CorkScrewHill Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 I tend to agree with Chris Simms on his choices. Can't believe the passing number line is so low - so would be my choice for best bet. Curious what others believe is the safest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Somebody needs to do Chris Sims a favor and snip off his top button. He’s consistently high on Josh, and I hope he’s right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 I'm pretty sure you can get the 211.5 difference in drops alone from last year. Diggs has got to be worth a 300+ increase at minimum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Augie said: Somebody needs to do Chris Sims a favor and snip off his top button. That's his deal. He has a podcast called Unbuttoned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Here are the 2020 props if you need em courtesy of DraftKings- O/U yards for the season- 3300.5 OVER O/U TDs for the season- 21.5 OVER O/U yards rushing for the season- 500 UNDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Here are the 2020 props if you need em courtesy of DraftKings- O/U yards for the season- 3300.5 OVER O/U TDs for the season- 21.5 OVER O/U yards rushing for the season- 500 UNDER He had 29 total touchdowns last year, his offense improved in every tangible way, and they're putting it at 21.5? Short of Injury that seems like cash in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, whatdrought said: He had 29 total touchdowns last year, his offense improved in every tangible way, and they're putting it at 21.5? Short of Injury that seems like cash in the bank. I think it’s for passing TDs only, not total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Just now, GoBills808 said: I think it’s for passing TDs only, not total Even then, that's a 2 TD increase in passing TD gets you the over, right? Still seems like safe money if he's healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, whatdrought said: I'm pretty sure you can get the 211.5 difference in drops alone from last year. Diggs has got to be worth a 300+ increase at minimum! He was 31st in pass attempts per game last year. I can see him averaging 5 more attempts per game. If he also improves his completion percent to 62%, that puts him over 3,800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Even then, that's a 2 TD increase in passing TD gets you the over, right? Still seems like safe money if he's healthy. Yeah that’s a really weak line. >21 is easy if he’s healthy. Edited May 21, 2020 by FireChans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Even then, that's a 2 TD increase in passing TD gets you the over, right? Still seems like safe money if he's healthy. Yes. I would parlay these three since they all inform each other tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paup 1995MVP Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Here are the 2020 props if you need em courtesy of DraftKings- O/U yards for the season- 3300.5 OVER O/U TDs for the season- 21.5 OVER O/U yards rushing for the season- 500 UNDER Is that just passing TD's or total TD's? The first two o/u's are pretty insulting to Josh Allen and the Bills offense. If he can't throw at least in the high 3,000's for yards and in the high 20's for passing TD's we have a big problem, unless our running game is circa late 1970's Houston Oilers. And that seems doubtful in today's NFL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Just now, Paup 1995MVP said: Is that just passing TD's or total TD's? The first two o/u's are pretty insulting to Josh Allen and the Bills offense. If he can't throw at least in the high 3,000's for yards and in the high 20's for passing TD's we have a big problem, unless our running game is circa late 1970's Houston Oilers. And that seems doubtful in today's NFL. passing TDs I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paup 1995MVP Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 I like both overs. What are the odds on both of those? I think he may go over on rushing yards as well. Would like to see it. But he needs to be smart when he runs, and tuck the ball away!! Simms is a big Josh Allen fan. Didn't he get arrested driving high w his pregnant wife in the car years ago? Oh to be young dumb and full of *****. lol My son got pretty good odds on Josh Allen winning the NFL MVP I seem to recall. I will have to find out from him what the line was for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Passing yards? Over Passing TDs? Over Rushing yards? That is where I hesitate. Josh didn't have fewer rushing yards in 2019 because he ran less. Indeed he ran more. He had fewer rushing yards because teams defended him differently. A lot of his 2018 rush yards were running up the middle of the field. Well teams adjusted and took that away. Easier to do when you don't think the Bills weapons outside can beat you. Try doubling Stefon Diggs and still spying Allen in the middle? Well now the Bills are playing 9 on 8 in their favour everywhere else. Stefon Diggs's presence could get rid of some of those spys and open up the running lanes for Josh again to break off some of those big ones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billl Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Passing yards? Over Passing TDs? Over Rushing yards? That is where I hesitate. Josh didn't have fewer rushing yards in 2019 because he ran less. Indeed he ran more. He had fewer rushing yards because teams defended him differently. A lot of his 2018 rush yards were running up the middle of the field. Well teams adjusted and took that away. Easier to do when you don't think the Bills weapons outside can beat you. Try doubling Stefon Diggs and still spying Allen in the middle? Well now the Bills are playing 9 on 8 in their favour everywhere else. Stefon Diggs's presence could get rid of some of those spys and open up the running lanes for