Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, GG said:

You don't sign Beasley for that FA contract to be rotational depth.  Recall that he turned the Cowboys and Pats* down.  If he did that, there must have been more than a hint about his upcoming role with the Bills that doesn't include being a spot rotation guy.

 

I agree that Beasley's contract indicates that they expect him to play a key role as a WR.

 

I do think it's possible that Daboll envisions using some WR rotation even with highly-paid guys (recall he likes his 2 TE formations), but that's not quite the same as "rotational depth"

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

 

Here is the deal. The entire WR crew is essentially Zay. You could argue that any of them being cut based on how good each is compare to others. However, logic says 1) Zay was drafted in the 2nd round so Bills likely not giving up yet 2) Beasley and Brown were just signed so likely sticking around 3) Everyone else is up for grabs.

 

3) Andre Roberts.   Foster very likely to stay if he pays attention and works on his routes.

 

Basically, one slot on the 53 and one slot on PS up for grabs unless injuries (avert)

 

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I agree that Beasley's contract indicates that they expect him to play a key role as a WR.

 

I do think it's possible that Daboll envisions using some WR rotation even with highly-paid guys (recall he likes his 2 TE formations), but that's not quite the same as "rotational depth"

 

 

 

 

Then follow the logic - assuming that Brown, Foster and Beasley are penciled in as starters, plus a 2 TE set, where does that leave Zay?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, GG said:

 

Then follow the logic - assuming that Brown, Foster and Beasley are penciled in as starters, plus a 2 TE set, where does that leave Zay?

 

It's the assumption that isn't logical.

[GG]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's the assumption that isn't logical.

 

Please break down the logic of how these guys aren't at the top of the depth chart at this point?

[Victory Formation]

32 minutes ago, GG said:

 

You don't sign Beasley for that FA contract to be rotational depth.  Recall that he turned the Cowboys and Pats* down.  If he did that, there must have been more than a hint about his upcoming role with the Bills that doesn't include being a spot rotation guy

That's a lot of snaps though. About as much as a #1 or #2 receiver would get. Beasley will and should get moved all over. That's a ton of targets.

[BuffaloHokie13]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

It's the assumption that isn't logical.

isn't it though? Those 3 are who should be the frontrunners.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, GG said:

Please break down the logic of how these guys aren't at the top of the depth chart at this point?

 

Dude, c'mon.  I've explained several times in several posts, some of them right in this thread.  Use the "search" function

 

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

isn't it though? Those 3 are who should be the frontrunners.

 

As I said

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Dude, c'mon.  I've explained several times in several posts, some of them right in this thread.  Use the "search" function

 

As I said

The search function is pretty rough, tbh. What terms can I search to find the post you want me to read?

 

I went through your activity instead of the search function. So your assertion is that John Brown isn't the defacto #1 because he didn't produce due to injuries in Denver (he was in Arizona, I think you just team swapped Brown & McKenzie) and his best year was the first 8 games in Baltimore. The injury concern I think is a bit moot. In his 5 seasons he has played in 16, 15, 15, 10, and 16 games.  He was WR3 in Arizona, even when he was healthy. When he got the opportunity to be WR1 he paced for and 1100 yard season until the team swapped to a QB that ran nearly as often as he threw.

 

But even simpler than that, I'm just looking at who are the best 3 WRs on our roster. The answer, to me at least, is very clearly John Brown, Robert Foster, and Cole Beasley. I'm not looking at them as 1, 2, & 3 - I'm looking at Foster as X, Brown as Z, and Beasley as Slot. Look at them head to head. I don't believe Zay is better at any of those roles than those any of those guys.

Edited May 8, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[GG]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dude, c'mon.  I've explained several times in several posts, some of them right in this thread.  Use the "search" function

 

 

As I said

 

 

No you did not.  How does Zay have an inside shot to get more snaps than the marquee slot FA they just signed, especially with a lot more bodies at TE as well?   Is Zay miraculously going to reclaim a flanker spot where he failed miserably?

7 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

That's a lot of snaps though. About as much as a #1 or #2 receiver would get. Beasley will and should get moved all over. That's a ton of targets.

