Logic Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 I'm just about ready to pull the trigger on plane tickets for the first weekend of the playoffs, but it's hard to talk myself into spending hundreds of dollars without knowing for sure the BIlls will be going to Houston to begin with. Anyone know what the scenarios/likelihood are of this being the matchup? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 I believe the Chiefs would have to lose out and Houston would have to win against Tennessee next week in order for us to be playing @KC instead of @HOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Texans’ seeding scenarios: No. 2 AFC seed: A first-round bye is still in play for the Texans but it's a pretty huge long shot. Houston has to win out to get to 11-5. The Chiefs have to go to 1-1 to get to 11-5. The Patriots have to go 0-2 to get to 11-5. And the Bills have to go 1-1 to get to 11-5 as well. That would create a three-way tie for the second spot (Buffalo would be the fifth seed) and the Texans would have a head-to-head advantage over the Chiefs and Pats to get the second seed. No. 3 AFC seed: If the Pats win out, the Chiefs go 1-1 and the Texans win out, Houston would get the No. 3 seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over Kansas City. No. 4 AFC seed: If the Pats and Chiefs win out, the Texans can't get any higher than the No. 4 seed. They haven't won the AFC South yet, but they can do so this weekend by 1) beating the Buccaneers on Saturday, 2) tying the Bucs and having the Saints/Titans tie or 3) having the Titans lose to the Saints on Sunday. Any three of those scenarios would clinch no less than the fourth seed for Houston. If the Texans lose and the Titans win, Week 17's game would be a divisional title game. No. 6 AFC seed: The Texans can actually sneak in as a wild card, if the Steelers lose one of their two remaining games. In this scenario, the Texans could beat the Buccaneers Saturday and lose to the Titans in Week 17. They would be 10-6 and the Steelers would finish 9-7 at best, which would put the Texans in as a wild card, while the Titans jumped up to the No. 4 seed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do The Reich Thing Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said: Texans’ seeding scenarios: No. 2 AFC seed: A first-round bye is still in play for the Texans but it's a pretty huge long shot. Houston has to win out to get to 11-5. The Chiefs have to go to 1-1 to get to 11-5. The Patriots have to go 0-2 to get to 11-5. And the Bills have to go 1-1 to get to 11-5 as well. That would create a three-way tie for the second spot (Buffalo would be the fifth seed) and the Texans would have a head-to-head advantage over the Chiefs and Pats to get the second seed. No. 3 AFC seed: If the Pats win out, the Chiefs go 1-1 and the Texans win out, Houston would get the No. 3 seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over Kansas City. No. 4 AFC seed: If the Pats and Chiefs win out, the Texans can't get any higher than the No. 4 seed. They haven't won the AFC South yet, but they can do so this weekend by 1) beating the Buccaneers on Saturday, 2) tying the Bucs and having the Saints/Titans tie or 3) having the Titans lose to the Saints on Sunday. Any three of those scenarios would clinch no less than the fourth seed for Houston. If the Texans lose and the Titans win, Week 17's game would be a divisional title game. No. 6 AFC seed: The Texans can actually sneak in as a wild card, if the Steelers lose one of their two remaining games. In this scenario, the Texans could beat the Buccaneers Saturday and lose to the Titans in Week 17. They would be 10-6 and the Steelers would finish 9-7 at best, which would put the Texans in as a wild card, while the Titans jumped up to the No. 4 seed. The last part is wrong. They literally clinch the division with one win in the last two and they got a win today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said: The last part is wrong. They literally clinch the division with one win in the last two and they got a win today. yes you are correct - this was put out this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do The Reich Thing Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, JoPoy88 said: yes you are correct - this was put out this morning I get it but it was originally wrong because that scenario involved beating Tampa which would therefore clinch the division. They can’t be a division winner and 6th seed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said: I get it but it was originally wrong because that scenario involved beating Tampa which would therefore clinch the division. They can’t be a division winner and 6th seed yeah that’s CBS for you I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 37 minutes ago, Logic said: I'm just about ready to pull the trigger on plane tickets for the first weekend of the playoffs, but it's hard to talk myself into spending hundreds of dollars without knowing for sure the BIlls will be going to Houston to begin with. Anyone know what the scenarios/likelihood are of this being the matchup? You received more detailed answers above, but the bottom line is if KC beats the Bears tomorrow, it’s almost a lock we’re playing the Texans. Besides if Southwest flies to both, there is no penalty for flipping flights. Even if another is direct, and SW may have a stop, that would be the safest bet, plus you get check two bags for free with SW. I just checked for a fellow TBD guy, and to both cities, each as 1 stop to either city, but just to warn you the flights are not cheap. Higher than I normally see for SW. I hope that helps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 I'd bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil The Thrill Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, RyanC883 said: I'd bet on it. How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said: How much? 5k ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Fischer Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 To secure #3, Chiefs need to: Defeat the Bears in Chicago (not a gimme) and beat the Chargers at home; OR, Win either game and Houston loses at home to Tennessee Bonus: If Chiefs win both and Pats lose to Miami, Chiefs are #2 and Pats are #3. Texans get #3 if: They defeat Tennessee at home and Chiefs lose one of two games. Texans get #4: If they lose to the Tennessee; OR Chiefs win next two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBillsBacker Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) Wait until after the Chiefs game against the Bears tonight. If they win that one, you can lock it in. They aren’t losing at home vs the Chargers. Edited December 22, 2019 by CajunBillsBacker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Pry about a 70% chance or so I'm guessing based off those scenarios. Chiefs are heating up and I don't see them resting their starters if the #2 seed is technically still in play for them. Bears will be tough in Chicago and the Chargers are better than their record so neither games are gimmes. I know we'd rather play the Titans, but if the Chiefs slip to the #4 seed a win would give us a rematch against New England. A win at Arrowhead and Foxboro would be something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Matter_What Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, CajunBillsBacker said: Wait until after the Chiefs game against the Bears tonight. If they win that one, you can lock it in. They aren’t losing at home vs the Chargers. Right now it is about 66%. If Chiefs win tonight, it goes up to roughly 85%. That is very far from lock in my book, though obviously very likely. Even if Chiefs win tonight, if in W17 Titans beat Texans and Chargers beat Chiefs (which is not impossible) then we play Chiefs. And if Chiefs somehow lose tonight, it shifts to 66% that we actually play Chiefs. Like Cajun sadi above, at least wait for Chiefs game before you make arrangements. Edited December 22, 2019 by No_Matter_What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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