Josh again to break off some of those big ones. I’d go over, over, under. Josh had 7.4 rushes per game and 53 YPG in 2018. That decreased to 6.8 and 32 last year. I would expect the number of attempts to continue decreasing. His YPC may increase somewhat as that happens, but I don’t think it will be enough to offset the reduced attempts. He will have a top 10 set of targets to throw to. There’s no reason he should need to run more than 5 times per game on average. Fromm and Barkley aren’t going to win games if he goes down, so McDermott and Daboll will need to limit his exposure to hits. I think they’ll work to find a balance between running just enough to be a perceived threat but not relying on it the way they have in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 I'd take the over on all three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 52 minutes ago, MJS said: I'd take the over on all three. See I think I would too. I think there will be more running lanes open to Josh on scrambles than last year because if Diggs has success early you will find that extra defender dropping out of the box a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 2 hours ago, MJS said: I'd take the over on all three. Then parlay those w/NFL MVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 56 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Then parlay those w/NFL MVP Then flush your money down the toilet. MVP lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 7 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Passing yards? Over Passing TDs? Over Rushing yards? That is where I hesitate. Josh didn't have fewer rushing yards in 2019 because he ran less. Indeed he ran more. He had fewer rushing yards because teams defended him differently. A lot of his 2018 rush yards were running up the middle of the field. Well teams adjusted and took that away. Easier to do when you don't think the Bills weapons outside can beat you. Try doubling Stefon Diggs and still spying Allen in the middle? Well now the Bills are playing 9 on 8 in their favour everywhere else. Stefon Diggs's presence could get rid of some of those spys and open up the running lanes for Josh again to break off some of those big ones. I think that is PART of the explanation. But Josh didn't run with the same reckless abandon last year, as he did as a rookie, IMO. He was smarter while running (to protect his health, I imagine) which resulted in fewer yards, IMO. Defenses probably played a part, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloFan32 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Apologies if this was already covered but what happens to these numbers if the season is shortened? For the record, I would take the over on the TDs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 43 minutes ago, FireChans said: Then flush your money down the toilet. MVP lol. So maybe like 3700 yards passing, 600 yards rushing, 28 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs, something along those lines to hit the overs right That's total 4300 yards and 40 TDs For reference, Jackson did 4333 total yards and 43 TDs for unanimous MVP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: So maybe like 3700 yards passing, 600 yards rushing, 28 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs, something along those lines to hit the overs right That's total 4300 yards and 40 TDs For reference, Jackson did 4333 total yards and 43 TDs for unanimous MVP For reference, Lamar Jackson won 14 games and commanded the #1 offense in the NFL. Also not sure about where the 12 RTD’s came from. Would that be one of the best rushing TD seasons in NFL history by a QB? Edited May 22, 2020 by FireChans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Just now, FireChans said: For reference, Lamar Jackson won 14 games and commanded the #1 offense in the NFL. And what do you think imagine will happen w/ the Bills if Allen hits those numbers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Just now, GoBills808 said: And what do you think imagine will happen w/ the Bills if Allen hits those numbers lol Not #1 offense. Not win 14 games. Also: 1 minute ago, FireChans said: Also not sure about where the 12 RTD’s came from. Would that be one of the best rushing TD seasons in NFL history by a QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 He had 9 last season on 510 so he gets another @600 by default, if you're having hard time finding two more just put them on the passing side of the ledger as a Diggs bonus If you can see Allen hitting these overs it's a no brainer to put in a wager for MVP but then you don't strike me as a betting man so I won't bother trying to convince you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 38 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: He had 9 last season on 510 so he gets another @600 by default, if you're having hard time finding two more just put them on the passing side of the ledger as a Diggs bonus If you can see Allen hitting these overs it's a no brainer to put in a wager for MVP but then you don't strike me as a betting man so I won't bother trying to convince you I mean, you should lay money on Allen O 40.5 TD’s then if that line exists. I think I’d rather not making Vegas rich again this year. Josh had 600 yards rushing as a rookie and actually had less RTD’s so your explanation of 9 turning into 12 falls a little flat. Edited May 22, 2020 by FireChans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, FireChans said: I mean, you should lay money on Allen O 40.5 TD’s then if that line exists. I think I’d rather not making Vegas rich again this year. Josh had 600 yards rushing as a rookie and actually had less RTD’s so your explanation of 9 turning into 12 falls a little flat. lmao like I said...definitely not a gambler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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