Ukraine. The End Game

[Chef Jim]

34 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Fortunately, Russian incompetence and Ukranian mud might take care of Putin's regime without US or NATO intervention.  Should Putin not retain power through this fiasco, we just need to hope that whoever/whatever fills the power void is a better option.  Recent history has often made us miss the dictator we knew after we were made familiar with the new chaos.  One thing is certain, its going to be interesting!

 

And the dissatisfaction of this whole thing by his own people and other leaders within his regime might also take care of what a friend of mine calls Puto the Thumb.

 

As a guy who loves history these past two years have been quite amazing to be a part of.   

[Coffeesforclosers]

49 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Fortunately, Russian incompetence and Ukranian mud might take care of Putin's regime without US or NATO intervention.  Should Putin not retain power through this fiasco, we just need to hope that whoever/whatever fills the power void is a better option.  Recent history has often made us miss the dictator we knew after we were made familiar with the new chaos.  One thing is certain, its going to be interesting!

 

Ukraine's apparently got 5 tank brigades they've been sitting on, and 90% of Russia's mobilized troops are in the field.  It's a ripe time to hit back...unless those brigades are all the mechanized troops Ukraine has left. 

 

Hopefully things keep going ***** for Russia, but eventually Ukraine's got to hit back somewhere.  Probably in the south between Mariupol and Odessa, where Russian forces aren't a total clown show.  Put paid to the most successful Russian advance, and protect the forces facing Luhansk, Donetsk, and holding Kahrkiv from encirclement.

 

 

[Tiberius]

8 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

Ukraine's apparently got 5 tank brigades they've been sitting on, and 90% of Russia's mobilized troops are in the field.  It's a ripe time to hit back...unless those brigades are all the mechanized troops Ukraine has left. 

 

Hopefully things keep going ***** for Russia, but eventually Ukraine's got to hit back somewhere.  Probably in the south between Mariupol and Odessa, where Russian forces aren't a total clown show.  Put paid to the most successful Russian advance, and protect the forces facing Luhansk, Donetsk, and holding Kahrkiv from encirclement.

 

 

I hope poor Odessa gets spared the Russian onslaught. Maybe Russia's advance is spent 

[OrangeBills]

12 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

We're suffering from a massive case of the boy who cried wolf.  Ever since the forever wars started, we've been fed a line about the next Hitler, mushroom clouds, wmds and whatever.

 

Now when there's an actual maniac who wants to reconquer a dead empire, everyone on all sides of the political spectrum is fed up.

 

It's ***** sad that we've come to this. because everyone is torn between standing up to Tsar Vladimir the Insane and starting ANOTHER war that goes on and on and on and on.

 

 

 

No, it's Emperor Has No Clothes

Covid Definitely, Global activities certainly.  The boy who yelled "But he hasn't any clothes on" would be arrested by today's Leftist thugs.

[Motorin']

17 hours ago, OrangeBills said:

 

No, it's Emperor Has No Clothes

Covid Definitely, Global activities certainly.  The boy who yelled "But he hasn't any clothes on" would be arrested by today's Leftist thugs.

 

Russia's are being threatened with 15 years imprisonment for saying the word "war" or "invasion." 

 

[T&C]

Just heard that Putin is going to leave one of our astronauts on the space station.

[ALF]

9 hours ago, T&C said:

Just heard that Putin is going to leave one of our astronauts on the space station.

 

"A SpaceX vessel carrying a crew of astronauts arrived at the International Space Station Thursday evening, marking the fourth time the company founded by Elon Musk has taken astronauts to the facility for NASA."   (old quote)

https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/8/22769970/spacex-crew-2-dragon-capsule-splash-down-success

 

He'll take care of that, screw Russia

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by ALF

[sherpa]

Talks between Ukraine and Russia seem to be far more positive this morning.

Russian Defense hints they may drastically slow military activity, but not end it.

Both sides say demands are more realistic.

 

Futures bounce a little, and oil drops a bit on news.

 

Maybe there's a glimmer of hope.

[All_Pro_Bills]

24 minutes ago, sherpa said:

Talks between Ukraine and Russia seem to be far more positive this morning.

Russian Defense hints they may drastically slow military activity, but not end it.

Both sides say demands are more realistic.

 

Futures bounce a little, and oil drops a bit on news.

 

Maybe there's a glimmer of hope.

The headlines sound promising that some end to hostilities can be reached or at a minimum dialing it back.  U.S. markets are rallying on the news and the oil price is coming down but the reality they're ignoring is the sanctions will not be removed anytime soon regardless of any peace deal and relationships between the West and Russia are beyond repair.  All these asset freeze and seizure actions have given a lot of dollar holders pause to evaluate what I've seen described as "un-hedgeable confiscation risk".

 

[Tiberius]

Oil it seems is reacting to other news

 

 

 

usiness)Covid fears are rocking the oil market Monday as China's planned lockdown of Shanghai raises concerns about energy demand.

US crude tumbled 7% and Brent lost 6.8% on the Covid news, giving back most of last week's big gains. The heavy selloff comes after officials in China announced plans to lock down half of Shanghai for mass Covid-19 testing beginning Monday. 

