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Scot McCloughan on Kirk Cousins: "I Don't See Special" - Headed for UFA


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8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Can't read the data, but I'm not surprised. 

 

Thanks about Schaub.   

 

The real point is that you don't many shots at guys who have had success in the league.  

 

Heck, when Brees was a free agent, people were worried that he'd bust.  

 

Click on HBF's image and it will open up in a window where you can read it.

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5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Can't read the data, but I'm not surprised. 

 

I know, sorry.  If you click on the table, it opens in a new window (provided your settings allow this) which will be clearer and more readable

 

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks about Schaub.   

The real point is that you don't many shots at guys who have had success in the league.  

Heck, when Brees was a free agent, people were worried that he'd bust.  

 

Yes, exactly.  Brees became a FA because he had a torn-up rotator cuff and San Diego had a high-quality 1st round pick sitting on the bench behind him.  Cousins may become a FA (or cost Wash. a fortune) because McCloughan mishandled his contract when he had the option to sign him up.
 

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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Zay has the worst year a receiver has had in like the last 5 seasons by the advanced metrics (notice how far below anyone else he is graded). http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

 

The Bills CANNOT be counting on that guy. If he contributes it’s found money but he did nothing to inspire confidence. He was historically bad. 

Peterman's first game historically bad.  Zay's first season, historically bad.  Better hope the braintrust figures out offense.

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36 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Click on HBF's image and it will open up in a window where you can read it.

Thanks.

 

Now people will start arguing other things - wins, playoffs, etc.   But I start with the nunsserbers, because I've found that a broad range of stats don't lie.   You can cherry pick stats, but if you like at the most important stats, you generally find good correlation between the best players and good stats.   Passer rating does it all wrapped up into one number, but you can look at it individually and you get similar results.   

 

And here you have it.  Look at the guy's numbers - he's right in there with the guys who are in the second half of the top 10, right after Hall of Famers.   If he's putting up these numbers and not winning in Washington, what makes him worse than Stafford, who's putting up comparable numbers and not winning in Detroit?   I don't get it.

 

But it isn't up to me, or you.   It's up to Beane and McDermott.  If THEY think he's top 10, then I think the Bills should be serious bidders for the guy.   If they don't think he's top 10, they have to move on to another plan.  

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't know 26 that well, but I wouldn't dump on him that much.  

 

Just a mannerly, deserved 'poke' at 26CB from SBF.  Over in the Bridgewater thread 26CB is thrashing at me for asking him to justify his claim that TB is a much better QB than TT despite stats - how dare I question him, I should do my own research to prove his point!

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

As for Jimmy, I like his prospects, but he hasn't proven anything to me yet.   Paying him 25 is a much bigger risk than paying Cousins 25.

 

Concur

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

What he doesn't get is that Cousins is solidly in the range of 5th to 12th best QB in the league.   Look at his stats over the past three years.   Same as Stafford's, better than Newton's (who's really had only one good year).   People rave about Luck - Cousins has been better.  Matt Ryan's had one blowout year; otherwise, he's struggled to put up numbers as good as Cousins, and he's throwing to Julio Jones.   

 

Cousins isn't Rodgers, I know.   But look at the guys who are in the 12 to 20 range of QBs - Eli, Flacco, Taylor, Dalton.   I can't believe he wouldn't want Cousins over those guys. 

 

Oh, I agree.   

 

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3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But it isn't up to me, or you.   It's up to Beane and McDermott.  If THEY think he's top 10, then I think the Bills should be serious bidders for the guy.   If they don't think he's top 10, they have to move on to another plan.  

He's not top ten, imo, Shaw.  He's definitely not a 30 million dollar a year qb, which is what he might end up getting.  Seems to me that would completely subvert the attempt to get the cap to a nice, friendly place for us.  Don't know much about the oline draft, but guys on offense this team could use:  Baker Mayfield, Sony Michel, Christian Kirk.

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20 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

He will stay in Washington, wait and see.

 

All this media hype for nothing

 

He may.  Of course, if they franchise him, he'll have no choice.  But to franchise him would seriously hinder their ability to build a roster.

They've built themselves a dilemma, all self inflicted

 

But if he doesn't, and it can be done, I would sign him, no question, and keep our draft picks to put pieces around him.

 

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

He's not top ten, imo, Shaw.  He's definitely not a 30 million dollar a year qb, which is what he might end up getting.  Seems to me that would completely subvert the attempt to get the cap to a nice, friendly place for us.  Don't know much about the oline draft, but guys on offense this team could use:  Baker Mayfield, Sony Michel, Christian Kirk.

