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Sammy to be 100% ready to go for Training Camp


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I don't think it's as simple as targets, that be nice if it was.

Hoping he is both available and consistent this year, it's now or never if he wants that check.

Too many vanishing acts by him over the past 2 years. Some of it is injury, some of it is scheme, but some of it is on him and his abilities.

Edited by TheElectricCompany
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I don't think it's as simple as targets, that be nice if it was.

Hoping he is both available and consistent this year, it's now or never if he wants that check.

Too many vanishing acts by him over the past 2 years. Some of it is injury, some of it is scheme, but some of it is on him and his abilities.

 

Denver had 100 more PA's than buffalo last year, and we rushed a bit more than them. I think the balance will swing above the 50-50 rush/pass of the last 2 years, as hopefully less runs = more plays on offense. Maybe somewhere like 55/45 pass to run?

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Oh, and as to Andre Reed, he played in 6 more games than Sammy in his first 3 seasons, and had the benefit of playing with a HOF QB. Guess whose numbers are better over their first 3 seasons?

Your comparing numbers between players whose careers are 30 years apart? Now its really gotten ridiculous. Totally different game in the 80's. Qbs threw for far less yards back then. Wrs caught far fewer balls. In 1988 there were two teams that threw for 4000 yards or more. In 2016 it was thirteen teams. Totally different eras. Todays stats are vastly inflated. The only thing your proving right now is how little you really know.

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Your comparing numbers between players whose careers are 30 years apart? Now its really gotten ridiculous. Totally different game in the 80's. Qbs threw for far less yards back then. Wrs caught far fewer balls. In 1988 there were two teams that threw for 4000 yards or more. In 2016 it was thirteen teams. Totally different eras. Todays stats are vastly inflated. The only thing your proving right now is how little you really know.

 

You really know how to walk into a trap, don't you?

 

YOU made the original comparison between Reed and Watkins. Doesn't it make sense that if QBs threw less, WRs caught fewer balls, and passing in general was less prolific, a WR like Reed would play a higher percentage of his games than a guy like Watkins?

 

Thanks for proving my point, and thanks once again for not taking issue with a single fact-based argument.

 

You and I are definitely done here.

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Denver had 100 more PA's than buffalo last year, and we rushed a bit more than them. I think the balance will swing above the 50-50 rush/pass of the last 2 years, as hopefully less runs = more plays on offense. Maybe somewhere like 55/45 pass to run?

Great question, but I'm not privy to what mix makes us the most productive.

I know we have the makings of an another top notch run game, and that should create very choice play action opportunities.

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You really know how to walk into a trap, don't you?

 

YOU made the original comparison between Reed and Watkins. Doesn't it make sense that if QBs threw less, WRs caught fewer balls, and passing in general was less prolific, a WR like Reed would play a higher percentage of his games than a guy like Watkins?

 

Thanks for proving my point, and thanks once again for not taking issue with a single fact-based argument.

 

You and I are definitely done here.

You compared numbers. Not me. My only point is Andre was on the field most of the time. He was also a different player running far more routes over the middle than Watkins does. Apparently thats just too complex of a concept for you. Tough players play through pain and are productive. Soft players dont. Glass Watkins is the later. Andre is the former. Run along now. Take your ball and go home. Revel in 17 years of no playoffs. Its a streak right? Some people want to win. Your happy with below average and nobody will convince you otherwise. Edited by Billsmovinup
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You compared numbers. Not me. My only point is Andre was on the field most of the time. He was also a different player running far more routes over the middle than Watkins does. Apparently thats just too complex of a concept for you. Tough players play through pain and are productive. Soft players dont. Glass Watkins is the later. Andre is the former. Run along now. Take your ball and go home. Revel in 17 years of no playoffs. Its a streak right? Some people want to win. Your happy with below average and nobody will convince you otherwise.

 

You're wrong again.

 

I've posted Watkins route distribution on this page before, but once more can't hurt:

 

http://www.thebackya...is-ceiling.html

According to the above, in 2015...

23.5% of his routes were fly patterns

50.4% of his routes were inward-breaking

26.1% of his routes were outward-breaking

I also see that you're back to making straw-man arguments. I have no clue how you can draw any conclusion that I'm happy with 17 years of no playoffs based on the fact that I won't let you get away with making false statements about Sammy Watkins. Then again, I don't know how folks like yourself can get your vs. you're wrong every single time either :lol:

As to tough players playing through pain, imagine if Sammy was the most productive receiver in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015 while playing on a broken foot...that'd really be something ;)

#factsoverfeelings

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I don't think it's as simple as targets, that be nice if it was.

