ESPN's Matt Bowen Went Back College Film to Assess Each 1st Round QB

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Game that shows his ceiling: The first half of Wyoming's bowl game win over Central Michigan showcased why Allen was the No. 7 overall pick and reminded us that he has the highest upside of any quarterback in the 2018 class. I'm talking about the natural tools at the position. Just look at the skinny post Allen throws in a tight window down the field (check out the video clip below). Play-pass with a quick climb in the pocket, and then deliver an absolute laser for the score. That's a throw only Allen could make when compared to the rest of these quarterbacks. He also showcased his athleticism on an ad-libbed red zone touchdown pass and followed that with a perfect deep ball throw for another score. Take a shot, and let it go. With a 6-foot-5, 237-pound frame, mobility and tremendous arm strength that absolutely pops on the tape, Allen has an enormous ceiling as a pro -- if he keeps developing.

 

Allen Shows Off NFL Arm with TD Strike (0:40)
Wyoming's Josh Allen drops back and zips a strike to Jared Scott for the 23-yard score 

 

Game that shows his floor: Allen's two games last season against Power 5 competition -- at Iowa and vs. Oregon -- stand out because of the negative habits that appear on tape. In both of those losses, Allen struggled to find any consistency, and his accuracy suffered. He also needs to work on developing a changeup to put more touch on throws to complement that elite velocity in his arm. This is a raw player who has a tendency to sail the ball and miss with poor placement due to his footwork. That will lead to interceptions in the NFL. As I said above, the natural tools are there. In games against tougher competition, however, Allen created more question as to when or if he will reach his ceiling.

 

Allen's best trait: Arm talent. There's no question here. That strong arm will allow Allen to challenge NFL defenses in the vertical passing game and attack tighter windows on intermediate throws. Plus, playing in Buffalo, Allen has the juice to cut the ball through the wind, rain, sleet, ice and snow coming off Lake Erie.

 

Where Allen must improve: Consistent accuracy. Allen has to take major steps in his accuracy to be a successful pro quarterback. It's that simple. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes in 2017, which was only a slight increase from 56 percent in 2016. There's some work to do for Allen and the Bills here.

 

Tip for Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll: When Allen's feet are set, he can flat-out rip the ball and put it on target. Too often, though, Allen leans on his arm talent. Daboll and his staff must focus on Allen's footwork for the rookie to progress as a more accurate thrower in a system that can be catered to maximize his ability. Mix in pro and spread concepts that showcase Allen's movement skills, along with his ability to expose the top of secondaries off play-action.

Edited May 26, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[NoSaint]

Is this insider to view the whole article? If so, cliffnotes?

[NextYear'sTheOne]

Can't read Allen's piece. Can an "insider" copy and paste please?

[Buffalo716]

Going back to review Players after the draft is useless, especially if he has done a thorough job before 

 

you really shouldn’t learn much  anything new and if you come out with a vastly different opinion you are probably a bad talent evaluator 

[Golden Goat]

7 minutes ago, NextYear'sTheOne said:

Can't read Allen's piece. Can an "insider" copy and paste please?

 

I can't swear to it, but I believe that's against the Eula of this board. Perhaps a mod can clarify.

[BrotherChazz]

Game that shows his ceiling: The first half of Wyoming's bowl game win over Central Michigan showcased why Allen was the No. 7 overall pick and reminded us that he has the highest upside of any quarterback in the 2018 class. I'm talking about the natural tools at the position. Just look at the skinny post Allen throws in a tight window down the field (check out the video clip below). Play-pass with a quick climb in the pocket, and then deliver an absolute laser for the score. That's a throw only Allen could make when compared to the rest of these quarterbacks. He also showcased his athleticism on an ad-libbed red zone touchdown pass and followed that with a perfect deep ball throw for another score. Take a shot, and let it go. With a 6-foot-5, 237-pound frame, mobility and tremendous arm strength that absolutely pops on the tape, Allen has an enormous ceiling as a pro -- if he keeps developing.

 

play

0:40

Allen shows off NFL arm with TD strike

Wyoming's Josh Allen drops back and zips a strike to Jared Scott for the 23-yard score to go up 7-0.

Game that shows his floor: Allen's two games last season against Power 5 competition -- at Iowa and vs. Oregon -- stand out because of the negative habits that appear on tape. In both of those losses, Allen struggled to find any consistency, and his accuracy suffered. He also needs to work on developing a changeup to put more touch on throws to complement that elite velocity in his arm. This is a raw player who has a tendency to sail the ball and miss with poor placement due to his footwork. That will lead to interceptions in the NFL. As I said above, the natural tools are there. In games against tougher competition, however, Allen created more question as to when or if he will reach his ceiling.

Allen's best trait: Arm talent. There's no question here. That strong arm will allow Allen to challenge NFL defenses in the vertical passing game and attack tighter windows on intermediate throws. Plus, playing in Buffalo, Allen has the juice to cut the ball through the wind, rain, sleet, ice and snow coming off Lake Erie.

