Overview of 2020 rookies

[Mat68]

On 11/19/2020 at 1:33 PM, matter2003 said:

 

A little crazy that Justin Jefferson the WR Minnesota took with our pick at 22 has been almost as good as a rookie...he has 42 catches for a whopping 762 yards, good for 18.1 yards per reception, including 4 100+ yard games...he is definitely someone to watch over the next few years...

 

That being said, no way we could have known that and we already know what Diggs had the potential to be and what he already was...plenty of receivers who have had a great 1st year and then regressed from there....not predicting it with Jefferson, but it wouldn't be the first time it happened...

Different dynamic.  Theilan and Cook teams gameplan against.  Cousins and Jefferson are the 2 players teams make beat them.  Diggs is our number 1 most targeted player.  He is top in the league in catches and yards.  Not even close imo.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Mat68

[JGMcD2]

32 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Simple answer is because a good QB hides deficiencies elsewhere on the team. 

 

Where would the Bills be right now without Josh Allen? He is the reason this team is 7-3 and not 4-6/3-7.

 

The organization has heavily invested into the defense to this point and their defense is average at best....

Okay... well until this season Josh wasn’t seen as a good QB. 
 

So what about last year when you have roughly 7/22 starters on a playoff caliber team that were drafted by Beane that are known as mediocre or below average? Wouldn’t that be an issue? 
 

Defense across the league is down, not to mention our schedule has seen us face 3 of the top MVP candidates at QB. I agree it’s been frustrating to watch but they’ve undoubtedly improved as the season has gone on. Invested heavily in the defense is a loaded statement... yes the contracts are large and there’s money tied up there... but Beane structures them so they’re pretty much 1 year deals with options and very minimal repercussions moving forward. The money can be made liquid very quickly. 
 

A lot of people don’t really recognize that the talent pool in free agency is limited. Yes, they’re giving these guys deals because that’s who they’re limited to sign. Supply and demand. It’s that simple. If there was a better fit, I’m sure they’d explore it. But you can’t just make one appear. 

[Buddo]

46 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Simple answer is because a good QB hides deficiencies elsewhere on the team. 

 

Where would the Bills be right now without Josh Allen? He is the reason this team is 7-3 and not 4-6/3-7.

 

The organization has heavily invested into the defense to this point and their defense is average at best....

 

This isn't entirely unfair, but it also doesn't alter the fact that they have improved the offense immeasurably.

 

The 'heavily invested' D, was very good last year, and have had definite continuity issues this year, starting with Star opting out.

 

I think he's been badly missed, not so much because he was a stellar performer, but more that he was solid, and other guys were able to play off of him - especially Phillips last year. I believe the guys they brought in to replace Phillips and Lawson, were intended to be used in a similar fashion, that hasn't materialized due to the absent Star.

 

Injuries haven't helped either, yet there has been noticeable improvements recently, in that guys are starting to make important plays again, even if the overall numbers don't look good still. I'm hopeful that with the bye week upon us, we can get a healthier team on the field, for the important run in.

[folz]

In relation to the Diggs trade, just as you have to weigh in the difference of money (between Diggs' contract and a rookie contract) and the other assets that money and those picks could have garnered---as one poster pointed out---and despite a lot of the rookies looking very good---you also have to weigh in the following factors on Diggs' side of the trade:

 

1. Veteran knowledge: We all know that it is a tough transition for many players to the NFL, there is a lot you need to learn. Diggs already has that, the rookies have a long way to go to understand all of the nuances of the league, even if their overall numbers are decent. They are still learning. A lot more goes into being an All-Pro WR than just number of yards.

2. Great downfield blocker: How many rookies are willing, let alone good at blocking early in their career?

3. Confidence/Competitiveness: Yes, I'm sure that some of the young guys are ultra-competitive too, but do they have the knowledge/confidence yet to let their competitiveness always be at 100%, like Stefon?

4. Being a true Number One: Despite having other good players around him (Brown and Bease), Defensive Coordinators go into Bills games trying to gameplan against Diggs. He is leading the league, despite being the guy other teams are trying to shut down. And despite the rooks putting up some decent numbers, very few of them are the #1 player on their team that defenses are trying to take away. They are most likely getting softer coverage and #2 or #3 CBs. Stefon is getting the best every week.

5. Veteran Leadership: I doubt any of the rookies are one of the big leaders on their teams yet. Stefon, despite being new to the team, is already a major leader in the locker room and on the field. He raises the play of others around him.

 

Now, some of the rookies will eventually share all of those traits and become beasts in this league. But it may take another 2-3 years before they do. They may put up great stats in their first couple of years, but it will be some time before they can bring everything to the table that Stefon does right now. So, we basically traded that extra money and picks for time and certainty. We got the fully-developed stud now, rather than having to wait 3-5 years for a young guy to develop into that.