Hoping he is both available and consistent this year, it's now or never if he wants that check.

Too many vanishing acts by him over the past 2 years. Some of it is injury, some of it is scheme, but some of it is on him and his abilities.

 

When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominates

You compared numbers. Not me. My only point is Andre was on the field most of the time. He was also a different player running far more routes over the middle than Watkins does. Apparently thats just too complex of a concept for you. Tough players play through pain and are productive. Soft players dont. Glass Watkins is the later. Andre is the former. Run along now. Take your ball and go home. Revel in 17 years of no playoffs. Its a streak right? Some people want to win. Your happy with below average and nobody will convince you otherwise.

 

dude just give it up... its obvious you have an emotional vendetta against watkins

Edited by billz4life820
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When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominates

There were numerous games in the past three years where his production was minimal, or non existent.

Scheme does play a role in the production, but not 100%, that's all I'm saying.

How much of a role scheme plays on production is tough to define, I'd say 75% is ability, 25% scheme...

Edited by TheElectricCompany
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When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominates

 

 

dude just give it up... its obvious you have an emotional vendetta against watkins

The standard koolaid response. At least you guys are consistent. If you dont kiss the Bills asses on a regular basis on this site you have an agenda if some sort.

 

When has he ever vanished from games because of his abilities? Does running wide open every play in the season opener against the Ravens but not being thrown too count as vanishing? Everytime he has been the focal point of the offense he dominate.

He was wide open on every play? And the Bills just chose to ignore him. Could have won the game by fifty if they had just thrown the ball to Sammy on every down. Lmfao at that one. Delusional just took on a whole new meaning.

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Best case - the DBs ankles.

I like your style

The standard koolaid response. At least you guys are consistent. If you dont kiss the Bills asses on a regular basis on this site you have an agenda if some sort.

 

He was wide open on every play? And the Bills just chose to ignore him. Could have won the game by fifty if they had just thrown the ball to Sammy on every down. Lmfao at that one. Delusional just took on a whole new meaning.

I am disappointed you make these dialogues personal. Even if you were correct, it is in bad form to to group folks, and even worse to group them in a negative light.

Kind of puts you on an Island and leaves you open for being ostracized by the Folks you are chatting with.

 

I am quite sure you can do better with some patience and deep breathing, like I do.

 

Sammy has plenty to prove this year.

Much like Tyrod.

I am fine with hoping both players are able to reset and connect after The Rex Factor.

 

Have hope friends all.

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You're wrong again.

 

I've posted Watkins route distribution on this page before, but once more can't hurt:

 

http://www.thebackya...is-ceiling.html

According to the above, in 2015...

23.5% of his routes were fly patterns

50.4% of his routes were inward-breaking

26.1% of his routes were outward-breaking

I also see that you're back to making straw-man arguments. I have no clue how you can draw any conclusion that I'm happy with 17 years of no playoffs based on the fact that I won't let you get away with making false statements about Sammy Watkins. Then again, I don't know how folks like yourself can get your vs. you're wrong every single time either :lol:

As to tough players playing through pain, imagine if Sammy was the most productive receiver in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015 while playing on a broken foot...that'd really be something ;)

#factsoverfeelings

I'm curious where Watkins stands in term of percentage of passes thrown his way, when he's on the field. In other words, we know that he receives fewer targets than (to use your examples) Julio Jones, or OBJ. But, we also know that TT has thrown the ball far less than Eli Manning, or Matt Ryan. But, it still seems to me that he gets a low percentage of those throws, relatively. Or, it might just be me screaming at the TV, "throw it to Sammy, FFS!!!"

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People are funny.

 

Folks have no trouble trusting that he'll miss significant time despite the fact that he started 29 of a possible 32 games prior to last season.

 

How about we apply "I'll believe it when I see it" to ALL scenarios, since it's all speculation at this point?

he's a heck of a talent, I just want to see what a 16 game Sammy season looks like with a QB that can get him the ball. that would be fun to see. get your popcorn, hopefully

Edited by jmcraig44
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I'm curious where Watkins stands in term of percentage of passes thrown his way, when he's on the field. In other words, we know that he receives fewer targets than (to use your examples) Julio Jones, or OBJ. But, we also know that TT has thrown the ball far less than Eli Manning, or Matt Ryan. But, it still seems to me that he gets a low percentage of those throws, relatively. Or, it might just be me screaming at the TV, "throw it to Sammy, FFS!!!"

