Echo Chamber Thinking, and Why We Do Not Know What the Bills' FO has Planned

[ROCBillsBeliever]

Rather than creating the same thread, here's something to consider, while everyone on this board almost categorically has decided Beane needs to be lynched for "letting" the Jets "jump us" for the 3rd pick. 

 

It's a little concept called Echo Chamber Thought. Give this a quick listen/read:

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/07/24/486941582/the-reason-your-feed-became-an-echo-chamber-and-what-to-do-about-it

 

With that as philosophical context, please read the following article from Walterfootball.com (decidedly NOT a Bills-specific media source):

 

http://walterfootball.com/nfltrades.php

 

All I'm saying is this, folks: at the moment I click "Submit Topic" on this thread, there are 1,021 (and counting) replies to the post entitled "Jets just traded with Colts for #3 pick in first round ". OTHER, well-informed sources (Walter Football just being one) are not saying the Bills have ruined their hopes of a future by "letting" the Jets "jump us" in the draft... Keep in mind, they were ahead of us to begin with. Some folks must think 6 comes after 12...

 

We are our own worst nightmare, guys and gals... We DO NOT know what Donald Rumsfeld once coined "the unknown unknowns" about the trade between the Jets and Colts, and the talks our F.O. had with the Colts, Browns, and Giants (not to mention the Broncos at #5). Rumsfeld, for your reference:
 

 

PLEASE stop for a moment, pull your heads out of this echo-chamber we all participate in, and BILLieve that the Bills F.O. is NOT Two Bills Drive, The Stadium Wall, or your specific echo-chamber of hive-mind thought!

 

WE DO NOT KNOW if Beane was bluffing or being honest, when he said (in YESTERDAY's presser) that we may not take a QB in the 1st:

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22793158/buffalo-bills-general-manager-brandon-beane-says-no-guarantee-team-moves-nfl-draft-take-quarterback

 

We've all already forgotten YESTERDAY... Good, dear, sweetbabyjesus, folks... Have faith that our F.O. is working hard to do the best it can, and recognize that we are all only getting up in a tizzy about something we, in our VERY limited and EXCEEDINGLY skewed (by the echo-chamber effect and unknown unknowns) vantage points! 

 

We will be alright, guys and gals. I, for one, have faith in McBeane. 

 

#endrant

 

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by ROCBillsBeliever

[Tyrod's friend]

when it comes to faith, I think it is fair to remember when he addressed the press - abruptly called, I might add - he must have surely known the trade either had happened or was about to.

The greater likelihood is that the presser was called to "get ahead" of the trade. The Indy GM said the trade was for all intents and purposes concluded by Wednesday because he made calls on Monday and Tuesday. We know this surely, because any GM thinking of a trade would have contacted your GM to assess whether or not he would have gone "Ditka".

In retrospect, much of his comments come off like "the dog ate my homework". While Beane & Co. have never lost my faith, there was a considerable amount of manipulation going on there and it sounds like you want to avoid coming to grips with that. 
 

 

[Misterbluesky]

You lost me at Walter Football..worst draft site on the internet...and they prove it year after year.They have no inside sources..much like Great Blue North doesn't.If you think these sites pay people to go out and watch live college games..including doing personal interviews..you're fooling yourself.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Misterbluesky

[RochesterRob]

51 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

Rather than creating the same thread, here's something to consider, while everyone on this board almost categorically has decided Beane needs to be lynched for "letting" the Jets "jump us" for the 3rd pick. 

 

It's a little concept called Echo Chamber Thought. Give this a quick listen/read:

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2016/07/24/486941582/the-reason-your-feed-became-an-echo-chamber-and-what-to-do-about-it

 

With that as philosophical context, please read the following article from Walterfootball.com (decidedly NOT a Bills-specific media source):

 

http://walterfootball.com/nfltrades.php

 

All I'm saying is this, folks: at the moment I click "Submit Topic" on this thread, there are 1,021 (and counting) replies to the post entitled "Jets just traded with Colts for #3 pick in first round ". OTHER, well-informed sources (Walter Football just being one) are not saying the Bills have ruined their hopes of a future by "letting" the Jets "jump us" in the draft... Keep in mind, they were ahead of us to begin with. Some folks must think 6 comes after 12...