[folz]

21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Thankfully he hit on Josh Allen.... it's allowed him to be pretty mediocre with every other pick which he has been to this point.... 

 

I'd argue Whaleys drafts were better. He just whiffed at the QB position.(And nothing else matters) 

 

Let's take a look...

 

I'm giving them 3 drafts each as GM (not counting 2017 for Whaley since its hard to tell how much was him and how much was McDermott. And Whaley may have been very influential in some of the Nix drafts, but again, it is hard to know. So, I am only looking at his drafts where he was the unquestionable man-in-charge.)

 

WHALEY                                             BEANE

2014                                                   2018

Sammy Watkins                               Josh Allen

Cyrus Kouandjio                               Tremaine Edmunds

Preston Brown                                  Harrison Phillips

Ross Cockerel                                  Taron Johnson 

Cyril Richardson                               Siran Neal

Randell Johnson                              Wyatt Teller

Seantrel Henderson                        Ray-Ray McCloud

                                                           Austin Proehl

 

2015                                                  2019

Ronald Darby                                   Ed Oliver

John Miller                                       Cody Ford

Karlos Williams                               Devin Singletary

Tony Steward                                  Dawson Knox

Nick O'Leary                                    Vosean Joseph

Dezmin Lewis                                 Jaquan Johnson

                                                          Darryl Johnson

                                                          Tommy Sweeney

 

2016                                                 2020

Shaq Lawson                                  A. J. Epenesa 

Reggie Ragland                              Zack Moss

Aldolphus Washington                 Gabriel Davis

Cardale Jones                                Jake Fromm

Jonathan Williams                        Tyler Bass

Kolby Listenbee                              Isaiah Hodgins

Kevon Seymour                              Dane Jackson

 

It's still so early to judge a lot of Beane's picks (good or bad) yet, but it is hard to look at Whaley's picks and think he was better than, well...just about anyone. I count no studs, maybe  one solid starter (Shaq), and maybe 4-5 fringe starters (may have started at some point in their career, but always looking to be upgraded). Shaq Lawson is probably his best pick and even he was a disappointment due to where he was picked. I'd love to hear your argument about how Whaley picked better than Beane. I just don't see it (even if you take the QB out of the equation...the fact that Beane found a franchise guy and Whaley didn't, as you said---despite that probably being the most important thing that a GM needs to do in today's NFL).

 

If you did want to add in the Nix/Whaley combo (even though Nix was the GM and Whaley the Asst. GM) then out of 26 picks (across the 2011-2013 drafts), the best picks were: Aaron Williams (though he wasn't very good at the position he was drafted for, but became a very good safety), Stephon Gilmore, Cordy Glenn, Nigel Bradham, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Kiko Alonso. They also busted hard with Marcel and E.J. Manuel as first round picks.

 

So, even if you include the Nix years on Whaley's resume, you have 2 studs (Gilmore and Woods), maybe 2 other starters (A. Williams and Shaq), and then maybe 8 fringe starters. Out of 46 overall picks. I think your average fan could pick better than he did. 

[Don Otreply]

On 11/19/2020 at 1:42 PM, Motorin' said:

 

But do the Bills ever really compete for the top tier FA's? We tend to overpay for average starters and never really compete for Top 3 players (in their prime) at impact positions. The trade for Diggs was about the only way to bring bone fide level of talent to the team.  

Its hard for a team to shed the reputation that 17 years of futility creates, that’s why we have had to over pay FAs, if they even consider Buffalo at all. It is going to take likely two more winning seasons with playoff runs and conference titles to fully shed the, “  being Billsy “ thing, crappy teams reps last a long time... it is changing, but it will take more time than fans want to accept. 
 

Go Bills!!!!

[Don Otreply]

5 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I’m just kind of confused... how can Beane have 7 players over 3 drafts that are starting on a playoff caliber team that are mediocre to below average. 
 

If 7/22 starters are mediocre on this team are mediocre then that’s a real serious issue. They can’t be mediocre or below average otherwise the team wouldn’t be performing at a high level. 

Ya gotta remember Scottlaw has descriptive hyperbole issues,  he likes to over/under state players abilities/ impact, nuthin but luv Scott... we all got issues 😁

 

Go Bills!!!

[BarleyNY]

On 11/19/2020 at 10:43 AM, Your Brown Eye said:

 

 

Once in a lifetime is the Steelers 1974 draft class. 4 of their first 5 picks were HOF's.

That’s back when the Steelers were pioneering steroid use in the NFL.  (There were no rules against them yet.). It is no coincidence that the Steelers had some “phenomenal” draft classes in the 70s though. 

