Taylor's value in 2017 was mostly about 2 things, one being 3rd down

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

There usually isn’t context with his posts. It’s generally just raw stats over analyzed.

 

 

this^

 

I'm really glad we're in but it was not solely because of taylor yet the OP still feels the need to prop him up.

 

win the next two games, due to him carrying the team, not the defense or special teams being the main factor, then maybe you can prop him up. otherwise, nothing special with the 3rd down conversion stats.

 

only winning two games against above .500 teams (falcons, chiefs) is not impressive, at all. 

 

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm still pretty shocked we won 4 out of our last 6 because we only scored 7 offensive TD's in that span.

That's just a shade of over 1 TD a game.  

 

[twoandfourteen]

27 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

This is where people get discombobulated. 

 

The Taylorites want to use the argument in favor of their guy but not the other.   It's the EJ discussion all over again.  They will latch onto a single game and use it as their basis of fact.  Yet when we try to present that information to them, it rubs them wrong way and "tempers flare". 

 

We all have seen or discusses Taylor's games over the past 3 seasons.   He is exactly who he was in his scouting report.  

 

Nate sucked against the Chargers, EJ sucked against the Jags in London, but they  somehow forget the multiple  sub 50 QB ratings from TT.  

 

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes, yes, and yes.  Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts.  This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense.  Taylor is too conservative.  I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that.  Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good.  His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's.  I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee.  Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes.  All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it.

Back on page one I posted a whole article done specifically on that.  It essentially says we are averaging 3rd and long much more often and the worse the recievers the worse he has done.  I doubt anyone is reading it, but it's there.

You keep mixing scoring and yardage stats .......... they mean completely different things.  I don't need to change your mind so I'm not going to carry on. 

 

I'm not mixing them at all.  The game of football is played on a field measured  by yards.  The less you move the ball, the less likely you are to score.  That's our problem specifically in the passing game.  You don't score by punting all the time and we punted a lot....the highest percentage of 3 and outs in the league.  We don't move the ball in the air very well at all.  We move the ball on the ground very well.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

My bucket list is to watch a game with you.  

Thanks but you'd be disappointed. 

[Mango]

18 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes, yes, and yes.  Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts.  This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense.  Taylor is too conservative.  I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that.  Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good.  His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's.  I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee.  Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes.  All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it.

Back on page one I posted a whole article done specifically on that.  It essentially says we are averaging 3rd and long much more often and the worse the recievers the worse he has done.  I doubt anyone is reading it, but it's there.

You keep mixing scoring and yardage stats .......... they mean completely different things.  I don't need to change your mind so I'm not going to carry on. 

 

 

Apologies, I missed the 2nd post on it. 

 

TT's top two receivers are exactly the same as last year. Clay and Shady. So I am not sure I buy that argument. Sammy was never really utilized either. 

 

What is really concerning looking at the numbers is that catch% seems to be way down. Shady is down 10% points alone. Kind of weird. I don't have an answer, but curious of others thoughts on that. 

 

2016 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2016.htm

 

2017

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2017.htm

[Bangarang]

39 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Kirk Cousins put up 4000 yards with: 

• Jamison Crowder
• Terelle Pryor (for 9 games)
• Vernon Davis
• Josh Doctson
• Ryan Grant (who I honestly thought was the RB from Green Bay, but then realized that this is a different Ryan Grant)

CJ Beathard (204.3 yds/gm) & Jimmy Garappolo (260.0 yds/gm) put up better passing numbers with: 

• Marquise Goodwin
• Louis Murphy
• George Kittle
• Pierre Garcon (for 8 games)
• Trent Taylor
• Aldrick Robinson

Washed up, old Eli Manning went for 231.2 yds/gm throwing to: 

• Sterling Shepard
• Evan Engram
• Roger Lewis
• Tavarres King
• Odell Beckham (for 4 games)

 

Now, spare us all the microscopic breakdown of Louis Murphy vs Deonte Thompson. I don't really care. The point is that there are plenty of teams working with less-than-ideal WR/TE groups and they are able to somehow manage a functional and barely competent passing game. 

 

I don't think anyone wants or expects the "greatest show on turf" from Tyrod Taylor. But it's not too much to ask to hit a receiver in stride or maybe at least present the threat of a passing attack. He's started 43 games and 23 of them are under 200 yards passing. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You make a reasonable point. Tyrod has had and currently has weapons to throw to. He’s just not good at throwing to his WRs. We’ve seen other QBs whom most would consider worse than Tyrod move the ball with equal or lesser talent at WR. People will instead latch onto his low INT number because that’s really all he has. He played in every game and threw 14 TDs. That’s pathetic. Consider this, a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson played in 6 games and still finished with more TDs than TT had all year. 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Bangarang

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks but you'd be disappointed. 

