Today's Locked On Bills podcast - listen to it

[ProcessTruster]

Lots of bad blood re: Edmunds and Star on this board.   Today's "locked on Bills" podcast has Joe Marino joined by BruceNolan talking Bills defense ; so much value there I won't repeat it all here.  Marino is big on stats, Nolan is smart and has good takes.  Listen to today (Monday).   Some smart thinking here that will add a lot to this discussion.  For tech phobs out there, just get Stitcher for your phone and search for "Locked on Bills".    Not stumping for all of Marino or Nolan's stuff (some of their content is non football or stuff we already know), but this particular episode was excellent.   

Edited February 28, 2022 by ProcessTruster

[thenorthremembers]

Ill listen, I always do.  However, I know what to expect from Nolan.  He is a big Edmunds guy.  Marino is more level headed.   The truth about Edmunds is he is a average middle linebacker that really knows the system.   

 

So the Bills have a hard choice, pay a guy a lot of money who knows your system very well, is a team leader, who has average to above average play at times but is also a complete liability at others.   The Chiefs targeted him big time in yhis years playoffs.   Personally Id try and trade him for a piece on offense.

 

On Star, the team is better when he plays.   Problem is hes missed the better part of the last two seasons and 18 games of that were either his choice or personal reasons.  Its time to move on.

[ProcessTruster]

8 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Ill listen, I always do.  However, I know what to expect from Nolan.  He is a big Edmunds guy.  Marino is more level headed.   The truth about Edmunds is he is a average middle linebacker that really knows the system.   

 

So the Bills have a hard choice, pay a guy a lot of money who knows your system very well, is a team leader, who has average to above average play at times but is also a complete liability at others.   The Chiefs targeted him big time in yhis years playoffs.   Personally Id try and trade him for a piece on offense.

 

On Star, the team is better when he plays.   Problem is hes missed the better part of the last two seasons and 18 games of that were either his choice or personal reasons.  Its time to move on.

yeah, agree.  not stumping for either of them; just offer Edmunds a contract commensurate with his 1/11th role on the defense and leave it at that.  If someone offers him Leonard $$ to play the Darius Leonard "superman" dominator run/pass MLB role (which he probably cannot do) then let him take the $$ .   Just like Levi Wallace.   Wallace and Edmunds are just pieces in a scheme, not asked to be dominant (just do your job).   Star, as you say, is a tough one as releasing him will hit the cap hard... McBeanes gotta think on that one... is Star playing only 9 games per season better than taking a $20m (not sure of the #, its pretty big ) cap hit this year.  

[SoMAn]

7 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Ill listen, I always do.  However, I know what to expect from Nolan.  He is a big Edmunds guy.  Marino is more level headed.   The truth about Edmunds is he is a average middle linebacker that really knows the system.   

 

So the Bills have a hard choice, pay a guy a lot of money who knows your system very well, is a team leader, who has average to above average play at times but is also a complete liability at others.   The Chiefs targeted him big time in yhis years playoffs.   Personally Id try and trade him for a piece on offense.

 

On Star, the team is better when he plays.   Problem is hes missed the better part of the last two seasons and 18 games of that were either his choice or personal reasons.  Its time to move on.

What evidence is there that he's a team leader?

He's been tasked with relaying the defensive signals, which is more a product of his position in the middle of the defense than it is about his actual leadership.  I don't personally know Edmunds, but I've never gotten the sense that he's a leader.  When you watch Josh and see the interaction with his teammates, his body language and the reaction he gets screams 'leader'.  When Kyle Williams was on the team, you had no doubt he was a leader on defense. 

 

Some people are born leaders. Edmunds ain't one of them IMO.

 

[ProcessTruster]

25 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

What evidence is there that he's a team leader?

