Bills Draft Capital Analysis

[Augie]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Refusing to post anything of substance will 100% of the time get you crushed in my threads. Ask anybody. You can start: now. 

 

Or GTFO of my thread. 

 

If you can provide evidence that you are also SDS, I’m happy to oblige. You may have started a thread, but you can’t control how people respond. It doesn’t mean you will get rave reviews. 

[OCinBuffalo]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

See my edited post above. It’s not worth getting riled up over. It’s OK, if we can all just stay calm and balanced. No need for anyone to lash out. 

This has nothing to do with you, but everything to do with: 0 tolerance for substance free posts in my threads. You want to F about: take it elsewhere,  I mean it's not like there's a shortage of places for you to post here.  

[ndirish1978]

So starting a thread means the thread is "yours" now? This is the smallest amount of power I've ever seen go to someone's head.

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

You seem upset.

Nope, I've just been here for 10 years and I don't put up with pissants posting nothing of value in my threads. Again, ask anybody. Same thing as above: it's not like there's a shortage of places for you to post, substance-free, here. Do it elsewhere.

1 minute ago, ndirish1978 said:

So starting a thread means the thread is "yours" now? This is the smallest amount of power I've ever seen go to someone's head.

Nothing to do with power, everything to do with: this is how I run my threads, you're free to run yours your way. 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

This has nothing to do with you, but everything to do with: 0 tolerance for substance free posts in my threads. You want to F about: take it elsewhere,  I mean it's not like there's a shortage of places for you to post here.  

 

But what if @Gugny wants to tell you how he makes sausage? What are the consequences? I just might enjoy that! 

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

No. Each flip, 50% of heads, 50% of tails. Why is this so hard? 

 

Look, if I flip a coin one time and get heads, the universe doesn't tilt on it's axis, bend the coin....time...space...and create a 25% chance that I will get heads again.  The second time there are only 2 outcomes, same as the first. Past outcomes of coin flips don't predict future outcomes. 7 coin flips = 50% chance of heads or tails for each, with no predictive...anything. 7 heads in a row has a chance of 50% 2 heads, 1 tails, 3 tails, 1 heads? 50% chance...exactly.

 

Get it...yet?

The probability of getting 7 heads from 7 coin flips is 0.5 to the seventh power.  Way less than 50%. 0.78% to be precise.

Edited April 10, 2019 by oldmanfan

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Nope, I've just been here for 10 years and I don't put up with pissants posting nothing of value in my threads. Again, ask anybody. Same thing as above: it's not like there's a shortage of places for you to post, substance-free, here. Do it elsewhere.

Nothing to do with power, everything to do with: this is how I run my threads, you're free to run yours your way. 

 

This doesn’t seem to be going very well. 

[OCinBuffalo]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You don't run an NFL team either.  I consider Bill Polian to be one of the best GMs in history.  And he would laugh when the concept of the draft chart came up.  I'll go with Bill

Yet he used it for every single trade he made as the Colts GM. I did the work on ALL NFL trades, including and especially his, back when the RG3 debacle came up. Curious: what work have you done on Polian's trades? Do you have any specific trade you can point to that deviates from the value chart?

 

Let's hear it. I'd be very interested to hear about that...because I haven't found a single one, ever.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

The probability of getting 7 heads from 7 coin flips is 0.5 to the seventh power.  Way less than 50%.

This is substance free common sense that does not befit the mathematical intelligence of an eighth grader, allegedly.

[OCinBuffalo]

8 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Yes everyone gets that each flip has a 50% chance of being heads or tails but the odds of you getting heads 7 times in a row is about .78%.

Jesus....and how did you arrive at that? Show your work.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Yet he used it for every single trade he made as the Colts GM. I did the work on ALL NFL trades, including and especially his, back when the RG3 debacle came up. Curious: what work have you done on Polian's trades? Do you have any specific trade you can point to that deviates from the value chart?

 

Let's hear it. I'd be very interested to hear about that...because I haven't found a single one, ever.

Your first statement is unsubstantiated.

[OCinBuffalo]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The probability of getting 7 heads from 7 coin flips is 0.5 to the seventh power.  Way less than 50%. 0.78% to be precise.

The sheer nonsense of this might be enough to power a warp engine. But be careful, we don't have much experience containing nonsense like this, there could be an accident.

[formerlyofCtown]

On 4/7/2019 at 4:08 PM, OCinBuffalo said:

First, other threads are for discussing which player at what pick. This thread is about moving around the board to gain the right value for the Bills. There's been a premise floating around this board that I think is as accurate as it is troublesome: The Bills have too many draft picks this year(10), therefore, we may end up drafting people that don't make the team: waste our capital.

