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Convince Me: Why Jackson or Rudolph Should be the Pick at 12 (if no trade up occurs)


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21 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

But, how many running QBs have led their teams to Super Bowl wins in the modern era?

 

Being too good at running isn't what has prevented "running QBs" from winning a Super Bowl. Not being a good enough passer or simply not having the fortune of being on a great team is. Guys like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Mike Vick, John Elway, Steve Young, etc. have proven that you can win with a "running QB". Only one team gets to win the Super Bowl each year and in a league with like 5 guys that you might consider to be "running QBs", the odds simply aren't in your favor in any given year that a "running QB" will win the Super Bowl.

 

But if Lamar becomes an average passer, your team will probably be a contender as long as the team around him isn't awful and he'll probably be an MVP candidate. I'd be okay with that.

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Just now, aristocrat said:

 

i agree. it's funny. russell wilson would not have been successful imo on any other team than the seahawks. he has developed into a great qb. they had almost no offense the first few years with him. throwing for just over 3000 yards, running a lot but that defense allowed 14 points.   i hope we get the guy who will develop and we can put the team around him to develop.  That's why I am so hesitant to give up so many picks for a guy cause you can end up turning him into david carr.  the qbs needs to come into the right situation. 

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

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1 minute ago, DFT said:

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

 

That's why I don't want them to package a ton of picks to move up. 

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22 minutes ago, Doc said:

They shouldn't.  Either trade up for who you want or wait until another draft to draft a QB.

  Take White in the 2nd and temper the expectations.  We have close to 100M next year and could trade picks to a team facing a salary issue and needing to unload a QB or would be willing to trade a QB.  Far better value in players we can use such as with Vea or R Smith.  Don't reach with your 12 or 22.

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5 minutes ago, DFT said:

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

  You can't worry about a few loud posters on a message board that is not officially tied to the team.  Beane should follow his board even if it means no trade up and no QB at 12.

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5 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Take White in the 2nd and temper the expectations.  We have close to 100M next year and could trade picks to a team facing a salary issue and needing to unload a QB or would be willing to trade a QB.  Far better value in players we can use such as with Vea or R Smith.  Don't reach with your 12 or 22.

And what has Mike White done to deserve 2nd round consideration? 

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4 minutes ago, DFT said:

The funny thing  about this draft is how heavy it is with potential day one starters. There are something like 70 projected potential day one starters estimated in this draft. It is a total crapshoot to try and gauge that before they play, but this draft is loaded. I think there are so many teams out there that are excited that this draft is so QB heavy, because it means other fantastic players are going to fall to them. I love Josh Rosen as a fit for Buffalo, but if the brass thinks the better move is to stay at 12  and see who falls, while keeping all of their picks for what is a truly, ridiculously talented draft, then I see the intelligence in that. It will not be popular in Buffalo, but it could be a strong move. 

 

i think we've gone off thread topic but i think the jets have already screwed up their trade. they ignored the offensive line. released wilkerson for a stupid reason. signed teddy b. they don't seem to have a plan and are winging it a bit.  with wilkerson they have a really nice d line. without him you just have to stop williams. much easier. they could have set the rookie up but they took a step back imo

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35 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Interested in hearing your arguments as to why you feel that Beane should take either Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 12, in the event that the Browns and Giants are unwilling to trade out of their spots.

 

Haven't read any responses yet...

 

1. We get to keep all nine of our draft picks - six in the first three rounds will be fun to look forward to and watch in training camp.

 

2. Rudolph is at-worst the second most accurate passer in this draft (arm strength is overrated as long as you have the requisite amount of it) and appears to be very sharp when talking X's and O's. He's also 6-5 with good speed and has used RPO's in college.

 

3. Lamar Jackson is a very young freak of nature who has improved dramatically as a passer over the last few years. He could have the highest ceiling among all of the quarterbacks and may turn into a superstar. 

 

4. The NFL's gradual offensive revolution combined with Daboll's year of college playcalling experience should allow for an easier transition for a QB that either ran few NFL concepts in college (Rudolph) or may not have the typical pro style skill set (Jackson). Look at how successful Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson have been.

 

At this point I think it's a no-brainer to stay at 12 and choose the best remaining QB on the board - which, in the long-run, may be the best quarterback in the draft.

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They should not be!! I can't think of ANY reason  for  them not to move  up to get Rosen. If we  get the 2nd pick and  Rosen or Darnold  are there to pick, that's what we absolutely need to do. Yes, its costly, and draft picks could help to, but get the QB while you can, and thats not something we have to worry about for a long time.

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40 minutes ago, Rad Likes The Bills said:

what if they want Jackson... or Rudolph for that matter?

 

and there is nothing in this thread that can be said that hasn't been harped and rehashed over and over again...

Take Rudolph at 22 or trade back into first to get him late. 

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2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Haven't read any responses yet...

 

1. We get to keep all nine of our draft picks - six in the first three rounds will be fun to look forward to and watch in training camp.

 

2. Rudolph is at-worst the second most accurate passer in this draft (arm strength is overrated as long as you have the requisite amount of it) and appears to be very sharp when talking X's and O's. He's also 6-5 with good speed and has used RPO's in college.

 

3. Lamar Jackson is a very young freak of nature who has improved dramatically as a passer over the last few years. He could have the highest ceiling among all of the quarterbacks and may turn into a superstar. 

 

4. The NFL's gradual offensive revolution combined with Daboll's year of college playcalling experience should allow for an easier transition for a QB that either ran few NFL concepts in college (Rudolph) or may not have the typical pro style skill set (Jackson). Look at how successful Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson have been.

 

At this point I think it's a no-brainer to stay at 12 and choose the best remaining QB on the board - which, in the long-run, may be the best quarterback in the draft.

Rudolph played in a very, very, VERY weak conference, from a defensive standpoint, and was used to dominating against horrible defensive backs.  As a result, his receivers (e.g. James Washington) were able to freely run wide open most of the time.  He also comes from a college system that has NEVER produced a franchise NFL QB.

If Jackson "improved dramatically as a passer" then why does have a sub 60% completion percentage?

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1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Rudolph played in a very, very, VERY weak conference, from a defensive standpoint, and was used to dominating against horrible defensive backs.  As a result, his receivers (e.g. James Washington) were able to freely run wide open most of the time.  He also comes from a college system that has NEVER produced a franchise NFL QB.

If Jackson "improved dramatically as a passer" then why does have a sub 60% completion percentage?

Agree 100%!  Jackson improved as a player from his Boca days, but he is still vastly underdeveloped as a passer.   Rudolph....   I just hope I’m wrong about him.  I do.   I don’t wish for any prospect to fail. He’s got skills, but I think those skills were amplified by his team, the conference, and the offense. Again, I am wrong more than I am ever right. 

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Rudolph played in a very, very, VERY weak conference, from a defensive standpoint, and was used to dominating against horrible defensive backs.  As a result, his receivers (e.g. James Washington) were able to freely run wide open most of the time.  He also comes from a college system that has NEVER produced a franchise NFL QB.

If Jackson "improved dramatically as a passer" then why does have a sub 60% completion percentage?

 

take a look at his wide receiver drops. adjusted his comp percent is 64 percent. 38 drops.  

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17 minutes ago, chris heff said:

John Elway had 33 rushing TDS and rushed for 3400 yards.

Defenses are a lot faster and more complex today and modern rules made it much more advantageous to be a pocket passer. Ever running QB is forced to try and be a pocket passer as defenses always catch up after a year or so of tape.

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