A “Good Year” to trade up. The quality of “the one”, not the quantity of “maybes”

[Niagara Dude]

2 hours ago, simpleman said:

Personally I would make that trade for Mayfield. But I really doubt it would ever come that cheap.  You might be able to make that trade down, but I doubt you could make that trade up so cheaply.

 

No Mayfield please

[I_want_2_BILL_Lieve]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

 

 

in short. Case or Bridgewater or Foles would be best move.

 

Shortened for space.

 

I see this quite a bit; Lumping Case, Bridgerwater and Foles together. Case and Bridgerwater are UFA and will cost nothing in terms of draft capital. Expensive in terms of the cap however. Case had a great year on a VERY good team. Bridgewater hasn't played since God knows when. He's a risk. 

 

Foles is under contract. Great year for him. But rumor has it Eagles want a 1st and 4th for him. Is his production repeatable? Not sure. And how much more in draft capital are we from using said 1st and 4th to move up and get our guy? Another 1st, maybe a 2nd? 

 

I don't need a generational talent. By definition that comes around every 20 years. I need a consistant top 5-10 guy that makes every player around him better.

 

We're in a perfect storm. There are a lot of QBs available in FA, some of whom will cause teams to lessen their demand for a QB. This draft year there is an unusually large supply of quality QBs available in the draft. Finally, we have the draft capital to move up without it being a "Full Ditka". Even with a trade using draft capital, some quality picks will remain to address other needs. 

 

What better place than here

What better time than now.

 

[MJS]

Every QB gets picked apart to death these days. I predict that there will never be a draft again where there is a consensus "generational talent". Not because QB's aren't as good, but because we can pick apart their faults and strengths unlike ever before.

 

Goff and Wentz weren't viewed as generational guys. They were picked apart to death, just like every other class. Wentz looks like a top 5 QB now and Goff is looking pretty good too.

 

The last "generational talent" draft was Luck and RGIII, right? RGIII flamed out quickly and Luck, despite having some promising signs, has never quite been what we expected either.

 

So no. I disagree. It is ALWAYS a guessing game in the draft. You simply don't know if there are generational guys or not. Guessing beforehand doesn't make a difference.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, lookylookyherecomescookie said:

I don't know which qb's the Bills value or want. They have (hopefully) many skilled football people who know far more than me. I do know, however, what Mcbean says and does.

1. The NFL is a quarterback driven league.  Just look at rules and rule changes over the years, to say nothing of league standings. 

2. You can win with a mid-level qb, just not consistently.

3. Mcbean has said the Bills want to be long term consistent winners.

4. To be long term consistent winners , you need a stud qb  (a consensus  consistent top 10 qb). I'm pretty sure Mcbean didn't get to where they are without knowing this.

5. You can get a qb through trade, FA, or the draft.

6. Chance of stud qb through trade or FA is low. I know-Brees, maybe Cousins. But true stud qbs are rare by this route. If you are a gm, and have your stud, you are not going to trade him, or let him go FA, (unless you screw up like the redskins-and even there, not sure cousins is your stud).

7. Draft- you can go for a day one starter (extremely rare) or go for qb with a high ceiling who will probably need to sit behind a bridge qb for awhile.

8. The Bills just traded TT (truly the definition of a bridge  qb who is serviceable while you are rebuilding your team and letting your high ceiling draft pick, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc sit and learn) They are going for a day one starter. If not, they would have kept TT.

9. only possible day one starters are Rosen, Mayfield, maybe Darnold 

10. The draft-  Browns just got their bridge qb, if they go qb at 1 or 4, probably go Darnold or Allen                           

                                  Giants don't have to go qb, have lots of holes, could definitely trade down

                                 Colts     Possible trade down if Luck is ok,  qb if they doubt Luck

                                Browns

                                Broncos are in win now situation, probably don't draft a qb, go with the best established vet they can put on the field today

11. The bills will trade up to #1,2,or 3 if they feel  Rosen, Mayfield or Darnold is a day one starter

12. Most likely trade partner is giants where Beane knows and presumably trusts their gm and vice versa. (my guess is the deal is already in place).

13. All this is predicated on the Bills feeling Rosen or Mayfield is a day one starter. They haven't been collecting draft choices since they got here to pick a game-changing DT or linebacker. They're nice but don't win championships . They're here to get a long term stud QB. They may hit, they may miss, but look at their words and actions.

 

Good post, post more.

 

The only thing I will add to your assessment is that I believe Beane is a long-term strategic thinker.  He was in Carolina as "Director of Football Operations" and presumably had a seat at the table when Carolina drafted The Pickle #48 overall (rd 2), then shook their heads, said "not our guy", threw him back in the pond, and pulled the trigger next year for Cam Newton.  If I recall, Carolina didn't have 1st round picks in 2009 and 2010 because they traded up for someone (RB?  OT?) in 2008?  The point is he's BT, DT on the plusses and minuses of gathering picks and spending them.

