20 Years of QBs and 300 yard Games

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

It is progress. I don't think anyone worth their salt would not tell you Josh Allen is a better Quarterback in 2019 than 2018. The question is whether it is sufficient progress. My benchmark before the season was Trubisky's 2nd year. At the moment he is behind that pace in every major category.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is progress. I don't think anyone worth their salt would not tell you Josh Allen is a better Quarterback in 2019 than 2018. The question is whether it is sufficient progress. My benchmark before the season was Trubisky's 2nd year. At the moment he is behind that pace in every major category.  

 

Your benchmark, huh?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Your benchmark, huh?

 

 

 

That was where I felt Josh roughly needed to be to be "on track", yes. I felt really good about Josh through 3 weeks. Less good since then. I fear since New England they have tried to reign him in too much. I don't want to watch reigned in Josh Allen. I wanna see the guy throw it and evaluate what we have. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

That was where I felt Josh roughly needed to be to be "on track", yes. I felt really good about Josh through 3 weeks. Less good since then. I fear since New England they have tried to reign him in too much. I don't want to watch reigned in Josh Allen. I wanna see the guy throw it and evaluate what we have. 

Well at least we can agree the offensive game plans of late leave a LOT to be desired.

 

I'm not so warm an fuzzy on Daboll, but I think it's night and day when it comes to comparing Josh last year to Josh this year.

 

[DuckyBoys]

20 hours ago, StHustle said:

Anyone else find it strange that both Tyrod and Josh went from pretty good deep ball passers their first year starting to terrible at it in year 2?

coaching staff harping about no turnovers leads to overthinking an hesitation   Tyrod started throwing deep balls out bounds fearing he would leave one inside the get picked off Allen seems to be trying to hit guys perfectly in stride 60 yards downfield.  He needs to give his guy an opportunity to make a play.  This style of play were running on both sides of the ball does not leave much room for error.  Bills are going to need to invest in some more explosive players on offense and get more creative in getting them into open space. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

 I think overall you are right. But most of that comes into play whether a QB puts up a single 300 yard game in the first 15 games. IE coaching, matchupe etc. all fall into place by week one or 15. Allen is at 19 now. It is pretty rarefied air, the company is not great there. Does it mean he can't be the next great QB? No. But he would definitely be the very first to do so. 

So I’m curious (and I mean this sincerely, not sarcastically) does your concern go away if he throws for 300 yards on Sunday, or is there another benchmark you will track after that?  300 yard game frequency maybe?

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

So I’m curious (and I mean this sincerely, not sarcastically) does your concern go away if he throws for 300 yards on Sunday, or is there another benchmark you will track after that?  300 yard game frequency maybe?

Yep 1 takes the monkey off their back (Bills Coaching Staff & McD), from there I then want to see multiple games where we can rely on Allen to be the catalyst for the team and scoring in the high 20's-30;'s......,  

[TwistofFate]

Add another 300+ yard win with jimmy gs 300+ yard performance to the record. 

[billsfan1959]

7 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Add another 300+ yard win with jimmy gs 300+ yard performance to the record. 

So, with Jimmy G's performance, 300+ yard passers this week were 5-4...

 

What record are you talking about? 

 

Add another senseless post to your record...

[US Egg]

So you have no need to work and that’s why you can research this ?

 

(powers been out for hours here)

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

So, with Jimmy G's performance, 300+ yard passers this week were 5-4...

 

What record are you talking about? 

 

Add another senseless post to your record...

Remarkable, isn't it?

 

You know what would be funny?  If Josh throws for 400 yards Sunday.  I swear some would still come on here and say he still hasn't thrown specifically for 300

[billsfan1959]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Remarkable, isn't it?

 

You know what would be funny?  If Josh throws for 400 yards Sunday.  I swear some would still come on here and say he still hasn't thrown specifically for 300

It is as if some posters have no understanding, whatsoever, of football.

 

They can package it in any way they wish; however, each and every one of their posts says the same thing: "I have no idea why, but, I WANT what I WANT, and I WANT it NOW!!!! And if I don't get it, I am going to post the same thing over and over and over and over in every thread."

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

It is as if some posters have no understanding, whatsoever, of football.

 

They can package it in any way they wish; however, each and every one of their posts says the same thing: "I have no idea why, but, I WANT what I WANT, and I WANT it NOW!!!! And if I don't get it, I am going to post the same thing over and over and over and over in every thread."

I actually commend the OP for his work.  It's interesting data.  It's just that it's hard to imply it means what some think it means, because of the complexity of all the variables that can affect whether QB X throws for a lot of yards. 

 

The NFL for years has been a copy cat league.  The fad now is to have QBs that can throw it all over the filed, and somewhat justifiable given that DBs aren't allowed to play defense anymore, and that QBs are treated more carefully than endangered species.  If I were a forward thinking NFL OC, I would go the opposite route.  I would harken back to the old Bills of the AFL days, get two big backs like Cookie and Wray Carleton, and pound the ball at defenses who now are more designed for pass protection. 

