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Tyrod is tier 2 of NFL QBs: Ability, but not Inevitablity


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See, the Matt Ryan example seems a little off base. He's a guy who has had one or two down years in his whole career, and suddenly this down year is because he lost his OC that he hasn't even had that long?

 

I think it's more likely that whole team is reeling from getting their heart ripped out and Matt Ryan was bound to regress a little from his awesome year. Losing Shanny hurts too, but I don't think it's just that.

 

3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

But will he get over 5 pages in responses AND get the most likes in the thread?

 

go on record now!

Watch out now, NoSaint. If you lose the bet, you won't be allowed to post ANYTHING negative about Transplant for a whole week. Doesn't that sound fun?

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3 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Taylor is somewhere between the 15th to 20th best QB in the NFL.

 

A solid stop-gap.

 

Someday we'll land our Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott. Until then, Taylor is okay.

That is pretty much where I have him as well.....

 

I think what some people have a hard time wrapping their minds around is it is HARD to find the 15-20th best QB in the NFL......

 

Better would be great....but to discard a decent starting qb until you know you have better is well......no beueno

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12 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't like the breakdown. 

 

You need another tier between the Tier 1 "ultra elites" and the Tier 2 "most guys in the league".

 

There is another tier there of very good QBs who are categorically better than someone like Tyrod, but who are not the ultra elite Tier 1 guys either. 

 

Your way puts Tyrod in with Eli Manning and Flacco.  No way is Tyrod in the same tier, even if Flacco has looked pretty darned bad this year.  

 

Remember, Tyrod is the guy who would have sat on the bench for 500 years in Baltimore, because he is not Joe Flacco.

 

 

I might agree with your point, but not your examples.   Flacco's had one good year since 2010.  Eli's had 3.  They just haven't been very good for several years.   

 

There might be a tier between the elites and the decent QBs, but Flacco and Manning are no longer in it.  

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18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

All QBs need some circumstances, but for a small minute handful of QBs there was an inevitability that they'd be Franchise QBs purely based on their physical ability/ mental ability/ intangibles.

 

Tier 1 QBs are the Elite guys (Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are the only 3 absolutes up there with Big Ben probably creeping in, too) who can largely "carry a team," even though with Football being the ultimate team sport, these guys still needed a couple things to fall into place.  Brady would never have been Brady without the Hoodie... same for Brees & Payton.  I actually think Rodgers might be a slight step above those guys because I just think Rodgers and McCarthy have never jibed as well as the rest, but Rodgers had the circumstance of learning from one of the best in the game on the bench for 4 years and not feeling any pressure.  These guys are the generational, rare 1st ballot HOFers that Buffalo was so lucky to have once in Jim Kelly.  But they're rare.  Incredibly rare.  Previous to the 3 (maybe 4...?) guys above we've had maybe 2 other QBs we've seen in that category playing in the NFL since 2000 in Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. 

 

Tier 3 QBs are the guys who are often labelled as "journeymen," "fringe starters," or even "bridge QBs."  These are the guys defined by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown and Brian Hoyer over the span of their careers.  These are guys you want as your backup, but will suffer through them as your starter because they might pleasantly surprise you on occasion.

 

Tier 2 QBs are the vast majority of guys in the NFL and these are the guys who have the ability/capability to be/of being a Franchise QB, but unlike the tier 1 guys, it's not inevitable, or close to it the way those guys are.

 

This is where Tyrod Taylor sits.

 

There are plenty of guys in this category, some of them are probably the higher end of tier 2 like Ryan, Goff, and Wentz.  Some of them might be more in the middle like Cousins, Prescott, and Rivers. And others are on the lower end like Dalton, Flacco and Tannehill.  But they're all there in tier 2. 

 

The last 2 years for both Matt Ryan and Jared Goff exemplify this tier.  They require the right circumstances and, unlike the tier 1 guys, they need a combination of several of these circumstances to be what one might consider a "Franchise QB."  These circumstances typically are a combination of weapons in the passing game, a running game, offensive system, offensive play caller, and/or defense. 