 

I'm assuming you would be tempted to hold my hand during the game?

You'll then use the excuse it's cold outside and then I will reiterate to you that we are in a dome at 72 degrees.

4 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

You make a reasonable point. Tyrod has had and currently has weapons to throw to. He’s just not good at throwing to his WRs. We’ve seen other QBs whom most would consider worse than Tyrod move the ball with equal or lesser talent at WR. People will instead latch onto his low INT number because that’s really all he has. He played in every game and threw 14 TDs. That’s pathetic. Consider this, a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson played in 6 games and still finished with more TDs than TT had all year. 

 

A perfect example of this is when it was 2nd and 15 against the Pats, Taylor threw a quick slant to Mike Tolbert....the slowest guy on the field.

They specifically talked about this play on WGR with Sal C.  In his opinion, the play was originally designed for McCoy but he was out that series.  So Tolbert came in.  Taylor was going to throw it to that RB no matter who it was....he already made up his mind.

Tony Romo was the commentator.  After that throw, he said he didn't understand it.  You need to let the play develop on a 2nd an long and not quickly get rid of it to a slower RB.

[Maine-iac]

So why did we score almost 400 points last year?  If we are running so well this year that's not it.  Did we throw it so much better last year?  If it's just yards we should be scoring almost the same since the rushing attack is great like you say.   

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

 

 

Then we have the case of Tyrod Taylor, whom Buffalo benched this week. Taylor actually ranked 10th in conversion rate (42.4 percent) even though he had the fourth-highest need yards (8.7). His ALEX dropped to -0.1 this season, ranked 29th. We've seen this continued change in Taylor's game. In his first season with Buffalo, his ALEX was +4.5, which ranked second in the NFL. It dropped to +2.3 in 2016, but still good enough for seventh in the league, and he was better at converting plays. Taylor's conversion rate was actually a career best this year, but alas he is benched after the Bills allowed 81 points in two losses. A big problem this year was the massive changes at wide receiver. Taylor was targeting running back LeSean McCoy more than anyone on third down, and those 16 targets produced a -10.9 ALEX. In 2016, Taylor's go-to targets on third down were deep threats Marquise Goodwin (+6.2 ALEX) and Sammy Watkins (+7.1 ALEX). Both of those receivers, as well as Robert Woods (+1.4 ALEX), are in the NFC West this year.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/alex/2017/2017-alex-midseason-report

 

 

 

It's right there in black and white ........... if anyone cares.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Maine-iac said:

So why did we score almost 400 points last year?  If we are running so well this year that's not it.  Did we throw it so much better last year?  If it's just yards we should be scoring almost the same since the rushing attack is great like you say.   

 

 

You're making over complicating this when you don't have to.

Our running game is good this year, it was excellent last year.

Our passing game was very poor this year, it was below average last year.

 

2017 total offense:  4,842 and 28 TD's.

2016 total offense: 5,666 and 46 TD's.

 

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Again, those statistics don't tell the whole story.(Per usual) The old saying. Statistics can be manipulated any which way you want them to be. 

 

This goes back to the Bills doing COMPLETELY different things on offense when they get a lead.

 

They go ultra conservative and basically play offense to punt the ball and rely on their defense to hold the lead. It's been the strategy all year. To the Bills and McDermotts credit, it's got them to the playoffs. 

 

 

 

Nope.  So you're saying we score 1 TD and McDermott is satisfied LOL?  Then why did he say scoring points have been a problem?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Definately on defense I would.  Rex couldn't stop the run or the pass.  McDermott seems very good at pass coverage and until trading Dareus we were good at stuffing the run also.  The key is always keeping points off the board.

Can we stop the run well enough to make that work?  This is where that Dareus trade may bite us in the butt, this year anyways.

 

I think you stack the box with 7 and make Bortles beat your secondary- the unquestionable strength of this defense. 

 

If Blain Gabbett and a washed up AP can beat this team... and Mariota and crew... Bills have a legitimate shot. 

[Maine-iac]

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Taylor actually ranked 10th in conversion rate (42.4 percent) even though he had the fourth-highest need yards (8.7).