 

Who would you call top ten, then, and based upon what criteria?

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Peterman's first game historically bad.  Zay's first season, historically bad.  Better hope the braintrust figures out offense.

It’s a little scary that the 2 offensive skill players selected were atrocious. Couple that with the fact that they were comfortable with Tolbert the #2 back and it gives you pause. Hopefully they can address that this offseason.

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18 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

He will stay in Washington, wait and see.

 

All this media hype for nothing

He might stay in Washington, but I think there are several things causing him to leave, and in particular making Buffalo look like a good choice. 

 

First, everything suggests that he's unhappy with Washington.   Sure, it's history, but that stuff eats at people.   He's had to earn the job, over and over again.   I can't remember a franchise being so reluctant to keep a high-performing QB in the starting job.   I think that bothers him.   

 

Second, he's a mid-western, straight-laced guy.   The east coast is different from Indiana and Michigan, and I wouldn't be surprised if he just doesn't like it there. 

 

Third, he's a serious Christian.   Washington doesn't have much of an ecclesiastical feel to it.   Although it's not likely to drive his decision, but in the back of his mind, something about having a serious Christian coach probably appeals to him.   (Enter McDermott.)

 

Fourth, I don't know what Gruden is like, but we know what McDermott is like.   It's all about the process.   He has a process for everything, a reason for everything he does and everything he wants his team to do.   That's who Cousins is - constantly planning, organizing, following a process to get where he wants to go. 

 

Fifth, Buffalo is the midwest, where he's from. 

 

Sixth, he seems like the kind of guy who could buy into the mission - finally win a Lombardi for Buffalo.   

 

Seventh, unlike Washington, the Bills don't have an !@#$ owner.   The Bills' owners are serious, down-to-earth people who genuinely care about people and show it.   That will appeal to Cousins.  

 

So, yes, Cousins may very well stay in DC.   But if he really wanted to stay in DC, he would have had a contract by now.   I think he wants to go.   And I think Buffalo may very well be attractive to him.  

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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Who would you call top ten, then, and based upon what criteria?

I'm sure there are folks who go by quantifiable metrics.  That can be helpful; I'm not dismissing analytics.  But I don't spend time on that, so I can't offer that kind of criteria.  Nor am I an expert, just a fan on a message board.  I'll leave off fellas like Brady, Brees, Rodgers who are elite and future HOF guys.  To me, a guy like Romo was borderline top ten.  He was top ten if you discount playoff failures.  Current crop, I think a guy like Carr is top ten, though this year he was not.  I don't know if that was injury or not.  Cousins has decent numbers.  He might fall in top ten by criteria that just looks at completion percentage and yardage.  OTOH, he doesn't seem clutch.  I don't think he elevates the play of those around him.  I think he's a pretty good qb, but not worth the price tag he will likely garner.

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

So, yes, Cousins may very well stay in DC.   But if he really wanted to stay in DC, he would have had a contract by now.   I think he wants to go.   And I think Buffalo may very well be attractive to him.  

Seems to me I recollect his coach making rather snide comments about him recently.  I don't think Gruden would have done that if Washington planned on trying to keep him.  And I guess that this implies Cousins probably is not keen to stay there either.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

He's not top ten, imo, Shaw.  He's definitely not a 30 million dollar a year qb, which is what he might end up getting.  Seems to me that would completely subvert the attempt to get the cap to a nice, friendly place for us.  Don't know much about the oline draft, but guys on offense this team could use:  Baker Mayfield, Sony Michel, Christian Kirk.

It's all about whether he's top 10 or not, and I get that people disagree.   But if he is top 10, then someone will pay upwards of 30 AND IT WILL BE THE RIGHT DECISION.   It may not work out, in which case you have a cap problem for a while, but if he's good but not at the top of the league, the fact that you're paying him $5 million more than he should get doesn't matter.   He has more impact on the game than the two guys you'd get for that $5 million.  

 

One thing is sure - he's getting a big deal.   

 

 

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm sure there are folks who go by quantifiable metrics.  That can be helpful; I'm not dismissing analytics.  But I don't spend time on that, so I can't offer that kind of criteria.  Nor am I an expert, just a fan on a message board.  I'll leave off fellas like Brady, Brees, Rodgers who are elite and future HOF guys.  To me, a guy like Romo was borderline top ten.  He was top ten if you discount playoff failures.  Current crop, I think a guy like Carr is top ten, though this year he was not.  I don't know if that was injury or not.  Cousins has decent numbers.  He might fall in top ten by criteria that just looks at completion percentage and yardage.  OTOH, he doesn't seem clutch.  I don't think he elevates the play of those around him.  I think he's a pretty good qb, but not worth the price tag he will likely garner.

