Josh Allen: Analytics

[Kemp]

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Define "a ton".

 

A large number or amount.

 

Which NFL QBs are decidedly more accurate than they were in college?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Commonsense said:

Comparing a 5 star High School recruit with a JUCO kid that ended up playing at Wyoming. Hackenburg nuked his draft suit with his poor play. Allen improved his stock with a strong Senior Bowl, good combine showing and displaying improved mechanics. 

 

You have now left the Milky Way.

 

......LMAO!!.......chasing down Musk's Tesla on its way to Mars......thinkin' maybe a first name change from WAYNE to BENEDICT is better...NEVER has anything good to offer about BFLO.....some things will never change...SMH........

[billsfan89]

21 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Newton gets the edge, but the difference is not quite as vast as you make it seem.

 

 

Physically they are a bit far apart from each other but it isn't massive (one has a bigger arm and better intangibles the other is faster and has fewer issues with accuracy.) But Cam's college resume is so far ahead of Allen's. Cam's senior year was not only beastly, but it was against the best competition college football could offer. Allen was a pretty good but not dominant QB in a so so conference. 

 

People projected Allen as a top 10 or even top 5 pick because of his insane arm, physical profile (big dude and big hands) and for the fact that Allen is by all accounts has the intangibles. A lot of scouts also weren't scared off by his low completion percentage because of context (Type of offense he played in was more downfield throwing, his WR's weren't the best, and his O-line play was poor.) 

 

But Allen is by far the more raw prospect than Cam was. Allen is the NBA prospect you draft because of how athletic he is despite not having dominance at the college level while Cam is the type of prospect you draft because he was athletic and dominant at the college level. Cam's last college seasons was one of the best of all time and he had the insane physical tools. Watching Cam coming out of college that year he looked like a man among boys and his professional success proved that. 

Edited May 4, 2018 by billsfan89

[Trogdor]

16 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Newton gets the edge, but the difference is not quite as vast as you make it seem.

The problem is that you are using combine stats as evidence. Every single year there are combine MVPs that make themselves looks much better than their actual game play. Newton had a 66.1% cmp 10.2 y/a 30td and 7int for a 182 rating. Add to that another 20 tds and 1500 yards rushing. That's against the best defenses in the country. Even if you want to go with Wentz the numbers aren't even close. Josh Allen may end up being very good, but lets not start making these crazy comparisons with combine numbers. This board has devolved into reposting highlight videos to try and prove how good someone is. Let's just wait and see what happens and not put some crazy expectations on a QB who needs a lot of work and polish. 

[billsfan89]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um RGIII 4.41, not 4.1. 

 

I don't think people are saying he's a physical freak like Cam or had the same college stats against the same level of competition as Cam (there's a reason Cam was pretty much the consensus #1 overall pick).

 

I think the comparisons arise because people see the ability to run some similar offensive elements with Allen as with Newton.

 

 

 

You are correct 4.41 for RGIII. I think the comparisons to Cam are just a bit of a stretch and are only made because of McD's connections to the team Cam Newton plays for. Allen and Newton are both big dudes with rocket arms but beyond that they aren't the most comparable players. 

[Wayne Arnold]

22 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

A large number or amount.

 

Which NFL QBs are decidedly more accurate than they were in college?

 

Probably none. Good thing Allen doesn't need to become "decidedly more accurate."

[Trogdor]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

You are correct 4.41 for RGIII. I think the comparisons to Cam are just a bit of a stretch and are only made because of McD's connections to the team Cam Newton plays for. Allen and Newton are both big dudes with rocket arms but beyond that they aren't the most comparable players. 

Using McD, who is a defensive coach, as a link is crazy too. I'm not trying to shoot the messenger because I've seen this too, but Daboll has nothing to do with Cam. We have no idea what type of offense he will run or if he has the ability to modify his system to his players. It's far too soon for a lot of this. 

[DCOrange]

6 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

You are correct 4.41 for RGIII. I think the comparisons to Cam are just a bit of a stretch and are only made because of McD's connections to the team Cam Newton plays for. Allen and Newton are both big dudes with rocket arms but beyond that they aren't the most comparable players. 

Perhaps around here, but Allen has been compared to Cam for two years now. It didn’t begin with any connection to McBeane. 

Edited May 4, 2018 by DCOrange

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

The problem is that you are using combine stats as evidence. Every single year there are combine MVPs that make themselves looks much better than their actual game play. Newton had a 66.1% cmp 10.2 y/a 30td and 7int for a 182 rating. Add to that another 20 tds and 1500 yards rushing. That's against the best defenses in the country. Even if you want to go with Wentz the numbers aren't even close. Josh Allen may end up being very good, but lets not start making these crazy comparisons with combine numbers. This board has devolved into reposting highlight videos to try and prove how good someone is. Let's just wait and see what happens and not put some crazy expectations on a QB who needs a lot of work and polish. 

 

Ugh - stats from college.

 

Granted, Newton had one of the greatest, most celebrated college football seasons for a quarterback of all-time. But he also got to work with one of the greatest offensive football minds (Malzahn) at Auburn. Very creative, innovative offense that fit his skills perfectly. And he had SEC talent around him.

 

Allen worked in an outdated offense with players who were barely recruited out of high school.

 

Who's posting highlight videos? Not me.

[billsfan89]

Just now, DCOrange said:

Perhaps around here, but Allen has been compared to Cam for two years now.

 

It could be possible that's a comparison that a lot of people are making but I just don't see it. Other than their size and stature combined with a big arm they aren't that alike. Big Ben is a better comparison for Allen in my opinion. 

[Kemp]

12 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Probably none. Good thing Allen doesn't need to become "decidedly more accurate."