 

--

 

tl;dr: To avoid waste, trade down with the Skins(Rd 1) then back up with ARZ or SF(Rd 3). We shed all our 4-7 rd picks for their high 3rd and either: (ARZ) keep our 6th, or (SF) get their 6th and keep our last 7th. We can stay put and get SF 3rd by shedding 4-7. This squares with the new value chart, and gives us 4 picks in top 3 rounds. Tanking teams might make bad trade up deals to us this year, to ensure they suck = get their QB next year + 1 sure bet player this year. Full explanations below.

 

--

 

We've been through this before in 2014: 4th Round CB Ross Cockrell. He was cut, then immediately started for the Steelers for next 3 years and by all accounts is a quality player. We did not miss on the pick. We mismanaged the team. Period. Since this debacle we've had street FA/castoff CBs on the field, every season. We unsolved the problem. Some fans have sat stupefied wondering why our O line, their answer to all problems, doesn't prevent teams from torching us for multiple TD leads, or coming back on us by scoring 3 TDs, in a single quarter...from the bench. The rest of that argument is for another thread, but, there can be no doubt: we wasted draft capital.

 

How to avoid repetition of that error? First understand that, despite ignorant/wishful claims to the contrary(ahem, RG3 trade fan bois:  ), responsible teams still use the value chart when they make trades. Teams probably do not use the old Jimmy Johnson chart. In fact, significant analysis has been done to prove 2 things: that teams still use a chart, but, that it's been slightly altered(the guy explains his work in links on this page). Also, remember that compensatory picks CAN be traded now, which means the value chart had to be altered regardless. Also, also, there seems to be some unknown modifier pts that are added if a team trades back into the first round(presumptively because of the 5th year option). This means that trades back into the first cost more than the value chart says they should, and this works out to ~an extra 5th/6th. Ultimately, the first thing is to do is accept the fact that each draft pick has a pre-assigned value.

 

Next, we can total up the value for the entire Bills draft: 675 (new chart), 2,262 (old chart). Consider, for context: Going Full Mike Ditka(search: Ditka Draft), leaves us short (1000-675=) -325 in the new, and - 738 in the old, in trying to trade up to #1 overall. For the rest of the post I'm just gonna use the new chart. 325 = #2 pick in the 24-25 range(#56-57 overall). It's generally accepted that the value of a next year's pick is one round down, so, #1 next year = #2 this year. We'd have to trade our whole draft this year, and next year's #1, #2, #3 and #4(675 + 193.5(387/2) + 74.5(149/2) + 32(64/2) + 13(26/2) = 988) to trade up to this year's #1 overall. Yes, it's not 1000, and yes we could add the #5 to get it to 994, etc...stop. I'm merely laying out how the chart/math works.

 

There are exceptions, like with the Raiders in 2013. Oakland needed bodies badly, and had to trade down. But, everybody knew that, so the Raiders got fleeced by the Dolphins: #3, for only #12 and #42. Upside: the Dophins squandered their pick on Dion Jordan. They ended up stealing: nothing. The value chart doesn't compensate for the Raiders...being the Raiders.

 

Moving on to a realistic value analysis: How about the value of our entire 4-7? = 75 = SF's 3rd round pick #3(67th overall). If we were to make that deal, we'd have a 1, 2, and 2 3s. This would go along way towards fixing our problem. Drafting 4 players in the top 3 Rds ensures no waste, and our FO hits on picks.

What if we traded out of the #9 pick? Let's say to #15 (after all it's the Redskins, of RG3 trade "fame"). That's 72 pts = their #3 and #5. Our 4-7 is now worth 86 = KC's #2(29, 61 overall). Now we have a #1, two #2s, and two #3s. KC won't do that. They don't need the bodies. A more likely trade? Our whole 4-7, minus our #6(or we get theirs), for ARZ's #3. They need lots of players + new head coach. That gives us a 1, 2, two 3s and a 6. Going back the SF trade above, who also needs bodies, same deal, but we get their #6, and keep our last 7.

 

4 players in the top 3 rounds + one 6(+ perhaps a 7) vs. 3, then 7 in the bottom 4. Obviously better. Better chance of making the team. 0 waste. This, or something like this, seems reasonable. Perhaps that's what we'll see. I hope so.