 

Matt Ryan has always had the weapons over the span of his career (as a rookie he had an explosive running game with Michael Turner and a solid WR corps with one of the league's best WRs at the time in Roddy White and throughout his career he's had Tony Gonzales and Julio Jones and Davonte Freeman and so on) and he's also always had pretty good Offensive Coordinators/playcallers (Mike Mularkey, Dirk Koetter, Kyle Shanahan). Last year Matt Ryan had an MVP season and I remember all the "HE'S ELITE!!!" conversation.  Not to pat myself on the back too much, but I predicted that Ryan would take a pretty significant step back this season because I believed Shanahan was largely responsible for Ryan's season.  And look what's happened?  Ryan still looks like a starter but has come dropping out of any of the "Elite" dialogue anyone was having... it's pretty funny because I bet all those talking heads who were saying that (and there were A LOT!!!) just feel like idiots now.  It's not that Ryan is a bad QB.  He's not, he's good.  He's just not great the way those tier 1 guys are.  He still has good weapons there, so he's still gonna be good enough.

 

Jared Goff is like the exact opposite example of this.  Yeah, I know he was just a rookie last year, but he absolutely SUCKED last year.  Like he just looked really bad and the Rams looked foolish.  And keep in mind that this was with one of the better defenses in the league and also with one of the more talented RBs in the league (whose production also, ironically was terrible... consistent with this whole "OC help needed" theme, hmmm? 0:)) Then what happens?  The team hires a brilliant young offensive mind as a head coach and goes out and acquires talent at the WR position, much to Buffalo's chagrin.  And voila!!!  Do you guys honestly think Goff just magically became a different guy or is he seriously the beneficiary of a brilliant young offensive play caller and newly acquired (or differently utilized) Elite talent?  Yeah, I think it's the latter.

 

Taylor's in this tier, too.  These guys aren't good enough to overcome circumstances, and so far in his career, there have been more circumstances working against Taylor than a lot of the other guys in this tier, which might be the reason we move on from him after this year or, more likely, after next year.  But if some circumstances can start shaping up more in Taylor's favor, he's a guy who CAN be our Franchise QB.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think 'The Hoodie' has made Brady what he is. I think it's the other way around

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17 hours ago, Graybeard said:

I like this breakdown.

Now where do you put Eli? I've never thought of him as elite, but he has won the Superbowl.  An interesting contradiction.

 

Elli is streaky, and that makes him an enigma I think.  When he's on a hot streak, like he was the last time the Giants won the SB, he's definitely Tier 1 ... he carried that Giants team with his leadership and passing ability, masking a lot of their shortcomings much the way that Rodgers masks a lot of GB's shortcomings.  When he gets into a funk, though, like he seems to be this season, he sinks to Tier 3 ... and sometimes to the lower end of Tier 3.  Most of the time, though, he's probably a top-half Tier 2 guy ... and in clutch situations, if you can't have Rodgers or Brady, you might consider Eli ... he seems able to make clutch plays more often than you might think.

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40 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

That is pretty much where I have him as well.....

 

I think what some people have a hard time wrapping their minds around is it is HARD to find the 15-20th best QB in the NFL......

 

Better would be great....but to discard a decent starting qb until you know you have better is well......no beueno

He would be as good or better than Dak, Goff and a # of others given a proper OC and weapons.

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13 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't like the breakdown. 

 

You need another tier between the Tier 1 "ultra elites" and the Tier 2 "most guys in the league".

 

There is another tier there of very good QBs who are categorically better than someone like Tyrod, but who are not the ultra elite Tier 1 guys either. 

 

Your way puts Tyrod in with Eli Manning and Flacco.  No way is Tyrod in the same tier, even if Flacco has looked pretty darned bad this year.  

 

Remember, Tyrod is the guy who would have sat on the bench for 500 years in Baltimore, because he is not Joe Flacco.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I just don't see how you can lump clearly inferior players with clearly superior ones into such a huge category. Guys like Goff, right now, you don't know what you have. You don't know what you have with Marriota or Winston. Wentz looks like a franchise guy now but so did Nick Foles on the same team in basically the same circumstance. Guys like Eli were once franchise but are complete also rans now.