"China is the big fear factor right now," said Michael Tran, managing director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/28/business/oil-prices-covid-shanghai/index.html

[Tiberius]

Ukraine is warning its negotiators not to eat, drink or even touch anything in talks with Russia in Istanbul, following allegations that Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and others may have been poisoned during previous talks.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/29/roman-abramovich-poison-turkey-talks-ukraine-russia/

“I advise anyone going for negotiations with Russia not to eat or drink anything, preferably avoid touching surfaces,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an interview on national television channel, Ukrayina 24.

Abramovich — who is also attending the peace talks in Istanbul, although Russian officials said he was not part of the official delegation — fell ill after meetings in early March, as did members of Ukraine’s negotiating delegation. They came to suspect that they were poisoned, an associate of Abramovich said Monday.

[Coffeesforclosers]

2 hours ago, sherpa said:

Talks between Ukraine and Russia seem to be far more positive this morning.

Russian Defense hints they may drastically slow military activity, but not end it.

Both sides say demands are more realistic.

 

Futures bounce a little, and oil drops a bit on news.

 

Maybe there's a glimmer of hope.

 

Russia hasn't budged on "Denazification, Demilitarization" and special protections for the Russian language.  Whatever the ***** all that crap means.

 

Ukraine's said that it will not trade people, land or sovereignty for peace.  It will trade NATO membership, but wants Article 5 style protection from other countries.  These countries would be obligated to commit real, live troops to Ukraine's defense in future invasions.

 

The Turks said Russia is still demanding recognition of Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea.  Turkey described these demands as "maximalist" and "unreasonable".

 

So we've moved on to the beginnings of horse trading, sorta.  Russia is no longer demanding the end of Ukraine as an independent, sovereign country.  That's progress.

 

Edit: the last time Russia brought up "Demilitarization", they pushed for an 80% reduction in the size of Ukraine's army as their starting point.  

 

Now they're saying their withdrawal from the Kyiv area is a goodwill gesture.  Which is bull####, they're getting their asses kicked around Kyiv and want to save the troops and supplies for operations in Donbas, where Russian attacks are making gains.  

Edited March 29, 2022 by Coffeesforclosers

[B-Man]

 

 

GEORGE FRIEDMAN: How the Ukraine War Will Likely End.

 

 

The Russian army today seems disorganized, unimaginative and uninspired. The deployment of force, preparation of logistics and command of the battlefields on all levels simply wasn’t there. This was a different sort of Russian army, a bureaucratized one, one more afraid of the czar than of losing to the enemy. Putin demanded a rapid defeat of the enemy. But to rule by strength, you must see clearly and strike decisively at the center of gravity.

 

Ukraine had no center of gravity, only a widely dispersed light infantry force that provided no single point to destroy. Although that may seem like guerrilla warfare, it is not, and Ukraine surprised its enemy with resilience and unpredictability. The attacker can respond with brutal attacks on the population, but that leaves the Ukrainians with no choice but to fight. The Russian army wasn’t designed for this war, hadn’t planned for this war and has only brutal counter-civilian action to take.

 

And Putin will take it.

 

The problem, then, is that Putin cannot stop, nor can he reach an agreement with Ukraine that he will keep. Every deal – except for surrender by the enemy – is a revelation of weakness on the part of a weak country and a weak ruler. The only alternatives are ineffective action because the force he sent to war was the wrong force from a country that didn’t have the right one.

 

He can reach a genuine cease-fire, but if he does, he’s finished. Not being able to defeat the Ukrainians, and held in contempt by others, destroys the myth of his power. Continuing the war endlessly reveals the same thing. As this goes on, Putin’s primary task is to pretend that the defeat is not happening because anything less than victory is a defeat. Every agreement must end in betrayal, and as it happens with guerrillas, they get stronger the longer the war drags out.

 

A crucial question is whether Russia has strategic reserves. The army has been in the field for over a month, in weather that is still cold, at the end of a logistical line that is problematic. It has been fighting a highly motivated, mobile light infantry force familiar with the terrain. It cannot go on indefinitely. Russia has to rotate its forces. Strategically, it must send more. Instead, it is executing a bloody withdrawal. You don’t fight for the same ground twice unless you have to.

 

This means that Putin’s war plan is shattered. The resistance has been effective and his troops need a relief he cannot provide.

 

It’s a tough world. It’s even tougher when you act stupid.

 

 

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/how-the-ukraine-war-will-likely-end/

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

This is a mistake..............

 

 

NATO Strategy Shifts From Ukraine Must Be Defended to Russia Must Lose

 

https://redstate.com/streiff/2022/04/11/nato-strategy-shifts-from-ukraine-must-be-defended-to-russia-must-lose-n548797

 

 

 

[T master]

What i don;t get is the US did every thing they could do to help defeat the Russians when they went into Afghanistan went behind every ones backs to keep it some what secretive and helped Bin Laden out only to screw them later on & make him look like the bad guy .

 

Here is the exact same thing happening in the Ukraine and alls the US does id=s stand back along with a bunch of others & watch as Russia's maniac leader kills thousands of innocent people including children .

 

I can understand not wanting to get the US in a war but there has to be a way that they can get these people the help they need hell if Biden would have been one to use his head they could have gotten all that was left behind in Afghanistan & used it to fight instead of leaving it for the Taliban .