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Cynthia Frelund's Analytics Based Mock Draft


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I found it interesting. I don't know how resistant NFL fans are to analytics as I'm more familiar with the vitriol they receive from baseball fans, but I always think these types of things carry some value, if for no other reason than to give an alternate perspective. No "I like this guy because of X" or anything like that. Pure numbers.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/cynthia-frelund-2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-who-teams-should-draft-to-win-now

 

I'd be pretty surprised to see Wilson and Fields go that low and I'm not enthused over the Pats getting Trey Lance so let's hope that doesn't happen.

 

For the TL;DR she has us taking OT Teven Jenkins as the best upgrade to our roster from what would be available.

Edited by Boxcar
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I actually see Fields sliding, without a combine people will be gun shy. He had a lackluster year at Georgia (not his fault I know but it's on his resume), a great year at OSU then last year with Covid and all he didn't really do all that well if you take the Clemson game away.

 

I know if Surtain Jr slid to 19-20 range I would love buffalo to go get him.

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I sure hope her draft falls this way and Zaven Collins is there at 30. Beane better have Rich Eisen ready to run card to commissioner. I'd be okay with resigning Williams and targeting the interior of the line later in the draft. Fingers crossed 

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I can't stand Cynthia Frelund.  Something about her is extremely unlikable.  Her predictions before each game of "301.7 yards passing" instead of simply rounding to the nearest 5 yards is very annoying for some reason. Who predicts passing and rushing yards to the exact yardage?  I get it that she types everything into a program and comes up with these numbers, but c'mon.  

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6 minutes ago, TBBills said:

As long as it isn't a RB.

 

I understand (I think) your point, but are you saying you legitimately wouldn't take McCaffrey in the Buffalo backfield? Because, Etienne might be that player...

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15 minutes ago, TBBills said:

As long as it isn't a RB.

 

 

So if Alvin Kamara was available in this draft at #30, you would pass on him?

 

There's a big difference between a weapon and a runner.

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1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I sure hope her draft falls this way and Zaven Collins is there at 30. Beane better have Rich Eisen ready to run card to commissioner. I'd be okay with resigning Williams and targeting the interior of the line later in the draft. Fingers crossed 

Where would you play Collins?  He is big enough to play 4-3 DE, but is he good enough there for pick 30?  I know the league is moving more and more to positionless D, but I guess that make me uncomfortable.

 

55 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

I understand (I think) your point, but are you saying you legitimately wouldn't take McCaffrey in the Buffalo backfield? Because, Etienne might be that player...

I am in the group that thinks RBs are NOT a dime a dozen, but I think the Bills’ OL is a much bigger problem in the run game than Singletary and Moss were.  I think you would be wasting a year or more of the short RB career of a top back behind this OL and that is before we know if they will lose one or more starting OL in FA.

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13 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Where would you play Collins?  He is big enough to play 4-3 DE, but is he good enough there for pick 30?  I know the league is moving more and more to positionless D, but I guess that make me uncomfortable.

 

I am in the group that thinks RBs are NOT a dime a dozen, but I think the Bills’ OL is a much bigger problem in the run game than Singletary and Moss were.  I think you would be wasting a year or more of the short RB career of a top back behind this OL and that is before we know if they will lose one or more starting OL in FA.

I would slot Collins right next to Edmunds @100% of the defensive plays.  He’s adept in coverage, playing the run and rushing the qb imo. 
 

I feel that his size makes his ideal fit as an OLB in a 4-3, but his skill set fits perfectly as a 3 down lb in a 4-3.  He’s can do it all.  
 

I agree with the OL comment as well, but I feel that Beane will take BPA at a position of need and RB may be included in that.  If Harris/etienne/Williams are available and they are the BPA in our board, I think they will be the pick.  
 

I view a 1st rd RB as a 5 year lottery ticket for this team with winning a SB in that span as the only objective.  I don’t think that we’d give that RB an extension, just use him to be a major part of our offense en route to winning a SB during his rookie contract

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7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I would slot Collins right next to Edmunds @100% of the defensive plays.  He’s adept in coverage, playing the run and rushing the qb imo. 
 

I feel that his size makes his ideal fit as an OLB in a 4-3, but his skill set fits perfectly as a 3 down lb in a 4-3.  He’s can do it all.  
 