Seems to me I recollect his coach making rather snide comments about him recently.  I don't think Gruden would have done that if Washington planned on trying to keep him.  And I guess that this implies Cousins probably is not keen to stay there either.

Romo's a good comparison.   Cousins has comparable stats for Romo's early years.   

 

Carr looked pretty weak sometimes this season.   I wouldn't be too quick to bet on him.    

 

It's not an easy call.  

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5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's all about whether he's top 10 or not, and I get that people disagree.   But if he is top 10, then someone will pay upwards of 30 AND IT WILL BE THE RIGHT DECISION.   It may not work out, in which case you have a cap problem for a while, but if he's good but not at the top of the league, the fact that you're paying him $5 million more than he should get doesn't matter.   He has more impact on the game than the two guys you'd get for that $5 million.  

 

One thing is sure - he's getting a big deal.   

 

 

I would rather spend FA money bolstering OL and DL and try and get a young, cost controlled qb with franchise qb potential who can play for fifteen years.  But see, I like Mayfield and I think you can get him without sacrificing all your draft capital to move up and get him; but you will have to move up, imo.

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4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He's a product of high volume passing attempts in schemes designed by Sean McVay and Jay Gruden that greatly padded his statistics.  He isn't a high level decision maker with great accuracy who makes his teammates better. The following are all QBs I'd rather have instead of him:

 

Rodgers
Brady
Brees
Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson

Jimmy Garoppolo
Phillip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Cam Newton

Appreciate that you take the time to answer how you feel and your opinion.  Many people don't even do that.  I agree with most of the QBs you have listed that I would rather have than Cousins.  Thing is that at least 4 of those QBs are like once in a lifetime you got damn lucky to find type QBs.  Those are ones that if you are waiting to hit on you are going to wait forever.  There are probably 4 more on that list that I would call better.  A couple, I would say are too early to tell. Then the rest I would say are about the same. 

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

If you did sign Cousins you would still have to upgrade WR or what's the point? I suppose KB is an upgrade once healthy. Zay maybe. You need at least one more.

If they signed Cousins they have 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.  Surely they can find a receiver or are there no receivers in this draft?  I cant answer that because I don't watch college football.

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Also, I pump the breaks on Garoppolo.  Sure he looked decent but to sit there and claim he is better than Cousins already is ridiculous to me.  He played in 6 games this season and has 7 TDs to 5 INTs.  I'm sure he had some good highlights... but he turned the ball over almost as much as he scored and that's never good.  There have been many QBs that looked good after 6 games and went on to be terrible backups or out.  Cousins has done well for a few years, not just a few games.

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I would rather spend FA money bolstering OL and DL and try and get a young, cost controlled qb with franchise qb potential who can play for fifteen years.  But see, I like Mayfield and I think you can get him without sacrificing all your draft capital to move up and get him; but you will have to move up, imo.

 

The path you described is definitely an option that I would hope Beane and McD are considering that and all the others.

You can hit and hit big with this OR you have to accept the risk that it will not work out that way.

 

Every one who thinks rationally can see that.  Let's say in 2018 Mayfield goes 6-10 (struggles some like expected).  No big deal.

2019 things get better and the team goes 8-8,  Great, we are on the right path.  2020 comes and it's 8-8.

Now what?  TSW is screaming for McD's head and .......................................

 

Hindsight will say............should of bundled all the picks it took to get Darnold (for example).  The guy is tearing it up in 'wherever.

 

Or, Cousins went to the Jets and they just won the AFC East in 2019.

 

These 3 "options" concerning a QB all have risk and reward.  My fervent hope is that Beane and McD have a coherent plan (process if you will).

Whatever they choose, I really hope they are flexible enough to recognize a mistake and have options to move on.

 

When it comes to the QB FA market, what Shaw, others and I are saying, 28 million (what I think Cousins will sign for) is the fair market value.

If OBD signed Cousins and it does not work out for the best, they better have thought of that and get the team out of it as soon as possible.