 

So if Beane isn't sold on someone in this year's class to trade up for, his background says won't do it 'just because'.  He'll be perfectly willing to either use the picks elsewhere, or to trade down and gather another pick for next year.  But he won't hesitate to go after someone he wants, either.

 

[lookylookyherecomescookie]

you're right.  this is all predicated on Mcbean feeling there is a day one starter in the draft.   If he does, he'll trade up, I think for Rosen.  If he doesn't, he won't.  One other point.  Pegula didn't get where he is without taking calculated (not wild) risks. He hired Mcbean who has shown he's willing to take risks (i.e. watkins, darby, dareus).  Mcbean is strategic in his thinking, but he's shown a willingness to be bold.

[John from Riverside]

I honestly believe that this is a year where several quarterbacks have a ton of potential to be the guy.  I am still high on Lamar Jackson in the right situation.

 

However

 

This all goes back to the trade down last year to have two 1sts this year where we picked up tre....then started offloading our talent for draft picks........coupled with the anticipation that this was the year to find a generational talent.

 

I dont think it went perfectly for Bean because I dont think he expected us to do as well as we did....that is a credit to our coaching.

 

but the fact remains......the ammo is there.....we conceivably could walk out of this draft with Josh Rosen.

[Bornafan66]

6 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

Ridiculous. So when is it a good time to go after a qb?

It's this year for sure. We bringing in at least two new QBs. Wheather its two FA's, a FA and a draft pick or what ever. This isn't the regime to sit on their thumbs and hope something happens. I seriously doubt they reach in the draft. We're going to be the team to watch next week and in the draft for sure.

[lookylookyherecomescookie]

    If they think Rosen is a starter from day one, they will get him.  while I think trading up is almost always a losing proposition, if you think you can get a long term stud at qb cost becomes meaningless. 

 

    You can always fill in around your qb through the draft, through midlevel  FA signings, or through trades.  If you don't have enough draft choices because you spent so much to move up in the draft, you can meet your other needs through free agency, as you will be in good shape capwise when your usually most expensive player (qb) is on a rookie salary.

 

    There are always ways to get any position filled except qb.   For the right qb, cost doesn't matter.  The problem is identifying the right qb. If you've done that, you can dicker with a trade partner about what you have to give up to get your guy, but beyond that, the process is pretty much a foregone conclusion.  That's why I believe the Bills have already come to terms with the giants.  In the giants, the Bills will have a trade partner who can provide them what they need, (Rosen or Mayfield) and the Giants have a trade partner who can give them what they want (many draft choices, and possibly Cordy). There is no reason the details couldn't have been worked out already. Again, this is all predicated on Rosen being the choice.  ( Mayfield doesn't seem to be a Mcbean type of guy)

 

   The right qb is literally priceless

[gobills1212]

I just don't understand how it can even be argued any other way. Now that Tyrod is gone, the #1 argument is they have SO MANY HOLES to fill and trading away the picks don't allow for them to be filled. 

But the opposite is..... getting a FA guy drafting to fill holes... and then rather than filling holes w next yrs 90 mill in cap space - THEN we go try and buy a QB? Seems a little all too familiar. 

IF you love a guy, go get him. Let him learn this yr and go fill holes next year. Maybe it just makes too much sense... Maybe people are afraid of change? Either way, this argument scares the heck outta me...

[simpleman]

7 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

#1. Luck was as close to a sure thing as possible.. and further down you admit that thus #1 comment makes 0 sense.

#

 

 So many keep saying this is such a great year to trade up by "betting the farm" to draft a QB. I listed a few things that might actually define such a great year.   And then I showed how this was not such a great year, since other than desperation and wild hunches, few of those things that might define a good year exist this year for the Bills. 

Just having a quantity of flawed "maybes" and no "sure things" does not qualify this as a great year for trading up by "betting the farm". No one is mentioning any other reasons to define it as a great year, other than out of desperation and their wild hunches. I said it is not logical to "bet the farm" unless it is a sure thing. I don't think too many actually think any of the first tier QBs this year is close to even a Luck type "sure thing".  How does that invalidate  statement #1?

  A good gambler never " bets the farm" on anything short of a sure thing. He only makes reasonable bets that he is 100% positive he can afford to lose, when he is betting on "longshots". It it not about never trading up, it is about being rational and taking risks that are reasonably proportionate to the rewards, not "betting the farm" out of sheer desperation.

