Doc Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said: I got a prescription for it last Thursday. They're furloughing the CRNA's so I'll be working at the main hospital. I'm going to start taking it today. 5
3rdnlng Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 I wonder who this could be? (sorry Buffalo_Gal, I'm sure you look nothing like her) 5
B-Man Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Trump Derangement Syndrome is Bad for Your Health by Steven Hayward Original Article Senate Democrats shocked everyone Sunday afternoon when they blocked passage of a stimulus plan to try to hold the economy together. Stock market futures immediately plunged to the limit, signaling another dismal day on Wall Street at Monday’s open. Even the New York Times can’t conceal this churlishness. Note their headline: Senate Democrats block action on a trillion-dollar stimulus plan The party-line vote was a stunning setback after three days of fast-paced negotiations between senators and administration officials to reach a bipartisan compromise on legislation that is expected to be the largest economic stimulus package in American history . . . Are Democrats Refusing to Support $2 Trillion Stimulus Bill Unless It Includes a Bailout forPlanned Parenthood? by Rick Moran Original Article Democrats Block Senate Coronavirus Package by Sean Moran Original Article 3
billsfan1959 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, GG said: This question came up when analysts were discussing the statistics from Italy, and someone suggested that CV-related deaths there could have been overstated by as much as 80%, because of other contributing factors. One way to ascertain the CV impact is to compare it to a normalized baseline, which would be the death rate in prior years I don't know if they are being overstated. Italy normaly loses, on average, 1,600-1,800 people per day to all other causes (Between 7,000-8,000 per day in the US). It would be interesting to see comparison figures, by cause (i.e.; influenza, pneumonia, cancer, diabetes, heart disease). Edited March 23, 2020 by billsfan1959 1
B-Man Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Not enough hospital beds in New Hampshire? Blame needless regulations Union Leader [Manchester, NH], by Greg Moore Original Article ACROSS the country, state leaders have raised the alarm over the lack of enough beds should the COVID-19 pandemic create a surge in serious and critical cases. They are concerned that they simply won’t have enough hospital beds to care for ill patients and are taking drastic steps to “flatten the curve” – spreading out the timeline of the disease so that the health care system can manage the influx of new cases. This is just as true in New Hampshire as across the country. However, the prime reason we don’t have more hospital beds is not a lack of demand, but government regulation. Coronavirus: Why Two Weeks Matters by Melissa Mackenzie Original Article .
Kevbeau Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: I don't know if they are being overstated. Italy normaly loses, on average, 1,600-1,800 people per day to all other causes (Between 7,000-8,000 per day in the US). It would be interesting to see comparison figures, by cause (i.e.; influenza, pneumonia, cancer, diabetes, heart disease). I believe what GG is referring to is simply what is the variance from the norm. Not saying anything is overstated, but this type of view would provide at least a directional idea of incremental deaths due to Covid-19 versus an expectation. It would also reduce the bias that we’re seeing in the data caused by different recording/classification criteria by country/state. 1
B-Man Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 The doctor who helped defeat smallpox explains what’s coming. There are significant signs of hope amid the endless gloomery. No national quarantine as states move on their own. . 2
Deranged Rhino Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Just for perspective. ********************** **************** Posting for the video, not the tweet about Fauci which I don't agree with (for clarity) 3
fansince88 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Doc said: I got a prescription for it last Thursday. They're furloughing the CRNA's so I'll be working at the main hospital. I'm going to start taking it today. Is it claimed to keep you from getting it?
billsfan1959 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said: I wonder if the media will accuse Cuomo of peddling false hope? 3 1
Trump_is_Mentally_fit Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Quote A prison riot in Colombia's capital Bogota late on Saturday left 23 prisoners dead and 83 injured, the justice minister said on Sunday, as detainees protested sanitary conditions amid the global outbreak of coronavirus. https://www.france24.com/en/20200323-at-least-23-inmates-killed-in-prison-riot-over-coronavirus-in-colombia
Foxx Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 MA and MI just mandated stay at home orders for their states. 2
3rdnlng Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Is it claimed to keep you from getting it? Doc, on this very site is I believe an anesthesiologist in CT, posted today that his hospital was issuing Hydroxychloquine to staff as a preventive measure. 2
Deranged Rhino Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said: Doc, on this very site is I believe an anesthesiologist in CT, posted today that his hospital was issuing Hydroxychloquine to staff as a preventive measure. ************ The turtle rarely yells -- but he's close to screaming on the floor of the Senate right now talking about the bill. ****************** 2
