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Todd McShay’s latest 2 round mock draft!


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On 4/11/2022 at 11:50 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you use a second round pick on a player I think it should be a GIVEN that you will want to re-sign the guy if he plays well.

 

I wonder what % of people that want to draft a RB are thinking that player will be worthy of a big second contract?

 

I suspect it's low.......nobody wants to pay RB's anymore.

 

A second round pick is still one of your best shots to find an organizational difference maker.........the vast majority of pro bowlers come from rounds 1 and 2.

 

So a second rounder shouldn't be used on players that you plan from the get-go to use up and throw away........which basically describes all but the most unique RB's. 


I think this is generally true, but when in a SB window a 3 down RB pick in the late 2nd that helps for 3-4 years is not wasted, IMO

Edited by RyanC883
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56 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

My point was I'm hoping they draft like they will fill the CB spot in FA.  Steve Nelson was the example someone else provided who thought we wouldn't start w Nelson and Jackson.

 

So, with reduced urgency would you then rather have C Watson over Booth?

 

Because when you say reduced urgency you are really just factoring out the short term need.

 

No, I think I would still favor Booth over Watson because I think Booth is a better player.  Others may like Watson over Booth - I acknowledge that those two are close.  But if they reduced the urgency by having a viable vet on the roster before the draft, I could understand picking a player at a position other than corner if that other position is as important as corner and if that other player is better than the available corners.


I have no inside information, but it could be that they are looking to trade a vet on the roster (Epenesa?) for a corner.  I’m thinking like the deal where the Bills traded a LB who had fallen out of favor here (Kelvin Sheppard) for Jerry Hughes whom the Colts had kind of given up on.

 

42 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:


I think this is generally true, but when in a SB window a 3 down RB pick in the late 2nd that helps for 3-4 years is not wasted, IMO

I think that your argument has some merit, I just don’t think that Breece Hall or Kenny Walker are anything special.  They are decent prospects, but I don’t think they would make that much impact over what Singletary does - I would rather bolster the OL than pick a RB in the 2nd.

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5 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think the plan remains to address CB2 with a vet.  I think the plan was always a CB2 vet on a team friendly deal, not vet CB at all costs.  They never planned to be a big player, big spender, at CB2 (that was reserved for pass rusher).  So by being a secondary player in the market you should not have expected someone right off the bat.  Unusual circumstances have the acquisition delayed a little longer than in the past.

 

Steve Nelson is not coming in as depth.  You aren't seriously thinking Booth would start over him are you?  I would pencil him in as the starter.  Same for Rhodes/Callahan/King/Haden/Fuller/Gilmore/maybe Sherman.

 

So let me get this straight - you think it was "always the plan" to start whoever was left over at the end of FA and willing to sign for whatever pocket change we have left over? To address all these other positions, but when it comes to starting Outside CB - we'll just take whoever is best when the carousel stops spinning months later?

 

We're about two weeks from the Draft, haven't made a move, and let Levi walk when we could have easily gotten that done. And the fact that he was scooped up immediately while all these others (sans Gilmore who is looking to get PAID) are still floating out there speak volumes about what the league thinks of them. This obviously speaks to looking for an upgrade in talent, cost controlled. The only way you do that is to Draft one high. 

 

As for your absolute shock and horror that a Rookie could start at CB.... every single 1st Round Rookie started at CB last season. When we drafted Tre White in 2017 at pick 27, we started him right away. If you're taken in the 1st Round, you're way more often than not expected to start right away.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think we will sign a vet. But it will be a guy who can start along the 1st Round Rookie when Tre is out and cycle on off the bench when Tre returns. You've gotta step off the fence when it comes to "we can't start a Rookie CB!". When you take one in the First Round, they start. Unless something really unexpected happens. Guys in the 1st Round are taken there because they're ready. Bring in a guy for insurance, of course.  

 

But you would absolutely start Booth over even Nelson. Unless something unexpected or catastrophic happened. Keep in mind, Nelson was a healthy scratch for the Eagles down the stretch. Not the sure fire stud you think he is. Haden and Sherman are ancient and need to have controlled reps to keep them sharp. Gilmore isn't happening. He's only on the market still because he's asking for TOP money. We can only afford a few million max. Callahan, King, Fuller aren't going to put a 1st Rounder on the bench.

Edited by BillsFanForever19
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I would be fine with Walker as our 2nd rounder even though we have bigger needs to fill. A dynamic running back with elite speed could give our offense more balance and keep opposing safeties honest. Singletary and Moss are solid, but we need to add a home-run hitter to the backfield.