 

Yes, those would be the snaps for Beasley.  What's left over for Zay?

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, GG said:

 

No you did not.  How does Zay have an inside shot to get more snaps than the marquee slot FA they just signed, especially with a lot more bodies at TE as well?   Is Zay miraculously going to reclaim a flanker spot where he failed miserably?

 

Yes, those would be the snaps for Beasley.  What's left over for Zay?

 

Yea, there is no way Zay starts over Beasley in the slot. To me Foster will start as the X, Beasley will start in the slot and then the other spot is up for grabs between Brown, Zay and anyone else who shines in camp

Edited May 8, 2019 by GunnerBill

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

People keep saying this.  What is your definition of garbage time, and can you demonstrate that Zay's stats came in "garbage time"?

Because, first off, my dislike of the phrase "garbage time" is well-known here.  "Garbage time" is often just used to mean a comeback that failed.

Second off, if I make a guess what "garbage time" means, I can't demonstrate that.

 

Show me the link to the splits that prove your point.  No one else has - we fall back on the "eyeball test".  I can look up splits with the best of 'em and I don't see what's being vociferously reiterated without supporting evidence.

 

I have watched every offensive snap Allen took for the Bills last year.  What I see in Zay is a guy who is doing his job and is a better player than he is getting credit for. 

He came back and reached for the ball at times.  One of his most "called out" bobbled catches was a wheel route where he moved in and came back, and yes he bobbled it but the other WR on our roster last year wouldn't have come back and reached for the ball in the first place.  There were times when he and Allen clearly were not on the same page about the route he should run, and I lack the information to tell if that's Zay's mistake or Allen's.  He got open on many plays (often by scheme, which is Daboll's thing) where Allen either made a different choice, or protection collapsed before the play developed.  He blocks willingly - he's not a great blocker, but he tries and usually interferes enough.  This didn't matter on many plays because our RBs seldom reached the 2nd level.

 

I haven't seen him make those high degree of difficulty one-handed jumping catches.  But I haven't seen anyone else on the Bills make those for, what, something like 10 years?  2008 Lee Evans?  I guess Watkins made a few, but not enough to register with me.

 

 

Except that they aren't facts.  They are your take, and they can be disputed. 

My "eye test" is different when I watch coach's film, which I do a lot.  He had little RAC because a lot of the throws to him were in traffic, and he got the majority of the expected YAC he was scored for (2.6 out of 2.9 yds).  In addition Allen's throws were off-target enough (to all his WR, not just Zay) so as to often preclude YAC.  WR can't gain YAC if they're adjusting, going down or leaping or reaching for the ball. 

The only possible "fact" there is Zay didn't gain separation when asked to sprint down the field as Foster did.   Zay's not a burner, despite his relatively good combine 40 time.  But that's not what's needed the majority of the time in Daboll's scheme.  Daboll schemes guys open.  Then it's on the QB to figure out which side of the field the play will be on given the D and make his progressions, and on the OL to give the QB enough time.

It really doesn't matter, no one is going to be persuaded, I just want to put it out there that these aren't facts, and they can be disputed and are, by people who put in the time watching film.

 

 

Great!  Find it and link the post, because I've been reading this thread and I didn't see it.  For anyone who doesn't know, if you click on the posting time on a computer, the URL specific to that post will appear and can be copied and pasted in.

And certainly you can explain what you, personally, mean by "garbage time" or "when it doesn't matter".  What are the games when it didn't matter, and when in those games didn't it matter?

 

Here is that breakdown that you requested from the other poster. Breakdown is done by @Alphadawg7 Originally on page 32, 11th post down.

 

I get why you would say this, but the 7 TD's statement lacks context.  And when you like at the truth behind the number, its really not as good as saying 7 TDs.

• 4 of them came in two games against a bad Miami team, including week 17 when the Fins didnt even bother to show up.  
• Another came in the final minute of a blow out loss down 3 scores.  Pats left him uncovered for a basically free 31 yard meaningless TD when game was over.  He was dominated the rest of the game by the Pats secondary.  

So is it really isn't as impressive to say "7 TD's" if you know the back story to them.  Especially when he was so irrelevant in just about every other game, failed to make plays that contributed to some of our losses, and was so significantly outmatched in several games against better opposition.  

 

The one positive thing I will say for Zay, is that with better WRs here now, he likely will draw easier coverage.  So maybe thats what helps him stick or be more relevant.  But he showed very poorly against quality corners in both his first 2 years to go along with unreliable hands and average at best route running

 

 

26 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

The search function is pretty rough, tbh. What terms can I search to find the post you want me to read?

 

I went through your activity instead of the search function. So your assertion is that John Brown isn't the defacto #1 because he didn't produce due to injuries in Denver (he was in Arizona, I think you just team swapped Brown & McKenzie) and his best year was the first 8 games in Baltimore. The injury concern I think is a bit moot. In his 5 seasons he has played in 16, 15, 15, 10, and 16 games.  He was WR3 in Arizona, even when he was healthy. When he got the opportunity to be WR1 he paced for and 1100 yard season until the team swapped to a QB that ran nearly as often as he threw.

 

But even simpler than that, I'm just looking at who are the best 3 WRs on our roster. The answer, to me at least, is very clearly John Brown, Robert Foster, and Cole Beasley. I'm not looking at them as 1, 2, & 3 - I'm looking at Foster as X, Brown as Z, and Beasley as Slot. Look at them head to head. I don't believe Zay is better at any of those roles than those any of those guys.

Page 32. 11th post down

Edited May 8, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy

[tomur67]

I hope they keep Beasley, Brown. Foster, Jones, Williams and Sills.  I think that gives the Bills a good range of abilities.

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Page 32. 11th post down

I found and responded to a different post that was more relevant to my question. Thank you, though!

[Patrick Duffy]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I found and responded to a different post that was more relevant to my question. Thank you, though!

 

Oh sorry. Thought it was in reference to this one. It's allgood

 

[ColoradoBills]

50 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

The search function is pretty rough, tbh. What terms can I search to find the post you want me to read?

 

I went through your activity instead of the search function. So your assertion is that John Brown isn't the defacto #1 because he didn't produce due to injuries in Denver (he was in Arizona, I think you just team swapped Brown & McKenzie) and his best year was the first 8 games in Baltimore. The injury concern I think is a bit moot. In his 5 seasons he has played in 16, 15, 15, 10, and 16 games.  He was WR3 in Arizona, even when he was healthy. When he got the opportunity to be WR1 he paced for and 1100 yard season until the team swapped to a QB that ran nearly as often as he threw.

 

But even simpler than that, I'm just looking at who are the best 3 WRs on our roster. The answer, to me at least, is very clearly John Brown, Robert Foster, and Cole Beasley. I'm not looking at them as 1, 2, & 3 - I'm looking at Foster as X, Brown as Z, and Beasley as Slot. Look at them head to head. I don't believe Zay is better at any of those roles than those any of those guys.

 

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea, there is no way Zay starts over Beasley in the slot. To me Foster will start as the X, Beasley will start in the slot and then the other spot is up for grabs between Brown, Zay and anyone else who shines in camp

 

I'll agree that Beasley will almost certainly be the primary slot receiver.

If Foster and Brown are the X and Z which is a good possibility they may start the games as the primaries.

My question is how much rotation can be expected?  IF as many are projecting that because of JAs arm strength and the

perceived chance of a long ball down the field on any given down, that both the X and Z will stretch the field often.

 

If the above scenario happens often then the rotational WR spelling the X and Z may get a fairly high number of snaps.

Being that Zay has played all WR spots already he may be that guy and still end up with a large role in the offense.

Logically, if that holds true the other WR would likely be a big Red Zone target type.

Roberts may see some WR time if he can repeat a McKenzie role.

 

I can also see at times during a game that Foster and Brown rotate among themselves and try to "burn out" a CB.

 

No matter what the WR usage will be under Daboll this year, Zay needs to take his game up a notch or two.

[GunnerBill]

52 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

The search function is pretty rough, tbh. What terms can I search to find the post you want me to read?

