Scot McCloughan on Kirk Cousins: "I Don't See Special" - Headed for UFA

[26CornerBlitz]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a really good article, as far as it goes.   It's really good in laying out the cap situation, what Cousins has done in his career so far, etc.  

 

It's really good about the contract the Cousins will get.   His stats put him in the top 10, and his contract will put him there.   Sure, he'll be at the top of the list, but that's only because the value of QB contracts keeps going up.   What he will get isn't going to be out of line.  

 

But it's pretty weak on analysis.   He concludes that McBeane should "stick with the plan," but McBeane have never said that the plan is to get a QB in the draft.   They have said they want to build through draft with some free agents added in.   So signing a free agent quarterback isn't necessarily contrary to the plan.  

 

He also just says McBeane would like to have a rookie whom they can develop the way they want, and that way they'll have a younger guy.   Well, 

 

What we need to know, and we don't, is what kind of quarterback McBeane want.  If Cousins is exactly what they're looking for, why wouldn't they sign him?   Maybe it's Bridgewater.   I don't know, but Sal doesn't explain why McBeane wouldn't sign a free agent QB.   

 

He also says McBeane would prefer to draft a rookie whom they can develop the way they want, and that rookie would be several years younger.   He doesn't discuss the downside of that approach.    First, if you get the wrong guy, you have nothing three or four  years from now.   If you have Cousins, you've already gotten three or four good years from him, and you probably have three or four more good ones.   Plenty of time to develop someone.   Second, even if you have the right guy, it might take 3 or 4 years to get him to top 10 performance.   It took Brady that long, Luck isn't there yet.   Sal doesn't take into consideration how long it will take for the drafted guy to be worth it, and he doesn't take into consideration the odds that the guy won't ever develop.  Plus, by the time the rookie gets good, he'll need a new contract, and all the cap space you've saved by not signing Cousins and then spent of others will be gone, and you'll need to be managing cap for a $30 or $35 million contract.  

 

Essentially, all he's said is that he'd take his chances in the draft.   Doing that gives some higher upside potential but also gives him higher likelihood that his QB doesn't pan out.   

 

Fact is, we're not going to know anything until we see what McBeane do.   They're not going to tell us what's important to them, and without than, we just don't know. 

 

Your analysis doesn't add up.  If they signed an overpaid Cousins there would be no need to draft a QB to develop with a premium pick not to mention it makes things harder to keep your own or acquire other players.

 

The draft and development model aligns with what I have heard and read from Beane who has said not to expect splash signings in UFA.  I have no doubt he trusts his own eyes and those of his scouts to pick the right guy.  Your usage of Luck not being a top 10 QB to buttress your argument is curious because he certainly has been prior to his injury.  You obviously favor signing Cousins so it's no surprise you're looking at the downside. 

 

I believe they will sign a bridge QB and let the potential franchise guy develop while they continue to build the rest of the team. 

 

[HT02]

On 1/25/2018 at 9:29 AM, Shaw66 said:

I agree with the difference between top 5 and top 10. My point is that it's foolish to wait to make a bet on QB until you see one that you think is top 5.  

 

Rosen Darnold and Mayfield each has less than a10% probability of being top 5.  Betting on them is a long shot.  

 

Better strategy to go after a guy who is high probably top 10 and hope he exceeds expectations.  He gives you a chance to compete every year. 

 

Getting a top 5 guy is luck. Probably one out of 10 guys picked at 1 through 10 becomes top 5, 1 out of 50 of the guys picked after that.  I'd take Cousins, know I can compete every year, and hope either he over achieves or I find my top 5 guy in the draft in succeeding years.  

I can absolutely see your point, and it's a good argument its just a difference in philosophy. Similar to the different styles of offense or defense.  Both can work its the execution of the strategy that makes the difference.  I would still rather pass on the safer bet and focus on getting one of top 5 QB's but I understand your approach

[aristocrat]

How would you guys handle the cap hit?  If he were to get the 27 per I'd like to see us structure the cap hit for 30 mil next year....monster 50 mil in 19 that way they following years can lower down to around 20 or so. 

