Bills rushing - yards before contact

[Chandler#81]

7 hours ago, Utah John said:

I watched an analysis of the RBs in pass blocking, particularly blitz pickups.  Moss excels while Motor struggles.  I think this goes back to excellent coaching at Utah, which prepared Moss for the life of an NFL RB on a passing team.  I think this is also why Moss was drafted.

 

As long as Allen is the QB, the Bills will be a passing team that runs from time to time.  The O line was built for pass blocking.  The entire offense is built around making the passing game work.  And why not?  With our QB and WRs, of course that's just playing to our strengths.

 

If Singletary doesn't make it past this year with the Bills, it will be because he hasn't improved enough on blitz pickups.  I have no idea whether Brieda is any good at pass blocking, but I anticipate that given Brieda's superior speed and quickness over Motor, that Brieda is here now to be ready for Motor leaving next year.  I hope things don't go this way. I like Singletary and I hope he grows into the role the team wants him to fill.

Agreed that Singletary struggled on Blitz pick ups through his rookie season and into last season. But I thought he improved as the season wore on and Josh recognized blitzes and repositioned Devin to pick it up. His dropped pass in the title game bought him a seat on the bench, so the bad taste lingers. But I won’t be surprised if he takes a full grip of the position this year. He’s quick, not fast. He’s elusive and an improving receiver. He has a QB who can play to his strengths.

I’m hopeful.

[Punching Bag]

19 hours ago, CuseBill said:

Another overlooked issue is how well wide receivers run block downfield.  I recently re-watched last season's game vs. LA Rams and it struck me how well LAR's wide receivers are designed to and actually block downfield on run plays.  Robert Woods especially is a good downfield run blocker who stays with his blocks.  I noticed how our WR's do not stay with blocks and DB's are immediately able to provide run support.  That must have an effect on yards after initial contact if a DB can just fly up and make a hit because they have not been engaged at all.  By the way, Bills had 101 rushing yards in that game and LAR had 167. 

 

Robert Woods has been known to be one of the best WR run blockers in the league since he was with Bills. 

[Mr. WEO]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

On the contrary.

 

When you say "within a yard" you're missing the point. You could say they're all within a yard if some got 0.0001 yard and others got 0.9999 yards. Still a huge variance, though. Same with the figure here.

 

Within a yard is a very significant difference when the percentage of difference is so large.

 

If everyone was within a yard between, say 12 and 13 yards, yeah, it's insignificant. Now, that would be minisiscule variation, where the figures only vary around 8%.

 

If on the other hand you're looking at a list (as you are here) where the variation is between 2.0 and 3.0 yards, that's a 50% variation in productivity in that area. That's very significant difference indeed.

 

 

 

There are a million nanometers between 1 millimeter and 2 millimeters.  Why didn't you mention that as well?

 

Slice it any way  you  wish....it's 3 feet.  One stride. In a practical sense (which is what we are only considering here) that's not a meaningful difference on the field.

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Tim, that was my interest in what style does both Breida and/or Moss Singletary gel.  They need to settle in on one style and master it.  Shaw makes a good point in flexibility, but a good running team like the Browns or Titans does one thing very well.

 

I don’t expect a heavy running game as our strength obviously is in pass pro and 10/11 personnel with an exceptional passing scheme.  We were 14th in rushing in 2020 partially because of Allen’s yards.  I don’t expect that to go away so if we could just increase our ypc bringing us up to 10th, that will be significant progress.  

I'm going to get run off this forum for saying this over and over, but I think you have to look at what the Patriots did to try to understand what the Bills are doing.   I've often said McDermott is a closet Belichick fan, but I don't believe it.  I think McDermott developed his system and approach by watching everyone and taking the best from everyone, including Belichick.  But, because a lot of what Belichick did was the best, McDermott has a lot of Belichick in him.  

 

There was a time a few years ago when Belichick dazzled the league, going from run-dominated offense to pass-dominated offense from week to week.  No one knew what to expect.   In fact, sometimes it was a speed running game, sometimes a power running game.  Belichick had years and years of no-name running backs.  Sometimes it was a rookie, sometimes it was journeyman.  They all had one thing in common - they weren't going to the Hall of Fame.   

