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Football Outsiders 2018 Projections


Coach Tuesday

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57 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Wow -- everyone at FO thinks the Bills will suck, and they all seem to think that Allen will be terrible. We shall see. 

 

This is why the Allen pick was so questionable, and why for probably the first time ever the fans were not cheering in the field house when a pick was made (not sure how long they have held that event)...  Beane will either come out looking like a genius for selecting Allen when the football world said not to.  Or, it will be a big "I told you so" from everyone.  So for now, Bills fans will just have to accept the "Allen sucks" talk until he proves otherwise.  That could take a season or two...

Edited by PeterDude
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10 minutes ago, PeterDude said:

 

This is why the Allen pick was so questionable, and why for probably the first time ever the fans were not cheering in the field house when a pick was made (not sure how long they have held that event)...  Beane will either come out looking like a genius for selecting Allen when the football world said not to.  Or, it will be a big "I told you so" from everyone.  So for now, everyone will just have to hear the "Allen sucks" talk until he proves otherwise.  That could take a season or two...

 

the team hasn't seriously been an honest contender since the 1993 season, there is nothing to find but hoping things turn out at this stage.

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10 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

Why?

 

 

2 QBs with no accomplishments and a bad O-line that could get them put out for the season very quickly

 

still hard to believe it's an 0-16 team, that is so hard to do with 1/3 of the NFL being totally rancid any given Sunday, you are bound to match up at home against a team that has totally quit or cannot field a legit NFL team at some point.

 

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1 hour ago, row_33 said:

 

2 QBs with no accomplishments and a bad O-line that could get them put out for the season very quickly

 

still hard to believe it's an 0-16 team, that is so hard to do with 1/3 of the NFL being totally rancid any given Sunday, you are bound to match up at home against a team that has totally quit or cannot field a legit NFL team at some point.

 

 

Totally agree.   I'm not at all surprised that the Bills were the overwhelming choice of the FO commentators to get the #1 pick in 2019, primarily because of the QBs and the OL.  The Bills will be especially vulnerable to teams with strong pass rushes or explosive offenses, and they will a gauntlet of nasty pass rushes  and/or explosive offenses pretty much all season: @Ravens, Chargers, @Vikings, @Packers, @Texans, Patriots, Bears, Jags, Lions, and @Patriots.  The only possible victims seem to be the Titans, @Colts, @Jets,  @Dolphins, Jets, and Dolphins.

 

The strongest reason that I can give for the Bills not going 0-16 is that it's hard to do (I think it's only been done twice since the merger in 1970).

Edited by SoTier
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Just now, SteveFreeman22 said:

Closet Pats fan ? Were you around for the 84, 85 teams ?  I guess if you don't expect any wins, every win is like opening presents on Christmas morning. 

 

You understand there is a difference between rooting for a team and predicting its success, right?

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1 hour ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

Hm. That's one way of looking at it I guess.

 

 

since 1973 I've watched

 

6 excellent seasons with Jim Kelly

at most 6 other very good seasons

 

a few 2 win seasons

 

so what exactly is there to find in this season upcoming to met the 12 that were above mediocrity

 

 

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22 minutes ago, SteveFreeman22 said:

So you're only a contender if you make it to the Super Bo

 

 

It has become a far more binary world for sports fans over the last 40 years;.  Little between a title and failure.

 

Then again, the Giants won 3 World Series recently and nobody outside the fanbase could possibly care less about that great accomplishment.

 

The Raptors have put together 5 very good regular seasons, and folded each time in the playoffs, management cast off the best player for a man who doesn't even want to be in Toronto and won't sign after this year is up.... should be fun.

 

 

13 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

I guess I just have a hard time seeing a zero win season, is all.

 

 

cripes, i don't see zero wins at all, i thought i stated how hard that is to take the collar if a franchise is trying at all...  :D

 

If a team is trying at all it has to win 2 games, I think this is a decent ground zero effort with a good coaching staff and they want to build an honest team, but that takes 3-5 year

 

it looks like another 6-10, that's all.

 

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2 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

The Bills will be all time bad. This really could be an 0-16 team. 

I strongly disagree with. My guess is middle of the pack, with 7 or 8 wins. I think WAY too many people are putting too much emphasis on the pre-season this year.  There is A LOT of talent on this Defense and we are better coached than we have been in years. 

 

There is obviously a big wildcard based on QB play this season, but I think Peterman will be serviceable and Allen will be well above average when he is ready. 

 

There will quite likely plenty of ups and downs this season, but nothing close to 0-16 in my opinion.

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6 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I strongly disagree with. My guess is middle of the pack, with 7 or 8 wins. I think WAY too many people are putting too much emphasis on the pre-season this year.  There is A LOT of talent on this Defense and we are better coached than we have been in years. 

 

There is obviously a big wildcard based on QB play this season, but I think Peterman will be serviceable and Allen will be well above average when he is ready. 

 

There will quite likely plenty of ups and downs this season, but nothing close to 0-16 in my opinion.

Preseason is meaningless to me. I would have liked to not see Vontae Davis and our LBs play crappy, but it's really pointless. 

 

The main reasons I'm predicting a bad season is QB and schedule. By the time the schedule improves Allen will be getting his 1st start. It's a recipe for a long season. Which is fine IMO. It's about developing Allen. Next year will be much better. Talent just isn't there right now to make up for QB mistakes. 

Edited by TheTruthHurts
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We'll win between 3-6 games. No more, no less. Our OL will struggle all year and be the primary focus in FA this spring. If we do land the 1st pick it will be Oliver or Bosa. Somehow our Qbs will both be bruised but survive the year. Edmunds will slightly improve but make rookie mistakes. Enjoy McCoy for this will be his final season, along with Kyle and Lorax. 

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The Bills are hurting on paper, but I have faith McDermott will have them continuing to play over their head. Might not get them to the playoffs this year but I see a lot of teams out there who look worse. I expect Arizona, Oakland, Indy, Cleveland, Indy, Seattle, Miami, NYG and Tampa Bay to all be fighting for a top-five draft pick next spring. 

 

Just for fun, here's my top-five draft order for next year. Feel free to mock me in 17 weeks:

1. Oakland

2. Arizona

3. Indy

4. Tampa Bay

5. Seattle

Edited by Dave Allen
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