CBS SportsLine: Sorting through the AFC to Get to Six Playoff Teams

[26CornerBlitz]

CBS Sports: Sorting through the mess in the AFC to get to six teams

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By Jared Dubin
There are eight teams vying for four spots behind the front-running Patriots and Steelers

 

Two of the teams that eventually get to the postseason will be the winners of the West and South, which means the Titans, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders have more than one path to the dance than do the Ravens, Bills, and Bengals. The other two spots are completely up for grabs, though.

 

SportsLine's Stephen Oh ran some numbers for us, showing which of those eight teams have the best chance of winning their division and making the playoffs, as well as which teams have the best chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl -- or even be crowned champions. 

Edited November 29, 2017 by 26CornerBlitz

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Only the Bills would have two 1st rd picks that are both 8-8 records. You can't make this **** up.

[thenorthremembers]

6 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Only the Bills would have two 1st rd picks that are both 8-8 records. You can't make this **** up.

 

And this is why they never get better.  I like McBeane, but their entire premise of attempting to be good now and later doesn't work unless you are already in fact good.  I've seen the play too many times now, they will miss the playoffs by a game and have to hope a quarterback falls into the 15-20 range to move up without giving up the entire draft.

 

Remember when they didnt have enough ammo to move up to get Big Ben, and had to settle on J.P. Losman?

 

Edited November 29, 2017 by thenorthremembers

[quinnearlysghost88]

I saw the Jags 97.5% chance of making the playoffs, and I went to see who they beat, because I know they're riding a hot defense and a stud RB. Some easier opponents for sure with Indy, Browns, Bengals, Ravens (look at their wins, super underwhelming), and Houston. They do beat the Chargers, which is more than we can say. But then Pittsburgh?! I had to know how they lit them up for 30. Let's see: Bortles has 95 yards passing, no TDs and 1 INT. Nope. Two pick sixes. That's not a viable long-term strategy. 

 

The unfortunate thing is that this team is going to make the playoffs before you realize they're a pretender. Their remaining schedule includes Indy, Houston, and SF. With tough games against Seattle and the Titans. That's an easy 10-6 record. 

[thenorthremembers]

3 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I saw the Jags 97.5% chance of making the playoffs, and I went to see who they beat, because I know they're riding a hot defense and a stud RB. Some easier opponents for sure with Indy, Browns, Bengals, Ravens (look at their wins, super underwhelming), and Houston. They do beat the Chargers, which is more than we can say. But then Pittsburgh?! I had to know how they lit them up for 30. Let's see: Bortles has 95 yards passing, no TDs and 1 INT. Nope. Two pick sixes. That's not a viable long-term strategy. 

 

The unfortunate thing is that this team is going to make the playoffs before you realize they're a pretender. Their remaining schedule includes Indy, Houston, and SF. With tough games against Seattle and the Titans. That's an easy 10-6 record. 

 

They are this years Houston or Miami on a bit of a larger scale.   They are the AFC South Anomaly that gets to play Brissett, and Tom Savage for four wins this year, win 50% of your other games and you are in.   They will be lucky to win a playoff game, and unless they get a quarterback will be back to third or fourth place next year when Luck and Watson are back. 

[Kirby Jackson]

18 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Only the Bills would have two 1st rd picks that are both 8-8 records. You can't make this **** up.

That is pretty “Billsy.”

[RyanC883]

54 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Only the Bills would have two 1st rd picks that are both 8-8 records. You can't make this **** up.

 

that is funny.   Might have 2 picks in a row.  Hopefully we have an 8-8 pick and a much later pick after winning at least our first playoff game! 

 

There is value in all stages of the 1st round.  Carr and Rodgers were 2nd round picks.  White was what, #18 last year.  Fantastic pick.  

[SaviorPeterman]

Interesting numbers here, particularly the Bills playoff chances only dropping 4% with an expected loss to the Pats on Sunday:

 

Quote

The Bills currently have a 32 percent chance of getting to the playoffs. If they lose to the Patriots this weekend, their chances drop to only 28 percent. That's not a huge dip, but that's mostly because a loss to the Pats is expected and thus baked into their numbers already. (They play the Patriots again later this season, and a likely loss in that game is baked in as well. Assuming losses in both games, the Bills would likely have to sweep the Colts and Dolphins, plus get help elsewhere, in order to make the field.) If the Bills manage to score an upset, however, their chances of getting into the postseason skyrocket to 58 percent. 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

that is funny.   Might have 2 picks in a row.  Hopefully we have an 8-8 pick and a much later pick after winning at least our first playoff game! 

 

There is value in all stages of the 1st round.  Carr and Rodgers were 2nd round picks.  White was what, #18 last year.  Fantastic pick.  

 

If you mean Aaron Rodgers, he was a first rounder in the 20's.

Tre White?  He was taken at 27 I believe.

[26CornerBlitz]

50 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I saw the Jags 97.5% chance of making the playoffs, and I went to see who they beat, because I know they're riding a hot defense and a stud RB. Some easier opponents for sure with Indy, Browns, Bengals, Ravens (look at their wins, super underwhelming), and Houston. They do beat the Chargers, which is more than we can say. But then Pittsburgh?! I had to know how they lit them up for 30. Let's see: Bortles has 95 yards passing, no TDs and 1 INT. Nope. Two pick sixes. That's not a viable long-term strategy. 