 

I think McDermott wants his offense and his running game to be like that.   Assuming (and I understand this assumption could be a thread on its own) that it's reasonable to try to be amoeba-like in that way, Singletary and Moss are certainly good enough to be the backs.  Decent speed, decent power.  In my mind, their only problem is they're too much alike.   Maybe Breida can be the change of pace guy, better speed, maybe a little less power.   My point is, I'm not sure it matters much.   Would I like (and would McD like) a Chubb or that guy in New Orleans or some other guy who is a bigger homerun hitter than Singletary/Moss/Breida?   Absolutely.   But I think that McDermott's model (which is something like Belichick's model) is that he doesn't need a homerun hitter.  Yes, he'd like one, and the offense would be adjusted to feature him more if he had one, but he doesn't think he needs one.   You can tell he doesn't think he needs one, because we've all seen those three guys run, and McDermott has, too, and he hasn't told Beane to go get a more dynamic running back. 

 

I think it really comes back to the offensive line.  The philosophy seems to be that the running backs are good enough, and the line has to do a better job creating the space for the backs to get past the line of scrimmage untouched.   Any of those three backs is just fine if you can get them two yards past the line of scrimmage.  So, I think the real question is whether the Swiss-army-knife approach that they seem to be taking on the offensive line will work.  As you or someone else pointed out, it seems to be an odd collection of road graders, pass blockers and finesse players, which means the line doesn't have a cohesive personality.  McDermott probably doesn't want a cohesive personality - that is, if you've got five nasties up there, you may be able to run the ball great but can't pass block.   If you have pass blockers, you can't run.  McDermott wants an offensive line that can do it all.

 

Bottom line, I think McBeane intend to succeed the way Belichick succeeded - by getting the best football players they can and then with each, don't ask him to do things that don't fit his skill set.   I mean, every offensive lineman has to run block, but if they know lineman X can't make a certain reach block, they adjust the offense so that he doesn't have to make that block.  The objective is to have every guy on the field executing his assignment on every play, so there's no point in asking him to execute something you know he can't.  What you do is adjust his assignment so that he's always doing things he can execute.   That's why Belichick has so much success with guys off his bench filling in for injured starters.  

 

Bringing it back to the running backs, yes, they don't have some of the skills that you'd like to see in the running back room, but they have skills.  McDermott views it as his job to find ways to put those guys in positions on the field where their skills are utilized and where the things they can't do don't matter all that much.  

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills have a lot of success on defense this season, because of the success that Rousseau and Basham might have, for the same reason I just discussed.   Neither one of these guys looks like the quintessential homerun hitting defensive player.   They're different.   But they both seem to have some special skills, and McDermott's philosophy is to get guys on the field and to maximize their skills.  (Belichick, too.  When he gets a Gilmore or a Moss or a Gronk, he gets a lot out of him.)   I think McDermott is going to have a field day moving those two guys around the defensive line, and I think Oliver and Epenesa, and probably Hughes and Philips, all will benefit from it.   Frankly, I can see Edmunds being a big beneficiary, too, because the Bills may have two physical freaks - Edmunds and Rousseau, on the field at the same time.    

 

If I'm right about the defense, it will be because the Bills don't operate with a rigid scheme and try to fit players into it, and they don't exactly build their team around players, either.   McDermott is trying to do something different.  He's trying to have a mix of players that allows him to play multiple schemes, and he's letting the talents of his players dictate, to some extent, what those schemes are.   Even though it may be hard to see how they fit together in a classic dominating defense, I think the potential is there for a different reason:  the potential is there because the Bills have a lot of guys on defense with skills that can be disruptive.   Think about it:  Hyde and Poyer in the back are solid but also threats to make big plays - maybe not Polamalu big plays, but make plays in the defensive backfield, the offensive backfield, and in between.  White is someone the offensive coordinator has to scheme around.   Milano, Edmunds, Oliver, Basham, and Rousseau all are potential disruptors because of their size and speed.   Epenesa and Hughes, although not as dynamic, also are potential playmakers.   

