DrDawkinstein Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 On 12/19/2019 at 10:12 AM, DrDawkinstein said: If he's a true outside DE then yes. He'd be a good upgrade to Shaq who will most likely walk in FA. If I had to overpay for one of them I'd probably go with Ngakoue. If it were up to me, MY defensive line would be: DE: Hughes - Draft Pick 1Tech: Harry - Vince Taylor 3Tech: JPhillips - Oliver DE: Ngakoue Still need a couple more players to pad the depth, but that would be my plan for starters, assuming we can't bring Shaq back on a reasonable deal. Edit: Cutting Star saves us $2M Cutting Murphy saves us $7M I'm ok with cutting both and throwing that money at Lawson to keep him in the rotation... DE: Hughes - Draft Pick 1Tech: Harry - Vince Taylor 3Tech: JPhillips - Oliver DE: Ngakoue - Lawson Thinking about my edit option, where we sign everyone. Let's see what those numbers look like... Hughes $9.5M Harry $0.9M VTaylor $0.75M JPhillips ~$13M Oliver $4.5M Ngakoue ~$15M Shaq ~$10M Rookie (2nd Rd) ~$1M That would be about $55M invested in our DLine next season. Plus, $7.8M in dead cap for cutting Star, and another $1.75M in dead cap for cutting Murphy. That's almost $65M in the DLine for 2020. Which seems like a lot, however, we're talking about the trenches here. Where you should be building your team from. Same with all the money invested in OLine. I have no issues with Beane tying up over half our cap space on the Lines (O and D combined). Especially while our young Franchise QB is still on his rookie contract, and even with the other extensions that need to come (Milano, White, Dawkins, etc). Hughes falls off the books after next year, or at least his dead cap number will be low enough that next year is most likely his last season with us. Then we already have Ngakoue and Shaq and a Rookie to keep the momentum without having to sign anyone new. So that number goes down to about $45M invested in the DLine for 2021 (which will be when all the new contracts and extensions referenced above really kick in. Git'r'dun, Mr. BEane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 (edited) On 12/19/2019 at 10:12 AM, DrDawkinstein said: If he's a true outside DE then yes. He'd be a good upgrade to Shaq who will most likely walk in FA. If I had to overpay for one of them I'd probably go with Ngakoue. If it were up to me, MY defensive line would be: DE: Hughes - Draft Pick 1Tech: Harry - Vince Taylor 3Tech: JPhillips - Oliver DE: Ngakoue Still need a couple more players to pad the depth, but that would be my plan for starters, assuming we can't bring Shaq back on a reasonable deal. Edit: Cutting Star saves us $2M Cutting Murphy saves us $7M I'm ok with cutting both and throwing that money at Lawson to keep him in the rotation... DE: Hughes - Draft Pick 1Tech: Harry - Vince Taylor 3Tech: JPhillips - Oliver DE: Ngakoue - Lawson We don't need to save money, we have freaking $90+ million in cap space next year. They are not cutting Star to save $2 million. It gets so old to hear people talk about how he sucks because he doesn't put up stats(although now he has an INT and a few sacks) when everyone who studies the All-22 raves about him. Murphy, for a $7 million savings I could get on board with IF they are getting someone to replace him who is good. The danger with trying to start "upgrading" all these pieces is you have no idea how integral any of these players are to the entire defense as a WHOLE and how removing one piece can causes a cascade of issues. First and foremost any added player needs to buy into the team defense concept and do their 1/11th, whether they like what they are being asked to do on a particular play or not. There is no place in this defense for freelancers which is what a lot of players on other teams do to some degree or another. You do that here and you get a seat on the bench or get cut. So before bringing anyone in they are looking at that and THEN talent. I mean seriously, we are looking at the 2nd or 3rd best D in the NFL and we are worried about getting rid of players and upgrading it? Worry about the offense, this defense will be just fine. Edited December 20, 2019 by matter2003 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, matter2003 said: We don't need to save money, we have freaking $90+ million in cap space next year. They are not cutting Star to save $2 million. It gets so old to hear people talk about how he sucks because he doesn't put up stats(although now he has an INT and a few sacks) when everyone who studies the All-22 raves about him. I mean seriously, we are looking at the 2nd or 3rd best D in the NFL and we are worried about getting rid of players and upgrading it? Worry about the offense, this defense will be just fine. Not "worried" about anything, nor am I hating on Star. I never said he sucks or even made a single comment about his play. This is all business. How do we maximize the value. But see my most recent post directly above yours. $65M is a lot to invest into one unit. Worth it for the trenches, but still a lot. Even more ($70M+) if we kept Star. So yeah, I'm looking for ways to improve and save some cash. Nothing against Star, but he is replaceable. And yeah, we should always be looking to improve and upgrade. Especially when 2 key components of