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5 hours ago, RyanC883 said:


I think this is generally true, but when in a SB window a 3 down RB pick in the late 2nd that helps for 3-4 years is not wasted, IMO

 

I still disagree...........the concept is that the early picks should be players with the potential to be organizational difference makers..........RB's don't really apply if only because math says handing the ball off is intentionally limiting your offense.

 

Even best per-play production of the best RB is still much less than the average per play production of a pass thrown by an average QB.

 

I know people want the best players everywhere but taking the ball out of Josh Allen's hands and giving extra touches even to the best back is bad math...........even in a career season like Taylor had last year.    

 

Add in the fact that you can always find RB's on day 3 or in free agency and even off the street in mid-season that are capable of stepping right in and playing well behind a solid OL with a franchise QB.

 

It's a careless use of a valuable commodity.    

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On 4/12/2022 at 12:20 PM, eball said:

Ok, I know I said I wouldn’t post in here any more, but I found this site interesting.  It’s a ranking of 181 1st round mock drafts from last year (and you can go back as far as 2018) using a pretty intricate grading system that is extremely lenient towards the “mocker.”  It awards a range of points in four categories, resulting in a total of 320 possible points.

 

Using a point system that rewards “being close” the best mocker last year still scored only 207 (65%) and there were just three guys who broke 200.  #181 scored 114.  The average was 152.6 and the median was 151; both under 50%.  “Star” mocker McShay was at least above average with 168; Kiper was at 153.  John Clayton (RIP) scored 129; a solid tie for 159th place.

 

Of the four years of rankings available, 2021 was the most successful overall for the mockers.

 

@GunnerBill I’d love to see you go back and score your draft using this methodology.  I respect all of the scouting work you do and I’m curious.

 

 

 

I scored 148 in 2021, good enough for 103rd on that table @eball. Interestingly I scored 76 points on position rank which would have had me in the top 25 or so of that particular category (ie. within each position group predicting what order guys would go). Even at the end of my mock I was nailing that when generally you tend to find rankings get more jumbled.... Rousseau as the 4th defensive end off the board, Elijah Moore as the 6th wide receiver, Mack Jones as the 5th Quarterback etc... 

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19 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

So let me get this straight - you think it was "always the plan" to start whoever was left over at the end of FA and willing to sign for whatever pocket change we have left over? To address all these other positions, but when it comes to starting Outside CB - we'll just take whoever is best when the carousel stops spinning months later?

 

We're about two weeks from the Draft, haven't made a move, and let Levi walk when we could have easily gotten that done. And the fact that he was scooped up immediately while all these others (sans Gilmore who is looking to get PAID) are still floating out there speak volumes about what the league thinks of them. This obviously speaks to looking for an upgrade in talent, cost controlled. The only way you do that is to Draft one high. 

 

As for your absolute shock and horror that a Rookie could start at CB.... every single 1st Round Rookie started at CB last season. When we drafted Tre White in 2017 at pick 27, we started him right away. If you're taken in the 1st Round, you're way more often than not expected to start right away.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think we will sign a vet. But it will be a guy who can start along the 1st Round Rookie when Tre is out and cycle on off the bench when Tre returns. You've gotta step off the fence when it comes to "we can't start a Rookie CB!". When you take one in the First Round, they start. Unless something really unexpected happens. Guys in the 1st Round are taken there because they're ready. Bring in a guy for insurance, of course.  

 

But you would absolutely start Booth over even Nelson. Unless something unexpected or catastrophic happened. Keep in mind, Nelson was a healthy scratch for the Eagles down the stretch. Not the sure fire stud you think he is. Haden and Sherman are ancient and need to have controlled reps to keep them sharp. Gilmore isn't happening. He's only on the market still because he's asking for TOP money. We can only afford a few million max. Callahan, King, Fuller aren't going to put a 1st Rounder on the bench.

I think the plan was to fill holes in FA and then draft BPA. This year they seem to have modified it, and are letting CB2 and WR3 play out in the draft before putting the finishing touches.

 

I don't like the idea of a rookie starting day1 next season  -and no, not every 1st round CB started day 1 last year.

 

Fuller would certainly be starting over Booth.  And I think we have a decent amount of cash to put into the CB, they just redid Diggs.

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On 4/12/2022 at 10:28 AM, Einstein's Dog said:

 

Steve Nelson is not coming in as depth.  You aren't seriously thinking Booth would start over him are you?  I would pencil him in as the starter.  Same for Rhodes/Callahan/King/Haden/Fuller/Gilmore/maybe Sherman.

 

 

 

Steven Nelson isn’t coming in at all - he is signing with Houston.

Edited by OldTimer1960
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55 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Steven Nelson isn’t coming in at all - he is signing with Houston.

Beane better know what he's doing.  I want a vet CB better than Wallace- and Nelson was one of them.

