Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) Once again with the net points thing This time I sorted the table by PF for your viewing pleasure. It's no surprise that scoring lotsa points is a pretty good predictor of being playoff bound But there are some anomolies. Tampa scores lotsa points. Going home. Same with Dallas and the Lambs Then there's Buffalo. Welook quite unremarkable as far as Net points are concerned, for a playoff team. Perhaps a tad under-performing on the wins, even. But Lordy - those PF. Please, Offense, oil up those cylinders and run on 'em. Houston stands out as the only playoff team with a negative Net Point differential. Edited January 2, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan Fix plot labels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Damn Jameis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, whatdrought said: Damn Jameis... I know, right? We can't even evaluate whether or not they have a defense without breaking down film, all those INTs put them in great big huge field position holes all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The Bills' roster has been molded to reflect their coach's priorities. I know there's been a lot of talk about scoring points, but on game-day that's all it is. There's an expectation defense will carry them, but as we saw at NE, that can only go so far when the offense is inept. Sure, some of this on Josh being able to make throws, but they haven't exactly surrounded him with top talent. Brown and Beasley are nice, but more like complementary pieces. No one on the offensive line is top notch, and Singletary is not yet a premier back. His turnovers in NE indicate that. Looking forward to Saturday, yet at the same time expecting to see a replication of the last 3 meaningful games they played in offensive output. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I hope we draft another RB at least as good or better than Singletary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 hours ago, whatdrought said: Damn Jameis... Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes. My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) 14 teams had a + point differential and 11 made the playoffs. 18 had a - point differential and only one made the playoffs. Buffalo was the only playoff team that was not in the Top 15 in points scored. Of the Top 15 teams in offensive points, 11 made the playoffs. Of the Top 15 teams in defensive points, 10 made the playoffs. There were 10 teams that finished in the Top 15 in both offensive points scored and defensive points allowed. The only one that didn't make the playoffs was Dallas. Overall point differential really is the one stat that is most closely correlated with playoff teams. Edited January 2, 2020 by billsfan1959 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I know, right? We can't even evaluate whether or not they have a defense without breaking down film, all those INTs put them in great big huge field position holes all the time Tampa actually had a good defense this year. Winston was beyond reckless with the ball and has been since he came in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Doc Brown said: Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes. My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs. I was just thinking about that yesterday... makes way too much sense, but don’t the colts own his rights? I imagine if it were to happen, it would have to be after the draft if they were to take a QB high. Any other situation and I doubt they’d be willing to trade him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Josh Allen is the only first round pick on the Bills' offense. That is just bizarre in the NFL today. They have 7 on defense. Just because the OL and WR are better than last year's incompetent bottom-of-the-league units doesn't mean they are even good this year - the Bills' OL and WR are both mediocre now. Allen remains the only elite athlete. Look at the list of other top teams - they typically have 3-4 1st rounders on their offense. Ravens and Titans both have 4 (plus 1st round backup QBs). Seahawks have four - all on their OL! Expecting the offense to be good without any elite talent to support a young Allen is absurd. 3 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes. My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs. Pretty sure the Colts still hold Luck's rights? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes. My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs. I think that ship has sailed. Captain Andrew Luck has hung up his sidearm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 hours ago, BillsVet said: The Bills' roster has been molded to reflect their coach's priorities. I know there's been a lot of talk about scoring points, but on game-day that's all it is. There's an expectation defense will carry them, but as we saw at NE, that can only go so far when the offense is inept. Sure, some of this on Josh being able to make throws, but they haven't exactly surrounded him with top talent. Brown and Beasley are nice, but more like complementary pieces. No one on the offensive line is top notch, and Singletary is not yet a premier back. His turnovers in NE indicate that. Looking forward to Saturday, yet at the same time expecting to see a replication of the last 3 meaningful games they played in offensive output. Those were each against top 5-7 defenses. You think our offense will perform similarly against a bottom 5 defense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, BobChalmers said: Josh Allen is the only first round pick on the Bills' offense. That is just bizarre in the NFL today. They have 7 on defense. Just because the OL and WR are better than last year's incompetent bottom-of-the-league units doesn't mean they are even good this year - the Bills' OL and WR are both mediocre now. Allen remains the only elite athlete. Look at the list of other top teams - they typically have 3-4 1st rounders on their offense. Ravens and Titans both have 4 (plus 1st round backup QBs). Seahawks have four - all on their OL! Expecting the offense to be good without any elite talent to support a young Allen is absurd. Pretty sure the Colts still hold Luck's rights? A players draft status does not necessarily mean they will be elite NFL talent. The texans' secondary is chalk full of first rounders, and they have one of the worst groups in the league. That said, more talent would be great. But don't diminish what we do have -- our O-line is top ten in most advanced metrics (I don't know how else you would measure an O-line group), John Brown is a 1000 yard receiver, and Beasley is as good a slot receiver as you will find in the league. Knox and Singletary are young, but have potential to be top ten at their respective positions (I might be pushing it a bit with Singletary). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Directly responsible for 42 points against (49 if you include extra points) with seven pick sixes. My 2020 NFL prediction is Bruce Arians talks Luck out of retirement to start for the Bucs. Not saying Winston is as good as luck of course but I don’t think the Bucs would be any better if he came out of retirement. If he did, the Colts are a way better situation. Bucs just cannot run the ball. It’s been years and a ton of different backs but they just can’t run. In the “no defense” division I like to call it everyone can run when they need to but the Bucs. They should keep Winston one more year and just build the heck out of their run game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloSol Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Once again with the net points thing This time I sorted the table by PF for your viewing pleasure. It's no surprise that scoring lotsa points is a pretty good predictor of being playoff bound But there are some anomolies. Tampa scores lotsa points. Going home. Same with Dallas and the Lambs Then there's Buffalo. Welook quite unremarkable as far as Net points are concerned, for a playoff team. Perhaps a tad under-performing on the wins, even. But Lordy - those PF. Please, Offense, oil up those cylinders and run on 'em. Houston stands out as the only playoff team with a negative Net Point differential. Says "Net points thing" then sorts by points for, mildly infuriating..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Junction Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 hours ago, BillsVet said: The Bills' roster has been molded to reflect their coach's priorities. I know there's been a lot of talk about scoring points, but on game-day that's all it is. There's an expectation defense will carry them, but as we saw at NE, that can only go so far when the offense is inept. Sure, some of this on Josh being able to make throws, but they haven't exactly surrounded him with top talent. Brown and Beasley are nice, but more like complementary pieces. No one on the offensive line is top notch, and Singletary is not yet a premier back. His turnovers in NE indicate that. Looking forward to Saturday, yet at the same time expecting to see a replication of the last 3 meaningful games they played in offensive output. We’re basically a team without any weak spots. Schemes, preparation, and discipline give this group an edge and will beat all the mistake prone or talent poor teams. Aside from Tre White were lacking on game breaking talent though. An additional 2-3 big playmakers and an improved Josh Allen and this team becomes a perennial super bowl threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 hours ago, BobChalmers said: Josh Allen is the only first round pick on the Bills' offense. That is just bizarre in the NFL today. They have 7 on defense. Just because the OL and WR are better than last year's incompetent bottom-of-the-league units doesn't mean they are even good this year - the Bills' OL and WR are both mediocre now. Allen remains the only elite athlete. Look at the list of other top teams - they typically have 3-4 1st rounders on their offense. Ravens and Titans both have 4 (plus 1st round backup QBs). Seahawks have four - all on their OL! Expecting the offense to be good without any elite talent to support a young Allen is absurd. Significant debate has ensued about Buffalo's (read McD's) preference for building the defense first. It's sort of like how a person chooses to spend their money. How one allocates limited resources will have an effect on something else. Spending money on repairing your broken vehicle may be necessary, but results in having less to spend on other expenses. And to take it a step further, positional value plays into this discussion on offense. A plodding OT drafted in the 2nd round that struggles in pass protection is likely not more valuable than a solid receiving option. It's why I continue to see McD as a very conventional team builder who tries to make people think he's forward thinker. I just see a lot of conservative thinking in offensive personnel and game-planning. 2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Those were each against top 5-7 defenses. You think our offense will perform similarly against a bottom 5 defense? Every team is going to play a mix of good, average to mediocre, and plain bad teams. Buffalo was 1-4 against playoff teams and averaged less than 20 points per. I cite that because now the league's bottom-feeders and almost all average teams are at home watching television. I judge the Bills' chances based on their output against better teams. Philadephia was motivated in October and took it to Buffalo's defense. And right now that's all it takes to be one and done as opposed to just losing a regular season game. I sense Buffalo's DL better be ready for a heavy dose of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. That said, Houston's defense is among the worst in the playoffs, but get back JJ Watt at an undetermined level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I know, right? We can't even evaluate whether or not they have a defense without breaking down film, all those INTs put them in great big huge field position holes all the time Actually, FO had TB's defense as the fifth best in the NFL this season: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019. They are a true outlier when it comes to trying to deduce quality based on points allowed. They had to contend with 41 turnovers and a ton of pick sixes! The TB defense scored 6 defensive TDs itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28403463/barnwell-guide-2019-nfl-playoffs-how-all-12-teams-win-super-bowl "How they're worse than you think: While the Bills' offense has generally avoided turnovers, it simply hasn't been good against playoff-caliber competition. In five starts against playoff teams this season, Allen completed just 51.6% of his passes and averaged 5.6 yards per attempt. His 72.7 passer rating against those defenses ranked 25th out of the 28 quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts or more against the playoff bracket, and the Bills' offense scored an average of 14 points per game while going 1-4 in those five contests. You could make the argument that the Bills have taken advantage of what FPI pegs as the league's third-easiest schedule." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 34 minutes ago, BillsVet said: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28403463/barnwell-guide-2019-nfl-playoffs-how-all-12-teams-win-super-bowl "How they're worse than you think: While the Bills' offense has generally avoided turnovers, it simply hasn't been good against playoff-caliber competition. In five starts against playoff teams this season, Allen completed just 51.6% of his passes and averaged 5.6 yards per attempt. His 72.7 passer rating against those defenses ranked 25th out of the 28 quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts or more against the playoff bracket, and the Bills' offense scored an average of 14 points per game while going 1-4 in those five contests. You could make the argument that the Bills have taken advantage of what FPI pegs as the league's third-easiest schedule." This comment sort of glazes over the meat of what happened in those games. They aren't saying the Bills, as a whole, did bad against playoff caliber teams. They are saying the Bills offense played poorly against playoff caliber teams. While that is true, it ignores that the Bills' defense (outside of the Phi game) played exceptional against playoff caliber teams. It also ignores that (again outside of Phi), the Bills were up against the best defenses in the league (Baltimore, NE, Tenn). This matters because are next game is against Houston, who, unlike the playoff caliber teams we have played, has one of the worst defenses in the league. A deeper analysis reveals the Bills have a great shot at this game. After that? We are in trouble. But its the divisional round, every team is really good at the divisional round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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