 

I went through your activity instead of the search function. So your assertion is that John Brown isn't the defacto #1 because he didn't produce due to injuries in Denver (he was in Arizona, I think you just team swapped Brown & McKenzie) and his best year was the first 8 games in Baltimore. The injury concern I think is a bit moot. In his 5 seasons he has played in 16, 15, 15, 10, and 16 games.  He was WR3 in Arizona, even when he was healthy. When he got the opportunity to be WR1 he paced for and 1100 yard season until the team swapped to a QB that ran nearly as often as he threw.

 

But even simpler than that, I'm just looking at who are the best 3 WRs on our roster. The answer, to me at least, is very clearly John Brown, Robert Foster, and Cole Beasley. I'm not looking at them as 1, 2, & 3 - I'm looking at Foster as X, Brown as Z, and Beasley as Slot. Look at them head to head. I don't believe Zay is better at any of those roles than those any of those guys.

 

Exactly how I see it BH. And you have to consider the fit for the offense. In offense with a short, ball out quick rhythm passer I'd say someone like Zay who will run across the middle and be effective on shorter routes might have more value as the Z. But in an offense that wants to push the ball down the field I think that Brown probably has the edge.

[Victory Formation]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Yes, those would be the snaps for Beasley.  What's left over for Zay?

Players need breaks, there's plenty of targets for 4 players. I don't see the problem. Zay is a better player than Beasley, he can line up at 1 or 2, Beasley can't and this is coming from a guy that loves Cole but he is a #3 at best, probably even a #4 on many teams. Zay Jones could potentially develop into a #1, Cole will never be that.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 hour ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 

Here is that breakdown that you requested from the other poster. Breakdown is done by @Alphadawg7 Originally on page 32, 11th post down.

 

I get why you would say this, but the 7 TD's statement lacks context.  And when you like at the truth behind the number, its really not as good as saying 7 TDs.

• 4 of them came in two games against a bad Miami team, including week 17 when the Fins didnt even bother to show up.  
• Another came in the final minute of a blow out loss down 3 scores.  Pats left him uncovered for a basically free 31 yard meaningless TD when game was over.  He was dominated the rest of the game by the Pats secondary.  

So is it really isn't as impressive to say "7 TD's" if you know the back story to them.  Especially when he was so irrelevant in just about every other game, failed to make plays that contributed to some of our losses, and was so significantly outmatched in several games against better opposition.  

 

The one positive thing I will say for Zay, is that with better WRs here now, he likely will draw easier coverage.  So maybe thats what helps him stick or be more relevant.  But he showed very poorly against quality corners in both his first 2 years to go along with unreliable hands and average at best route running

 

 

Page 32. 11th post down

 

So really it is 1 garbage time touchdown.  Got it. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, tomur67 said:

I hope they keep Beasley, Brown. Foster, Jones, Williams and Sills.  I think that gives the Bills a good range of abilities.

Except we do t gave anyone that can return punts and kicks 

19 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Players need breaks, there's plenty of targets for 4 players. I don't see the problem. Zay is a better player than Beasley, he can line up at 1 or 2, Beasley can't and this is coming from a guy that loves Cole but he is a #3 at best, probably even a #4 on many teams. Zay Jones could potentially develop into a #1, Cole will never be that.

You’re using 1,2 and 3.  In many cases, your #3 leads the team in catches and targets.

 

sure Zay is more capable of playing the “x and z” but Beasley will rarely be playing those spots, so who cares.  Beasley is a better slot receiver than Zay at this point. Not doubt

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Players need breaks, there's plenty of targets for 4 players. I don't see the problem. Zay is a better player than Beasley, he can line up at 1 or 2, Beasley can't and this is coming from a guy that loves Cole but he is a #3 at best, probably even a #4 on many teams. Zay Jones could potentially develop into a #1, Cole will never be that.

6it gets hard to have a meaningful conversation when you say Zay could develop into a #1. If Zay could, any one could.  What has Zay ever done that makes him look ANYTHING like OBJ, Julio, Green, Hopkins, Megatron, Fitzgerald, even that headhunter who left Miami for Cleveland?  Nothing, that's what. Sure anything is possible, but Zay is about as likely to be a number 1 receiver in the NFL as I am.