 

I think what you -- and some others -- are not seeing is the rationale for the OP's tiers, which is not based on how well a QB plays/has played so much as it's based on what a QB needs to have success.  There are some starting QBs who are just so talented that they'll shine even if playing with little or no support around them.  Those are the elite, Tier 1 guys.   Then there are some starting QBs who just are not talented enough to be starters no matter how much talent surrounds them ... these aren't journeymen but the backups, wannabees, and busts of various stripes from failed first rounders to UDFAs.  The OP really didn't address these guys ... they're probably Tier 4 since they're below the Tier 3.

 

Tier 3 guys can be a variety of guys: journeymen or aging starters or "bridge QBs" or refugees from Tier 4 who have a good run filling in for a missing starter.  They can even be first round QBs who are only playing because they're first rounders and their teams are deciding what to do about them.  They generally don't have a lot of success, frequently because they don't have the best talent or coaching around them but possibly because they've lost some of their ability or just have too many limitations.

 

Tier 2 guys are the ones who have enough talent to make lemonade if they're given enough lemon juice, sugar, and water.  If you've got only 3-5 guys in a tier, the spectrum from top to bottom is limited.  If you've got 10 or 15 guys in a tier, there's going to be a spectrum of talent among them.  It's hard to quantify because no 2 QBs are exactly the same.  It's easy to pick out the guys on the extremes, less so the guys towards the middle.  Then, too,  there are both young and old QBs in the group as well as QBs who've had lots of starting experience and those with limited experience as starters as well as first round picks who are usually given opportunities early that are not afforded to QBs drafted in the later rounds or who are UDFAs except in special circumstances.

 

All these QBs have enough talent to be starters of decent quality but their performance is much more dependent upon the team around them and/or the coaching situation. If they get into a good situation, they can frequently play like they're elite for stretches ... even a for a season or two... but when the team around them loses its own quality, their play tails off.  If there's a coaching change, they're more affected than the Tier 1 guys seem to be.  This group is the largest and the most diverse because in the salary cap era situations on teams can and do change dramatically from one season to the next ... even within the season depending upon injuries.  Coaching impacts teams -- and that's even more true for QBs than most other players -- far more than it did in the pre-salary cap era, too,  when the Cowboys could fleece Minnesota in the Herschel Walker trade and load up with so much talent in the draft that even Barry Switzer could "coach" them to a Super Bowl win.  

 

With crappy coaching and surrounded by limited talent, Alex Smith looked like a bust early on in his career.  When San Fran improved, he started to look better but he was dumped for a young QB who looked like the next big thing playing in an offensive system that not only highlighted his talents but also masked his deficiencies.  Even early on in KC, Smith was considered nothing special as a starter, a "game manager" or "journeyman".  Many would have likely consider him only a step or two above Ryan Fitzpatrick ... and then this season happened, and he's being talked about as an MVP candidate.

 

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Probably not long.  Bledsoe struggled the previous year and struggled early on the next year....then he got crushed by Lewis.

They were 5-13 with Belicheck before Brady took over.

 

Bledsoe was injured in the first or second game of the 2001 season, so it's a bit difficult to claim that he had "struggled early on the next year".

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9 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

 

I think what you -- and some others -- are not seeing is the rationale for the OP's tiers, which is not based on how well a QB plays/has played so much as it's based on what a QB needs to have success.  There are some starting QBs who are just so talented that they'll shine even if playing with little or no support around them.  Those are the elite, Tier 1 guys.   Then there are some starting QBs who just are not talented enough to be starters no matter how much talent surrounds them ... these aren't journeymen but the backups, wannabees, and busts of various stripes from failed first rounders to UDFAs.  The OP really didn't address these guys ... they're probably Tier 4 since they're below the Tier 3.

 

Tier 3 guys can be a variety of guys: journeymen or aging starters or "bridge QBs" or refugees from Tier 4 who have a good run filling in for a missing starter.  They can even be first round QBs who are only playing because they're first rounders and their teams are deciding what to do about them.  They generally don't have a lot of success, frequently because they don't have the best talent or coaching around them but possibly because they've lost some of their ability or just have too many limitations.