[billsfan1959]

12 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep 1 takes the monkey off their back (Bills Coaching Staff & McD), from there I then want to see multiple games where we can rely on Allen to be the catalyst for the team and scoring in the high 20's-30;'s......,  

He was kind of the catalyst for the team in his five 4th quarter comebacks or seven game winning drives, wouldn't you say?

 

Catalyst: a person or thing that precipitates an event; an agent that provokes or speeds significant change or action

 

Call me crazy; however, when a team needs a score to win and the QB leads that team down the field for a score, that sort of qualifies, no?

Edited November 1, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Billsfan1972]

So here is the 2019 to date records based on 300 yard passing games

 

37 W 33 L & 2 T (Week one Stafford & Murray).

 

Now the interesting stat 14 of the losses were in games where the winning QB too threw for over 300 yards.

 

Here is where some of you need a refresher course.....  When both QB's throw for 300 yards, it means that they needed to score points and passing yards were important & thus loss was not really due to the team throwing for 300, but the other team throwing for over 300......

 

For example Week 1 bother Keenum & Wentz threw for over 300 in a 32-27 game.  Yes Keenum lost, but throwing for 300 resulted in a close game.....  The only tie had both Murray & Stafford over 300, without 300 one would have I bet lost the game.  

 

Of the 14 losses where both threw for 300, 9 were decided by less then a TD.

Of the 23 300 yard passing game where only the winning QB threw for that amount, 10 won by less then a TD, which tells me 300 was very important to help win the game.

Of the 19 losses where only the losing QB threw for 300. 13 lost by less then a TD.....  Which says that throwing for over 300 kept them in the game and a game that was decided by less then one possession.

 

So to say 300 (and yes I use this as an arbitrary # that has been used throughout the year as a measure) isn't important is just wrong!!!!!    

Edited November 1, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So to say 300 (and yes I use this as an arbitrary # that has been used throughout the year as a measure) isn't important is just wrong!!!!!    

No. It's not.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So here is the 2019 to date records based on 300 yard passing games

 

37 W 33 L & 2 T (Week one Stafford & Murray).

 

Now the interesting stat 14 of the losses were in games where the winning QB too threw for over 300 yards.

 

Here is where some of you need a refresher course.....  When both QB's throw for 300 yards, it means that they needed to score points and passing yards were important & thus loss was not really due to the team throwing for 300, but the other team throwing for over 300......

 

For example Week 1 bother Keenum & Wentz threw for over 300 in a 32-27 game.  Yes Keenum lost, but throwing for 300 resulted in a close game.....  The only tie had both Murray & Stafford over 300, without 300 one would have I bet lost the game.  

 

Of the 14 losses where both threw for 300, 9 were decided by less then a TD.

Of the 23 300 yard passing game where only the winning QB threw for that amount, 10 won by less then a TD, which tells me 300 was very important to help win the game.

Of the 19 losses where only the losing QB threw for 300. 13 lost by less then a TD.....

 

So to say 300 (and yes I use this as an arbitrary # that has been used throughout the year as a measure) isn't important is just wrong!!!!!    

Well, not really.  I can take this data and just as easily say it means that defense is the most important thing to winning, and that teams with poor pass defense are at higher risk for losing.  Or I could say that teams with ineffective running games can't control the ball, and keep the other team's offense off the field, so the other team has more opportunities to pass.  It could mean you had good matchups against a team's defense.   And so on.

 

I would be delighted if Josh threw for 301 yards Sunday afternoon.  But only if that was done in the context of a win.  It still boggles the mind that some here are more interested in passing yards than victories. 

 

 

[soflabillsfan1]

Since the 1990 season, only 1 Super bowl winning QB has not thrown for 300 yards in the regular season or playoffs.  That was Trent Dilfer in 2000.  Stop saying 300 yard games don't mean anything.  The numbers say otherwise.  At some point in the season, you're going to need to be able to push the ball downfield through the air.  The guys like Trent and EJ couldn't do that.  That's why they're not in the league anymore.

[Brand J]

Anyone who says that having the ability to throw the ball up and down the field doesn’t equate to much (in the passing game era) is simply a lost cause for this discussion.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

Since the 1990 season, only 1 Super bowl winning QB has not thrown for 300 yards in the regular season or playoffs.  That was Trent Dilfer in 2000.  Stop saying 300 yard games don't mean anything.  The numbers say otherwise.  At some point in the season, you're going to need to be able to push the ball downfield through the air.  The guys like Trent and EJ couldn't do that.  That's why they're not in the league anymore.

Let's say you have a QB that throws one 300 yard game.  That in statistical terms is a N (sample size) of one.  From a statistical perspective you cannot base any conclusion on an N of one.

 

As I said above, I would be delighted if Josh throws for 300 yards Sunday.  But if they lose, then it means nothing other than a loss.

2 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Anyone who says that having the ability to throw the ball up and down the field doesn’t equate to much (in the passing game era) is simply a lost cause for this discussion.

It is whether it means anything in term's of a QB's relative ability or lack thereof.  And passing yardage involves a whole host of variables other than the QB himself.