TPS Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 13 hours ago, GG said: I just read his first piece, and it's hot garbage in retrospect, yet he crows that he got 40 millions hits. Only because he's perpetuating the falsehoods that is now gospel, but will likely look foolish when this is said and done. It's actually good to read his second piece after the first, because you realize that he doesn't address his wrong prognostications at all and continues with the alarmist tone. South Korea exponential growth? Mmm, never mind. According to him it's because they went through SARS, and knew what to do. Which is what ....? Seems to me he was pretty clear in what was done: Quote Containment is making sure all the cases are identified, controlled, and isolated. It’s what Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or Taiwan are doing so well: They very quickly limit people coming in, identify the sick, immediately isolate them, use heavy protective gear to protect their health workers, track all their contacts, quarantine them… This works extremely well when you’re prepared and you do it early on, and don’t need to grind your economy to a halt to make it happen. Washington State follow up? Nope, not a peep. In the first article he used examples to show how to estimate the number of true cases since testing was so limited. He used Washington, SF, and a few countries. Unfortunately, it still took Washington State a long time to get testing ramped up--it's only been the last week. Since he is focused on predicting situations for countries, I'm not sure what your issue is here? Diamond Princess? Clearly a statistical anomaly. But Italy isn't. He used DP also as an example for estimating the CFR, which he said would be between 1-6%. Again, not sure what the issue is here? My view is DP is a good example of how to keep it contained by extreme quarantining of people, as everyone was confined to their cabins, which limited the cases. He lumped the Swiss as one of the countries who were late in responding, without noting that the country has negligible deaths from CV. Based on the article, he was predicting what would happen to countries based on their responses. He predicted the growth in the # of cases for the swiss would accelerate because of their late response. As of the date of his prediction, 3/5, Swiss had 120 cases and 1 death; currently they have 8500 cases and 118 deaths. I don't know what your definition of negligible is...? Which brings me to the biggest problem of painting this virus with as broad brush as possible. As we're about to finish the third month in a pandemic, clear patterns are emerging despite what people like Puevo want you to believe, and that pattern is much closer to Leavitt's & Ginn's theories. Culture, demographics and climate all play a major role in the spread, and that's why you are seeing an explosion in Lombardy & NYC (Australia is not a problem btw). Other areas of the Italy are faring much better, and don't get me started on NYS north of Orange County compared to the NY metro area. Even the NY's first major outbreak in New Rochelle appears to be abating, similarly to what happened in Washington. But that's not NYC because people are on top of one another, and they're stupid. I witnessed what Cuomo was talking about first hand yesterday. All along the West Side, it was as if there's no danger lurking. He states that demographics and climate to play a roll. Quote Note that the age distribution in each country will also have an impact: Since mortality is much higher for older people, countries with an aging population like Japan will be harder hit on average than younger countries like Nigeria. There are also weather factors, especially humidity and temperature, but it’s still unclear how this will impact transmission and fatality rates. Very few people are getting airtime to propose commonsense solutions. Hype sells. We keep getting bombarded by stories of Chinese, South Korean and Singapore lockdowns, without getting much details of what happened. Reality is none of these countries truly locked down. And here's where experience with SARS and their culture came in to curb the spread. EVERYONE obeyed common social norms, they wore masks, they kept their distance and they washed their hands. Lo and behold, the spread slowed down and spread. Not so hard. Avoid direct contact and keep washing yourself. Regarding how SKorea did it, he linked to this video in the second article which explains it. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51897979/coronavirus-south-korea-seeing-a-stabilising-trend Regarding Singapore, he linked to this article: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa039/5804843 Neither SK or Singapore needed to use lockdowns, so I"m not sure where that statement comes from? Regarding China, did you not see videos of their lockdown? It seems you are putting your own spin on his basic analysis. Here's what he is saying in my view. 1. Countries that acted quickly to limit the spread (as described in the above two pieces) experienced low CFRs and for the most part number of cases. SKorea had the issue of on super-predator underlying a significant number of cases. That CFR is was between 0.5 - 1.0%. 2. Countries that reacted late will experience exponential growth and higher CFR, between 3-5%. This is due to the healthcare system being overwhelmed, not the actual death rate from the virus itself, as in #1. 3. Countries in the latter group, if they act fast and use extreme measures (what he calls the hammer) can reduce the death rate. It's all about getting R0 near or below 1. 4. In article 2, he puts together a hypothetical chart 15 which looks at different measures that reduce R0. The first two points listed are climate and pop density. He also tries to provide estimates of economic impact from the various strategies, and he says policy makers need to weigh the cost-benefits of implementing. Maybe we read different articles? 5. His conclusion, based on the Chinese evidence of extreme quarantine, is that it would take about 2 weeks of the extreme measures to get us close to 1. However, this strategy also means that many people will most likely get it in the next season, but he says that buys us time to prepare and we won't have to take extreme measures. I've seen criticisms that his estimate of 2 weeks is too short. So, from what I see, he admits that climate, pop density, and demographics all impact the spread and therefore the CFR, so he covers your criticisms. It seems to me, all the countries that delayed their responses are experiencing exponential growth as predicted, including Switzerland. My guess is that it will take 3-4 weeks for us to reduce the spread because so many people are #######s who don't heed the quarantine, your "culture" variable I guess... If the bill being discussed was set up to keep people employed by government support, then the economy could recover more quickly. Unfortunately, most of it seems to be a corporate boost controlled by the Munchkin, much like what Paulson's original bailout proposal was.
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