 

Really, really intelligent question Rocky. Bravo for adding some meat to the discussion :thumbsup:

 

I don't know that I've done this exact deep dive before, so I'll hash it out a bit.

 

I have a few sources for this, but the easiest for comparison's sake is an NFL.com piece on the 2015 season:

 

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000693785/article/wide-receiver-target-distribution-for-all-32-teams

 

The best source, IMO, is Player Profiler, which shows each WR's rank in terms of target share and HOG rate (which shows a player's percentage of targets per snap):

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/sammy-watkins/#/current-year

^ the downside is that you have to search player-by-player

 

Here's what we can glean:

 

2015 Opportunity Numbers

Sammy ranked 42nd in snap share, 35th overall in targets, 11th in target share, and 31st in targets/snap played

Beckham ranked 1st, 7th, 10th, and 14th (respectively) in those same categories

Julio ranked 29th, 1st, 2nd, and 1st

Antonio Brown ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 6th

Mike Evans ranked 34th, 10th, 5th, and 7th

 

2015 Production Numbers

Sammy ranked 36th in receptions, 19th in yards, 9th in air yards, 11th in TDs, 1st in yards/target, and 40th in catch rate

Beckham ranked 8th, 5th, 10th, 4th, 19th, and 51st (respectively) in those same categories

Julio ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 26th

Antonio ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, 13th, and 11th

Evans ranked 21st, 11th, 7th, 59th, 40th, and 95th

 

As we can see, there's a direct correlation between target rank and rank in both receptions and yards.

 

Now, it's also worth noting that (from the NFL article linked above) Sammy's target share increased to 32% from weeks 9 to 17 of the season--a rate that would've trailed only Julio Jones for target percentage. Not coincidentally, their numbers during that period look like this:

 

Player---Targets----Rec----Yds---TDs---Catch %---TDs

Jones------101-------66-----979-----2-------65-----------2

Watkins-----70-------49-----900-----7-------70-----------7

 

http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/

 

So, to sum up: Watkins' massive increase in target share in the final 9 games of 2015 is the only reason he's even in the same vicinity as the other WRs in terms of opportunities, and as the numbers show, he routinely does more with his opportunities than the others.

Edited by thebandit27
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Really, really intelligent question Rocky. Bravo for adding some meat to the discussion :thumbsup:

 

I don't know that I've done this exact deep dive before, so I'll hash it out a bit.

 

I have a few sources for this, but the easiest for comparison's sake is an NFL.com piece on the 2015 season:

 

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000693785/article/wide-receiver-target-distribution-for-all-32-teams

 

The best source, IMO, is Player Profiler, which shows each WR's rank in terms of target share and HOG rate (which shows a player's percentage of targets per snap):

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/sammy-watkins/#/current-year

^ the downside is that you have to search player-by-player

 

Here's what we can glean:

 

2015 Opportunity Numbers

Sammy ranked 42nd in snap share, 35th overall in targets, 11th in target share, and 31st in targets/snap played

Beckham ranked 1st, 7th, 10th, and 14th (respectively) in those same categories

Julio ranked 29th, 1st, 2nd, and 1st

Antonio Brown ranked 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 6th

Mike Evans ranked 34th, 10th, 5th, and 7th

 

2015 Production Numbers

Sammy ranked 36th in receptions, 19th in yards, 9th in air yards, 11th in TDs, 1st in yards/target, and 40th in catch rate

Beckham ranked 8th, 5th, 10th, 4th, 19th, and 51st (respectively) in those same categories

Julio ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 26th

Antonio ranked 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, 13th, and 11th

Evans ranked 21st, 11th, 7th, 59th, 40th, and 95th

 

As we can see, there's a direct correlation between target rank and rank in both receptions and yards.