Where Allen must improve: Consistent accuracy. Allen has to take major steps in his accuracy to be a successful pro quarterback. It's that simple. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes in 2017, which was only a slight increase from 56 percent in 2016. There's some work to do for Allen and the Bills here.

Tip for Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll: When Allen's feet are set, he can flat-out rip the ball and put it on target. Too often, though, Allen leans on his arm talent. Daboll and his staff must focus on Allen's footwork for the rookie to progress as a more accurate thrower in a system that can be catered to maximize his ability. Mix in pro and spread concepts that showcase Allen's movement skills, along with his ability to expose the top of secondaries off play-action.

[CuddyDark]

 

Quote

Mix in pro and spread concepts that showcase Allen's movement skills, along with his ability to expose the top of secondaries off play-action.

 

Yeah do this. Add several QB run concepts to the spread. Use him like Cam for his first couple of years while developing him into hopefully Big Ben.

[NextYear'sTheOne]

25 minutes ago, Golden Goat said:

 

I can't swear to it, but I believe that's against the Eula of this board. Perhaps a mod can clarify.

Gotchya. Thanks

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

11 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

 

 

Yeah do this. Add several QB run concepts to the spread. Use him like Cam for his first couple of years while developing him into hopefully Big Ben.

 

I’d be reluctant to even use Cam like Cam. You hate to risk your QB taking the punishment 

[BrotherChazz]

32 minutes ago, Golden Goat said:

 

I can't swear to it, but I believe that's against the Eula of this board. Perhaps a mod can clarify.

 

If thats the case, I'll remove what I posted. I thought it was that you couldn't post an article in its entirety. 

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, BrotherChazz said:

 

If thats the case, I'll remove what I posted. I thought it was that you couldn't post an article in its entirety. 

 

I think you're okay with just the Allen content that was posted. 

[Guest Mike147]

15 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

 

 

Yeah do this. Add several QB run concepts to the spread. Use him like Cam for his first couple of years while developing him into hopefully Big Ben.

 

The best place to learn is on an NFL field playing against a defense trying to beat you. Cam Newton had to learn on the job and actually threw for the most yards of his career in his rookie season (he's never thrown for 4,000 passing yards since), but he does still have questionable accuracy and mechanics because he still completes less than 60% of his passes, regularly overthrows his receivers, and has not really become a prolific passing quarterback. What boosts Cam Newton is the fact he runs and adds half a dozen or so rushing TDs to his count. When teams manage to restrict the run, Cam doesn't always beat them with his arm, and while I would have no issue with Allen mirroring Cam Newton's career, there is an argument that sitting him year one would be beneficial in order to help correct and improve his mechanics and ability to read defenses. 

 

I wouldn't surprised to see Allen start early in his career and copying the Cam model would be sensible. 

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Mike147 said:

 

The best place to learn is on an NFL field playing against a defense trying to beat you. Cam Newton had to learn on the job and actually threw for the most yards of his career in his rookie season (he's never thrown for 4,000 passing yards since), but he does still have questionable accuracy and mechanics because he still completes less than 60% of his passes, regularly overthrows his receivers, and has not really become a prolific passing quarterback. What boosts Cam Newton is the fact he runs and adds half a dozen or so rushing TDs to his count. When teams manage to restrict the run, Cam doesn't always beat them with his arm, and while I would have no issue with Allen mirroring Cam Newton's career, there is an argument that sitting him year one would be beneficial in order to help correct and improve his mechanics and ability to read defenses. 

 

I wouldn't surprised to see Allen start early in his career and copying the Cam model would be sensible. 

 

Actually, thats not true.  The absolute worst way ever to develop a QB is to start him BEFORE he is READY.  Some QB's get there faster where they are ready enough to start early.  They are the exception, not the standard.  Rushing a guy out there too quickly is foolish.  Now if Allen legit WINS the job and proves he's ready to start week 1, then great, go for it.  But you don't throw a kid out there who isn't ready for it yet just because you want him to get experience on the field faster.  

[White Linen]

48 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Actually, thats not true.  The absolute worst way ever to develop a QB is to start him BEFORE he is READY.  Some QB's get there faster where they are ready enough to start early.  They are the exception, not the standard.  Rushing a guy out there too quickly is foolish.  Now if Allen legit WINS the job and proves he's ready to start week 1, then great, go for it.  But you don't throw a kid out there who isn't ready for it yet just because you want him to get experience on the field faster.  

 

I posted this in another thread and I think it applies to your post.  I largely agree with what you're saying. 

 

"I think it depends on the circumstances.  There's 4 things I want before letting a young QB play - if I can dictate it.  I want to reasonably be able to protect him,  have at least a good defense, have an excellent running game and have at least 2 receivers that are real good at being safety valves (could be a RB, TE or WR).   If I have a reasonable answer at those 4 things,  I'm willing to let him play to learn.  

 

I can build on giving him other things to go next level by surrounding him with play making WR's / or maybe not resigning that expensive offensive lineman / or suffering in the run game a little - after he's got his base playing in the NFL."