He's been tasked with relaying the defensive signals, which is more a product of his position in the middle of the defense than it is about his actual leadership.  I don't personally know Edmunds, but I've never gotten the sense that he's a leader.  When you watch Josh and see the interaction with his teammates, his body language and the reaction he gets screams 'leader'.  When Kyle Williams was on the team, you had no doubt he was a leader on defense. 

 

Some people are born leaders. Edmunds ain't one of them IMO.

 

agree.  Edmunds is, as Nolan points out in the podcast "Fine" in his role, but he is not essential. 

 

so don't pick up his 5th year option (saves $10m+ cap space at least), offer him Milano $$ (hey Milano took it, much to our surprise -- this primarily pass defense scheme  prolongs a LB's career, IMO) ,  play it out and be ready to plug Dodson or a FA in there if Edmunds walks. 

 

Edmunds position is not designed to be the centerpiece of this particular defensive scheme anyway (Keuchly was a unicorn).  Edmunds agent will stump for Leonard $$, but LBs in the Bills defensive scheme just play their part of the field; not asked to dominate so they get 1/11th type $$;

 

which means their agents probably get guys like Edmunds and Wallace overpaid by some other team to play a dominator role they probably cannot handle.   and Beane moves on with well scouted, productive, low cost draft choices and FAs doing just their 1/11th.  which works.  not as much fun for fans looking for splash plays to make the beers go down better, but whatever, it works.  and lasts.  

Edited February 28, 2022 by ProcessTruster

[SoMAn]

3 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

agree.  Edmunds is, as Nolan points out in the podcast "Fine" in his role, but he is not essential.  so don't pick up his 5th year option (saves $10m+ cap space at least), offer him Milano $$,  play it out and be ready to plug Dodson or a FA in there if Edmunds walks.  His position is not designed to be the centerpiece of this particular defensive scheme anyway.  Edmunds agent will stump for Leonard $$, but LBs in the Bills defensive scheme just play their part of the field; not asked to dominate so they get 1/11th type $$; which means guys like Edmunds and Wallace probably get overpaid by some other team to play a dominator role they probably cannot handle.  

His role has been explained as not being the seek and destroy middle linebacker as much as it is as a pass defender who can mess up passing lanes with his long wingspan.  I want to believe that Edmunds is as valuable as some seem to think.

I've re-watched entire games focusing on his play when the Bills' defense is on the field.  I don't see any great pass defender, but I do see a liability against the run. I see a guy running around aimlessly, misjudging where the ball is going, getting pushed around, and frequently standing around the ball carrier when someone else made the tackle.  Tell me all day about his pro bowls and what a great defender he is. For me, he doesn't pass the eye test.

His real NFL worth can be measured by what his trade value is. He was pick # 17 in the first round in 2018.  At 23 years old and with 4 years experience, has his value gone up or down? There's your answer.

[ProcessTruster]

5 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

His role has been explained as not being the seek and destroy middle linebacker as much as it is as a pass defender who can mess up passing lanes with his long wingspan.  I want to believe that Edmunds is as valuable as some seem to think.

I've re-watched entire games focusing on his play when the Bills' defense is on the field.  I don't see any great pass defender, but I do see a liability against the run. I see a guy running around aimlessly, misjudging where the ball is going, getting pushed around, and frequently standing around the ball carrier when someone else made the tackle.  Tell me all day about his pro bowls and what a great defender he is. For me, he doesn't pass the eye test.

His real NFL worth can be measured by what his trade value is. He was pick # 17 in the first round in 2018.  At 23 years old and with 4 years experience, has his value gone up or down? There's your answer.

yep, we are 'violently agreeing'... if Beane can trade him for good value now and they feel good enough about Dodson, then yep get value for him now.  he likely leaves in FA anyway as a team will top what Beane is willing to pay for him.  they got 4 years of decent play from him in this particular defensive scheme; he ain't no Thomas Davis or Luke Keuchly, so just plug another 1/11th in there and spend your cap passing and defending the pass.  yep.  which is pretty much where Nolan comes out .  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

What evidence is there that he's a team leader?

