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Buffalo Rumblings: Analytics-based approach paying off in professional sports, but the Bills only have "one toe in" the water

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Analytics-based approach paying off in professional sports

 

Another interesting article about analytics. And no, it's not "moneyball." 

Here are some notable highlights:

  • No NFL teams were considered to be “All in.”
  • In all four major sports combined, only one team that was not ranked “All in” or “Believers” have won a Championship (only one of twelve).
  • The sole exception was in the NFL, when the Denver Broncos (“Skeptics”) won the Super Bowl in the 2015-2016 season.
  • Winning percentages between “All in/Believers” were contrasted to the percentages for “Nonbelievers.” The largest disparity between these groups was in the NBA. The NFL had the smallest degree of difference between “All in/Believers” and “Nonbelievers.”

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I don’t think the assessment is very current. 

 

Buffalo rumblings treid to build build a bridge from the past to the present based on one event contrary to what analytics dictact. But that one event was during a prolonged snow squall....

 

im calling this labeling contrived and irrelevant at best 

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The common understanding of Analytics is that it is using any and all data.  Measuring and grabbing any data point to support an argument and trying to make sense of it is a poor approach.   

 

McD has said in interviews that certain data is more important that other data.   As a Lean Six Sigma Master Black this is what I want to hear from a process oriented coach.   McD should be measuring HIS process, and identifying his key performance indicators (key measures).  Then executing to drive those  key numbers.   

 

Based on my limited information on what McD is doing I think the Bills are going about it the correct way.   I just would like him to say "our process".   It is not as if there are no other coaching processes.   Everything is a process even if it is not documented - even Rex and the clowns before him had a processes, just not a good ones.  

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What the heck is a “Lean Six Sigma Master Black?”  😎

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2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Analytics-based approach paying off in professional sports

 

Another interesting article about analytics. And no, it's not "moneyball." 

Here are some notable highlights:

  • No NFL teams were considered to be “All in.”
  • In all four major sports combined, only one team that was not ranked “All in” or “Believers” have won a Championship (only one of twelve).
  • The sole exception was in the NFL, when the Denver Broncos (“Skeptics”) won the Super Bowl in the 2015-2016 season.
  • Winning percentages between “All in/Believers” were contrasted to the percentages for “Nonbelievers.” The largest disparity between these groups was in the NBA. The NFL had the smallest degree of difference between “All in/Believers” and “Nonbelievers.”

 

 

So the Cavs and the Warriors have been using "data" to dominate the NBA finals the past years?

 

 

 

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haha analytics on analytics supposedly showing that analytics works. what a joke.

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

So the Cavs and the Warriors have been using "data" to dominate the NBA finals the past years?

 

 

 

 

You cant be this stupid. You’d forget to breath. 

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1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

What the heck is a “Lean Six Sigma Master Black?”  😎

It's someone with extensive and formal training in program management, use of data to improve processes.  And not a writer for a sports blog.

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1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

What the heck is a “Lean Six Sigma Master Black?”  😎

It's like the bat signal for layoffs at your company, lol.  It's typically preceded by a "consulting" firm, ala Chubb, or Mckinsey and the like, coming in and timing people at their jobs, handing out surveys, etc., looking for fat to trim.  They then make crazy pitches to your management to replace business knowledge and SME with scripts and process flows, and then suggest mass layoffs.  The ones that adapt and know how to play the game keep their jobs.  The ones that don't become unemployed.  To become an expert at this process you can get stupid certifications like a black belt.   And before anyone asks, I figured out the game early enough.  

 

 

Remember the Bobs?

office-space-the-bobs.png

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5 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

It's like the bat signal for layoffs at your company, lol.  It's typically preceded by a "consulting" firm, ala Chubb, or Mckinsey and the like, coming in and timing people at their jobs, handing out surveys, etc., looking for fat to trim.  They then make crazy pitches to your management to replace business knowledge and SME with scripts and process flows, and then suggest mass layoffs.  The ones that adapt and know how to play the game keep their jobs.  The ones that don't become unemployed.  To become an expert at this process you can get stupid certifications like a black belt.   And before anyone asks, I figured out the game early enough.  

 

 

Remember the Bobs?

office-space-the-bobs.png

 

The "Bobs" LOL.