 

Also, many Dophins fans say they are tanking for (best QB in 2020). It may be counterintuitive, but, the best approach to tanking may be to trade up with us in round 1, for a long term, sure thing, giving away picks they don't want on their team-->might win too many games this year. Likely tank candidates: MIA, CIN, DEN. Shadow Tankers(teams that will swear to God they are trying to win, but aren't): PIT, NYG, BAL, GB. The draft will probably tell us a lot about who is tanking. And once again, look at the value chart. There's a HUGE difference in value between #1 overall and #3, which means if you're gonna tank, you better mean it. No last minute heroics that get you to 4-12.

 

Tanking means we get even more room to maneuver, because these teams will do bad deals: they want to lose. Anyhow, I'm there's lot of scenarios that you guys can find.

Yes our top rated secondary is filled with castoffs because the Steelers apparently had the #1 pass D and not us.

[Warcodered]

Just now, OCinBuffalo said:

Jesus....and how did you arrive at that? Show your work.

Sure it's pretty simple there are 128 unique results(2^7) each with an equal chance of occurring and only 1 of which is heads 7 times. 1/128=.0078125

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Jesus....and how did you arrive at that? Show your work.

Basic statistics.  Each flip is 0.5 (head or tail) to the power of the number of flips.  0.5 to the 7th power is 0.78%.

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Your first statement is unsubstantiated.

No, I have substantiated it...by comparing each draft pick traded on one side, to picks trades on the other, and they add up...to exactly what the value chart requires. 

 

Tell me about the trade of Polian's you found that didn't. Go on. Don't be shy.

[formerlyofCtown]

On 4/7/2019 at 4:11 PM, BuffaloButt said:

I'll respond after someone else summarizes this in one sentence!  Thanks!!?

I stopped reading when he tried to compare Ross Cockrell to our secondary lol definitely not a week point.

 

McDermott is the CB whisperer.

Edited April 10, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Dr. Who]

I wonder if OCinBuffalo and TaskersGhost are related? Who is more condescending? Who is grumpier? Is OCinBuffalo TaskersGhost when he's off his meds?

[formerlyofCtown]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You don't run an NFL team either.  I consider Bill Polian to be one of the best GMs in history.  And he would laugh when the concept of the draft chart came up.  I'll go with Bill

I laugh at the draft chart but Polian although good, he is also overrated.

[Doc Brown]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You don't run an NFL team either.  I consider Bill Polian to be one of the best GMs in history.  And he would laugh when the concept of the draft chart came up.  I'll go with Bill

Any competent GM uses the draft chart including Bill Polian.  Even those who are deeply skeptical of analytics.  

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

No, I have substantiated it...by comparing each draft pick traded on one side, to picks trades on the other, and they add up...to exactly what the value chart requires. 

 

Tell me about the trade of Polian's you found that didn't. Go on. Don't be shy.

I'm not making the claim you are.  I'm only stating what Polian said years ago.

1 minute ago, formerlyofCtown said:

I laugh at the draft chart but Polian although good, he is also overrated.

Nah.  He was a wizard back in the day.

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Any competent GM uses the draft chart including Bill Polian.  Even those who are deeply skeptical of analytics.  

Maybe more recently.  I just know back in the day he'd laugh any time it was brought up.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm not making the claim you are.  I'm only stating what Polian said years ago.

Nah.  He was a wizard back in the day.

Maybe more recently.  I just know back in the day he'd laugh any time it was brought up.

Bill Polian didnt draft those SB teams.

[Dopey]

3 hours ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Buddy I've been doing analytics since before it was called analytics, and before it was called business intelligence. Don't make presumptions about statistical analysis with me: you'll make yourself look like an idiot. You have been warned.

 

Your statement is patently false. Hitting or not on a pick(setting aside the subjective evaluation of whether a hit, is a hit) has the same probability for each pick. Having more of them does NOT effect the probability of each pick. Every casino in the world loves your understanding of "statistics". 

 

To simplify it for you: I am not more likely to get heads when I flip a coin, if I flip it 10 times, rather than once. Hitting or not hitting on a draft pick has, as defined by you, a binary outcome: you hit or you do not hit. This means that each draft pick has a 50% chance "to hit". Drafting 7 guys that all miss, is just as likely as drafting 1 guy that hits == 50%.

 

Seems to me that you have some statistics class(es) to take. Hint: the draft is not bingo. Your "reasoning" is bingo-based.