 

Tier 2 guys are the ones who have enough talent to make lemonade if they're given enough lemon juice, sugar, and water.  If you've got only 3-5 guys in a tier, the spectrum from top to bottom is limited.  If you've got 10 or 15 guys in a tier, there's going to be a spectrum of talent among them.  It's hard to quantify because no 2 QBs are exactly the same.  It's easy to pick out the guys on the extremes, less so the guys towards the middle.  Then, too,  there are both young and old QBs in the group as well as QBs who've had lots of starting experience and those with limited experience as starters as well as first round picks who are usually given opportunities early that are not afforded to QBs drafted in the later rounds or who are UDFAs except in special circumstances.

 

All these QBs have enough talent to be starters of decent quality but their performance is much more dependent upon the team around them and/or the coaching situation. If they get into a good situation, they can frequently play like they're elite for stretches ... even a for a season or two... but when the team around them loses its own quality, their play tails off.  If there's a coaching change, they're more affected than the Tier 1 guys seem to be.  This group is the largest and the most diverse because in the salary cap era situations on teams can and do change dramatically from one season to the next ... even within the season depending upon injuries.  Coaching impacts teams -- and that's even more true for QBs than most other players -- far more than it did in the pre-salary cap era, too,  when the Cowboys could fleece Minnesota in the Herschel Walker trade and load up with so much talent in the draft that even Barry Switzer could "coach" them to a Super Bowl win.  

 

With crappy coaching and surrounded by limited talent, Alex Smith looked like a bust early on in his career.  When San Fran improved, he started to look better but he was dumped for a young QB who looked like the next big thing playing in an offensive system that not only highlighted his talents but also masked his deficiencies.  Even early on in KC, Smith was considered nothing special as a starter, a "game manager" or "journeyman".  Many would have likely consider him only a step or two above Ryan Fitzpatrick ... and then this season happened, and he's being talked about as an MVP candidate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bledsoe was injured in the first or second game of the 2001 season, so it's a bit difficult to claim that he had "struggled early on the next year".

 

He was injured late in the 2nd game after throwing 28 passes.  

2000 was carrying over early into 2001.  

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3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He was injured late in the 2nd game after throwing 28 passes.  

2000 was carrying over early into 2001.  

 

Maybe, but nobody knows.   2000 was Belichick's first year as NE HC, and he spent that year evaluating and upgrading what he had.  Brady wasn't drafted with the idea that he was going to replace Bledsoe.  Drafting their backup QBs late in the draft or even signing an UDFA was generally how NE operated until they drafted Mallett in the third in 2011 and then Garoppollo in the second in 2014.  Brady could have been long gone back to Cali to be an accountant or something by the time the Pats parted with Bledsoe ...  Damn stupid Jests!  They haven't done anything right since 1969!

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1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

Maybe, but nobody knows.   2000 was Belichick's first year as NE HC, and he spent that year evaluating and upgrading what he had.  Brady wasn't drafted with the idea that he was going to replace Bledsoe.  Drafting their backup QBs late in the draft or even signing an UDFA was generally how NE operated until they drafted Mallett in the third in 2011 and then Garoppollo in the second in 2014.  Brady could have been long gone back to Cali to be an accountant or something by the time the Pats parted with Bledsoe ...  Damn stupid Jests!  They haven't done anything right since 1969!

 

Did you ever read the article where a Jets scout was begging the Front Office to draft Brady?

 

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/10/16/what-if-jets-scout-reportedly-begged-parcells-to-draft-tom-brady/

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2 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

See, the Matt Ryan example seems a little off base. He's a guy who has had one or two down years in his whole career, and suddenly this down year is because he lost his OC that he hasn't even had that long?

 

I think it's more likely that whole team is reeling from getting their heart ripped out and Matt Ryan was bound to regress a little from his awesome year. Losing Shanny hurts too, but I don't think it's just that.

 

 

Matt Ryan's last year was an anomaly over the span of his career.  It was head and shoulders better than his other years. 

 

You think a light just suddenly went on in Ryan's 9th year?