 

The model is get good football players and figure out how to make it work.  That's what's coming on offense, and that's the challenge of the running game.  The running backs and the linemen are good enough to dominate if their talents are properly utilized.   You can tell the Bills believe that, because they didn't make major personnel changes anywhere in the run game.   

 

Trust the process. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There are a million nanometers between 1 millimeter and 2 millimeters.  Why didn't you mention that as well?

 

Slice it any way  you  wish....it's 3 feet.  One stride. In a practical sense (which is what we are only considering here) that's not a meaningful difference on the field.

 

I'm not trying to criticize with the "have you ever played before"....so I'm seriously asking if you have.

One stride makes can make a GIGANTIC difference with the speed the game is played at.  Inches make a difference.

[IgotBILLStopay]

22 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm

 

Rushing yards before contact is generally considered a good measure of how effective a team’s OL is in run blocking.  While the Bills OL seems to be built to pass block well, they do not seem to be doing a good job at all of run blocking.  The exception would be if RBs aren’t doing a good job of finding/hitting the holes opened for them.

 

The link above shows Singletary 3rd worst in the league with 1.5 yards before contact/attempt and Moss 9th worst at 1.8 ybc/a.  I think it is unlikely that both are that bad at finding and hitting holes so it looks like it on the OL.

 

Both backs seem to be excellent at getting yards after contact though.  Link  Singletary is 2nd with 2.9 and Moss is 13th with 2.4.  Looking at those numbers I can certainly see why the Bills didn’t draft a RB, but it makes me wonder why they didn’t try to upgrade the OL, especially the interior. 

That is why they got those big tackles in. They want Spencer Brown to be a people mover. He specifically practiced run blocking with Joe Staley - and his versatility to play in any run blocking scheme was  mentioned by various scouts (no way to verify that since there is no video).

 

But there is another point your post raises. You label YBC as an indicator of OL effectiveness. I will submit that, unlike an Anthony Lynn or Greg Roman, Daboll has not been so great with the running game. So it is a joint OL-Daboll thing rather than just an OL thing. He does have middle of the pack running stats primarily because of Josh Allen's improv.

[GunnerBill]

21 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I really think the blocking scheme needs to be looked at, this team is built for a Zone Scheme and try’s to play road grader, which just doesn’t cut it.  Morse is crazy athletic, and the Guards aren’t big enough to run over real interior players, they need to quit pretending they have the personnel for a smash mouth style run game.  More pulls etc would be great, instead the RBs are primarily trying to get back to the LoS at this point.  They are pretty good pass blockers, but I was pretty disappointed to see them not try to upgrade the O-line this offseason.

 

They don't have the right blockers for the runners they have and they don't have the right runners for the blockers they have. I'm not quite sure how they have got here but conceptually it just doesn't all quite hang together - scheme, personnel, formation - it is just a bit muddled. Originally they signed Spain and Feliciano and I assumed power run game. But Morse isn't a fit for that and nor is Singletary who they drafted. So last year they draft Moss, more of a direct running power style back. And yet they then jettison Spain, try to move to more of a zone blocking run game and yet at one point had Morse benched for Feliciano and Winters. It has just all felt a little confused. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There are a million nanometers between 1 millimeter and 2 millimeters.  Why didn't you mention that as well?

 

Slice it any way  you  wish....it's 3 feet.  One stride. In a practical sense (which is what we are only considering here) that's not a meaningful difference on the field.

 

Are you one of those guys that ran a 13 second 100m dash in high school and thought they were going to make the Olympics because that's only a few seconds slower than the world record ?

[Mr. WEO]

14 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Are you one of those guys that ran a 13 second 100m dash in high school and thought they were going to make the Olympics because that's only a few seconds slower than the world record ?

 

 

They say the 100 yard dash is not a game of inches...it's 100 yards.