 

We are our own worst nightmare, guys and gals... We DO NOT know what Donald Rumsfeld once coined "the unknown unknowns" about the trade between the Jets and Colts, and the talks our F.O. had with the Colts, Browns, and Giants (not to mention the Broncos at #5). Rumsfeld, for your reference:
 

 

PLEASE stop for a moment, pull your heads out of this echo-chamber we all participate in, and BILLieve that the Bills F.O. is NOT Two Bills Drive, The Stadium Wall, or your specific echo-chamber of hive-mind thought!

 

WE DO NOT KNOW if Beane was bluffing or being honest, when he said (in YESTERDAY's presser) that we may not take a QB in the 1st:

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22793158/buffalo-bills-general-manager-brandon-beane-says-no-guarantee-team-moves-nfl-draft-take-quarterback

 

We've all already forgotten YESTERDAY... Good, dear, sweetbabyjesus, folks... Have faith that our F.O. is working hard to do the best it can, and recognize that we are all only getting up in a tizzy about something we, in our VERY limited and EXCEEDINGLY skewed (by the echo-chamber effect and unknown unknowns) vantage points! 

 

We will be alright, guys and gals. I, for one, have faith in McBeane. 

 

#endrant

 

 

  I think most of the torch and pitchfork crowd here would settle for a flogging.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

NFL.com gave my phone an alert with the news while I was at work today. After reading the alert, I immediately had the thought that we might be screwed. This was before I read anything on this forum. So much for your “echo chamber theory”. With that said, I’m not ready to fire Beane ? 

[thurst44]

26 minutes ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

NFL.com gave my phone an alert with the news while I was at work today. After reading the alert, I immediately had the thought that we might be screwed. This was before I read anything on this forum. So much for your “echo chamber theory”. With that said, I’m not ready to fire Beane ? 

Considering the Jets' history of drafting QBs (somehow even waaay worse than ours--we mostly just don't pick them), I'm not overly concerned that we are "screwed" b/c of this move. There's still many, many scenarios where we draft an elite QB. If we don't move up and they pick a QB we don't want, they may have even inadvertently saved us a draft pick or two. 

[PBLESS]

In my mind an overlooked consideration is that NO ONE really has any idea which, IF ANY of the so called big 4 or 5 or even 6 QBs that everyone wants to move up for,  will be a Tom Brady or an EJ Manuel. In fact AJ McCarron might be another Keenum,  Peterman had ONE tough game, [ and quite a bit that went wrong was not even because of NP]. My point is that with QBs no one really knows for a year or two if a team did the right thing by giving away valuable draft capital to get an unknown. Yes, it is true that highly drafted CBs, WRs, and LBs can also fail, but at least a team doesn't have to sell the farm to get them. If you have a team that needs ONLY a QB to get to the big dance, do what you must to get one. The Bills have MANY needs, a very successful draft this year coupled with 100 million in cap space in 2019 would allow us to get a top tier [not necessarily HOF] proven  QB to go with the newly enhanced roster.

I'm not say'n,---- I'm just say'n.

[Green Lightning]

The best prospects will be gone by pick 5. If we can't crack that, we sort through the seconds and hope for the best or trust Beane knows his future is dependent on getting the QB right. 20 years without a franchise QB has taken its toll. All the impressive process we've seen, and it has been Impressive, ultimately will mean little if we can't fix the QB position.

[T-Bomb]

Just now, Green Lightning said:

The best prospects will be gone by pick 5. If we can't crack that, we sort through the seconds and hope for the best or trust Beane knows his future is dependent on getting the QB right. 20 years without a franchise QB has taken its toll. All the impressive process we've seen, and it has been Impressive, ultimately will mean little if we can't fix the QB position.