 

 

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

It could be possible that's a comparison that a lot of people are making but I just don't see it. Other than their size and stature combined with a big arm they aren't that alike. Big Ben is a better comparison for Allen in my opinion. 

 

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. Maybe I’m too stuck on what Roethlisberger looks like now versus how he was a team Miami OH but I think the way Allen moves, the ability to make throws without his feet being clean, the way he scrambles around, the way he attacks vertically, is all much more similar to Cam than Ben IMO.

[Trogdor]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Ugh - stats from college.

 

Granted, Newton had one of the greatest, most celebrated college football seasons for a quarterback of all-time. But he also got to work with one of the greatest offensive football minds (Malzahn) at Auburn. Very creative, innovative offense that fit his skills perfectly. And he had SEC talent around him.

 

Allen worked in an outdated offense with players who were barely recruited out of high school.

 

Who's posting highlight videos? Not me.

Game play as a comparison makes a lot more sense than hypothetical ones from workouts. Is SEC talent vs SEC talent not the same as MWC talent vs MWC talent? People keep pointing to how bad the players around him were, but it's not like he was playing future NFL defenses. I'd also like to point out that Allen's receivers only dropped 4.8% of their passes and weren't as bad as some people make them out to be. At least two of them ended up being NFL worthy. Again, he might end up being good, but he has done nothing at the college level that would put him on the same level as people they are comparing him to. 

[Wayne Arnold]

9 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

 

 

All the evidence we need!

[Kemp]

10 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

All the evidence we need!

 

Josh Allen was the 73rd ranked passer in college, last season.

 

Edited May 4, 2018 by Kemp

[Wayne Arnold]

17 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Game play as a comparison makes a lot more sense than hypothetical ones from workouts. Is SEC talent vs SEC talent not the same as MWC talent vs MWC talent? People keep pointing to how bad the players around him were, but it's not like he was playing future NFL defenses. I'd also like to point out that Allen's receivers only dropped 4.8% of their passes and weren't as bad as some people make them out to be. At least two of them ended up being NFL worthy. Again, he might end up being good, but he has done nothing at the college level that would put him on the same level as people they are comparing him to. 

 

The comparison was about pure physical features.

 

As for the game play comparison, it's not nearly as simple as SEC talent vs. SEC talent = MWC talent vs. MWC talent, considering Allen was working with mostly freshmen in 2017.

 

As for Allen's receivers, I highly suggest you watch some of those 2017 games on Youtube, especially early on in the season. His receivers truly could not get open. Allen had to attempt passes to freshmen of limited talent who were blanketed by cornerbacks. And the OC had no idea how to scheme them open. It's criminal.

 

That said, Allen performed extremely well in his first season in 2016 and despite having to orchestrate a terrible offense in 2017 was still able to lead Wyoming to a combined 11-3 record (.786 winning percentage) against MWC teams. The four years before Allen arrived? 2-6, 2-6, 3-5, 3-5 (.313 combined winning percentage).

 

4 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Josh Allen was the 73rd ranked passer in college, last season.

 

 

Who needs context? The stats are all you need!!

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2018 by Wayne Arnold

[Kemp]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

The comparison was about pure physical features.

 

As for the game play comparison, it's not nearly as simple as SEC talent vs. SEC talent = MWC talent vs. MWC talent, considering Allen was working with mostly freshmen in 2017.

 

As for Allen's receivers, I highly suggest you watch some of those 2017 games on Youtube, especially early on in the season. His receivers truly could not get open. Allen had to attempt passes to freshmen of limited talent who were blanketed by cornerbacks. And the OC had no idea how to scheme them open. It's criminal.

 

That said, Allen performed extremely well in his first season in 2016 and despite having to orchestrate a terrible offense in 2017 was still able to lead Wyoming to a combined 11-3 record (.786 winning percentage) against MWC teams. The four years before Allen arrived? 2-6, 2-6, 3-5, 3-5 (.313 combined winning percentage).

 

 

Who needs context? The stats are all you need!!

 

 

 

 

Context must mean that you don't like bad results, so let's look for other reasons for failure.

 

His stats are horrific.

 

Those who think he will be a good NFL QB believe so because he can throw it through a brick wall and because of his physique. Is there another reason?

 

He had the same arm and physique in college. You might turn out to be right, but I like my reasons for success/failure better than yours.

 

Hopefully, you're right.

[HappyDays]

48 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

I'd also like to point out that Allen's receivers only dropped 4.8% of their passes and weren't as bad as some people make them out to be.

 

One thing I learned when I dove into his film is that drops were NOT the problem with his surrounding talent. The problem was receivers not getting open. He had a ton of tight window throws. A bunch of the completions he had on deep boundary throws were only caught because of perfect velocity and ball placement. A very small percentage of his TDs came on YAC. He was the only bright spot on offense in 2017.

[Wayne Arnold]

18 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Context must mean that you don't like bad results, so let's look for other reasons for failure.

 

His stats are horrific.

 

Those who think he will be a good NFL QB believe so because he can throw it through a brick wall and because of his physique. Is there another reason?

 

He had the same arm and physique in college. You might turn out to be right, but I like my reasons for success/failure better than yours.

 

Hopefully, you're right.

 

Accomplishments not seen in the football program in 20 years is far from "failure".

 

Context in this case is the entirely different circumstances from which those statistics are generated. Systems, coaches, teammates, etc.

[BarleyNY]

On 5/3/2018 at 2:24 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Josh Allen is big. Carson Wentz is big. Josh Allen can throw far. Wentz can throw far.  Allen went to an obscure College in a northern state where not many people live. Wentz went to an obscure college in a northern state where not many people live. 

 

Thus, Allen = Wentz. Analytics

 

Actually Sashi Brown wanted to draft Wentz but coach Hue Jackson didn’t want him.