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Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version


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10 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


I’m sure you know prior to the season strength of schedule comes out based on upcoming opponents and their records the prior year.  Last year prior to the entrance of the season, we had a SOS as 5th hardest in the NFL.  Post season looking back based on how these teams finished we had the 15th hardest SOS.  The reason these SOS are so marginal in importance is you can’t account fir injuries, etc. like the 49ers who lost so many key players just prior or in the beginning of the season.  They were in the darn SB the previous year.  We didn't have a weak schedule.

 

We had a middle of the pack schedule.  We played 6 of the top 10 defenses last year and beat all of them in the season or the playoffs.  I’ll agree Allen is off these first two games, but to rewrite last year as Allen was only good because he played easy teams is silly, and not true.  Bottom line is I haven’t read any real reason why Allen is off other than he’s in a slump for whatever reason.  It happens in baseball all the time.

so not weak?

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6 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

so not weak?

No.  Prior to season it was predicted one of the toughest schedules.  After the season looking retrospective it was middle of the pack so not weak.

 

This is why I look at SOS in context.  This year prior to the season 23rd.  What skews this stuff is Brees retiring, Carolina might be better than last years record.  I wouldn’t make statements like we had a weak schedule or tough schedule just from prior years records.  
 

Lastly, we played 6 of the top 10 defenses and beat every one of them. Don’t tell me that’s weak.

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1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Miami was 10-6.

 

Yes, the 49ers, Broncos and Pats weren't great but we blew them all out.  We were averaging something like averaged 38 points per game in the last 6.

 

We had WR's running wide open last year and our speed is the same as it was last year.  It's about scheming.  How many TD's did Gabe Davis have last year when he was running with no one near him....he's not a speedster.  

 

I tend to view it more in terms of scheme as well.  Yes, speed helps, but how many times does Mahomes take the snap, step back, quick throw for 8 yards to a wide open guy?  Against the ravens, I saw that multiple times.  Where is that in our offense right now?... If for nothing else, to help Josh find a rhythm. 

 

Now some of it is also individual talent... there was a play that I remember thinking how is Kelce always wide open???.... Well, they then showed a replay of Kelce's route and he absolutely WORKED his defender.  

 

Not really fair to compare anyone to KC... they have the two biggest mismatches in the NFL on one offense in Hill/Kelce, but other teams find ways to get QB's easy throws.... It just seems like everything we try to do is so difficult right now. 

 

Edited by SCBills
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45 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

No.  Prior to season it was predicted one of the toughest schedules.  After the season looking retrospective it was middle of the pack so not weak.

 

This is why I look at SOS in context.  This year prior to the season 23rd.  What skews this stuff is Brees retiring, Carolina might be better than last years record.  I wouldn’t make statements like we had a weak schedule or tough schedule just from prior years records.  
 

Lastly, we played 6 of the top 10 defenses and beat every one of them. Don’t tell me that’s weak.

Sorry was being a bit snarky.  I agree.

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16 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

           

       He also made some td passes without forcing the ball but because he isn't posting higher fantasy winning stats fans are saying he regressed. 2 of 17 games not even a quarter of season played.  We have a nice new pass rush that looks like it can  really grow with interesting potential.  I'm not buying many of the teams we will play still this season will have the defense capable of shutting down Josh and this offense not to mention that team would need an equally skilled offense to get by our so far stellar defense.

 

    Early yet but we got the horses now to maintain a rotation that allows for resting players that max need it during season.  Bills have invested heavily in maintaining the right blend of recovery specialists to keep players in peak condition. 

 

 

I like the way you think Auntie. 

 

Myself personally, I can understand everyones concern. On the other hand the way  Miami was game planned, play called and game managed by Josh Allen. This is exactly what we need to see when the going gets tough IMO. The opposition in the last 3 games has game planned the Bills WR's out of the equation. Against the Dolphins on Sunday the Buffalo Bills had an answer. A more balanced attack and the Buffalo Bills RB's did not disappoint. Scoring 3 of the 5 TD's with a couple of runs that showed the physical smash you in the mouth football that has been missing in the Bills O.

 

Talked one of my favorite Nephews that lives in Georgia whom normally doesn't follow football into watching the Bills this year. I told him If there was ever a time to start watching football/ Buffalo Bills this was it. He works full time and is studying to become a minister in his spare time. My nephew watched the game and when I told him the fan reaction was somewhat mixed, more negatives then positive comments he was surprised. How can a 35 to nothing shutout go over so bad with the Bills fan base he asked me. I didn't have a good answer. 

 

Thanks AuntieEm for the thoughtful response. Welcome to TBD.

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11 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:


I’m sure you know prior to the season strength of schedule comes out based on upcoming opponents and their records the prior year.  Last year prior to the entrance of the season, we had a SOS as 5th hardest in the NFL.  Post season looking back based on how these teams finished we had the 15th hardest SOS.  The reason these SOS are so marginal in importance is you can’t account fir injuries, etc. like the 49ers who lost so many key players just prior or in the beginning of the season.  They were in the darn SB the previous year.  We didn't have a weak schedule.

 

We had a middle of the pack schedule.  We played 6 of the top 10 defenses last year and beat all of them in the season or the playoffs.  I’ll agree Allen is off these first two games, but to rewrite last year as Allen was only good because he played easy teams is silly, and not true.  Bottom line is I haven’t read any real reason why Allen is off other than he’s in a slump for whatever reason.  It happens in baseball all the time.

 

       It also makes a difference how serious the opponent takes you and then how they gameplan for you.  I think last year especially the first 4 or 5 games opponents weren't expecting Josh and the offense to start off on fire and hitting on all those passes after all everyone knows you can't improve accuracy..... 