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm sure there are folks who go by quantifiable metrics.  That can be helpful; I'm not dismissing analytics.  But I don't spend time on that, so I can't offer that kind of criteria.  Nor am I an expert, just a fan on a message board.  I'll leave off fellas like Brady, Brees, Rodgers who are elite and future HOF guys.  To me, a guy like Romo was borderline top ten.  He was top ten if you discount playoff failures.  Current crop, I think a guy like Carr is top ten, though this year he was not.  I don't know if that was injury or not.  Cousins has decent numbers.  He might fall in top ten by criteria that just looks at completion percentage and yardage.  OTOH, he doesn't seem clutch.  I don't think he elevates the play of those around him.  I think he's a pretty good qb, but not worth the price tag he will likely garner.

 

I "get it" that people distrust stats and like to perform the "eyeball test" - and it's probably, truth be told, done by experts as well.  One can outsmart oneself with stats at times.

 

But "top 10" is still a quantifiable metric in that if one thinks there are 10 guys better, one should be able to name them? 

 

Some people would say that Romo was not "clutch", counting playoff failures.  In truth, I subscribe to the notion that whether or not a player is "clutch" and elevates the play of those around him, in good part depends upon whether those around him have play to be elevated - Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown, Kelly to Thomas or Reed, Any QB with a hand on the end of his arm to Larry Fitzgerald etc.  One can outsmart oneself with eyeballs over stats at times, too (eg Rob Johnson)

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I would rather spend FA money bolstering OL and DL and try and get a young, cost controlled qb with franchise qb potential who can play for fifteen years.  But see, I like Mayfield and I think you can get him without sacrificing all your draft capital to move up and get him; but you will have to move up, imo.

 

That is definitely a path to consider.  I too would prefer them to perform a modest trade up over a "draft capital spending spree".   But if the Bills choose that and want to continue on the upward trend, they need to spend at least some of that FA money bringing in a vet QB who can take the snaps if the rookie needs to learn for a year, and they need to be prepared to take several shots on drafting that "franchise QB potential guy" in the 1-2 round over the next years.

 

I don't know enough about college FB to have an opinion on Mayfield.  He certainly has some gaudy numbers. 

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5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

[responding to list

Rodgers
Brady
Brees
Roethlisberger
Matt Ryan
Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson

Jimmy Garoppolo
Phillip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Cam Newton]

 

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger are Hall of Fame QBs.   If you're objective is to get a Hall of Fame QB, then Cousins is not for you.   You're only chance is to draft one, which means you have to go all in on trading up every few years until you hit one.   I don't think that's a good strategy for building a team, but if that's what you want, I won't argue with you.

 

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roeth, Ryan, and Rivers are at the top of the game, no question.  That's six.

 

Wentz and Garappolo are the young hotshots.  They may be great.  They may fade.  They fall into the bin of "not yet proven".  Would I rather have them, sure, because they're young and look as though they're trending up.

 

And after that, IMHO, is where the "eyeball test" alone can be deceptive.  Wilson, without a lot of team around him this year, struggled.  If you don't like stats, you can see it in the Seasnakes games.  Without a strong run game and good line, they struggled to get something going.  Wilson is not the pocket passer who can carry a team on his arm, if that's what we're seeking.  Neither is Cam Newton.  They can both extend plays with their feet and produce miracles, but strong passing all game may take you further as a steady diet.  That's the "eyeball test", but if you like stats, neither Wilson nor Newton average much over 230 ypg in their careers, Wilson's completion percentage is a good 2% lower than the top guys and 1.5% lower than Cousins.  Newton's is not good - career less than 59%. 

 

Stafford has a great arm and just got paid - but if you're speaking of a guy who's a product of a high-volume passing attack, he would be the poster child most years.  His completion percentage is way lower than Cousins and his YPA are a full 0.5 yd lower than Cousins, and his TD/INT ratio is exactly the same.

 

Opinions can vary, but to put Newton, Stafford, and arguably Wilson ahead of Cousins as a QB is certainly very debatable.  It can't really be defended on stats.  Wilson is the only one of the three I'd rather have, and that's because I don't have a problem with a run-first or run-centric offense.  Expect him to be a pocket passer and he'll give you fits.

 

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Garoppolo is unproven.   Stafford hasn't outplayed Cousins.   Cousins actually is a better quarterback than Newton.  

It leaves Cousins where I've said he is - not a Hall of Famer but a top 10 quarterback in the current NFL.  

 

We seem to agree

 

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I just don't know where you're getting this conclusion that he isn't a good QB.   What do you want from the guy?   

 

Ha ha that's my question for McCloughan.  And probably Cousins and his agent's question to the Washington FO.

 

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