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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:



 


 

 

 

In breaking news, Trump officially endorses vampirism, a fascist form of Nazi cruelty. Also, plasma transfusions are no longer good for you. Trump, once again, wants to kill your grandmother.

 

Democrats plan to pass new Articles of Impeachment, because Trump owns $24.86 worth of stock in a company who specializes in providing minimal support services to the newly formed plasma-industrial complex. 186,000 former Obama administration ethics experts claim that Trump is corruptly attempting to enrich himself, and his family, at the expense of the sick and vulnerable.

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3 hours ago, shoshin said:

If we are following the April pattern and it looks like we are, this or next week would be the week we see deaths drop significantly. 

It won’t follow the ‘April’ pattern. It’ll follow the infection pattern, and yes deaths will drop because cases dropped a few weeks ago. People aren’t dying clear out of the blue. They die weeks after getting exposed, infected, treated, sustained and then expire. There’s good news all around. The three states with the biggest infection spike represent the three largest populations in the nation, and yet this recent surge has been way less lethal than the NE infestation last spring. 

Edited by SoCal Deek
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6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

It won’t follow the ‘April’ pattern. It’ll follow the infection pattern, and yes deaths will drop because cases dropped a few weeks ago. People aren’t dying clear out of the blue. They die weeks after getting exposed, infected, treated, sustained and then expire. There’s good news all around. The three states with the biggest infection spike represent the three largest populations in the nation, and yet this recent surge has been way less lethal than the NE infestation last spring. 

 

Agreed. The NE lethality had as much to do with our incomplete knowledge of treatments as it did with the likely higher spike in cases. 

 

I'll just be happy when it starts falling dramatically. Other regions will spike but I don't think any of the high population areas are left to do so (maybe NorCal?). 

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3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Agreed. The NE lethality had as much to do with our incomplete knowledge of treatments as it did with the likely higher spike in cases. 

 

I'll just be happy when it starts falling dramatically. Other regions will spike but I don't think any of the high population areas are left to do so (maybe NorCal?). 

Agreed all around. Northern California is an outlier for sure....but...the Bay Area has remained in a state of more severe lockdown throughout it all. My company has branch offices in Oakland and Sacramento and neither has reopened since March, whereas our Southern California office reopened on June 1st.

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Deaths are at 980 (7 day moving average) off of a high of 1070 from about 12 days ago.

 

Expect the true deaths to follow this trajectory with a 4-6 week lag.   Lots of the deaths that are counted on any given day typically are not from that day but anywhere from days to weeks earlier.  Sort of like backfilling.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Magox said:

Deaths are at 980 (7 day moving average) off of a high of 1070 from about 12 days ago.

 

Expect the true deaths to follow this trajectory with a 4-6 week lag.   Lots of the deaths that are counted on any given day typically are not from that day but anywhere from days to weeks earlier.  Sort of like backfilling.

 

 

 

 

The backfilling is understandable but frustrating. In PA, the "total" deaths lately has often been increasing day-to-day often by 20.

 

But the actuals have only been over 20 one (suspicious-looking from a data anomaly perspective) time in the last 7 weeks.

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5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The backfilling is understandable but frustrating. In PA, the "total" deaths lately has often been increasing day-to-day often by 20.

 

But the actuals have only been over 20 one time in the last 7 weeks. 

With something as widespread and long lasting as this don’t get hung up on day to day outliers. We now have WAY MORE data than we’ll ever need to see the trends. And speaking of widespread I was watching the European soccer final held in Lisbon yesterday. Yep, no fans, masks on the sidelines, etc. That match is equivalent to our Super Bowl! Maybe bigger. This is NOT a United States problem and certainly NOT a Donald Trump problem.

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5 hours ago, shoshin said:

If we are following the April pattern and it looks like we are, this or next week would be the week we see deaths drop significantly. 

 

The most frustrating part of following Covid data at a high level is that it seems we are ALWAYS one or two weeks away from seeing something significant, only to wake up one or two weeks later to find out that if the new current trend continues for another week or two, we'll see something ELSE that is significant.

 

 

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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

With something as widespread and long lasting as this don’t get hung up on day to day outliers. We now have WAY MORE data than we’ll ever need to see the trends. And speaking of widespread I was watching the European soccer final held in Lisbon yesterday. Yep, no fans, masks on the sidelines, etc. That match is equivalent to our Super Bowl! Maybe bigger. This is NOT a United States problem and certainly NOT a Donald Trump problem.

 

It's a US problem for me! 

 

There's been a leadership failure at many levels. I wouldn't spare too many in the executive mansions in DC or at the state level. 

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