 

I heard an interview with Matakevich last season where he talked about Edmunds and how "it's his team" and how he leads during the week and on the field.  It wasn't a Bills interview, it was one of those external podcasts and he came across as sincere and un-scripted.  He was taking little pokes at some of the other guys - evidently Milano and Hyde are both fashionistas and spend a lot of time getting their "look" perfect before they leave the locker room.

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

What evidence is there that he's a team leader?

He's been tasked with relaying the defensive signals, which is more a product of his position in the middle of the defense than it is about his actual leadership.  I don't personally know Edmunds, but I've never gotten the sense that he's a leader.  When you watch Josh and see the interaction with his teammates, his body language and the reaction he gets screams 'leader'.  When Kyle Williams was on the team, you had no doubt he was a leader on defense. 

 

Some people are born leaders. Edmunds ain't one of them IMO.

 

I mean the team voted him captain.    It's also been well documented that he spearheads "player's only" meetings during the season.  For how bad his play is at times, he is for sure a team leader.  I dont think you can debate that.  Just because he isn't Josh or Kyle Williams, two of the best team leaders, I've ever seen on the Bills is 35 years of watching them, doenst mean he isnt a leader.   I say that as someone who would rather see the Bills move on from him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

so don't pick up his 5th year option (saves $10m+ cap space at least),

 

Dude, try to keep up.  The Bills picked up Edmunds 5th year option during the available window for that decision - last May

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/05/03/bills-exercise-josh-allen-tremaine-edmunds-fifth-year-options/

 

Bills already owe Edmunds $12.7M guaranteed salary for 2022

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

yep, we are 'violently agreeing'... if Beane can trade him for good value now and they feel good enough about Dodson, then yep get value for him now.  he likely leaves in FA anyway as a team will top what Beane is willing to pay for him.  they got 4 years of decent play from him in this particular defensive scheme; he ain't no Thomas Davis or Luke Keuchly, so just plug another 1/11th in there and spend your cap passing and defending the pass.  yep.  which is pretty much where Nolan comes out .  

 

The defense has not looked good when Dodson was playing MLB (pretty sure that was the first Mia game of 2020).  To be fair, he had Klein playing next to him so both starting LB were out.

 

If Edmunds is such a mediocre player, what team is going to give the Bills "good value" for a 1 yr rental of a guy with $12.7M guaranteed salary?

[Lagoon Blues]

How confident is anyone that even another cheaper 1/11th guy could be near equal.  Honestly nobody knows for sure and is just guessing based on opinion.  This team is in a win now window.  Just don't know how you upset the apple cart without a CLEAR upgrade.  Which I haven't seen any great examples of options.  This may not be the optimal perfect world situation but what is.

[BuffaloRebound]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The defense has not looked good when Dodson was playing MLB (pretty sure that was the first Mia game of 2020).  To be fair, he had Klein playing next to him so both starting LB were out.

 

If Edmunds is such a mediocre player, what team is going to give the Bills "good value" for a 1 yr rental of a guy with $12.7M guaranteed salary?

I think this is the only way it gets sorted out.  Give his agent permission to find a trade partner.  Either the Bills are totally mis-using him or he’ll find the market is weak for a LB who doesn’t rush the passer, is weak versus the run, and doesn’t make any plays against the passing game.  He’s big, fast, and drops into coverage well, but never makes any plays.  

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Why do you need a clear upgrade? In its last game the defense gave up over 500 yards of offense and 40 plus points with Edmunds playing 100% of the snaps… Let’s face it, the offense and Josh Allen carry this football team. Losing Edmunds will not negatively effect the W/L column at all IMO…. Especially when you can use that cap space to upgrade somewhere offensively. 

The world is near it's end............ I agree with Scott.

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Ill listen, I always do.  However, I know what to expect from Nolan.  He is a big Edmunds guy.  Marino is more level headed.   The truth about Edmunds is he is a average middle linebacker that really knows the system.   