 

Plus, before Shanahan, Ryan had Mularkey, who has been another high level OC in the span of his career.

 

Ryan has always benefitted from a talented play caller.

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13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

These are reactionary tiers.

 

They are tiers that exist solely "in the moment" as safe picks.

 

Those 3 tiers are what those NFL QBs ultimately are rather than how we judge them.

 

Like with Goff, he'd be in your "too early to tell" category, but the reality is that he just is whatever he is.

 

Rich Gannon was always a talented QB, but he wasn't always throwing to Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. Suddenly, he looked like a Franchise QB.

 

That's why he's tier 2.

 

Nice breakdown.

 

I think TT is in tier 2 with potential to slip into a low 1st tier qb or high 3rd tier qb

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47 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

 

I think what you -- and some others -- are not seeing is the rationale for the OP's tiers, which is not based on how well a QB plays/has played so much as it's based on what a QB needs to have success.  There are some starting QBs who are just so talented that they'll shine even if playing with little or no support around them.  Those are the elite, Tier 1 guys.   Then there are some starting QBs who just are not talented enough to be starters no matter how much talent surrounds them ... these aren't journeymen but the backups, wannabees, and busts of various stripes from failed first rounders to UDFAs.  The OP really didn't address these guys ... they're probably Tier 4 since they're below the Tier 3.

 

Tier 3 guys can be a variety of guys: journeymen or aging starters or "bridge QBs" or refugees from Tier 4 who have a good run filling in for a missing starter.  They can even be first round QBs who are only playing because they're first rounders and their teams are deciding what to do about them.  They generally don't have a lot of success, frequently because they don't have the best talent or coaching around them but possibly because they've lost some of their ability or just have too many limitations.

 

Tier 2 guys are the ones who have enough talent to make lemonade if they're given enough lemon juice, sugar, and water.  If you've got only 3-5 guys in a tier, the spectrum from top to bottom is limited.  If you've got 10 or 15 guys in a tier, there's going to be a spectrum of talent among them.  It's hard to quantify because no 2 QBs are exactly the same.  It's easy to pick out the guys on the extremes, less so the guys towards the middle.  Then, too,  there are both young and old QBs in the group as well as QBs who've had lots of starting experience and those with limited experience as starters as well as first round picks who are usually given opportunities early that are not afforded to QBs drafted in the later rounds or who are UDFAs except in special circumstances.

 

All these QBs have enough talent to be starters of decent quality but their performance is much more dependent upon the team around them and/or the coaching situation. If they get into a good situation, they can frequently play like they're elite for stretches ... even a for a season or two... but when the team around them loses its own quality, their play tails off.  If there's a coaching change, they're more affected than the Tier 1 guys seem to be.  This group is the largest and the most diverse because in the salary cap era situations on teams can and do change dramatically from one season to the next ... even within the season depending upon injuries.  Coaching impacts teams -- and that's even more true for QBs than most other players -- far more than it did in the pre-salary cap era, too,  when the Cowboys could fleece Minnesota in the Herschel Walker trade and load up with so much talent in the draft that even Barry Switzer could "coach" them to a Super Bowl win.  

 

With crappy coaching and surrounded by limited talent, Alex Smith looked like a bust early on in his career.  When San Fran improved, he started to look better but he was dumped for a young QB who looked like the next big thing playing in an offensive system that not only highlighted his talents but also masked his deficiencies.  Even early on in KC, Smith was considered nothing special as a starter, a "game manager" or "journeyman".  Many would have likely consider him only a step or two above Ryan Fitzpatrick ... and then this season happened, and he's being talked about as an MVP candidate.

 

 

 

Great job summing up my points! :thumbsup:

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Transplantbillsfan. I think you have it backward  when you say Brady never would have been Brady without the Hoodie.

It should be the Hoodie never would have been the Hoodie without Brady. The Hoodie was 37-45 in 5 years as 

Cleveland Coach from 1991-1995  A failure until he got Brady in New England.

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5 minutes ago, Foreigner said:

Transplantbillsfan. I think you have it backward  when you say Brady never would have been Brady without the Hoodie.