[Punching Bag]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They don't have the right blockers for the runners they have and they don't have the right runners for the blockers they have. I'm not quite sure how they have got here but conceptually it just doesn't all quite hang together - scheme, personnel, formation - it is just a bit muddled. Originally they signed Spain and Feliciano and I assumed power run game. But Morse isn't a fit for that and nor is Singletary who they drafted. So last year they draft Moss, more of a direct running power style back. And yet they then jettison Spain, try to move to more of a zone blocking run game and yet at one point had Morse benched for Feliciano and Winters. It has just all felt a little confused. 

For Quittin' Spain:

• Spain signed with the Bills after the start of free agency last offseason on April 5, 2019.
• Spain started all 16 games.
• On March 17, 2020, Spain signed a three-year, $15 million contract extension with the Bills.
  • three years, $15M, $4.5M gtd, $1.5M signing bonus, $1.4M 2020 fifth day roster bonus; salaries $2.25M ($1.6M gtd), $3.9M, $4.15M; annual up to $500K roster bonus, $100K annual workout bonus
• He started the first two games at left guard before being benched in favor of Cody Ford and Brian Winters.
• He was released on October 21, 2020.

 

The gave Spain a new 3 year contract after bringing him in as a FA so they believed he was part of OL going forward.

They jettisoned Spain because he was not performing in games so he was benched and made backup resulting him being unhappy. 

• Maybe he did not like scheme changes but he was paid to play.

For Titans game, a team he came from, he was scheduled to play but when he got to Tennessee he could not play due to unspecified foot soreness (plantars fakeitis?).  He had done quite a bit of social media comments to players on previous team when he got contract.  It seems he was bragging and now he had egg on face.

If he had been injured before they went down there he would not have gone with team.

Then he gets back and is released without an injury settlement and more vague social media posts.

 

 

[eball]

There's an interview with the OL coach (Bobby Johnson) in today's Buffalo News.  I think it's a good read.  He admits they didn't run the ball well enough and while nobody expects the Bills to become a run-oriented offense they clearly want to block it better when runs are called.  In other words, they don't think the run offense last year was sufficient.  That's not necessarily a surprise but it's reassuring to hear a coach say the things you expect him to say.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

For Quittin' Spain:

• Spain signed with the Bills after the start of free agency last offseason on April 5, 2019.
• Spain started all 16 games.
• On March 17, 2020, Spain signed a three-year, $15 million contract extension with the Bills.
  • three years, $15M, $4.5M gtd, $1.5M signing bonus, $1.4M 2020 fifth day roster bonus; salaries $2.25M ($1.6M gtd), $3.9M, $4.15M; annual up to $500K roster bonus, $100K annual workout bonus
• He started the first two games at left guard before being benched in favor of Cody Ford and Brian Winters.
• He was released on October 21, 2020.

 

The gave Spain a new 3 year contract after bringing him in as a FA so they believed he was part of OL going forward.

They jettisoned Spain because he was not performing in games so he was benched and made backup resulting him being unhappy. 

• Maybe he did not like scheme changes but he was paid to play.

For Titans game, a team he came from, he was scheduled to play but when he got to Tennessee he could not play due to unspecified foot soreness (plantars fakeitis?).  He had done quite a bit of social media comments to players on previous team when he got contract.  It seems he was bragging and now he had egg on face.

If he had been injured before they went down there he would not have gone with team.

Then he gets back and is released without an injury settlement and more vague social media posts.

 

 

 

He wasn't performing because they went away from his skillset. They didn't bring Quinton Spain in to zone block. That isn't his game. I agree his behaviour after he was benched was none too impressive and at that point I understand why they cut bait. 

 

Oh and take it from someone who has suffered with plantar fasciitis it is seriously beeping painful!  

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm not trying to criticize with the "have you ever played before"....so I'm seriously asking if you have.

One stride makes can make a GIGANTIC difference with the speed the game is played at.  Inches make a difference.

 

Yes, they say it's a game of inches. 