Edited March 11, 2018 by simpleman

[lookylookyherecomescookie]

1.  It's possible the Bills think one of the qb's is a sure thing.  They could be right, could be wrong, but they probably are better informed and better evaluators than anyone on        this board.  

2. a good gambler doesn't bet the farm because if he is wrong, game is over, he goes home (if he still has one).

      an nfl gm can bet the farm, because if he is wrong, especially early in his tenure, he still has his job tomorrow,and has (in Mcbean's case) several years to recover from his          mistake.

[bigduke6]

8 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Gosh how swell of you!  We compliled picks to grab a franchise QB which haven't had for decades. Much smarter football people than you or I have deemed this an outstanding year to draft a QB. So you're weak-kneed on using our draft capital in a QB rich year. That's fine, maybe you can compile the lists of LBs, DBs or any position that made their team champions. If McBeane deems trading picks to move up, excellent. I'm tired of mediocrity. 

 

Hell yes. But I'd rather have the key position locked down to lead us out of suckage.  Bad teams with great QBs often contend. 

again, u seem to be using me to push your agenda and you didnt read anything i previously posted.  you cherrypicked one line out of context and went to town.

 

the discussion was about risk aversion.   take your weak knee crap elsewhere.   at no point did i say definately dont take a QB.

 

few of u around this forum seem to jump in late without taking the time to read the discussion thoroughly.   its like youre itching for a fight and gonna try to stir one up no matter what.

 

its a discussion,  not a winner take all.   grow up.

 

 

[Lurker]

11 hours ago, simpleman said:

 

1.) There is a generational talent at QB who is as close to a “sure thing” as possible.

 

 

I stopped reading right there.   I presume you're speaking about Rosen?

 

I have yet to hear any credible scout call him 'generational.'   Let's not get carried away on the talent pool available this year, even though it looks likely the Bills are going to draft a QB...

[Green Lightning]

17 minutes ago, bigduke6 said:

again, u seem to be using me to push your agenda and you didnt read anything i previously posted.  you cherrypicked one line out of context and went to town.

 

the discussion was about risk aversion.   take your weak knee crap elsewhere.   at no point did i say definately dont take a QB.

 

few of u around this forum seem to jump in late without taking the time to read the discussion thoroughly.   its like youre itching for a fight and gonna try to stir one up no matter what.

 

its a discussion,  not a winner take all.   grow up.

 

 

You're the belligerent one my friend

 I get along with everyone and even often calm the convo down. QB is a sensitive topic in these parts and bristling posts  beget bristling responses. Clearly we see this topic differently and I am excited for what's to come. I trust you are as well. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

I stopped reading right there.   I presume you're speaking about Rosen?

 

I have yet to hear any credible scout call him 'generational.'   Let's not get carried away on the talent pool available this year, even though it looks likely the Bills are going to draft a QB...

 

I think you're misunderstanding our "op" friend.  I think if you read again you'll see he's creating a list of reasons why we should NOT draft a QB this year, due to lack of "generational" talents worthy of trading our magnificant valuable picks.

[Ga boy]

4 hours ago, lookylookyherecomescookie said:

    If they think Rosen is a starter from day one, they will get him.  while I think trading up is almost always a losing proposition, if you think you can get a long term stud at qb cost becomes meaningless. 

 

    You can always fill in around your qb through the draft, through midlevel  FA signings, or through trades.  If you don't have enough draft choices because you spent so much to move up in the draft, you can meet your other needs through free agency, as you will be in good shape capwise when your usually most expensive player (qb) is on a rookie salary.

 

    There are always ways to get any position filled except qb.   For the right qb, cost doesn't matter.  The problem is identifying the right qb. If you've done that, you can dicker with a trade partner about what you have to give up to get your guy, but beyond that, the process is pretty much a foregone conclusion.  That's why I believe the Bills have already come to terms with the giants.  In the giants, the Bills will have a trade partner who can provide them what they need, (Rosen or Mayfield) and the Giants have a trade partner who can give them what they want (many draft choices, and possibly Cordy). There is no reason the details couldn't have been worked out already. Again, this is all predicated on Rosen being the choice.  ( Mayfield doesn't seem to be a Mcbean type of guy)

 

   The right qb is literally priceless

The right guy with the right stuff is priceless;  but, the price is too high for a maybe great.   I would trade our 2 firsts, and a 2nd, to move up to get a maybe, but nothing more.  We got more holes than swiss cheese.

[bigduke6]

4 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

You're the belligerent one my friend

 I get along with everyone and even often calm the convo down. QB is a sensitive topic in these parts and bristling posts  beget bristling responses. Clearly we see this topic differently and I am excited for what's to come. I trust you are as well. 

clearly you and i see the definition of belligerent differently.