simpleman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) A “Good Year” to trade up. The quality of “the one”, not the quantity of “maybes” A Great year to trade up to pick a QB is a year where: 1.) There is a generational talent at QB who is as close to a “sure thing” as possible. 2.) You have the trade capitol to spend to get that talent, without setting back the rest of your team for multiple years by spending that trade capitol you desperately need elsewhere. You are almost a franchise QB away from having a solid team. 3.) There is minimal need and competition from other teams for that player, driving up the cost of the trade to you. 4.) Your potential trade partner does not need that franchise QB, since they already have one. And there are no other generational “sure thing” choices at a position of need for them available at their draft position during the draft. It is not about quantity, it is about quality when you trade up. This is a year of a quantity of “maybes”, and no quality “sure things”. There is no consensus generational QB talent this year. All the top picks are flawed in some way or other. The last time there was as close to a “sure thing”, was when Andrew Luck was in the draft. There is no Andrew Luck in this draft. Just a lot of flawed “maybe” QB’s. No “sure thing” generational talent. When you trade up, you do it for a specific player. Unlike being lucky in a year when you have a high pick, where you at least have better odds of the player you want being there when your pick comes up. The odds are no better that you will get “the one” during that single trade up to get there, since you choose when, and who to do it for. It is about just one player, the one that you are positive is the one. Not about how many “maybes” there are to choose from. We may have draft capitol, but we do have so many serious holes everywhere, few teams except the Browns have more holes than we do. We have been exposed to almost 20 years of “3 year planned rebuilds”. And you want us to believe we should wait yet another 3 years, and expect for this one to turn out any different than it has for the last almost 20 years? This is a year when there are an exceptionally large number of teams also desperately looking for their “Franchise QB”. About the only thing you possibly have going for you this year is that there are 3 or 4 teams with high draft picks who don’t absolutely “need” a Franchise QB and are willing to trade. A “Good Year” to trade up is not about the “quantity of maybes” available that year. It is a year where there that “one” who you believe is as close to sure thing as possible for your team is available, and you are in the best position in the league to get that “one”. Edited March 11, 2018 by simpleman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 So we should go after Foles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRex Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 OK Theory, but the reality remains, who do you think is the one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, mead107 said: So we should go after Foles? On 03/02/2018 at 12:01 PM, simpleman said: I assume this is sarcasm. Most QBs would be ecstatic with Kaepernick's score. Politics aside, his record and stats are above RG3. Again, as a bridge QB, I think he is well above a majority of the possible FA QBs. It is only because of those that have a political bias tainting their reasoning that he is not an NFL starter. Compared to Cousins his worst rated year was 78, while Cousins had a rating of 58. Both have decent stats. Kap -TDS 72 INT 30 YDS 12,271 RTG 88.9 Cousins – TDS 27 INT 13 YDS 4,093 RTG 93.9 I would take Kaps numbers for 1/3 less money in a heartbeat Sounds like he's more in on Kapernick... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drf1835 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Risk versus reward, and there are no guarantees. Let me explain. If a general manager wants a safe q.b, afraid to make mistakes, you get Tyrod Taylor that leads you not too far. You must have a great supporting cast, to lead further. Wenz and Goff all had questions coming out. They were not locks. Both seem on their way to big things. So, with no guts come no glory, and a lifetime of mostly no playoffs, unless the Bills have tons of talent on their whole roster, which they do not, as they have lots of holes to fill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niagara Dude Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) End of the day, we are not winning the Super Bowl next season. The Bills need to use this season and picks to get their franchise QB, time is right and avoiding this will just make things harder down the road. This is a passing league, ground and pound is for losers. You win passing the football in this league, get the franchise QB and then add players around him. It starts and end at the QB position, this a QB driven league and we have not had an elite one in a long time. You could argue making the playoffs was a fluke, free agents want to play for your team when they see that you have an elite QB. I believe getting one of top 3 guys would be worth a season of losing next year because Brady's time is soon coming to an end . Philly will be great team for years because of Carson Wentz , remember ground and pound does not get it done. Edited March 11, 2018 by Niagara Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpleman Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 The point is that a majority of those who are so hot to "bet the farm" this year to trade up are doing so out of sheer desperation, not out of logic or straight thinking. An intelligent "process" does not do things out of desperation. Unless the team truly thinks there is "the one" there