 

But clichés aside, look for instance at the guys in the 2.7 YBC/A:  David Johnson, Chris Carson, Philip Lindsay and Malcom Brown.  Now compare to they guys at 2.5: which includes  Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Aaron Jones.  Is it the O-line that is significantly superior in, say, Houston than in Tennessee to account for those extra 7 inches?

 

How about in AZ?  Chase Edmunds came in at 2.7, then there is a HUGE dropoff to Kenyan Drake (who rushed for 500 more yards) at 2.3.  O-line didn't feel it for Drake like they did for Edmunds?  

 

ATL had a whopping 2.9 for Ito Smith, but a dismal 1.7 for Todd Gurley.

 

Baltimore?  Dobbins got a top ranked 3.1, yet the same O-line could only get Gus Edwards 2.3 (they rushed for 805 and 723, resp)?

 

Cleveland's Line blocks for Chubb to the tune of  a hefty 2.9, yet they do Hunt no favors at an anemic 1.9 (yet they had 1067 and 841 yards)?

 

 

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

23 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I really think the blocking scheme needs to be looked at, this team is built for a Zone Scheme and try’s to play road grader, which just doesn’t cut it.  Morse is crazy athletic, and the Guards aren’t big enough to run over real interior players, they need to quit pretending they have the personnel for a smash mouth style run game.  More pulls etc would be great, instead the RBs are primarily trying to get back to the LoS at this point.  They are pretty good pass blockers, but I was pretty disappointed to see them not try to upgrade the O-line this offseason.

Great points DCofNC.  I hate handing off when Josh Allen is in shotgun.  The RB is standing still and has no momentum heading towards the line of scrimmage.  And it just seems to take a long time for the play to develop to the point where there are just too many big bodies in front of our RB's clogging all the running lanes.  I like the idea of having our guards and center pull leading the way for a sweep or pitch out.  Regardless the scheme will need to be tweaked some to get a more consistent running game.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yes, they say it's a game of inches. 

 

But clichés aside, look for instance at the guys in the 2.7 YBC/A:  David Johnson, Chris Carson, Philip Lindsay and Malcom Brown.  Now compare to they guys at 2.5: which includes  Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, Aaron Jones.  Is it the O-line that is significantly superior in, say, Houston than in Tennessee to account for those extra 7 inches?

 

How about in AZ?  Chase Edmunds came in at 2.7, then there is a HUGE dropoff to Kenyan Drake (who rushed for 500 more yards) at 2.3.  O-line didn't feel it for Drake like they did for Edmunds?  

 

ATL had a whopping 2.9 for Ito Smith, but a dismal 1.7 for Todd Gurley.

 

Baltimore?  Dobbins got a top ranked 3.1, yet the same O-line could only get Gus Edwards 2.3 (they rushed for 805 and 723, resp)?

 

Cleveland's Line blocks for Chubb to the tune of  a hefty 2.9, yet they do Hunt no favors at an anemic 1.9 (yet they had 1067 and 841 yards)?

 

 

 

 

I didn't watch every play of the above RB's like I do the Bills so I can't give you the context.  We both watched the games last year and know that we had defenders in the backfield or there wasn't any holes....it was a season long issue.  Yet the year before when Singletary averaged 5.1 ypc....do you know think the YBC made a difference?  It was just under a full difference between 2019 to 2020.

 

I'm more commenting on your statement that a 3 feet or one stride doesn't really make a difference.  It's basically saying that if you beat your man by a step, the results don't change that much.

[Punching Bag]

46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He wasn't performing because they went away from his skillset. They didn't bring Quinton Spain in to zone block. That isn't his game. I agree his behaviour after he was benched was none too impressive and at that point I understand why they cut bait. 

 

Oh and take it from someone who has suffered with plantar fasciitis it is seriously beeping painful!  

 

It was not that, he had no issue passing medical exam for Bengals.

 

Oh and I was misdiagnosed with plantar fasciitis and diagnosis was wrong.

Fortunately doctor realized it when he started treated me for it and I was almost crippled and had a MRI done.