So, you've been doing analytics for a while, cool man, cool. But this isn't flipping a coin. If "hitting" on a pick has the same probability for each pick, I'll take the 7 chances at 50% over the 1 chance, thank you. Those stats don't equate to 7 picks(rds 4-7) for 1 3rd rd pick.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Dopey

[ndirish1978]

12 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Nothing to do with power, everything to do with: this is how I run my threads, you're free to run yours your way. 

 

This is a message board. If you create a topic, that is now a topic of conversation that the entire board is free to comment on, deride, or ignore. At no point in time does creating a topic make the thread "yours." I submit that if your goal was to promote a conversation, insulting the people who post in this topic is not the best way to do that. Otherwise, to use your advanced stats- there is a 100% chance this is really just a LAMP post about how you think you're smart. 

[Big Turk]

OP has been playing Madden way too much. He thinks the Bills can just trade a pick whenever they want because they want to trade it...this doesnt happen IRL...There has to be a REASON for a team to want to trade up or down from their position.

 

 

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

Yes our top rated secondary is filled with castoffs because the Steelers apparently had the #1 pass D and not us.

This past year: 1 time out of 10 that was true. So, I suppose we just write off the other 9...in a division...with Tom Brady. Oh, yeah, makes tons of sense. 

 

Hey, in general, I'm finally happy about what we have going into this season: I haven't been for 14 seasons before this one. So, what, am I supposed to just forget the 14 years of people complaining when we draft a CB high, or at any position? I'll be happy if we pick up one more quality DB, one way or another, that I can see can play, before the season.

 

This thread is about waste: if we take a OT at #9, and a G for our 3rd I'll be happy. Why? Because for all the FAs? I have no idea if we have 5 starting caliber OLs on this team. Even with Dawkins, who took a step back last year. I have NEVER been supportive of an O line pick at 1 or 2(looking at you Kouandjio)...but last year's O line was a dumpster fire, and no it wasn't preventable via the draft: you can't predict both Wood and Incognito being gone so abruptly, and you can't do anything about it when you need to draft a QB. 

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Bill Polian didnt draft those SB teams.

GM in 86.  Drafted Thurman, Conlan and other mainstays.  And I believe was instrumental in getting Kelly here.

[OCinBuffalo]

24 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

If you can provide evidence that you are also SDS, I’m happy to oblige. You may have started a thread, but you can’t control how people respond. It doesn’t mean you will get rave reviews. 

You can ask anybody this also: Do I care? Never. Do the mods care? Never. I run my threads the way I run them, precisely because it ensures quality...which is all SDS cares about, and what this board is known for. 

 

You think you'll be able to whine to a mod because you are being crushed for posting garbage in one of my threads?  Good luck with that.

24 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

But what if @Gugny wants to tell you how he makes sausage? What are the consequences? I just might enjoy that! 

Gugny wouldn't do that. He and I get along far too well. And, also: Gugny knows what's best for Gugny, and what's best isn't posting crap in my threads.

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

The sheer nonsense of this might be enough to power a warp engine. But be careful, we don't have much experience containing nonsense like this, there could be an accident.

This is basic stats.  Claiming you have the same chance of missing 7 draft picks (or hitting all heads if we assume it's a binary choice) is the same as one pick or one coin flip) is simply wrong.  The former has a probability of 0.78% and the latter 50%.  

 

Also draft picks and their subsequent performance are not binary in nature.  You could have a star, an average player, a guy that gets cut, and everything in between.

Edited April 10, 2019 by oldmanfan

[OCinBuffalo]

24 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

This doesn’t seem to be going very well. 

It's going great: notice how the crap stopped and people started posting substance again? Works. Every. Single. Time.

[formerlyofCtown]

Just now, OCinBuffalo said:

This past year: 1 time out of 10 that was true. So, I suppose we just write off the other 9...in a division...with Tom Brady. Oh, yeah, makes tons of sense. 

 

Hey, in general, I'm finally happy about what we have going into this season: I haven't been for 14 seasons before this one. So, what, am I supposed to just forget the 14 years of people complaining when we draft a CB high, or at any position? I'll be happy if we pick up one more quality DB, one way or another, that I can see can play, before the season.

 

This thread is about waste: if we take a OT at #9, and a G for our 3rd I'll be happy. Why? Because for all the FAs? I have no idea if we have 5 starting caliber OLs on this team. Even with Dawkins, who took a step back last year. I have NEVER been supportive of an O line pick at 1 or 2(looking at you Kouandjio)...but last year's O line was a dumpster fire, and no it wasn't preventable via the draft: you can't predict both Wood and Incognito being gone so abruptly, and you can't do anything about it when you need to draft a QB. 