 

Bingo, he has one chance to keep his job more than 3 years...

[RochesterRob]

15 minutes ago, PBLESS said:

In my mind an overlooked consideration is that NO ONE really has any idea which, IF ANY of the so called big 4 or 5 or even 6 QBs that everyone wants to move up for,  will be a Tom Brady or an EJ Manuel. In fact AJ McCarron might be another Keenum,  Peterman had ONE tough game, [ and quite a bit that went wrong was not even because of NP]. My point is that with QBs no one really knows for a year or two if a team did the right thing by giving away valuable draft capital to get an unknown. Yes, it is true that highly drafted CBs, WRs, and LBs can also fail, but at least a team doesn't have to sell the farm to get them. If you have a team that needs ONLY a QB to get to the big dance, do what you must to get one. The Bills have MANY needs, a very successful draft this year coupled with 100 million in cap space in 2019 would allow us to get a top tier [not necessarily HOF] proven  QB to go with the newly enhanced roster.

I'm not say'n,---- I'm just say'n.

  This is too smart so it will go over some heads and others will criticize it because you went against the herd.  The fact is nobody here knows how any of the QB's will turn out and quite a few times the speed of the NFL is too fast for a college QB to process mentally.  That plagued both Losman and Manuel to various degrees.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

37 minutes ago, PBLESS said:

In my mind an overlooked consideration is that NO ONE really has any idea which, IF ANY of the so called big 4 or 5 or even 6 QBs that everyone wants to move up for,  will be a Tom Brady or an EJ Manuel. In fact AJ McCarron might be another Keenum,  Peterman had ONE tough game, [ and quite a bit that went wrong was not even because of NP]. My point is that with QBs no one really knows for a year or two if a team did the right thing by giving away valuable draft capital to get an unknown. Yes, it is true that highly drafted CBs, WRs, and LBs can also fail, but at least a team doesn't have to sell the farm to get them. If you have a team that needs ONLY a QB to get to the big dance, do what you must to get one. The Bills have MANY needs, a very successful draft this year coupled with 100 million in cap space in 2019 would allow us to get a top tier [not necessarily HOF] proven  QB to go with the newly enhanced roster.

I'm not say'n,---- I'm just say'n.

Sure, no one knows what these guys will become, but all of the top guys have a chance at greatness. You can’t say that about every QB class. They might become busts, but now is as good a time as any to sell the farm for a QB. You have to do it at some point. Do we want another Keenum? It’s nice to say that he led his team to the NFC championship, but his team replaced him immediately. That speaks volumes to the importance of a real franchise QB imo.  

19 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  This is too smart so it will go over some heads and others will criticize it because you went against the herd.  The fact is nobody here knows how any of the QB's will turn out and quite a few times the speed of the NFL is too fast for a college QB to process mentally.  That plagued both Losman and Manuel to various degrees.

Losman and Manuel never possessed the traits that Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold possess. They were both poor draft choices from the start. Drafting Mayfield, Rosen, or Darnold would

never be a poor decision, regardless of what level of success they achieve. They have almost everything you’d want from a QB coming into the league. You’d be playing the right cards, now you just have to see if they’re winning cards. Drafting Losman and Manuel was like playing the wrong cards from the start. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by DriveFor1Outta5

[Andy1]

No one knows anything about projecting college QB success in the NFL. McBean has shown good judgement so far. They will figure it out. Hysteria with threats of firing people is not a recipe for success. Chill....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

The best prospects will be gone by pick 5. If we can't crack that, we sort through the seconds and hope for the best or trust Beane knows his future is dependent on getting the QB right. 20 years without a franchise QB has taken its toll. All the impressive process we've seen, and it has been Impressive, ultimately will mean little if we can't fix the QB position.

 

Historically often the best QB are gone by pick 3

[ALF]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Historically often the best QB are gone by pick 3

 

Can hope this draft is more like 83 , for our sake

[mead107]

Sure glad Brady was a first round pick at # 3.  

???????????????

[Green Lightning]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Historically often the best QB are gone by pick 3

True that. 