[Ya Digg?]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

That’s back when the Steelers were pioneering steroid use in the NFL.  (There were no rules against them yet.). It is no coincidence that the Steelers had some “phenomenal” draft classes in the 70s though. 

It’s amazing to me that so many people think these guys weren’t doing things to their bodies back in the 70’s/80’s...they absolutely were because they knew they couldn’t be caught. That’s why they can fake shock/anger/disappointment when current guys get caught. It’s the whole looking at the past through rose colored glasses syndrome 

Edited November 22, 2020 by Ya Digg?

[JGMcD2]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Just look at individual players he's drafted.

 

Allen's a star and that's the reason Beane deserves high praise....Small sample size but his other picks in rounds 1-3 have been mediocre and no real impact player. 

 

Last year they played half a schedule against journeyman/back up QBs. 

Well you asserted that Whaley had better drafts... go look at the individual players he drafted... Beane’s drafts have been fine. 
 

yes, they did. So I’m gonna venture to guess the truth is somewhere in the middle? 

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I was thinking more of the Nix/Whaley regime and several of his players drafted looked like studs right out the gate(Dareus, Watkins, Kiko). But yes you are right. His drafts were mostly duds.

 

Yes, it's early, but outside of Allen Beanes drafts look very mediocre. 

He is going to have to do a better job hitting on impact players early in the draft and use of FA $$$ when they pay Allen.

 

Several of the guys Beane has drafted/brought in here have struggled or been underwhelming to this point. Specifically defensively. Again, they are where they are mostly due to Josh Allen. 

 

 

So your argument is based on the fact that Nix/Whaley’s drafts had guys come out of the gate playing above average and then busted? I mean that doesn’t make much sense. A few guys had good returns in season 1-2 and that makes them good draft picks forever? 
 

If you believe in a thing called player development, which actually exists, Beane’s drafts are fine. If they’re competitive with Josh and all of these “below average” picks, imagine when Beane finally gets 1, just 1 average to above average player in the draft. 
 

 

[TBBills]

10 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

No that has nothing to do with my argument.... independent of Whaley/Nix, Beanes drafts/FAs, while early look pretty pedestrian.... again it's all good because he picked Josh Allen and his play has made up for the otherwise average FAs/drafts to this point. 

It's all about drafting the right QB... 

[SCBills]

22 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Okay... well until this season Josh wasn’t seen as a good QB. 
 

So what about last year when you have roughly 7/22 starters on a playoff caliber team that were drafted by Beane that are known as mediocre or below average? Wouldn’t that be an issue? 
 

Defense across the league is down, not to mention our schedule has seen us face 3 of the top MVP candidates at QB. I agree it’s been frustrating to watch but they’ve undoubtedly improved as the season has gone on. Invested heavily in the defense is a loaded statement... yes the contracts are large and there’s money tied up there... but Beane structures them so they’re pretty much 1 year deals with options and very minimal repercussions moving forward. The money can be made liquid very quickly. 
 

A lot of people don’t really recognize that the talent pool in free agency is limited. Yes, they’re giving these guys deals because that’s who they’re limited to sign. Supply and demand. It’s that simple. If there was a better fit, I’m sure they’d explore it. But you can’t just make one appear. 

Defense is certainly down across the league, but we still rank towards the bottom of the league amidst the same climate every one else has faced.  
 

Yes, we’ve faced a lot of good teams, but we also got the Jets twice.  
 

Beane could never have anticipated the Star opt-out, and clearly assembled some “year to year/easy to cut” DL contracts with Star playing this year in mind, but the NFL is a league of attrition and losing one (non-QB) player can never be so disastrous that the entire unit becomes an abject disaster... that is ultimately on Beane/McDermott and how they built this defense.  

 

That said, I don’t think this defense is beyond repair this year.  They’ve show signs of life in the past two games against high powered offenses, but it’s clear that they were probably very overrated in 2019 due to the easy schedule, and it’s also clear that this much money cannot be spent on a defense that puts this product on the field in 2020.  
 

I expect them to be better in this stretch run and into the playoffs.  However, I also expect a lot of turnover in this front 7 over the offseason.  Justifiably so.  
 

Murphy will likely walk. Milano likely walks as well. 2/3 of Butler, Jefferson, Harry should probably be cut.  
 

Get Star back, draft a mid-round rotational DT and take a LB with one of our Top 100 picks to replace Milano.  
 

Secondary drafting/scouting saves them, as they’ve got Tre and a strong safety duo, and have found guys like Johnson, Jackson and Wallace.  I wouldn’t be opposed to Beane taking secondary players every year in the mid-late rounds.   He seems to have an eye for them.  
 

Epenesa, Oliver and Edmunds continuing to develop needs to happen given where they were drafted.  We can’t be missing on those picks if we want to have a good defense the rest of this year and into the future. 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2020 by SCBills