Many companies hire "Six Sigma" consulting firms and a lot experience exactly what you have said.

 

Years ago my old company hired 2 Master Black Belts and the biggest gains were training SME's (Subject Matter Experts for those not knowing

the acronym) as Green Belts (myself included).  It worked quite well.

 

Later when our company was bought out by a Global Corporation they used "Six Sigma Black Belt" projects exactly how you described and it

practically ruined our company.

 

It's a tool and like any tool, it can be used correctly or incorrectly.

 

Loved the line from Office Space by one of the Bobs, "Samir Naga.... naga...................... not gonna work here anyone"!

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MLB made the switch a while ago, and now most teams are run by really bright guys who do not come from a traditional baseball background.


The NFL, unsurprisingly, is far behind.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

MLB made the switch a while ago, and now most teams are run by really bright guys who do not come from a traditional baseball background.


 The NFL, unsurprisingly, is far behind.

 

 

far behind what? there still is no proof that this approach works better than any other. 

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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The "Bobs" LOL.

Many companies hire "Six Sigma" consulting firms and a lot experience exactly what you have said.

 

Years ago my old company hired 2 Master Black Belts and the biggest gains were training SME's (Subject Matter Experts for those not knowing

the acronym) as Green Belts (myself included).  It worked quite well.

 

Later when our company was bought out by a Global Corporation they used "Six Sigma Black Belt" projects exactly how you described and it

practically ruined our company.

 

It's a tool and like any tool, it can be used correctly or incorrectly.

 

Loved the line from Office Space by one of the Bobs, "Samir Naga.... naga...................... not gonna work here anyone"!

 

Ah. I am so glad I've never had a "real" job in an office. 

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1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

 

You cant be this stupid. You’d forget to breath. 

 

 

Good stuff. 

 

Anyway, let's see how well the Cavs do when their sole analytic data point walks out the door next month.

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7 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I don’t think the assessment is very current. 

 

Buffalo rumblings treid to build build a bridge from the past to the present based on one event contrary to what analytics dictact. But that one event was during a prolonged snow squall....

 

im calling this labeling contrived and irrelevant at best 

 

Somewhere I read that some franchises can be squirrelly about how robust their analytics departments are and how they're used.   They'd rather not let other clubs know what they're doing.  


Just because Beane and McD aren't talking about the analytics stuff doesn't mean they're not using it.  

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As long as that "One Toe" is a "Camel Toe"  I am all in on analytics ;) 

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I truely can't stand those people obsessed with supposed "analytics", i remember 6 or 7 years ago when it was all they talked about on wgr, all I can think of is Mike Schoppe.

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Some teams have used analytics to study the productivity of past draft picks versus their draft position.  They used the data to  create their own trade value charts.  

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19 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

What the heck is a “Lean Six Sigma Master Black?”  😎

 

A very valued person, especially in manufacturing settings.

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Analytics ruined baseball.  Bunting?  Nope.  Hit and run?  Nope.  Stealing bases?  Nope.  Not statistically sound.  Not even if you need one run to tie or win the game in the 9th inning.  

 

Not so for football.  The one area where analytics would make a difference is on 4th down decisions, where the vast majority of NFL coaches continue to punt on 4th down when going for it would increase the chances of winning.  If the NFL doesn't even accept that demonstrably correct analytic, why would they accept more complicated analytics?  I disagree with Schopp on the time of day, but on 4th down decision making, he is absolutely correct.

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2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

A very valued person, especially in manufacturing settings.

 

Well then, we certainly need him for football talk. 

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Posted (edited)

Nice to see you’re back with another high quality piece of work to validate your confirmation bias. Just to make sure I have this straight, an article published two head coaches, one general manager, and one analytics guy ago is representative of the current staff because of this gem:

 

“I met with the then head of Bills analytics a few years ago,” says Buffalo Rumblings editor Dan Lavoie. “The team was much more interested in how data could drive fan interaction than game decision-making. Of course, we’ve moved two head coaches and a GM since then, but I’d be surprised if something changed.

 

...and because of an article rambling on about the snow game without offering anything aside from the author’s opinion to back it up. 

 

Sound reasoning. 

Edited by transient

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