 

The unfortunate thing is that this team is going to make the playoffs before you realize they're a pretender. Their remaining schedule includes Indy, Houston, and SF. With tough games against Seattle and the Titans. That's an easy 10-6 record. 

 

The Jags should get in rather easily despite maybe the worst non-injury starting QB in the league.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Only the Bills would have two 1st rd picks that are both 8-8 records. You can't make this **** up.

 

Well to find the silver lining....I thought after the first 5 games of the season, KC's pick would have been between 28-32.  They looked that good.

Now...it's looking to be around 10 or so.

[Chadwick Bay Chad]

We will sign cousins.  He has ties to wny

[quinnearlysghost88]

4 hours ago, SaviorPeterman said:

Interesting numbers here, particularly the Bills playoff chances only dropping 4% with an expected loss to the Pats on Sunday:

 

 

I love how they say if we upset the Pats our chances of playoffs SKYROCKET!!!! to 58% haha. What a skyrocket. I was expecting like 81%.

[BuffaloMatt]

Why not us?

[Boatdrinks]

9 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

And this is why they never get better.  I like McBeane, but their entire premise of attempting to be good now and later doesn't work unless you are already in fact good.  I've seen the play too many times now, they will miss the playoffs by a game and have to hope a quarterback falls into the 15-20 range to move up without giving up the entire draft.

 

Remember when they didnt have enough ammo to move up to get Big Ben, and had to settle on J.P. Losman?

 

Well that's not really what happened, or even why they never got much better. They had the ammo required to get Big Ben, and even had a trade worked out with HOU that would land them the QB. What screwed it up was DeAngelo hall got drafted and HOU was spooked that they might not get their guy ( Dunta Robinson) and cancelled the deal last minute. There wasn't time to work anything out with another team. That's just bad luck. They've got more ammo now with two firsts and next years first in play as well. The problem was settling for JP Losman instead of waiting until the next year, when they could have had Rodgers. Most of the Bills issues have been panicking and taking guys that weren't really very good to begin with (JP, Manuel) instead of letting the draft come to them or moving up to get a QB instead of say , a WR. They just haven't placed any value on the position, and have suffered for it. Sure, they didn't have a high enough pick to draft Cam Newton. Their problem hasn't really been draft position as much as poor decision making and lack of strategy . 

[MiltonWaddams]

10 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Only the Bills would have two 1st rd picks that are both 8-8 records. You can't make this **** up.

Although you are, very sadly, absolutely correct and I see the need for at least one high draft pick to grab that QB, I have long ago reconciled myself to the fact that we chher for mediocrity as well as anyone. The advantage is that at 8-8, we will still have a huge opportunity to draft two studs at positions of need that will come into a far better locker room than the poor saps that walk into Cleveland and New York next year. I must find solace somewhere....

[thenorthremembers]

8 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Well that's not really what happened, or even why they never got much better. They had the ammo required to get Big Ben, and even had a trade worked out with HOU that would land them the QB. What screwed it up was DeAngelo hall got drafted and HOU was spooked that they might not get their guy ( Dunta Robinson) and cancelled the deal last minute. There wasn't time to work anything out with another team. That's just bad luck. They've got more ammo now with two firsts and next years first in play as well. The problem was settling for JP Losman instead of waiting until the next year, when they could have had Rodgers. Most of the Bills issues have been panicking and taking guys that weren't really very good to begin with (JP, Manuel) instead of letting the draft come to them or moving up to get a QB instead of say , a WR. They just haven't placed any value on the position, and have suffered for it. Sure, they didn't have a high enough pick to draft Cam Newton. Their problem hasn't really been draft position as much as poor decision making and lack of strategy . 

 

Good post.  I'd never heard the back story on the Big Ben trade, just knew they didnt get it done.   On the Manuel point I am not sure they had a choice there.  Still think he was the best option in maybe one of the most horrendous quarterback classes of all time.  

[Gordio]

19 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I saw the Jags 97.5% chance of making the playoffs, and I went to see who they beat, because I know they're riding a hot defense and a stud RB. Some easier opponents for sure with Indy, Browns, Bengals, Ravens (look at their wins, super underwhelming), and Houston. They do beat the Chargers, which is more than we can say. But then Pittsburgh?! I had to know how they lit them up for 30. Let's see: Bortles has 95 yards passing, no TDs and 1 INT. Nope. Two pick sixes. That's not a viable long-term strategy. 

 

The unfortunate thing is that this team is going to make the playoffs before you realize they're a pretender. Their remaining schedule includes Indy, Houston, and SF. With tough games against Seattle and the Titans. That's an easy 10-6 record. 

 

 

I watched that whole Pitt/Jag game when I was in Vegas(they had it on the screen right next to the bills/cincy game at madalay Bay.  Big Ben was the worst I have ever seen him that day.  In fact I think he threw 2 picks 6's.  But he was really bad.