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, HT02 said:

I can absolutely see your point, and it's a good argument its just a difference in philosophy. Similar to the different styles of offense or defense.  Both can work its the execution of the strategy that makes the difference.  I would still rather pass on the safer bet and focus on getting one of top 5 QB's but I understand your approach

Yeah, difference in philosophy.   Succeeding the NFL is brutally difficult, and there isn't one formula.   

 

I've said it before:  I'd love to be sitting the room, listening to McBeane talk about this stuff.   I'd love to know what they're thinking.   

12 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

How would you guys handle the cap hit?  If he were to get the 27 per I'd like to see us structure the cap hit for 30 mil next year....monster 50 mil in 19 that way they following years can lower down to around 20 or so. 

As interested as I am in football, I've never really spent any time thinking about things like the cap.   To me, that's all just business, and the business people can figure it out.   It's complicated.

 

Having said that, I'm sure they can do it.   I think there are limits as to how much money you can push into one year, as you suggest.   I think if the total money in any one year that is a lot more than the average of the whole deal, the League automatically converts a big chunk of it to signing bonus instead of one-year money and spreads that chunk over the entire contract, like a signing bonus.   You can pay the guy a dollar this year and $30 million a year for the next four, and that will reduce the cap hit in the first year, but the cap hit in year one will be a lot more than a dollar.   It would probably be $24 million, or something like that.   

 

Some folks here understand those rules.   The point is, if they want Cousins, the business people will figure out how to get him what he wants and structure it in a way that is as cap friendly for the Bills as possible.   

 

The cap can be managed.   There are only three questions:   Do the Bills want him, are the Bills willing to pay what it takes to get him, and does he want to be in Buffalo.   Answer all three yes and he's in Buffalo.   Answer any one of those no and he's somewhere else.  

[26CornerBlitz]

Patrick Peterson: Cousins can 'get us over the top'

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

After the Alex Smith trade news dropped, Joe Buscaglia and Matthew Fairburn decided to spend an entire episode on the pros and cons of Kirk Cousins with the Bills, some of the other free agent names out there, and how they should approach things with Tyrod Taylor moving forward.

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Anybody that is blaming Cousins for not making the playoffs this year obviously didn't watch him play. They gutted his wide receiving core before the season only bringing in a disappointing Terrelle Pryor. His running backs were a joke all year. His defense was sub par. Yet Cousins fought tooth and nail for every yard he could. 

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

Anybody that is blaming Cousins for not making the playoffs this year obviously didn't watch him play. They gutted his wide receiving core before the season only bringing in a disappointing Terrelle Pryor. His running backs were a joke all year. His defense was sub par. Yet Cousins fought tooth and nail for every yard he could. 

 

When this kind of stuff is written about Hotrod on TBD,they're referred to as excuses.

 

Do you realize EVERYTHING you said except the playoffs part applies to our QB as well? Substitute Matthews for Pryor. 

[26CornerBlitz]

Mortgaging the future on Kirk Cousins

The first mistake is quite simple for the Bills, don’t fall into the trap of paying Kirk Cousins money that’ll hinder the future of the franchise and marionette the moves Buffalo can make.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

When this kind of stuff is written about Hotrod on TBD,they're referred to as excuses.

 

Do you realize EVERYTHING you said except the playoffs part applies to our QB as well? Substitute Matthews for Pryor. 

There is one major difference.    

 

Cousins is a passing QB.   

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

When this kind of stuff is written about Hotrod on TBD,they're referred to as excuses.

Do you realize EVERYTHING you said except the playoffs part applies to our QB as well? Substitute Matthews for Pryor. 

 

All true.  And still, Cousins passed for >4000 yds, 27 TD.

Tyrod ....passed for and threw for ah a bit less

 

The idea being if the Bills had 13 more passing TD and about 70 more passing yards per game they might have won more

 

True or false, I think true but others may disagree

Edited February 3, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Mortgaging the future on Kirk Cousins

The first mistake is quite simple for the Bills, don’t fall into the trap of paying Kirk Cousins money that’ll hinder the future of the franchise and marionette the moves Buffalo can make.