 

     Surprise is always a benefit if you can provide it.  Hard to do once the quality of your play is known so going forward Josh and the Bills will be adding new stuff that catches opponents by surprise.  Then there are those teams that just don't have the defensive players to stop even the old stuff the bills offense is good at.  

 

      The reason is teams are playing him differently. They now know he can beat you when you blitz so DC are planning more specifically for stopping him. As he adds new weapons plays this year it will become harder to come up with successful gameplans so games will start looking more like 2020.  Josh and the bills offense isn't broken it just still evolving.  When creating a masterpiece it doesn't always look pretty during the creation stage.

 

     Don't worry u çan just rewatch the parts you enjoy most on the 2021 Bills road to SB victory season DVD set. You'll be able to forget the bumps in the road you were less entertained by.

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From the bigger picture perspective, Allen has not played well going back to the divisional game against the Ravens:

 

4 straight games:

 

-QB rating under 86.1

-No more than 2 TD passes per game

-No 300+ yard games

- Under 6 YPA

- 3 total turnovers

- 8 total sacks

 

These overall numbers are worse if you take out the two playoff games from last year.

 

Allen should be under a lot of pressure this week against WFT to right the ship so to speak and should be able to do that since this is the weakest defense metric wise he's faced this season.

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7 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

From the bigger picture perspective, Allen has not played well going back to the divisional game against the Ravens:

 

4 straight games:

 

-QB rating under 86.1

-No more than 2 TD passes per game

-No 300+ yard games

- Under 6 YPA

- 3 total turnovers

- 8 total sacks

 

These overall numbers are worse if you take out the two playoff games from last year.

 

Allen should be under a lot of pressure this week against WFT to right the ship so to speak and should be able to do that since this is the weakest defense metric wise he's faced this season.

yeah...after that other thread, you're in time out.

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Josh Allen went 20/26 for 194 yards and 2 TD vs the Packers in the final preseason game. 

 

So he's the same guy he was last season, except coverages and defenses have adjusted. Now the Bills need to counter. 

 

It's about being your best in February and winning a championship, so figure it out now and get some W's, then peak when the stakes are highest. 

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4 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

 

       It also makes a difference how serious the opponent takes you and then how they gameplan for you.  I think last year especially the first 4 or 5 games opponents weren't expecting Josh and the offense to start off on fire and hitting on all those passes after all everyone knows you can't improve accuracy..... 

 

     Surprise is always a benefit if you can provide it.  Hard to do once the quality of your play is known so going forward Josh and the Bills will be adding new stuff that catches opponents by surprise.  Then there are those teams that just don't have the defensive players to stop even the old stuff the bills offense is good at.  

 

      The reason is teams are playing him differently. They now know he can beat you when you blitz so DC are planning more specifically for stopping him. As he adds new weapons plays this year it will become harder to come up with successful gameplans so games will start looking more like 2020.  Josh and the bills offense isn't broken it just still evolving.  When creating a masterpiece it doesn't always look pretty during the creation stage.

 

     Don't worry u çan just rewatch the parts you enjoy most on the 2021 Bills road to SB victory season DVD set. You'll be able to forget the bumps in the road you were less entertained by.

Nice post. This is a plausible, rational take. Some folks only equate the latter with pointing out what's wrong, alas.

P.S. Don't let the mean lady take Toto.

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3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

From the bigger picture perspective, Allen has not played well going back to the divisional game against the Ravens:

 

4 straight games:

 

-QB rating under 86.1

-No more than 2 TD passes per game

-No 300+ yard games

- Under 6 YPA

- 3 total turnovers

- 8 total sacks

 

These overall numbers are worse if you take out the two playoff games from last year.

 

Allen should be under a lot of pressure this week against WFT to right the ship so to speak and should be able to do that since this is the weakest defense metric wise he's faced this season.

Our receivers were riddled with injuries the entire playoffs last season...I cringe every time someone tries to include those games in some kind of trend.  We've gotta clean up the oline and holding penalties and if he still struggles then we can start to panic 

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1 hour ago, Process said:

4 open receivers, one for a TD, has time to throw, and it's an incomplete pass. Yikes. 

 

 

 

It looks bad at the end, but that safety would have drifted back to the WR if Josh threw it to the end zone, IMO.

 

Now, he might have been able to gun it in there, but I it wouldn't have looked so wide open had the ball not been thrown to the sideline. 

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3 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

It looks bad at the end, but that safety would have drifted back to the WR if Josh threw it to the end zone, IMO.

 

Now, he might have been able to gun it in there, but I it wouldn't have looked so wide open had the ball not been thrown to the sideline. 

Last year against the Broncos on the Kumerow TD throw, Allen doesn't hesitate, he drives the ball down the middle of the field, and Simmons said he just knew that he was going to make a play on that ball. Safety is there, he just blows it by them. 

 

Allen is missing throws. 

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Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Last year against the Broncos on the Kumerow TD throw, Allen doesn't hesitate, he drives the ball down the middle of the field, and Simmons said he just knew that he was going to make a play on that ball. Safety is there, he just blows it by them. 

 

Allen is missing throws. 

 

I think he's in his own head. Trying to live up to the contract, be the QB who wins a Super Bowl here, all of that. 

 

IMO this is why he looked so great in preseason action. No pressure, no reason to be tight. That's my concern, because big goals= pressure situations. 

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21 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Josh Allen went 20/26 for 194 yards and 2 TD vs the Packers in the final preseason game. 

 

So he's the same guy he was last season, except coverages and defenses have adjusted. Now the Bills need to counter. 

 

It's about being your best in February and winning a championship, so figure it out now and get some W's, then peak when the stakes are highest. 


If only we could play the Packers backup defense every week. 
 

He’s clearly missing throws he simply did not miss last year. And if defenses have figured him out this fast then that’s bad too. 

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