in the draft, they should not bet the farm to get a "QB". A good year to draft a QB is not about the quantity of the players to gamble on, it is about the availability of "the one" you believe in that year. Desperation is a poor reason to justify" betting the farm". I agree about bridge QBs, Kap is probably among the best Vet options available, but it is the inability of so many to separate their politics from their sport that removes that choice. There is no " the one" option truly available this year in the draft, nor as a FA. If that is the case, I would rather stay put and choose the best options available at our draft positions, or if the team felt there was no player worth the risk at that position, trade down and get more options to build the team. I would not be opposed to multiple QB picks this year, a 2nd round or late first via a trade down, and a later round pick. I think any pick this year should be considered developmental, since none is a sure thing to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmur66 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 So when in the history of the NFL have all of these conditions been met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I'm in the trade up/trade down crowd. One of the top 4 will fall to #10, I think it's going to be Baker Mayfield IMO. Height concerns, character concerns etc. I think he falls. Trade up: 21, 53 and our 3rd next year to Oakland for #10, take Baker Mayfield. Trade down: Deal 22 for a 2nd and a 3rd, recoup all the draft picks we lost in the trade up. The result: We got a top 10 QB practically for free. 21 and 22 can be used strategically, we can move up and down while losing next to nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 44 minutes ago, simpleman said: A “Good Year” to trade up. The quality of “the one”, not the quantity of “maybes” A Great year to trade up to pick a QB is a year where: 1.) There is a generational talent at QB who is as close to a “sure thing” as possible. 2.) You have the trade capitol to spend to get that talent, without setting back the rest of your team for multiple years by spending that trade capitol you desperately need elsewhere. You are almost a franchise QB away from having a solid team. 3.) There is minimal need and competition from other teams for that player, driving up the cost of the trade to you. 4.) Your potential trade partner does not need that franchise QB, since they already have one. And there are no other generational “sure thing” choices at a position of need for them available at their draft position during the draft. It is not about quantity, it is about quality when you trade up. This is a year of a quantity of “maybes”, and no quality “sure things”. There is no consensus generational QB talent this year. All the top picks are flawed in some way or other. The last time there was as close to a “sure thing”, was when Andrew Luck was in the draft. There is no Andrew Luck in this draft. Just a lot of flawed “maybe” QB’s. No “sure thing” generational talent. When you trade up, you do it for a specific player. Unlike being lucky in a year when you have a high pick, where you at least have better odds of the player you want being there when your pick comes up. The odds are no better that you will get “the one” during that single trade up to get there, since you choose when, and who to do it for. It is about just one player, the one that you are positive is the one. Not about how many “maybes” there are to choose from. We may have draft capitol, but we do have so many serious holes everywhere, few teams except the Browns have more holes than we do. We have been exposed to almost 20 years of “3 year planned rebuilds”. And you want us to believe we should wait yet another 3 years, and expect for this one to turn out any different than it has for the last almost 20 years? This is a year when there are an exceptionally large number of teams also desperately looking for their “Franchise QB”. About the only thing you possibly have going for you this year is that there are 3 or 4 teams with high draft picks who don’t absolutely “need” a Franchise QB and are willing to trade. A “Good Year” to trade up is not about the “quantity of maybes” available that year. It is a year where there that “one” who you believe is as close to sure thing as possible for your team is available, and you are in the best position in the league to get that “one”. Were Wentz and Goff once in a generation QB's or sure things? It's the most important position on the field. You got to roll a dice every now and then. This is our year. Edited March 11, 2018 by Green Lightning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpleman Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, bmur66 said: So when in the history of the NFL have all of these conditions been met? The fact is that none of those conditions have been met for the Bills this year. If none are met, you are acting out of desperation , not intelligence. Bad gambles for the sake of desperation do not make good gambles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ga boy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said: End of the day, we are not winning the Super Bowl next season. The Bills need to use this season and picks to get their franchise QB, time is right and avoiding this will just make things harder down the road. This is a passing league, ground and pound is for losers. You win passing the football in this league, get the franchise QB and then add players around him. It starts and end at the QB position, this a QB driven league and we have not had an elite one in a long time. You could argue making the playoffs was a fluke, free agents want to play for your team when they see that you have an elite