Stephon Gilmore and RonaldDarby.

Tre White and EJ Gaines

Tre White and Wallace

McDermott just needs one CB and just some other dude he will coach up.

Im fine whatever they do.  They have the ability to upgrade every position but QB, S.  I also believe we are pretty deep at CB.

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

GM in 86.  Drafted Thurman, Conlan and other mainstays.  And I believe was instrumental in getting Kelly here.

And the rest of his drafts.

[oldmanfan]

I

2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Stephon Gilmore and RonaldDarby.

Tre White and EJ Gaines

Tre White and Wallace

McDermott just needs one CB and just some other dude he will coach up.

Im fine whatever they do.  They have the ability to upgrade every position but QB, S.  I also believe we are pretty deep at CB.

And the rest of his drafts.

I meant his drafts throughout his tenure, not just '86.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

You can ask anybody this also: Do I care? Never. Do the mods care? Never. I run my threads the way I run them, precisely because it ensures quality...which is all SDS cares about, and what this board is known for. 

 

You think you'll be able to whine to a mod because you are being crushed for posting garbage in one of my threads?  Good luck with that.

 

They are not YOUR threads. They are threads. On the board. Your inability to recognize that is why you have seen some ridicule. I don’t even know what your point is, it got lost in your uppitiness. 

[OCinBuffalo]

21 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Sure it's pretty simple there are 128 unique results(2^7) each with an equal chance of occurring and only 1 of which is heads 7 times. 1/128=.0078125

 

21 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Basic statistics.  Each flip is 0.5 (head or tail) to the power of the number of flips.  0.5 to the 7th power is 0.78%.

Basic 8th grade math, which both of you should be made to re-take. God where is Ramius when we need him...this is approaching 3.5 status. 

 

Possible combinations are not probable results. And results are not outcomes. Possible combinations have no predictive value whatsoever. Multiplying things to 7th power....does something somewhere, I am sure(perhaps it cures Madonna's Hep C?)...but it does not predict outcomes of flipping a coin. 

24 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I wonder if OCinBuffalo and TaskersGhost are related? Who is more condescending? Who is grumpier? Is OCinBuffalo TaskersGhost when he's off his meds?

Great post. Wanna try posting something that isn't garbage. Better: do you actually know anything about the draft? CB play? Or hey how about O line play? Let's start with an easy one: given our personnel so far, are we setting up to be a power or zone blocking team?

 

Can you answer that? 

[Augie]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

 

 Basic 8th grade math, which both of you should be made to re-take. God where is Ramius when we need him...this is approaching 3.5 status. 

 

Possible combinations are not probable results. And results are not outcomes. Possible combinations have no predictive value whatsoever. Multiplying things to 7th power....does something somewhere, I am sure(perhaps it cures Madonna's Hep C?)...but it does not predict outcomes of flipping a coin. 

 

Have you ever questioned your interpersonal skills? 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

 

Basic 8th grade math, which both of you should be made to re-take. God where is Ramius when we need him...this is approaching 3.5 status. 

 

Possible combinations are not probable results. And results are not outcomes. Possible combinations have no predictive value whatsoever. Multiplying things to 7th power....does something somewhere, I am sure(perhaps it cures Madonna's Hep C?)...but it does not predict outcomes of flipping a coin. 

You keep confusing singular events with cumulative events.  The probability of a single coin flip being heads is 50%.  Anytime you flip one.  The probability of getting all heads in 7 flips is 0.5 to the 7th power.  Anyone who has taken basic stats knows this, or should.  The reason I chose 7 is your claim that you have the same chance of 7 draft picks busting as you do one.

 

With your logic if I flip a coin 100 times the probability of 100 heads is the same as one coin flip giving me one heads. That is patently absurd.

 

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by oldmanfan

[OCinBuffalo]

25 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

I laugh at the draft chart but Polian although good, he is also overrated.

You laugh at something that is literally proven to be valid by every draft trade since 2012. What else do you laugh at: the earth being round?

[Dopey]

40 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Refusing to post anything of substance will 100% of the time get you crushed in my threads. Ask anybody. You can start: now. 

 

Or GTFO of my thread. 

Instead of getting off on thinking you crushed someone, take your thread and shove it up yours. You don't mean enough to anyone that they would feel "crushed", other than yourself. You ain't all that.  

[Chandler#81]

Choo choo chugga-chugga Choo choo SCREEEEEEeeeeeech! *CRASH!*