[Guest Mike147]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Actually, thats not true.  The absolute worst way ever to develop a QB is to start him BEFORE he is READY.  Some QB's get there faster where they are ready enough to start early.  They are the exception, not the standard.  Rushing a guy out there too quickly is foolish.  Now if Allen legit WINS the job and proves he's ready to start week 1, then great, go for it.  But you don't throw a kid out there who isn't ready for it yet just because you want him to get experience on the field faster.  

 

I can see the benefit of sitting a quarterback and letting him learn, but in Josh Allen's case, is sitting him really going to be beneficial?

 

I'm not convinced. How many prospects overcome accuracy issues in college in the pros? Not many. Some of the flaws with Allen are fixable with good coaching but I don't see Josh Allen becoming a mid-60 percent pass completion guy at the next level. I think he is going to hover in the late-50 percent range. Now that is not a nail in the coffin for him because if the team schemes to his strengths, boasts a strong run game and strong defense, we should be able to win games with Josh Allen at quarterback. But I don't think sitting him is going to suddenly make him an accurate quarterback that is going to complete a high percentage of his passes. At this stage and we aren't going to change Josh Allen. He's a gunslinger quarterback with enough athleticism and size to run like Cam Newton. I would start the guy because I don't see sitting him being beneficial because he's not going to change into something different. Let the QB battle run it's course and if he wins scheme to the guy's strengths and let him go out there and lead this team with that competitive nature he brings to the table.

[eball]

1 hour ago, BrotherChazz said:

 

Where Allen must improve: Consistent accuracy. Allen has to take major steps in his accuracy to be a successful pro quarterback. It's that simple. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes in 2017, which was only a slight increase from 56 percent in 2016. There's some work to do for Allen and the Bills here.

 

 

I'm sorry, he just lost all credibility by -- AGAIN -- going back to completion percentage as the best indicator of accuracy.  Bye Felicia.

[JohnnyK]

54 minutes ago, Mike147 said:

 

I can see the benefit of sitting a quarterback and letting him learn, but in Josh Allen's case, is sitting him really going to be beneficial?

 

I'm not convinced. How many prospects overcome accuracy issues in college in the pros? Not many. Some of the flaws with Allen are fixable with good coaching but I don't see Josh Allen becoming a mid-60 percent pass completion guy at the next level. I think he is going to hover in the late-50 percent range. Now that is not a nail in the coffin for him because if the team schemes to his strengths, boasts a strong run game and strong defense, we should be able to win games with Josh Allen at quarterback. But I don't think sitting him is going to suddenly make him an accurate quarterback that is going to complete a high percentage of his passes. At this stage and we aren't going to change Josh Allen. He's a gunslinger quarterback with enough athleticism and size to run like Cam Newton. I would start the guy because I don't see sitting him being beneficial because he's not going to change into something different. Let the QB battle run it's course and if he wins scheme to the guy's strengths and let him go out there and lead this team with that competitive nature he brings to the table.

And build an offence around what he does well..not try to make him him something he is not!

IMO: play action passes (with deep, mid, and short simple reads)

 

[CuddyDark]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I’d be reluctant to even use Cam like Cam. You hate to risk your QB taking the punishment 

He's big enough to take the punishment while he's a kid. Eagles used Foles that way and it worked well. Allen is a copy of those players. I think it would help his career early. Gives him a half field reads. Takes players from the middle of the field. Even the Steelers did some of that half field stuff with Ben.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Mike147 said:

 

I can see the benefit of sitting a quarterback and letting him learn, but in Josh Allen's case, is sitting him really going to be beneficial?

 

I'm not convinced. How many prospects overcome accuracy issues in college in the pros? Not many. Some of the flaws with Allen are fixable with good coaching but I don't see Josh Allen becoming a mid-60 percent pass completion guy at the next level. I think he is going to hover in the late-50 percent range. Now that is not a nail in the coffin for him because if the team schemes to his strengths, boasts a strong run game and strong defense, we should be able to win games with Josh Allen at quarterback. But I don't think sitting him is going to suddenly make him an accurate quarterback that is going to complete a high percentage of his passes. At this stage and we aren't going to change Josh Allen. He's a gunslinger quarterback with enough athleticism and size to run like Cam Newton. I would start the guy because I don't see sitting him being beneficial because he's not going to change into something different. Let the QB battle run it's course and if he wins scheme to the guy's strengths and let him go out there and lead this team with that competitive nature he brings to the table.

 

You seem to attribute him being ready to start or not around accuracy.  That is not close though to what determines his readiness.  Grasping the offense, timing with his receivers, reading defenses, getting his mechanics down, getting through his progressions, etc etc.  I also don't agree with your assessment on his ceiling of accuracy.  Bottom line is, let the kid compete to start, but ONLY put him in there week 1 if he authentically wins the job and is ready to play.  Anything else is just foolish and risking his development.  

Edited May 25, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

 

 

Yeah do this. Add several QB run concepts to the spread. Use him like Cam for his first couple of years while developing him into hopefully Big Ben.

I think you’re underestimating how good Cam was and he flat out dominated the best conference in college football.  I wish Allen was on Cam’s level and didn’t play in the MWC.  Cam was really really good.