QB. I believe getting one of top 3 guys would be worth a season of losing next year because Brady's time is soon coming to an end . Philly will be great team for years because of Carson Wentz , remember ground and pound does not get it done. Hey Niagara Dude: Are we sure that there is a franchise QB in this draft? Risk and reward must be reasonable. I would give up our first 6 picks and next years first 3 for Aaron Rodgers because he's the real deal. A lot of folks are gaga over this year's draft, but we would be bringing a rookie on to a team that is looking at 4-12 if we trade all of our draft capital I would say target Oakland's pick to see if someone is still there, if not, use our 2nds for one of the second tier dudes. I don't see this GM doing something with high risks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpleman Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: I'm in the trade up/trade down crowd. One of the top 4 will fall to #10, I think it's going to be Baker Mayfield IMO. Height concerns, character concerns etc. I think he falls. Trade up: 21, 53 and our 3rd next year to Oakland for #10, take Baker Mayfield. Trade down: Deal 22 for a 2nd and a 3rd, recoup all the draft picks we lost in the trade up. The result: We got a top 10 QB practically for free. 21 and 22 can be used strategically, we can move up and down while losing next to nothing. Personally I would make that trade for Mayfield. But I really doubt it would ever come that cheap. You might be able to make that trade down, but I doubt you could make that trade up so cheaply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) Your conditions are just a bunch of stuff that you made up. But you wrote it like it is some kind of universal truth. You create a problem because most of those conditions will NEVER happen, ever. The one single thing of all of them that could happen, happens every ten or fifteen years. Sure thing generational talent. Last was Luck. 17 minutes ago, bmur66 said: So when in the history of the NFL have all of these conditions been met? Never. This one I think is the worst one: "There is minimal need and competition from other teams for that player, driving up the cost of the trade to you." We wait til nobody wants a sure thing generational talent at QB. The only way that could possibly happen is if we are an NBA or a Major League baseball team. Edited March 11, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigduke6 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Green Lightning said: Were Wentz and Goff once in a generation QB's or sure things? It's the most important position on the field. You got to roll a dice every now and then. This is our year. no they were not, but u act as if their greatness is a foregone conclusion already. each of them has had 1 good year. kinda like the Deshaun Watson bandwagon that has formed. Dude played good in 4 games..... only way it would be "our year" is if we had a legit top 5 pick that didnt cost us the rest of our draft to use. none of these QBs scream next great thing. if youre willing to gamble on one of these guys, with as much draft capital it will take, well, i find that extremely reckless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, bigduke6 said: no they were not, but u act as if their greatness is a foregone conclusion already. each of them has had 1 good year. kinda like the Deshaun Watson bandwagon that has formed. Dude played good in 4 games..... only way it would be "our year" is if we had a legit top 5 pick that didnt cost us the rest of our draft to use. none of these QBs scream next great thing. if youre willing to gamble on one of these guys, with as much draft capital it will take, well, i find that extremely reckless. Right so let's sit our hands for another 17 years and hope something falls our way. Sorry I've heard it before. You can draft all the great players you want but if your quarterback sucks you're going to suck. That's just life in the NFL you have to deal with it. This is the year to get a quarterback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpleman Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Green Lightning said: Right so let's sit our hands for another 17 years and hope something falls our way. Sorry I've heard it before. You can draft all the great players you want but if your quarterback sucks you're going to suck. That's just life in the NFL you have to deal with it. This is the year to get a quarterback. This is the year? Based on desperation and a hunch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigduke6 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Green Lightning said: Right so let's sit our hands for another 17 years and hope something falls our way. Sorry I've heard it before. You can draft all the great players you want but if your quarterback sucks you're going to suck. That's just life in the NFL you have to deal with it. This is the year to get a quarterback. no doubt we need a QB, have needed one since Kelly retired, but to overreact, overreach, overspend, well thats one the biggest problems with most people in this society. its a gambling mentality disease, and it rarely pays out. your 17yr drought will turn into what if we miss on picking a QB this upcoming draft? the thing about common sense, its not all that common. Edited March 11, 2018 by bigduke6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, simpleman said: This is the year? Based on desperation and a hunch? Based on Talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, simpleman said: This is the year? Based on desperation and a hunch? So this isn't the year based off of being scared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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