this successful line are set to leave after this season. This is a discussion on how to maintain AND improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Not "worried" about anything, nor am I hating on Star. I never said he sucks or even made a single comment about his play. This is all business. How do we maximize the value. But see my most recent post directly above yours. $65M is a lot to invest into one unit. Worth it for the trenches, but still a lot. Even more ($70M+) if we kept Star. So yeah, I'm looking for ways to improve and save some cash. Nothing against Star, but he is replaceable. And yeah, we should always be looking to improve and upgrade. Especially when 2 key components of this successful line are set to leave after this season. This is a discussion on how to maintain AND improve. Not necessarily with the salary cap constantly going up. That percentage keeps getting smaller and smaller every year. Wait til 2021 with the new TV contracts and see how much the cap will be jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Thinking about my edit option, where we sign everyone. Let's see what those numbers look like... Hughes $9.5M Harry $0.9M VTaylor $0.75M JPhillips ~$13M Oliver $4.5M Ngakoue ~$15M Shaq ~$10M Rookie (2nd Rd) ~$1M That would be about $55M invested in our DLine next season. Plus, $7.8M in dead cap for cutting Star, and another $1.75M in dead cap for cutting Murphy. That's almost $65M in the DLine for 2020. Which seems like a lot, however, we're talking about the trenches here. Where you should be building your team from. Same with all the money invested in OLine. I have no issues with Beane tying up over half our cap space on the Lines (O and D combined). Especially while our young Franchise QB is still on his rookie contract, and even with the other extensions that need to come (Milano, White, Dawkins, etc). Hughes falls off the books after next year, or at least his dead cap number will be low enough that next year is most likely his last season with us. Then we already have Ngakoue and Shaq and a Rookie to keep the momentum without having to sign anyone new. So that number goes down to about $45M invested in the DLine for 2021 (which will be when all the new contracts and extensions referenced above really kick in. Git'r'dun, Mr. BEane I'd honestly be shocked if Shaq only gets $10M per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gambit said: I'd honestly be shocked if Shaq only gets $10M per year. Could be more but I dont think much. I see him in FA being close to how Trent Murphy was viewed a couple years ago and we gave him 3/$22M. Factor in inflation, and I think he'll be very close to the $10M average. Maybe a 4/$40M deal, depending on guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Thinking about my edit option, where we sign everyone. Let's see what those numbers look like... Hughes $9.5M Harry $0.9M VTaylor $0.75M JPhillips ~$13M Oliver $4.5M Ngakoue ~$15M Shaq ~$10M Rookie (2nd Rd) ~$1M Star $10.1 (No need to Draft a DLman at all this year. Use the 2nd for Offense). That would be about $55M invested in our DLine next season. Plus, $7.8M in dead cap for cutting Star, and another $1.75M in dead cap for cutting Murphy. That's almost $65M in the DLine for 2020. That's almost $66M in the DLine for 2020. Star gets cut and Hughes gets traded in 2021. That's when you draft a DL high. Why not this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 He could be the perfect addition. He’s 24, can take the reigns from Jerry when he runs out of gas. He gets pressure consistently. 6’2 246 DE is almost a Hughes clone are we ok paying he and Jordan Phillips 35+ mill between them? Do we then let Shaq and Murphy go? Maybe star too? Big decisions on the horizon for BB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Seems like we have an abundance of players at DT. I don't know if we're going to pay top line money for Phillips. As for Shaq, he looks like he transformed his body this year and good for him. Since we haven't signed him yet (or any of our other fa's) I wonder what Beane is thinking. I would rather dump money into the O and let next year play out on the DL. Could this dude play the Lorax role too? Maybe that would provide enough value and flexibility for us to commit to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 On 12/19/2019 at 8:42 AM, whatdrought said: I get it and I don't disagree. We just lack a true edge rusher who can consistently get after the QB and make plays when we need it most. Our front 7 is doing a ton to generate pressure, but that's primarily with blitzes and with tricks. Right now that works cause our pass defense is so damn good. I'd still like a 10+ sack edge rusher whose going to be the focus of the other teams OL. If that's FA, so be it. If it's the draft, that's fine as well. I agree completely, we tend to not generate pressure off the edge consistently. Phillips is the best pass rusher and he does it from the interior.. Hughes is a nice pass rusher if he has someone who can command a lot of attention opposite the other edge. Shaq is a good rotational player who adds value being stout against the run. Trent Murphy is either a JAG or just above replacement level as a rotational player. Johnson is a developmental player