It should be the Hoodie never would have been the Hoodie without Brady. The Hoodie was 37-45 in 5 years as 

Cleveland Coach from 1991-1995  A failure until he got Brady in New England.

 

I don't know.  Belichick had considerable success before he had Brady.  Belichick got those Browns to the playoffs in 1994 ... 11-5 with Vinnie Testaverde as his QB who had never led a team to a winning season in his previous 7 NFL seasons. As Giants DC under Parcells, he was the defensive mastermind behind Parcells' playoff success, including his SB success.  Belichick was NE's assistant HC under Parcells when the Patriots lost the SB after the 1996 season.  He followed Parcells to the Jests and he was Assistant HC when the Jests lost the AFC Championship game in 1998 ... with Vinnie Testaverde at QB no less.  After Belichick left the Jests to coach NE, Parcells never coached another playoff win.

 

Who knows what Brady would have been with another HC and another coaching scheme?

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7 hours ago, yungmack said:

And if Bledsoe hadn't been injured, how long would Brady have sat on the bench?

 

And how many games would Tommy win if he played on a team that didn't cheat?

4 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

 

I think it's more likely that whole team is reeling from getting their heart ripped out and Matt Ryan was bound to regress a little from his awesome year.

 

It's called a Super Bowl Hangover.

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17 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Don't like the breakdown. 

 

You need another tier between the Tier 1 "ultra elites" and the Tier 2 "most guys in the league".

 

There is another tier there of very good QBs who are categorically better than someone like Tyrod, but who are not the ultra elite Tier 1 guys either. 

 

Your way puts Tyrod in with Eli Manning and Flacco.  No way is Tyrod in the same tier, even if Flacco has looked pretty darned bad this year.  

 

Remember, Tyrod is the guy who would have sat on the bench for 500 years in Baltimore, because he is not Joe Flacco.

 

 

Yep. Tier 2 is actually a smaller group of guys than the OP mentions. It's not like there are the 4 elites and then everyone else. Tyrod is NOT tier two in any realistic measure unless you include a wide swath of abilities in " tier 2". Tyrod is probably upper half of tier 3 by most metrics. Saying Wentz and Taylor are both in tier 2 is crazy. One could be close to elite and the other won't ever be. Guess which is which? 

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

I don't know.  Belichick had considerable success before he had Brady.  Belichick got those Browns to the playoffs in 1994 ... 11-5 with Vinnie Testaverde as his QB who had never led a team to a winning season in his previous 7 NFL seasons. As Giants DC under Parcells, he was the defensive mastermind behind Parcells' playoff success, including his SB success.  Belichick was NE's assistant HC under Parcells when the Patriots lost the SB after the 1996 season.  He followed Parcells to the Jests and he was Assistant HC when the Jests lost the AFC Championship game in 1998 ... with Vinnie Testaverde at QB no less.  After Belichick left the Jests to coach NE, Parcells never coached another playoff win.

 

Who knows what Brady would have been with another HC and another coaching scheme?

The reality of it was that Belichick was around a .500 career HC before Mo Lewis sent Bledsoe into orbit and subsequently altered the football world. The talk from Boston media on ESPN  radio the morning of that fateful game vs the Jets was that Belichick was going to be fired if the Patriots lost to the Jets and put themselves out of the playoff race for a 2nd straight season. We all know what happened. 

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44 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

It's called a Super Bowl Hangover.

 

There might be a little of that, but Ryan's year under Shanahan was head and shoulders better in every statistical category. 1.3% higher completion % than his 2nd best year in 2012, 15 more passing yards per game than his 2nd best year in 2012, 1.4 YPA better than his 2nd best year in his rookie year of 2008, 6 more TDs than his 2nd best year of 2012, a better INT% than his 2nd best year of 2010, Passer Rating of 117.1 compared with his 2nd best year in 2012 of 99.1.

 

It was the perfect storm in 2016 for Ryan's MVP season, and a 2nd year of being comfortable in Shanahan's system was what did it.

 

 

The step back this year with Shanahan leaving almost certainly would have happened whether the Falcons won the Super Bowl or lost.

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