2020 MVP Race - Has Mahomes been incredibly lucky?

[nucci]

every great player gets lucky at times

[ganesh]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Sadly you are right. It's a disgrace that some "football writers" have a vote for MVP but are too lazy to dive into the details of each players game. I mean it's only three players you have to go in depth on.

I am sure they are following the criteria laid out to them in making their decisions.

[PrimeTime101]

18 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I think he should be more like a coin flip.

See and I think its not quite that close.

[The Wiz]

18 hours ago, balln said:

its a stat award unfortunately 

This is part of the problem. Most valuable. 

 

Barkley isn't winning 8 games in a full season with this team. 

 

Meanwhile GB has the best oline, one of the best rb for yards per att and best TD per reception wrs in the league. 

 

Mahomes has the best TE and fastest WR in the league and one of, if not the best, coaches in the league. 

 

Allen has done more with less which is why his value should be higher but it's not because they mostly just look at the box score and stat sheet. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by The Wiz

[Doc]

21 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

This is part of the problem. Most valuable. 

 

Barkley isn't winning 8 games in a full season with this team. 

 

Meanwhile GB has the best oline, one of the best rb for yards per att and best TD per reception wrs in the league. 

 

Mahomes has the best TE and fastest WR in the league and one of, if not the best, coaches in the league. 

 

Allen has done more with less which is why his value should be higher but it's not because they mostly just look at the box score and stat sheet. 

 

Yup.  If they were to take into account Josh being injured for 4 games and the quality of opponents/defenses, Josh would win running away.

[The Wiz]

20 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Yup.  If they were to take into account Josh being injured for 4 games and the quality of opponents/defenses, Josh would win running away.

This is something that has really been confusing to me.  Local media knew he was injured, it's been pointed on social media to national media that he was injured, yet when they go back to that stretch of games where he looked off they never mention it.  I think Simms is the only one that I've heard bring it up.

Edited January 2, 2021 by The Wiz

[Doc]

9 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

This is something that has really been confusing to me.  Local media knew he was injured, it's been pointed on social media to national media that he was injured, yet when they go back to that stretch of games where he looked off they never mention it.  I think Simms is the only one that I've heard bring it up.

 

Because they really want to give it to Rodgers or Mahomes.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

Because they really want to give it to Rodgers or Mahomes.

 

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

 

[without a drought]

So the MVP should be based on plays that didn't really happen? 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, without a drought said:

So the MVP should be based on plays that didn't really happen? 

It should be based on who has great stats and at the same time the most value to their team while being on a playoff bound team. It's really a pretty simple concept but for some reason people have a lot of difficulty with the "valuable" part. To me the discussion between Mahomes and Allen is pretty simple. The overall stats are close enough that they are a complete wash. Mahomes leads Allen by 1.8 points in passer rating and 1 point in QBR. Not a significant difference.

 

But it seems clear to me that Allen is more valuable. He isn't playing with two all pro caliber receivers. The rest of the rosters are a wash. Allen and the Bills have had to build this entire offense from the ground up with unknowns at every coaching position on the offensive side. Mahomes took over an already good offense with weapons and an all time great offensive coach. 

 

Mahomes is in a slump for the entire month of December. The time of year where you want to be playing well. Allen has played lights out for the entire month of December.

 

Now Rodgers, that's another story. His passer rating is so much higher you could maybe make a case that the outside factors beyond pure player stats do not matter. But then again, all three players are pretty close in QBR still. Rodgers 83.9, Mahomes 82.7 and Allen 81.6

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

It should be based on who has great stats and at the same time the most value to their team while being on a playoff bound team. It's really a pretty simple concept but for some reason people have a lot of difficulty with the "valuable" part. To me the discussion between Mahomes and Allen is pretty simple. The overall stats are close enough that they are a complete wash. Mahomes leads Allen by 1.8 points in passer rating and 1 point in QBR. Not a significant difference.

 

But it seems clear to me that Allen is more valuable. He isn't playing with two all pro caliber receivers. The rest of the rosters are a wash. Allen and the Bills have had to build this entire offense from the ground up with unknowns at every coaching position on the offensive side. Mahomes took over an already good offense with weapons and an all time great offensive coach. 

 

Mahomes is in a slump for the entire month of December. The time of year where you want to be playing well. Allen has played lights out for the entire month of December.

 

Now Rodgers, that's another story. His passer rating is so much higher you could maybe make a case that the outside factors beyond pure player stats do not matter. But then again, all three players are pretty close in QBR still. Rodgers 83.9, Mahomes 82.7 and Allen 81.6

That's largely because passer rating is greatly influenced by TDs thrown and doesn't take into account rushing TDs. If Allen had thrown for his 8 rush TDs his passer rating would be within about 8 points of Rodgers at 111.