who is at this stage only should get limited snaps. This team does need a prime time edge rusher who can get 9-12 sacks a year and command a lot of double teams. The Bills in my opinion should make finding a big time edge rusher their only major 10+ million aav add to the roster in the off-season. Ngakoue would be the perfect add, resign Spain, Shaq, and Phillips while adding an edge rusher while extending Milano, Tre, and Dawkins would very possible given their cap situation and that they can add a WR in round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said: Why not this? I think that's one step behind instead of one step ahead. Star is a DT, we'd still need another DE for next season. And while I'm not worried about spending, it adds money to the overall cap hit for the unit. JMO. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveFreeman22 Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 On 12/19/2019 at 10:12 AM, DrDawkinstein said: If he's a true outside DE then yes. He'd be a good upgrade to Shaq who will most likely walk in FA. If I had to overpay for one of them I'd probably go with Ngakoue. If it were up to me, MY defensive line would be: DE: Hughes - Draft Pick 1Tech: Harry - Vince Taylor 3Tech: JPhillips - Oliver DE: Ngakoue Still need a couple more players to pad the depth, but that would be my plan for starters, assuming we can't bring Shaq back on a reasonable deal. Edit: Cutting Star saves us $2M Cutting Murphy saves us $7M I'm ok with cutting both and throwing that money at Lawson to keep him in the rotation... DE: Hughes - Draft Pick 1Tech: Harry - Vince Taylor 3Tech: JPhillips - Oliver DE: Ngakoue - Lawson Oliver ain't backing up nobody next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, SteveFreeman22 said: Oliver ain't backing up nobody next year. Currently, he and Phillips have 52% of defensive snaps. Jerry is tops at 68% and Trent follows with 64%. Kyle had 68 and 64 % under McD, so if they did this with Ed, then you raise a good point wrt to a significant investment in Phillips? If Ed gets over 60% of the Snaps next year, I could see him posting double digit sacks. A similar issue with Ngakoue, he is not a LDE, so he’d share time with Hughes. I don’t see this happening, but that’s why I’ve said the DL will be the most interesting decisions for Beane. If they think Johnson is ready to take a bigger role, then they could go with him and Trent at LDE next year and let Shaq walk. Man, I’m talking myself out of my original position...anything is possible, and I’m glad we have Beane and McD making the decisions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 22 hours ago, SteveFreeman22 said: Oliver ain't backing up nobody next year. I hope not But they dont back anyone up either way. It's a rotation on the DL. The term "starter" is pretty meaningless. Just means who plays the first snap. I simply listed in order of contract expense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 On 12/19/2019 at 11:17 AM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: If we do that we won't have money for the guys we need to extend next year and the year after. They need to be smart now, so they don't get into trouble later. Yes we will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 24 minutes ago, Chemical said: Yes we will Math is hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Math is hard Not for me. I would spell it out for you, but I don't see you showing your work either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Chemical said: Not for me. I would spell it out for you, but I don't see you showing your work either. Pretty much every person who understands how the cap works has said hard choices will eventually have to get made. Not now but I’m two years, even in the event we don’t sign the high prices free agent. So what do you know that they don’t? Edited December 22, 2019 by JoshAllenHasBigHands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Pretty much every person who understands how the cap has worked has said hard choices will eventually have to get made, Not now but I’m two years, even in the event we don’t sign the high prices free agent. So what do you know that they don’t? That's a pretty vague description of what will happen. They currently have a TON of cap space for next year. Also, Hughes, Star, and Murphy will all probably be off the books by 2021 creating even more space and need for Lawson, Phillips, Ngakoue(or another Free agent DE). We should be talking about how they are gonna be able to spend all that money while Josh is on a rookie deal, not acting scared that we might have to pass on another Murphy 3 years from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Chemical said: That's a pretty vague description of what will happen. They currently have a TON of cap space for next year. Also, Hughes, Star, and Murphy will all probably be off the books by 2021 creating even more space and need for Lawson, Phillips, Ngakoue(or another Free agent DE). We should be talking about how they are gonna be able to spend all that money while Josh is on a rookie deal, not acting scared that we might have to pass on another Murphy 3 years from now. Murphy should be gone next year... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts