Jump to content

McBeane's Gambit


Batman1876

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

When McBeane took over in 2017 they saw a team that was in a tough spot.  Little cap room in 2017 and even less in 2018. The previous few drafts had provided precious little talent to build around.  There were big money players under preforming their contracts. Our championship window was closing on a team that was mediocre at best.  Big money contracts would necessitate we ditch some talent to make room to fill a roster and we'd chug along with the mediocre play that had defined most of the drought.  But they decided to take it another route. 

 

McBeane's gambit was to get rid of all that talent that would not be a part of the team's future as soon as possible, trading them for draft assets.  The Number of trades made over the course of that first year was truly staggering. They turned talent that they did not see as the future of the team into two 2nd round picks, two 3rd round picks, a 5th round pick and two 7th round picks. This would not come without a cost, in the form of huge dead cap money and a roster with holes. The benefits could be huge too, lots of draft capital with which to get young talent and a very favorable roster situation in 2019. The Bills have 91 million available next year and only 4 players cost more to cut than they do to keep 3 of those being out 2017, 2018 first round picks. 

 

The writing was on the wall that they knew this season would be rough. They Chose dead cap and draft picks over keeping under preforming guys, who were nevertheless talented. They picked two developmental guys in the 1st round. They left free agency with an assortment of depth guys, over the hill veteran leadership guys, cheep risky guys who may be good and maybe a role player or two. they traded away 2018's roster so they'd have more tools to build 2019's roster.

 

The last 12 months set the stage for McBeane's gambit and the next 12 months will ultimately determine if it will pay off. 

 

Whether one likes what McBeane have done or not, their future will be based on:

 

1) Josh Allen;

 

2) Whether they field a team that can compete in the playoffs next year (not just make the playoffs on fluky plays and good luck).

 

Some might add a number 3 to this.  That would be how things go this year.  If the season is like the first game, they both could be in serious trouble.  As a general rule, however, I think that continuity is good and the lack of continuity has really hurt this team over the past few years. 

 

Although I am not particularly impressed with McBeane, I do think that it would be unfair to fire someone in less than two years or only two years. Nevertheless, if this team gets blown out and embarrasses the franchise on a regular basis this year (like it did yesterday), McBeane will enter GMTM territory, and we know how that ended for him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Buffalo Bills guy.  I wanna see them win.  I dont care who wears the uniform but dont ship off the better one so we can look at perfect passes to the wrong uniform.  Mccarron is a protector of the football.  Alex Smith like, very serviceable.  You be happy with 47-3.  I cant.  I've got maybe 20 years left to see my Bills bring one home. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the thing, with this draft this year McBeane had a once-in-what (20-year?) opportunity to build the core of their team.  '

 

They originally had 6 draft picks in the first three rounds, the 96th of which (last pick in the 3rd) on Phillips.  

 

That means that the other five picks, mid-1st to 3rd/65th (1st pick in the 3rd) that they used on Allen & Edmunds.  Edmunds could have been gotten with the 12th pick meaning that in essence Allen cost the organization the other four picks.  

 

Regardless of what thinks of Allen, or whether he does/doesn't work out, building a team in that way signifies a GM/HC that are novice/kid-in-a-candy-shop/OJT.  

 

They could have built the OL in order to build a foundation, for any QB.  Any.  Instead, they opted for the far riskier "their guy" option.  Well this just in, they could have Rodgers back there and he'd be operating at a fraction of what he's capable of due to the lack of a quality team around him.  Does McBeane really need to have this explained to them?  I don't know, maybe they do.  

 

It's not the method that I would have chosen and not a method from whence championship play/teams comes from.  But it's what they chose which IMO speaks volumes.  

 

Some are talking about 10 picks in next year's draft, but the team only has one pick each in rounds 1-3.  Teams aren't built oni 4th-7th rounders in that way.  The opportunity to have lain a foundation in spades was this Draft, and they opted not to.  

 

They aren't going to have 5 or 6 seasons to prove that they've OJT'd themselves into competence.  They're going to sink or swim now on Allen.  I'm not sure I'd want my future career hinging on a QB that has no OL, no WRs, a RB with one foot out-the-door, an overrated defense, and no reasonably possible way to build all of that within two more seasons given how they squandered their opportunity this year.  

 

Their "gambit" is Allen.  But only a fool would wager everything on a QB w/o really any of the core pieces in place otherwise in order to build a winning team.  

 

The on top of that, signing players like Lotolelei to enormous contract when not one metrics site had him rated as anything other than below-average, and why, because McBeane come from Carolina and they know better than everyone else?  

 

Fumigating the place from Whaley is necessary, but the moves they're making are hardly career-endorsing moves.  Like all GMs/HCs, they'll have three seasons to "prove themselves."  I have absolutely no idea how putting the pieces in place, particularly with the bar of a playoff "appearance" now being the backdrop, is even possible.  

 

The fans and media are already getting impatient as the buffoonery continues.  This isn't going to end well for them despite how well Allen turns out.  And frankly, it's fine that Allen's "their guy," but unless he turns out to be everything they claim he is, then given their other moves, they're not good coach & GM, because the rest of their moves collectively are below-average.  

Edited by TaskersGhost
Add'l. Info
  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thank you (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

He's got to start hitting on the picks and fill some holes with his FA acquisitions.  We'll know by mid year where were at with FA this year but it sure doesn't look too hot.  We see anymore Panthers signed in free agency in 2019 and this board is going to melt down

 

they have 10 picks next year. but all the extra picks are 3rd day, so unlikely any of them contribute right away. the depth of picks they did amass were all spent in draft day trade ups.

 

They gave away picks for Dawkins, Zay, Allen and Edmunds. 

 

They gave up a 3rd to move up for Zay and traded another 3rd for Benjamin. Both moves look awful.

 

They gave away 2 2's and a 3 (and Cordy Glenn) for Allen and Edmunds. Not saying it wasn't worth it but that's a lot of depth they've given away.

 

When will this team finally get lucky and hit on some mid/late round/UDFA's? It feels like every team does...except us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

It's just so hard to believe the Bills can't build a consistent winner by throwing out the GM/coach every 18 months!

the bills played solid last year considering all things.  the opener was a stinker, but this year, along with the off season needs to play out.  anyone truly calling for this staff to be fired now, (and i can't imagine they're being serious) needs to be sterilized so they can't reproduce.  

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, teef said:

the bills played solid last year considering all things.  the opener was a stinker, but this year, along with the off season needs to play out.  anyone truly calling for this staff to be fired now, (and i can't imagine they're being serious) needs to be sterilized so they can't reproduce.  

So wait for 6 years and they say, yep they are what we thought they were.   Hire someone good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They chose to only go with “ their guys” and jettison talented players who could possibly contribute in the future. In a sense, they bet that ALL their guys would be better than the previous regimes acquisitions over several years. We know the percentages of NFL draft picks that actually pan out, so this was a HUGE gamble. Once their m.o. was apparent , I said they were betting on having one of the best drafting / FA streaks in NFL history. So sure, give it a year or two. It’s not looking great right now and a lot will have to change for them to not go down with the ship. It’s a very arrogant approach. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, gridrick said:

So wait for 6 years and they say, yep they are what we thought they were.   Hire someone good. 

are you able to think like an adult and realize that there was going to be down time to this?  i'm not making excuses for what happened on sunday, but if you're going to hire a staff, give them time to try to build what they set out for.  it doesn't take 6 years, but it takes more than one or two, (especially with this team).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All those moves are fine until you waste the picks moving up in the draft.  Dawkins and Zay Jones caliber players could be had without moving up. They got top 2 DB in the draft after moving down.  

Beane fell in love with a few guys and wasted the draft capital he built.

Its all great if Edmunds is a great LB. Too bad 4/5th of the o-line would not make most NFL rosters.

  • Like (+1) 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, teef said:

are you able to think like an adult and realize that there was going to be down time to this?  i'm not making excuses for what happened on sunday, but if you're going to hire a staff, give them time to try to build what they set out for.  it doesn't take 6 years, but it takes more than one or two, (especially with this team).  

They chose the pilot.  Name another adult around the leauge that doesnt want to even be competitive.  How do you develop anything with an inept quarterback.  You break down the entire team.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

When McBeane took over in 2017 they saw a team that was in a tough spot.  Little cap room in 2017 and even less in 2018. The previous few drafts had provided precious little talent to build around.  There were big money players under preforming their contracts. Our championship window was closing on a team that was mediocre at best.  Big money contracts would necessitate we ditch some talent to make room to fill a roster and we'd chug along with the mediocre play that had defined most of the drought.  But they decided to take it another route. 

 

McBeane's gambit was to get rid of all that talent that would not be a part of the team's future as soon as possible, trading them for draft assets.  The Number of trades made over the course of that first year was truly staggering. They turned talent that they did not see as the future of the team into two 2nd round picks, two 3rd round picks, a 5th round pick and two 7th round picks. This would not come without a cost, in the form of huge dead cap money and a roster with holes. The benefits could be huge too, lots of draft capital with which to get young talent and a very favorable roster situation in 2019. The Bills have 91 million available next year and only 4 players cost more to cut than they do to keep 3 of those being out 2017, 2018 first round picks. 

 

The writing was on the wall that they knew this season would be rough. They Chose dead cap and draft picks over keeping under preforming guys, who were nevertheless talented. They picked two developmental guys in the 1st round. They left free agency with an assortment of depth guys, over the hill veteran leadership guys, cheep risky guys who may be good and maybe a role player or two. they traded away 2018's roster so they'd have more tools to build 2019's roster.

 

The last 12 months set the stage for McBeane's gambit and the next 12 months will ultimately determine if it will pay off. 

Good post indeed.

 

There will always be people questioning the trades - did we get enough return?  Part of trades was getting rid of "bad contracts", or "did not match the scheme",  or getting rid of players that could not be counted on for health reasons. 

 

Allen and Edmunds are key and  Beane will need to hit on his draft picks.  Now that he cleaned up the cap and the dead money clears next season he will need to be very smart with the cap space.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

All those moves are fine until you waste the picks moving up in the draft.  Dawkins and Zay Jones caliber players could be had without moving up. They got top 2 DB in the draft after moving down.  

Beane fell in love with a few guys and wasted the draft capital he built.

Its all great if Edmunds is a great LB. Too bad 4/5th of the o-line would not make most NFL rosters.

obviously hindsight is 20/20 but passing on a QB last year let to this avalanche of blowing draft picks.

 

If they had just taken Watson or Mahomes last year, they wouldn't have gotten Tre and an extra 1, but they would have their starting QB this year. 

 

The trade up for Dawkins didn't costs much, 2 5th's

 

The trade up for Zay cost a 3rd to move 7 spots. That could have been starting quality player. JuJu went #62...

 

So fast forward to this year. Say the Bills still do the Glenn trade, they have pick 12. They take Edmunds there. 

 

This allows them to keep 53, 56 and 65. That could have been 3 more big time impact players. 

 

They botched that pile of picks so badly...

  • Like (+1) 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Could be that they are taking the long view.  

 

I certainly hope so. That’s how we can build something that lasts, and challenges year in and year out. I’m not concerned about this year. As I’ve said many times, I just want to see progress and reason for hope. Hard not to show progress after yesterday!!! All part of the plan. ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

obviously hindsight is 20/20 but passing on a QB last year let to this avalanche of blowing draft picks.

 

If they had just taken Watson or Mahomes last year, they wouldn't have gotten Tre and an extra 1, but they would have their starting QB this year. 

 

The trade up for Dawkins didn't costs much, 2 5th's

 

The trade up for Zay cost a 3rd to move 7 spots. That could have been starting quality player. JuJu went #62...

 

So fast forward to this year. Say the Bills still do the Glenn trade, they have pick 12. They take Edmunds there. 

 

This allows them to keep 53, 56 and 65. That could have been 3 more big time impact players. 

 

They botched that pile of picks so badly...

 

I'm agreeing with you, bud...............

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

Good summary, other than the fact the Bills never had a championship window (more like a keyhole).

 

 

  The Bills have had a fair number of championship windows but Ralph was too tight with money to finish the building process.  The reason that Saban (the second time) and Knox got fed up and left.  The mid-1970's teams and the early 1980's teams could have been SB contenders with just a few more pieces added.  Ralph never quite got the hang of the salary cap era.

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I certainly hope so. That’s how we can build something that lasts, and challenges year in and year out. I’m not concerned about this year. As I’ve said many times, I just want to see progress and reason for hope. Hard not to show progress after yesterday!!! All part of the plan. ?

  I was watching almost everybody but Edmunds yesterday but it has been said he is progressing and for that I am thankful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

Here's the thing, with this draft this year McBeane had a once-in-what (20-year?) opportunity to build the core of their team.  '

 

They originally had 6 draft picks in the first three rounds, the 96th of which (last pick in the 3rd) on Phillips.  

 

That means that the other five picks, mid-1st to 3rd/65th (1st pick in the 3rd) that they used on Allen & Edmunds.  Edmunds could have been gotten with the 12th pick meaning that in essence Allen cost the organization the other four picks.  

 

Regardless of what thinks of Allen, or whether he does/doesn't work out, building a team in that way signifies a GM/HC that are novice/kid-in-a-candy-shop/OJT.  

 

They could have built the OL in order to build a foundation, for any QB.  Any.  Instead, they opted for the far riskier "their guy" option.  Well this just in, they could have Rodgers back there and he'd be operating at a fraction of what he's capable of due to the lack of a quality team around him.  Does McBeane really need to have this explained to them?  I don't know, maybe they do.  

