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2020 Josh Allen Prop bets with ProFootballTalk

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I tend to agree with Chris Simms on his choices. Can't believe the passing number line is so low - so would be my choice for best bet. Curious what others believe is the safest?

 

 

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Somebody needs to do Chris Sims a favor and snip off his top button. 

 

 

He’s consistently high on Josh, and I hope he’s right! 

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I'm pretty sure you can get the 211.5 difference in drops alone from last year. Diggs has got to be worth a 300+ increase at minimum! 

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18 minutes ago, Augie said:

Somebody needs to do Chris Sims a favor and snip off his top button. 

 

That's his deal. He has a podcast called Unbuttoned.

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Here are the 2020 props if you need em courtesy of DraftKings-

 

O/U yards for the season- 3300.5 OVER

O/U TDs for the season- 21.5 OVER

O/U yards rushing for the season- 500 UNDER

 

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6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Here are the 2020 props if you need em courtesy of DraftKings-

 

O/U yards for the season- 3300.5 OVER

O/U TDs for the season- 21.5 OVER

O/U yards rushing for the season- 500 UNDER

 

 

He had 29 total touchdowns last year, his offense improved in every tangible way, and they're putting it at 21.5? Short of Injury that seems like cash in the bank. 

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3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

He had 29 total touchdowns last year, his offense improved in every tangible way, and they're putting it at 21.5? Short of Injury that seems like cash in the bank. 

I think it’s for passing TDs only, not total

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Just now, GoBills808 said:

I think it’s for passing TDs only, not total

 

Even then, that's a 2 TD increase in passing TD gets you the over, right? Still seems like safe money if he's healthy.

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16 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I'm pretty sure you can get the 211.5 difference in drops alone from last year. Diggs has got to be worth a 300+ increase at minimum! 

 

He was 31st in pass attempts per game last year. I can see him averaging 5 more attempts per game. If he also improves his completion percent to 62%, that puts him over 3,800. 

 

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13 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Even then, that's a 2 TD increase in passing TD gets you the over, right? Still seems like safe money if he's healthy.

Yeah that’s a really weak line. >21 is easy if he’s healthy.

Edited by FireChans

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13 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Even then, that's a 2 TD increase in passing TD gets you the over, right? Still seems like safe money if he's healthy.

Yes. I would parlay these three since they all inform each other tbh

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28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Here are the 2020 props if you need em courtesy of DraftKings-

 

O/U yards for the season- 3300.5 OVER

O/U TDs for the season- 21.5 OVER

O/U yards rushing for the season- 500 UNDER

 

Is that just passing TD's or total TD's?  The first two o/u's are pretty insulting to Josh Allen and the Bills offense.  If he can't throw at least in the high 3,000's for yards and in the high 20's for passing TD's we have a big problem, unless our running game is circa late 1970's Houston Oilers.  And that seems doubtful in today's NFL.  

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Just now, Paup 1995MVP said:

Is that just passing TD's or total TD's?  The first two o/u's are pretty insulting to Josh Allen and the Bills offense.  If he can't throw at least in the high 3,000's for yards and in the high 20's for passing TD's we have a big problem, unless our running game is circa late 1970's Houston Oilers.  And that seems doubtful in today's NFL.  

passing TDs I believe

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I like both overs.  What are the odds on both of those?   I think he may go over on rushing yards as well.  Would like to see it.  But he needs to be smart when he runs, and tuck the ball away!!   Simms is a big Josh Allen fan.  Didn't he get arrested driving high w his pregnant wife in the car years ago?  Oh to be young dumb and full of *****.  lol 

 

My son got pretty good odds on Josh Allen winning the NFL MVP I seem to recall.  I will have to find out from him what the line was for that.

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Passing yards? Over

Passing TDs? Over

Rushing yards? That is where I hesitate. Josh didn't have fewer rushing yards in 2019 because he ran less. Indeed he ran more. He had fewer rushing yards because teams defended him differently. A lot of his 2018 rush yards were running up the middle of the field. Well teams adjusted and took that away. Easier to do when you don't think the Bills weapons outside can beat you. Try doubling Stefon Diggs and still spying Allen in the middle? Well now the Bills are playing 9 on 8 in their favour everywhere else. Stefon Diggs's presence could get rid of some of those spys and open up the running lanes for Josh again to break off some of those big ones.

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Passing yards? Over

Passing TDs? Over

Rushing yards? That is where I hesitate. Josh didn't have fewer rushing yards in 2019 because he ran less. Indeed he ran more. He had fewer rushing yards because teams defended him differently. A lot of his 2018 rush yards were running up the middle of the field. Well teams adjusted and took that away. Easier to do when you don't think the Bills weapons outside can beat you. Try doubling Stefon Diggs and still spying Allen in the middle? Well now the Bills are playing 9 on 8 in their favour everywhere else. Stefon Diggs's presence could get rid of some of those spys and open up the running lanes for Josh again to break off some of those big ones.

I’d go over, over, under.  Josh had 7.4 rushes per game and 53 YPG in 2018.  That decreased to 6.8 and 32 last year.  I would expect the number of attempts to continue decreasing.  His YPC may increase somewhat as that happens, but I don’t think it will be enough to offset the reduced attempts.

 

He will have a top 10 set of targets to throw to.  There’s no reason he should need to run more than 5 times per game on average.  Fromm and Barkley aren’t going to win games if he goes down, so McDermott and Daboll will need to limit his exposure to hits.  I think they’ll work to find a balance between running just enough to be a perceived threat but not relying on it the way they have in the past.

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52 minutes ago, MJS said:

I'd take the over on all three.

 

See I think I would too. I think there will be more running lanes open to Josh on scrambles than last year because if Diggs has success early you will find that extra defender dropping out of the box a lot. 

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