND is a premium position.  It was a no brainer.  Hall was plan B.  He was never plan A.

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@GunnerBill, what were your thoughts on Coby Bryant? He was the Jim Thorpe award winner. His measurables are complimentary to Elam and got a lot of work in college because teams didn't throw at Sauce. 

 

Think he is a good player. Think his ceiling is #2 corner but he can be a very serviceable one.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

Couldn’t agree with you any more than I do.  

[Orlando Tim]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

The EJ Manuel comment is telling in that within 1 year no one remembers all the details around the pick, just was it a good one. Hopefully Cook makes us look smart

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

 

Dead right on the second round. They took a high 3rd round grade by their board. Sometimes at the end of rounds that is what you are faced with doing. If you are faced with doing that then you try and maximise your value by trading down. The Bills took two below trade value chart trade downs which I think shows you they didn't think they had a guy sticking out and they were just trying to get whatever they could before making a pick. Beane said on H&J the other morning they had "3 or 4 guys they were comfortable with" and that after the first trade down all of them were still on the board but between the 2nd trade down and our eventual pick one went. That means one of Cam Taylor-Britt, Drake Jackson and Bryan Cook was in the mix for them. I suspect that was Cook based on their consistent interest in safeties during this draft season. Not saying Bryan Cook was higher than James Cook on their board, just that he was one of their guys in the mix and once that group of 3 or 4 guys started to be raided then Beane decided to stand pat and make the pick. 

 

I think Buddy only traded down once for EJ. #8 to #16 as a I recall it. And he got a 2nd round pick out of it I think.