 

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Taylor's go-to targets on third down were deep threats Marquise Goodwin (+6.2 ALEX) and Sammy Watkins (+7.1 ALEX). Both of those receivers, as well as Robert Woods (+1.4 ALEX), are in the NFC West this year.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

We've seen this continued change in Taylor's game. In his first season with Buffalo, his ALEX was +4.5, which ranked second in the NFL. It dropped to +2.3 in 2016, but still good enough for seventh in the league, and he was better at converting plays.

 

14 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Taylor's conversion rate was actually a career best this year, but alas he is benched after the Bills allowed 81 points in two losses. A big problem this year was the massive changes at wide receiver.

Because people need it broken down for them.  ALEX = yards a player gets vs yards needed on any given third down.  Fact is the whole offense has been worse.  Despite what Royal is trying to sell the running game has been MUCH worse.  The passing game a little worse.  We can't run the ball with a lead and then we are asking Taylor to convert long third downs where the defense knows we have to throw for almost 9 yards on average.  We aren't popping big plays as much running and outside of Thompson we have no deep threat to speak of.   Acting like the troubles we have had on offense all fall on Taylor is just convenient packaging.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yup.

 

Again, the Bills approach changes when they have a lead. I have no idea why McDermott said that but he can't expect to score going run, run, pass/screen/draw and basically going on 15 to 20 play drives to get in the end zone. Thats a lot to ask of any offense.

 

 

 

So McDermott was lying when he said they have a problem scoring points LOL.  

He then makes a QB change because our passing was so poor.

Yep you're right Scott....he was absolutely satisfied with 1 TD per game.

 

This quote below is a lie right Scott?  

 

 “Well, there [are] legitimate concerns in terms of being able to score points [and] finishing drives,” McDermott said Tuesday. “Against good opponents sooner or later that's going to come back to get you.” “Yeah, we're looking at that and I know Rick [Dennison] and his staff continue to look hard at that....  

6 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

 

 

 

Because people need it broken down for them.  ALEX = yards a player gets vs yards needed on any given third down.  Fact is the whole offense has been worse.  Despite what Royal is trying to sell the running game has been MUCH worse.  The passing game a little worse.  We can't run the ball with a lead and then we are asking Taylor to convert long third downs where the defense knows we have to throw for almost 9 yards on average.  We aren't popping big plays as much running and outside of Thompson we have no deep threat to speak of.   Acting like the troubles we have had on offense all fall on Taylor is just convenient packaging.

 

They all don't fall on Taylor but he was a major reason why.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Royale with Cheese

[Maine-iac]

McCoy by halves.  I don't see how anyone can't find the second halves to not be a coaching thing.

 

WHEN WINNING	113	375	3.3	48	1	16	95	5.9	18	1	0	0

 

QUARTER = 1	76	349	4.6	37	2	19	145	7.6	24	0	0	0
QUARTER = 2	66	334	5.1	25	1	17	116	6.8	16	1	2	0
QUARTER = 3	75	245	3.3	32	0	11	110	10.0	39	0	0	0
QUARTER = 4	62	176	2.8	48	2	12	77	6.4	17	1	1	1

Edited January 3, 2018 by Maine-iac

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Where did I say he was lying? 

 

He's not being realistic if he expects to run the ball at will down the field in 15 to 20 play drives for Touchdowns.... which is essentially what the Bills try to do when they get a lead. Its infuriating and extremely boring to watch. But hey a win is a win. 

 

Keep up with me Scott.

You said "yup" when I said asked if McDermott was satisfied with 1 TD per game.  

Then I posted a quote where McDermott specifically states there's legitimate concerns with scoring points.   

Your statement and McDermott's are conflicting.  Conflicting means it's a state of opposition.  

So which one is the truth Scott.  McDermott is satisfied with 1 TD per game or not.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes, yes, and yes.  Watching us play prevent is some games drives me nuts.  This last Miami game was again pissing me off watching that defense.  Taylor is too conservative.  I don't hate him like some but I can't deny that.  Marrone had a much better pass rush and his defense is really good.  His running game also features a power back and scores a few more TD's.  I don't care what anyone says we miss Gillislee.  Not taking anything away from McCoy but Gillislee added that cut and go skip the east and west stuff that we need sometimes.  All that said I hope we beat them and Marrone can suck it.

 

Being a homer I'd like to believe that the Jags SOS  helped them get 10 wins.    Seems like a soft schedule. 