I really don't get this.  Peop l e want a great quarterback but they don't want to spend the money.  Well, you can't have great if you don't spend the money. 

[Prickly Pete]

If he was that good, they wouldn't let him walk.

[Success]

Does the idea of playing against Cousins scare anyone?

 

To pay that kind of cash, I want to at least be a little scared.  I’m just not with him.

[GreggTX]

Someone will greatly overpay him. I just hope it isn't us.

[26CornerBlitz]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I really don't get this.  People want a great quarterback but they don't want to spend the money.  Well, you can't have great if you don't spend the money. 

 

Of course people want a great QB, but the problem is he isn't that. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I really don't get this.  Peop l e want a great quarterback but they don't want to spend the money.  Well, you can't have great if you don't spend the money. 

The rub is great.

In today’s nfl even the tier below great are getting paid.  

 

A 2nd Tier is worth the $7 mil more than a 3rd Tier TT   

[NastyNateSoldiers]

16 hours ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

Anybody that is blaming Cousins for not making the playoffs this year obviously didn't watch him play. They gutted his wide receiving core before the season only bringing in a disappointing Terrelle Pryor. His running backs were a joke all year. His defense was sub par. Yet Cousins fought tooth and nail for every yard he could. 

Plus he played nearly the whole season with half his line missing due to injuries 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

15 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

When this kind of stuff is written about Hotrod on TBD,they're referred to as excuses.

 

Do you realize EVERYTHING you said except the playoffs part applies to our QB as well? Substitute Matthews for Pryor. 

Yet he still threw for 4,000 yards and 27 tds. While he got sacked 41 times and averaged 255 pass yards a game. I think he would love to throw to Kelvin Benjamin.

[billieve420]

18 hours ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

Anybody that is blaming Cousins for not making the playoffs this year obviously didn't watch him play. They gutted his wide receiving core before the season only bringing in a disappointing Terrelle Pryor. His running backs were a joke all year. His defense was sub par. Yet Cousins fought tooth and nail for every yard he could. 

 

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All true.  And still, Cousins passed for >4000 yds, 27 TD.

Tyrod ....passed for and threw for ah a bit less

 

The idea being if the Bills had 13 more passing TD and about 70 more passing yards per game they might have won more

 

True or false, I think true but others may disagree

 

Cousin has been in Gruden's system for a few years now. While the Bills were implementing a totally new scheme so not a true comparison. I think it shows that Gruden knows offense and has a good system in place. Reason why they are letting Cousins walk, they believe they can get similar production out of Alex Smith for less money. Teams don't just let Franchise QBs walk. McVay is doing the same with the Rams now. Goff looks much improved this past season but if they had kept fisher and the same offensive staff. I do not think you would have seen the same growth this past season from the Rams offense. 

Edited February 3, 2018 by billieve420

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

12 hours ago, OJABBA said:

If he was that good, they wouldn't let him walk.

 

They couldn't get together on a long term deal. Term being the key word. He felt "disrespected" and "undervalued" by the front office. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

Cousin has been in Gruden's system for a few years now. While the Bills were implementing a totally new scheme so not a true comparison.

 

Do you think that if Tyrod had been in Gruden's system for 3 years, or continued in Lynn/Roman's scheme, his passing production would have improved to the >4000 yds, 26-29 passing TD level?

 

I feel fairly certain that if Tyrod had stayed in Lynn/Roman's scheme and had high quality WR, he would have done better - not fallen off from 217 ypg/20 passing TD to 187 ypg/14 passing TD, maybe even improved.  But I don't think he will ever be a >4000 yd passing QB. 

 

I could be wrong - I would have said that about Alex Smith until this past year.

 

16 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

I think it shows that Gruden knows offense and has a good system in place. Reason why they are letting Cousins walk, they believe they can get similar production out of Alex Smith for less money. Teams don't just let Franchise QBs walk. McVay is doing the same with the Rams now. Goff looks much improved this past season but if they had kept fisher and the same offensive staff. I do not think you would have seen the same growth this past season from the Rams offense. 