Had a cyst size of a golf ball wrapped around ankle bones, sinews and blood vessels.

It took doctors 8 years to figure it out.

Doctors are artists not scientists. 

 

[starrymessenger]

I look forward to seeing what Breida can bring to this offence as a speed back and how Daboll/Allen will be able to use him. He is obviously far from an every down back but he doesn’t need to be that here either, maybe more a change of pace. He’s a hard working player who has pretty much done his best to improve his game. He was not a receiving target in college but he has developed into a very good option in the passing game, which is what the Bills O is all about. He’s also worked hard in pass pro and is adequate at least so that DC’s can’t necessarily assume a limited number of possible play-calls when he is in the backfield. 

Thing is his productivity as a NFL back is pretty much correlated with the strength of his O-line. He played behind one of the best lines in SF. Contrary to what you might expect from a smallish speed back, he was mostly run up the middle of the field. His game was not end runs/sweeps and looking to turn a corner. The SF line opened holes whether inside or off tackle and he wasted no time hitting them. He was also stuffed at the line quite a bit. 

Looks to me that his troubles in Miami probably had more to do with the fact that despite attempts to improve what was probably the worst line in the NFL in 2019, the Finns weren’t able to get it done in 2020 (maybe not surprising starting three rooks).

The Bills have decent talent on the O-line. Whether or not the player combos work and are logical or not from a run game schematic perspective is another matter but I expect Breida to bounce back somewhat this year running the ball and I would hope that he can help open up the playbook a little. How he works out may also provide a good comparison of how Shanahan and Daboll stack up. KS was clearly able to play to Breida’s strengths.

Edited June 30, 2021 by starrymessenger

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I didn't watch every play of the above RB's like I do the Bills so I can't give you the context.  We both watched the games last year and know that we had defenders in the backfield or there wasn't any holes....it was a season long issue.  Yet the year before when Singletary averaged 5.1 ypc....do you know think the YBC made a difference?  It was just under a full difference between 2019 to 2020.

 

I'm more commenting on your statement that a 3 feet or one stride doesn't really make a difference.  It's basically saying that if you beat your man by a step, the results don't change that much.

 

I'm saying that, as a stat for judging the quality of your O-line, re: run blocking, it is not useful.  I have pointed out why with examples that the OP posted in his link.

 

As for the 3 feet (1 yard, in this discussion), that encompassed over 30 RBs' data.  The difference between those 30+ RBs is divided into 10ths of a yard--literally 3.6 inches separates each group.  

 

It's meaningless for that reason alone, plus the reasons I showed where RBs on the same teams, behind the same O-lines had wildly different results.

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I'm saying that, as a stat for judging the quality of your O-line, re: run blocking, it is not useful.  I have pointed out why with examples that the OP posted in his link.

 

As for the 3 feet (1 yard, in this discussion), that encompassed over 30 RBs' data.  The difference between those 30+ RBs is divided into 10ths of a yard--literally 3.6 inches separates each group.  

 

It's meaningless for that reason alone, plus the reasons I showed where RBs on the same teams, behind the same O-lines had wildly different results.

 

Sigh....

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They don't have the right blockers for the runners they have and they don't have the right runners for the blockers they have. I'm not quite sure how they have got here but conceptually it just doesn't all quite hang together - scheme, personnel, formation - it is just a bit muddled. Originally they signed Spain and Feliciano and I assumed power run game. But Morse isn't a fit for that and nor is Singletary who they drafted. So last year they draft Moss, more of a direct running power style back. And yet they then jettison Spain, try to move to more of a zone blocking run game and yet at one point had Morse benched for Feliciano and Winters. It has just all felt a little confused. 

I agree that's what you see and think, I've thought the same thing.   But see my long post.   I think they have a different vision.  I think their vision is that they will get the best football players they can get, every year, and the coaches will figure out how to maximize the returns on the talent they have.   They aren't looking for round pegs and round holes.   Beane is just dumping the best talent he can find on McDermott and saying, "here, you're the chef."