 

It's not the method that I would have chosen and not a method from whence championship play/teams comes from.  But it's what they chose which IMO speaks volumes.  

 

Some are talking about 10 picks in next year's draft, but the team only has one pick each in rounds 1-3.  Teams aren't built oni 4th-7th rounders in that way.  The opportunity to have lain a foundation in spades was this Draft, and they opted not to.  

 

They aren't going to have 5 or 6 seasons to prove that they've OJT'd themselves into competence.  They're going to sink or swim now on Allen.  I'm not sure I'd want my future career hinging on a QB that has no OL, no WRs, a RB with one foot out-the-door, an overrated defense, and no reasonably possible way to build all of that within two more seasons given how they squandered their opportunity this year.  

 

Their "gambit" is Allen.  But only a fool would wager everything on a QB w/o really any of the core pieces in place otherwise in order to build a winning team.  

 

The on top of that, signing players like Lotolelei to enormous contract when not one metrics site had him rated as anything other than below-average, and why, because McBeane come from Carolina and they know better than everyone else?  

 

Fumigating the place from Whaley is necessary, but the moves they're making are hardly career-endorsing moves.  Like all GMs/HCs, they'll have three seasons to "prove themselves."  I have absolutely no idea how putting the pieces in place, particularly with the bar of a playoff "appearance" now being the backdrop, is even possible.  

 

The fans and media are already getting impatient as the buffoonery continues.  This isn't going to end well for them despite how well Allen turns out.  And frankly, it's fine that Allen's "their guy," but unless he turns out to be everything they claim he is, then given their other moves, they're not good coach & GM, because the rest of their moves collectively are below-average.  

One of best posts I’ve read.  Spot on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

obviously hindsight is 20/20 but passing on a QB last year let to this avalanche of blowing draft picks.

 

If they had just taken Watson or Mahomes last year, they wouldn't have gotten Tre and an extra 1, but they would have their starting QB this year.  

 

The trade up for Dawkins didn't costs much, 2 5th's

 

The trade up for Zay cost a 3rd to move 7 spots. That could have been starting quality player. JuJu went #62...

 

So fast forward to this year. Say the Bills still do the Glenn trade, they have pick 12. They take Edmunds there. 

 

This allows them to keep 53, 56 and 65. That could have been 3 more big time impact players. 

 

They botched that pile of picks so badly...

I understand trading up for a QB.  Okay.  That's fine by me.  The QB position is so important that if you think you have your guy.. absolutely.  Pull the trigger. 

 

But any other position on the squad is simply not worth trading up for, IMO.  I hope at some point our GMs will begin to realize that more picks=more chances to hit the jackpot or at least get a quality starter.  With all those extra picks they could have added a lot of quality players and filled a lot of holes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

obviously hindsight is 20/20 but passing on a QB last year let to this avalanche of blowing draft picks.

 

If they had just taken Watson or Mahomes last year, they wouldn't have gotten Tre and an extra 1, but they would have their starting QB this year. 

 

The trade up for Dawkins didn't costs much, 2 5th's

 

The trade up for Zay cost a 3rd to move 7 spots. That could have been starting quality player. JuJu went #62...

 

So fast forward to this year. Say the Bills still do the Glenn trade, they have pick 12. They take Edmunds there. 

 

This allows them to keep 53, 56 and 65. That could have been 3 more big time impact players. 

 

They botched that pile of picks so badly...

Another great post.  Spot on also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, berg1029 said:

I understand trading up for a QB.  Okay.  That's fine by me.  The QB position is so important that if you think you have your guy.. absolutely.  Pull the trigger. 

 

But any other position on the squad is simply not worth trading up for, IMO.  I hope at some point our GMs will begin to realize that more picks=more chances to hit the jackpot or at least get a quality starter.  With all those extra picks they could have added a lot of quality players and filled a lot of holes

 

i agree. especially when our team has been so god awful at drafting, you need as many chances as you can get.

 

i will ask again, who was the last late round/UDFA player who really developed into something for us?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  

  I was watching almost everybody but Edmunds yesterday but it has been said he is progressing and for that I am thankful.

 

I watched Edmunds a lot, as he’s one of the guys I see as being a key to the future (hopefully). He’s also easy to find out there, the GREAT BIG guy flying around.  I think he’s making progress. I loved the hit to cause the fumble. Was that the best play of an awful day? I think as the season goes on he’ll be flying to the right place more and more, with less thinking and fewer wasted steps. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...