 

Still has options  Fuller/Gilmore/Rhodes/Callahan/King along with a trade for Bradberry to get this done.

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9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Beane better know what he's doing.  I want a vet CB better than Wallace- and Nelson was one of them.

 

Still has options  Fuller/Gilmore/Rhodes/Callahan/King along with a trade for Bradberry to get this done.

I think they're just waiting the Giants out on Bradberry.

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On 4/11/2022 at 3:35 AM, thenorthremembers said:

Id love Walker in the 2nd but dont think he'll make it to our spot.  

Have you considered prayer? Or it's possible, Beane trades up if he loves the guy. However, Beane's love for slow, short running backs is slightly concerning

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On 4/12/2022 at 10:38 AM, OldTimer1960 said:

No, I think I would still favor Booth over Watson because I think Booth is a better player.  Others may like Watson over Booth - I acknowledge that those two are close.  But if they reduced the urgency by having a viable vet on the roster before the draft, I could understand picking a player at a position other than corner if that other position is as important as corner and if that other player is better than the available corners.


I have no inside information, but it could be that they are looking to trade a vet on the roster (Epenesa?) for a corner.  I’m thinking like the deal where the Bills traded a LB who had fallen out of favor here (Kelvin Sheppard) for Jerry Hughes whom the Colts had kind of given up on.

 

I think that your argument has some merit, I just don’t think that Breece Hall or Kenny Walker are anything special.  They are decent prospects, but I don’t think they would make that much impact over what Singletary does - I would rather bolster the OL than pick a RB in the 2nd.

IMO, Booth would start right away. he is far superior to Dane Jackson. Watson would spend a lot of time watching the game from the sidelines. This is the year to win it all. But I respect those who differ. My Dad  and my brother coached and I'm a damn teacher, so what do I know?🙈

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21 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Beane better know what he's doing.  I want a vet CB better than Wallace- and Nelson was one of them.

 

Still has options  Fuller/Gilmore/Rhodes/Callahan/King along with a trade for Bradberry to get this done.

Are you talking about Desmond King?  I think he signed with Houston.  

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7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Are you talking about Desmond King?  I think he signed with Houston.  

No, I am talking about Kevin King, the 6'3" 200 rangy former 2nd round pick of GB.  Had 5 int's in 2019, but has been injury prone. He was ranked the  No 1 cornerback inside the 20 yd line by Pro Football Focus 7/14/2021.

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9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

No, I am talking about Kevin King, the 6'3" 200 rangy former 2nd round pick of GB.  Had 5 int's in 2019, but has been injury prone. He was ranked the  No 1 cornerback inside the 20 yd line by Pro Football Focus 7/14/2021.

He might be talked into an inexpensive contract due to his injury history.  Doesn’t look like he played a full season since 2019 - and before that looks like a bunch of injury time, too.  He looks like damaged goods, but his pedigree is interesting.  I would not say that they have solved their CB problem if they sign Kevin King because of his injury history.

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8 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think the plan was to fill holes in FA and then draft BPA. This year they seem to have modified it, and are letting CB2 and WR3 play out in the draft before putting the finishing touches.

 

I don't like the idea of a rookie starting day1 next season  -and no, not every 1st round CB started day 1 last year.

 

Fuller would certainly be starting over Booth.  And I think we have a decent amount of cash to put into the CB, they just redid Diggs.

 

You're right. In the case of Eric Stokes and Patrick Surtain II, it took a whole full week or two. But every single one was starting within the first few weeks of the season and ended the season as a starter and is listed as a starting Cornerback on their teams depth chart this season. And it's funny you should mention, Kyle Fuller. From just last season:

 

Quote

Due to poor play, Fuller did not appear in the Broncos’ week 8 matchup against Washington, after losing possible playing time in previous weeks to Nate Hairston and Patrick Surtain II.

 

That's right, Fuller was playing so bad last season, they added his reps to a 1st Round Rookie CB *gasp* These guys you're mentioning are still on the market for a reason. You absolutely would not start Fuller over Booth. Even if you did, it wouldn't be more than a week or two before Booth took over.

 

And as for the "lot of cash" from the Diggs signing, it freed up 6.1 million. Add in where we were prior, plus another 1 million or so in savings from the Ryan Bates signing (in relation to the tender he was on) - it put us at approximately 8.3 under the cap.

 

Then we signed Bobby Hart. Factor in the 3 or so we need for Draft Picks - we'll be about 4.5 million or so under the cap. We'll be able to get a bargain, but it's not the "lot of cash" you were suggesting and certainly not enough for a Gilmore level signing. Especially when you consider Beane (like most GMs) don't like to go into the season at 0.

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