I agree with the OL comment as well, but I feel that Beane will take BPA at a position of need and RB may be included in that.  If Harris/etienne/Williams are available and they are the BPA in our board, I think they will be the pick.  
 

I view a 1st rd RB as a 5 year lottery ticket for this team with winning a SB in that span as the only objective.  I don’t think that we’d give that RB an extension, just use him to be a major part of our offense en route to winning a SB during his rookie contract

 

I think it would be an adjustment. He is much better going towards the line of scrimmage than playing sideline to sideline like Milano. If the are playing that same 4-2-5 then it would be an adjustment for Collins. I like him and long term I think you could develop him into that. His talent is undeniable.

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1 minute ago, eball said:

But is she hot or not?


her hard work in the gym is evident, but I feel that she should get a nose job.  👃 

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Just now, NewEra said:


her hard work in the gym is evident, but I feel that she should get a nose job.  👃 

 

Definitely a tweener.

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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it would be an adjustment. He is much better going towards the line of scrimmage than playing sideline to sideline like Milano. If the are playing that same 4-2-5 then it would be an adjustment for Collins. I like him and long term I think you could develop him into that. His talent is undeniable.

 


He’s definitely better attacking the LOS rather than dropping back, but his instincts, from what I’ve seen, seem to pop as his reaction time really stands out.  He makes great breaks on pass routes in the passing game.  While attacking the LOS looks to be his area of supreme strength, he looks comfortable in coverage most of the time. 

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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 


He’s definitely better attacking the LOS rather than dropping back, but his instincts, from what I’ve seen, seem to pop as his reaction time really stands out.  He makes great breaks on pass routes in the passing game.  While attacking the LOS looks to be his area of supreme strength, he looks comfortable in coverage most of the time. 

 

He can drop into shallow zones. But that is kind of what Tremaine does for us. Milano's role is a lot of side to side. That at this point is not Collins's forte IMO. If the Bills draft him and play him at linebacker they need to go back to more of a standard 4-3 and use Collins the way they used Zo.

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He can drop into shallow zones. But that is kind of what Tremaine does for us. Milano's role is a lot of side to side. That at this point is not Collins's forte IMO. If the Bills draft him and play him at linebacker they need to go back to more of a standard 4-3 and use Collins the way they used Zo.

Interesting.  If that’s really the case, he’s probably not even on our board.....unless they play him inside and put Tremaine in the position to run sideline to sideline.  It may benefit Tremaine. 
 

I see Edmunds as being slow to react sitting in that zone and is picked on constantly.  Teams target him in the pass game as his recognition isn’t plus, yet.  IIRC,  QBs had a 130+ rating targeting him this season.   His stop to start explosiveness/recognition isn’t nearly that of Collins’.   
 

While Edmunds’ role in our defense needs to change, imo, I expect more of the same.  I have nightmares of that Kc game and Mahomes throwing pass after pass to wide open receivers with Edmunds running in space 

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1 hour ago, chknwing334 said:

I can't stand Cynthia Frelund.  Something about her is extremely unlikable.  Her predictions before each game of "301.7 yards passing" instead of simply rounding to the nearest 5 yards is very annoying for some reason. Who predicts passing and rushing yards to the exact yardage?  I get it that she types everything into a program and comes up with these numbers, but c'mon.  

I like her because she always looks so uncomfortable talking to that guy with the big ears and it's amusing, plus her score predictions are magical. Every score is like 24-21.

 

Being said, she's hot and she offers something different so I like that she's in the scene.

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4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Interesting.  If that’s really the case, he’s probably not even on our board.....unless they play him inside and put Tremaine in the position to run sideline to sideline.  It may benefit Tremaine. 
 

I see Edmunds as being slow to react sitting in that zone and is picked on constantly.  Teams target him in the pass game as his recognition isn’t plus, yet.  IIRC,  QBs had a 130+ rating targeting him this season.   His stop to start explosiveness/recognition isn’t nearly that of Collins’.   
 

While Edmunds’ role in our defense needs to change, imo, I expect more of the same.  I have nightmares of that Kc game and Mahomes throwing pass after pass to wide open receivers with Edmunds running in space 

 

I agree. I wouldn't be adverse to that. I just don't think the Bills have any interest in changing Tremaine's position.

 

I wouldn't hate drafting Collins. So much talent there. I wouldn't love drafting him just trying to slot him into Milano's spot.

Edited by GunnerBill
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