 

Of course they think they can get similar from Alex Smith for less money, and of course they think Cousins isn't Mr Franchise.  They showed that when they didn't lock him up 2 years ago.  Whether their judgement is correct is the question.

 

The other question is whether they really had a choice at this point.  If Cousins wanted to hit FA and was taking the position "no way will I sign with you at any price before March 6", and the team didn't want to be locked into paying him $34.7M or whatever it was, they really didn't (have much choice) even if they think Cousins >> Smith

 

I would say the offense is not all on Gruden.  I think McVay >> Cavanaugh as OC, and time will tell whether Smith will regress to the mean, or whether this past year represents his "new normal".

 

I agree with you in spades about Fisher vs McVay

[Prickly Pete]

2 hours ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

 

They couldn't get together on a long term deal. Term being the key word. He felt "disrespected" and "undervalued" by the front office. 

 

Yeah, like I said, he's not that good or they wouldn't let him walk. That's EXACTLY how they treat a guy that's "not that good". 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

34 minutes ago, OJABBA said:

 

Yeah, like I said, he's not that good or they wouldn't let him walk. That's EXACTLY how they treat a guy that's "not that good". 

Do you think he is better than either QB on our roster or on the market for that matter?

[Prickly Pete]

3 minutes ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

Do you think he is better than either QB on our roster or on the market for that matter?

 

most likely, but not worth the price.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, billieve420 said:

 

 

Cousin has been in Gruden's system for a few years now. While the Bills were implementing a totally new scheme so not a true comparison. I think it shows that Gruden knows offense and has a good system in place. Reason why they are letting Cousins walk, they believe they can get similar production out of Alex Smith for less money. Teams don't just let Franchise QBs walk. McVay is doing the same with the Rams now. Goff looks much improved this past season but if they had kept fisher and the same offensive staff. I do not think you would have seen the same growth this past season from the Rams offense. 

I think Gruden has his head up his ass.  Cousins isn’t his guy.    

[HT02]

On 2/2/2018 at 9:56 AM, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, difference in philosophy.   Succeeding the NFL is brutally difficult, and there isn't one formula.   

 

I've said it before:  I'd love to be sitting the room, listening to McBeane talk about this stuff.   I'd love to know what they're thinking.   

 

Me too, I like and respect these guys and it would be great to know.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 2/3/2018 at 6:57 AM, 26CornerBlitz said:

Of course people want a great QB, but the problem is he isn't that. 

 

How will you tell a great QB, before he 's on a great team?

[26CornerBlitz]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How will you tell a great QB, before he 's on a great team?

 

I have certainly seen great QBs play for less than great teams. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 2/6/2018 at 9:23 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How will you tell a great QB, before he 's on a great team?

because he said so        There are a lot of great talent evaluators on message boards 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

‘I have real suspicions about how far can the guy take me‘

The likely teams in the mix are the Denver Broncos, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. The Buffalo Bills are an outside possibility should they part ways with incumbent starter Tyrod Taylor.

 

“Is Kirk Cousins good enough or is Kirk Cousins the most available guy?” Kirwan, a former NFL club executive, said. “He just lost his (contractual) foundation, to me, so I’ll be real interested to see who jumps up. (Derek) Carr got the money because people believe in Oakland that he can get you to a Super Bowl. Do you believe Kirk Cousins can get you to a Super Bowl? I have real suspicions about how far can the guy take me.

 

‘Can you look your owner in the face and say, ‘This guy’s going to take us to the Super Bowl”

“My owner used talk to me like this. He’d go, ‘Where are we going with him?’ Can you look your owner in the face and say, ‘This guy’s going to take us to the Super Bowl; that’s why we’re going to pay him this.'”

 

https://blog.siriusxm.com/pat-kirwan-says-49ers-had-no-choice-on-big-money-for-jimmy-garoppolo-but-doubts-kirk-cousins-gets-a-similar-deal/

[26CornerBlitz]