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Sure glad Brady was a first round pick at # 3.  

???????????????

 

Stop with the lottery ticket nonsense.

[Tyrod's friend]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Historically often the best QB are gone by pick 3

By pick #3? No, not even close. I mean, so far from close it's absurd. Even if you are talking the third QB taken, it's not necessarily so. C'mon.

20 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Stop with the lottery ticket nonsense.

Watson 2017

Prescott 2016

2015 <none>

2014 Carr

2013 Smith>EJM feh no choices

2012 Wilson > Luck Cousins> RG3

I could go on and on but why?

it's so stupid it's ridiculous. Do you want to go down the line on all the QBs in the draft? Ben? Brees? Brady? Cousins? Gimme a break.

 

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, PBLESS said:

In my mind an overlooked consideration is that NO ONE really has any idea which, IF ANY of the so called big 4 or 5 or even 6 QBs that everyone wants to move up for,  will be a Tom Brady or an EJ Manuel. In fact AJ McCarron might be another Keenum,  Peterman had ONE tough game, [ and quite a bit that went wrong was not even because of NP]. My point is that with QBs no one really knows for a year or two if a team did the right thing by giving away valuable draft capital to get an unknown. Yes, it is true that highly drafted CBs, WRs, and LBs can also fail, but at least a team doesn't have to sell the farm to get them. If you have a team that needs ONLY a QB to get to the big dance, do what you must to get one. The Bills have MANY needs, a very successful draft this year coupled with 100 million in cap space in 2019 would allow us to get a top tier [not necessarily HOF] proven  QB to go with the newly enhanced roster.

I'm not say'n,---- I'm just say'n.

 

Usually it takes longer than 1 or 2 years to determine if a starting QB is the real deal unless they're a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.  IMO, the jury's still out on exactly how good Bortles with 4 years of starting and Winston and Mariota with 3 years apiece really are.  Wentz looks like the real deal but can he come back just as good from knee surgery?  Goff made massive strides between his rookie and sophomore campaigns but can he continue to improve?

 

The reality is that even with a top 3 pick, lightning still has to strike in order for a team to come out with a HOF caliber QB. Have Donovan McNabb (#2 in 1999), Michael Vick (#1 in 2001), Carson Palmer (#1 in 2003) and Alex Smith (#1 in 2005) had good enough careers to get into the HOF at some point?   What about Matt Ryan (#3 in 2008), Matthew Stafford (#1 in 2009), Sam Bradford (#1 in 2010),  Cam Newton (#1 in 2011) or Andrew Luck (#1 in 2012)?  IMO, except for Ryan and Stafford, none of the others have been good enough.  Now, Newton is still young and Luck is young and has been injured, but neither has quite lived up to the hype surrounding them when they were drafted.

 

8 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

The best prospects will be gone by pick 5. If we can't crack that, we sort through the seconds and hope for the best or trust Beane knows his future is dependent on getting the QB right. 20 years without a franchise QB has taken its toll. All the impressive process we've seen, and it has been Impressive, ultimately will mean little if we can't fix the QB position.

 

Well, sir, manure happens.  I personally don't think that the pros are as hyped up by this crop of QBs as Bills fans are.  If they were, none of the teams holding top 5 picks would even be thinking of trading out of those slots, much less actually doing so, so my guess is that there will be at least 2 or 3 of the top prospects available between picks 6-12. 

 

That doesn't mean that I would necessarily want the Bills to take one of them.  I would rather the Bills not take a first round QB at all if they can't get to their first choice than waste even the #12 or #22 pick on a prospect that they don't really believe in just to placate the idiot fan base so that they buy tickets.  That's how the Bills ended up with Losman and Manuel. 

 

Furthermore, the best prospects don't necessarily turn out to be the best QBs as Tom Brady,  Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson all demonstrate. Sometimes those second and third and sixth tier prospects can shine if given the opportunity ... and the top tier prospects fail despite being given every opportunity.

 

 

[fansince88]

In summary :