 

So the Bills have a hard choice, pay a guy a lot of money who knows your system very well, is a team leader, who has average to above average play at times but is also a complete liability at others.   The Chiefs targeted him big time in yhis years playoffs.   Personally Id try and trade him for a piece on offense.

 

On Star, the team is better when he plays.   Problem is hes missed the better part of the last two seasons and 18 games of that were either his choice or personal reasons.  Its time to move on.

I don’t think he’s that big of an Edmunds guy. He calls him “fine”.

[BuffaloBillyG]

21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Why do you need a clear upgrade? In its last game the defense gave up over 500 yards of offense and 40 plus points with Edmunds playing 100% of the snaps… Let’s face it, the offense and Josh Allen carry this football team. Losing Edmunds will not negatively effect the W/L column at all IMO…. Especially when you can use that cap space to upgrade somewhere offensively. 

By that train of thought we should get rid of Hyde and Poyer as well. Big Ed and Milano played that game too? Right? They must be trash. Let's trade them. Phillips started? Well let's hope the Bills don't bring him back. We should get 11 new starters. 

 

Or are you asserting that all 500 yards and 40 points were surrendered by Edmunds and Edmunds alone in some weird Daniel Sorenson-esq type performance?

[BuffaloRebound]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

By that train of thought we should get rid of Hyde and Poyer as well. Big Ed and Milano played that game too? Right? They must be trash. Let's trade them. Phillips started? Well let's hope the Bills don't bring him back. We should get 11 new starters. 

 

Or are you asserting that all 500 yards and 40 points were surrendered by Edmunds and Edmunds alone in some weird Daniel Sorenson-esq type performance?

I think the argument is that you could still give up 500 yards and 40 points without committing another $12.7m to the defense especially to a guy who don’t make any big plays. You need guys on defense to make big plays (turnovers, sacks, TFL’s) in order to beat the better offenses.  See Hyde int vs Patriots.  That changed the entire game.  Everything else is kinda spinning your wheels and you might as well spend it on offense.  What good was having the #1 ranked defense vs the Chiefs the last 2 playoffs?  

[Lagoon Blues]

For everyone that wants to move on from him who do you go get?

[uticaclub]

2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

On Star, the team is better when he plays.  

Not true. 2020 was our best year and he didnt play

[Tanoros]

58 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Why do you need a clear upgrade? In its last game the defense gave up over 500 yards of offense and 40 plus points with Edmunds playing 100% of the snaps… Let’s face it, the offense and Josh Allen carry this football team. Losing Edmunds will not negatively effect the W/L column at all IMO…. Especially when you can use that cap space to upgrade somewhere offensively. 

That’s WAY to simplistic way of looking at things. Was Edmonds the reason our defense was torched? There was 10 others guys out there and we were missing our best defender. 
 

Our defense may not have deserved to be number 1, but either way, they WERE a very good defense. Allen and the offense lead the way for us, but the defense matters and Edmonds has an important role, even if he could be better. 
 

obviously Edmonds isn’t a star, but he also isn’t bad. The Bills are in the middle of a Super Bowl window, they won’t move on from Edmonds unless they have someone to take his spot, which they don’t have. Weaker MLB play won’t help win a Super Bowl, and there is no guarantee we find a better replacement. As an example, who would recommend we replace Edmonds with? 
 

Anyone who hopes to see the Bills move on from Edmonds before this season will not be happy. The most likely scenario is the Bills draft a LBer to learn the ropes this season, and then the Bills offer Edmonds a contract worthy of his production. If he takes it, fine. If not, they have someone to step in who knows the defense. 

15 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Not true. 2020 was our best year and he didnt play

2020 minus the injuries? The defense was better this year. 
 

we save a little over 1.5 million moving on from Star, I don’t see us doing that this year unless we get a sure fire replacement (that would most likely be the draft). If we cut star, whoever we bring in to replace him most likely costs more than what we save.