 

 

@ Texans	W
Titans	L
Ravens	W
@ JETS	L
@ PITT	W
Rams	L
@ Colts	W
Bengals	W
Chargers	W
@ Browns	W
@ Cards	L
Colts	W
Seahawks	W
Texans	W
49ers	L
Titans	L

4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

McCoy by halves.  I don't see how anyone can't find the second halves to not be a coaching thing.

 

WHEN WINNING	113	375	3.3	48	1	16	95	5.9	18	1	0	0

 

QUARTER = 1	76	349	4.6	37	2	19	145	7.6	24	0	0	0
QUARTER = 2	66	334	5.1	25	1	17	116	6.8	16	1	2	0
QUARTER = 3	75	245	3.3	32	0	11	110	10.0	39	0	0	0
QUARTER = 4	62	176	2.8	48	2	12	77	6.4	17	1	1	1

Unavoidable SACKS and throw away's because someone won't pull the trigger.  

Make him a QB.  Stop the run and cover people.   

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

McCoy by halves.  I don't see how anyone can't find the second halves to not be a coaching thing.

 

QUARTER = 1	76	349	4.6	37	2	19	145	7.6	24	0	0	0
QUARTER = 2	66	334	5.1	25	1	17	116	6.8	16	1	2	0
QUARTER = 3	75	245	3.3	32	0	11	110	10.0	39	0	0	0
QUARTER = 4	62	176	2.8	48	2	12	77	6.4	17	1	1	1

 

I do think it is a coaching thing but I don't think the problem is running it too much so much as it is running the same plays too often.  The 1st New England game was a classic example.  We ran a pitch play to Shady early in the game that got double digit yards and a first down.  We ran the same pitch play near the end of the Quarter and got 2 or 3 yards.  We went back to it again in the second half and got stopped behind the line for a big loss.  Same formation, same personnel, same play.  You can't do that unless you have a downright dominant offensive line that is just blowing people off the ball. Greg Roman (I say for the millionth time the best and most creative run game designer in the whole NFL) was fantastic at saying "okay that play worked we are going to hit them again with basically the same play", but being able to run it out of a slightly different formation or with different personnel.  I don't think Shady is performing worse in the 4th because we are running too much.... it is because by Qrtr 3 we are just running the same plays the defense has already seen multiple times. 

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, xRUSHx said:

Miracles happen, too bad it takes a few decades to happen once. Thank God for the D and Cinci. This miracle happened in spite of Tyrod not because of.

 

I will be enjoying the game in Jacksonville watching it live while gladly drinking beer and eating some crow wishing Tyrod isn't forced to be a QB while our D once again carries us to victory.

 Go Bills

You are so lame

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

He's satisfied with winning. He cant possibly think the Bills strategy of becoming extremely conservative and predictable on offense has nothing to do with the fact that they are having trouble scoring points when leading. 

 

 

 

This is a perfect example of avoiding answering the question.  It was a yes or no question.  

If he thought the immediate problem was Dennsion, he would have fired Dennison and not bench Taylor.  But he benched Taylor and took a risk with Peterman because he wanted to get something out of our offense and being one dimensional was killing us.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is a perfect example of avoiding answering the question.  It was a yes or no question.  

If he thought the immediate problem was Dennsion, he would have fired Dennison and not bench Taylor.  But he benched Taylor and took a risk with Peterman because he wanted to get something out of our offense and being one dimensional was killing us.

I think (just my opinion) that McD thought Peterman suited the offense in place better so the switch was made.   Rather then revamp an entire offense to fit one player he tried to insert one player into a already installed offense.

 

The problem was Peterman was just not ready.

[Maine-iac]

6 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Being a homer I'd like to believe that the Jags SOS  helped them get 10 wins.    Seems like a soft schedule. 

 

 

@ Texans	W
Titans	L
Ravens	W
@ JETS	L
@ PITT	W
Rams	L
@ Colts	W
Bengals	W
Chargers	W
@ Browns	W
@ Cards	L
Colts	W
Seahawks	W
Texans	W
49ers	L
Titans	L

Unavoidable SACKS and throw away's because someone won't pull the trigger.  

Make him a QB.  Stop the run and cover people.   

I've put it all out there for anyone who is looking. We are running like crap in the second half.  We are averaging averging damn near 3rd and 9 on the passing downs we are asking Taylor to convert and he is still converting at a top ten rate.  That said you aren't going to score if you are running that conservative an offense even if you convert a couple 3rd downs you only went 20 or 30 yards.  Taylor's splits are virtually the same ahead or behind 1 to 8 points and first half or second half.  What is much much different is the rushing stats.  We are much much worse at running the ball in the second half.