 

Now, it's also worth noting that (from the NFL article linked above) Sammy's target share increased to 32% from weeks 9 to 17 of the season--a rate that would've trailed only Julio Jones for target percentage. Not coincidentally, their numbers during that period look like this:

 

Player---Targets----Rec----Yds---TDs---Catch %---TDs

Jones------101-------66-----979-----2-------65-----------2

Watkins-----70-------49-----900-----7-------70-----------7

 

http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/

 

So, to sum up: Watkins' massive increase in target share in the final 9 games of 2015 is the only reason he's even in the same vicinity as the other WRs in terms of opportunities, and as the numbers show, he routinely does more with his opportunities than the others.

How did he do in 2016 when he missed half the year with an injury? If your going to analyze his performance just dont cherry pick seasons. Lets look at the big picture. Throw 2014 in there also. I could look at JP Losmans game against Houston and conclude hes a perenial pro bowler. Also explain why the Bills didnt pick up his fifth year. Cant wait to hear that one. Edited by Billsmovinup
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How did he do in 2016 when he missed half the year with an injury? If your going to analyze his performance just dont cherry pick seasons. Lets look at the big picture. Throw 2014 in there also. I could look at JP Losmans game against Houston and conclude hes a perenial pro bowler. Also explain why the Bills didnt pick up his fifth year. Cant wait to hear that one.

 

I'll be 100% honest: right now, I'm trying to decide if you're just messing with me, because the other alternative wouldn't speak well of you...

 

1) the player profiler site doesn't have data that goes back to 2014

2) the poster asked for a comparison for when he's on the field, ergo an analysis of the games he missed would be idiotic in light of that request

3) I already answered your tangential-to-the-point-at-best question about why they didn't pick up his option 2 pages ago http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/194793-sammy-to-be-100-ready-to-go-for-training-camp/page-2?do=findComment&comment=4437962

 

For the sake of your reputation on the board, please consider stopping the nonsensical garbage where you ignore all facts presented that run counter to your argument.

Edited by thebandit27
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You're wrong again.

 

I've posted Watkins route distribution on this page before, but once more can't hurt:

http://www.thebackya...is-ceiling.html

According to the above, in 2015...

23.5% of his routes were fly patterns

50.4% of his routes were inward-breaking

26.1% of his routes were outward-breaking

I also see that you're back to making straw-man arguments. I have no clue how you can draw any conclusion that I'm happy with 17 years of no playoffs based on the fact that I won't let you get away with making false statements about Sammy Watkins. Then again, I don't know how folks like yourself can get your vs. you're wrong every single time either :lol:

As to tough players playing through pain, imagine if Sammy was the most productive receiver in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015 while playing on a broken foot...that'd really be something ;)

#factsoverfeelings

Wheres Andres numbers? Or do you just like to make a one sided arguement. Id also like to know the specific route breakdown of every inward route. Did he go two yards in, five yards in, ten yards in. If your going to rely on analytics you need to be thorough. This is just a lazy incomplete argument on your part. With a scattering of stats that are designed more to mislead than explain. Stop trying to show everyone how smart you are cause you are really embarrassing yourself right now. Its pathetic and sad.

 

I'll be 100% honest: right now, I'm trying to decide if you're just messing with me, because the other alternative wouldn't speak well of you...

 

1) the player profiler site doesn't have data that goes back to 2014

2) the poster asked for a comparison for when he's on the field, ergo an analysis of the games he missed would be idiotic in light of that request

3) I already answered your tangential-to-the-point-at-best question about why they didn't pick up his option 2 pages ago http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/194793-sammy-to-be-100-ready-to-go-for-training-camp/page-2?do=findComment&comment=4437962

 

For the sake of your reputation on the board, please consider stopping the nonsensical garbage where you ignore all facts presented that run counter to your argument.

Tell me why they didnt pick up his option?

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Wheres Andres numbers? Or do you just like to make a one sided arguement. Id also like to know the specific route breakdown of every inward route. Did he go two yards in, five yards in, ten yards in. If your going to rely on analytics you need to be thorough. This is just a lazy incomplete argument on your part. With a scattering of stats that are designed more to mislead than explain. Stop trying to show everyone how smart you are cause you are really embarrassing yourself right now. Its pathetic and sad.

 

Let's take a poll and see how many posters agree that I'm the one embarrassing myself in this discussion...what say you?

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Hes so great. They gave up a first and fourth to move up. Why didnt they pick up his option? Thats the bottom line. Tell me!!!

 

its a full injury guarantee I think, while if we wait and his foot is still a mangled mess we can not be stuck with a huge cap hit for a non-contributor, The non-exclusive tag isn't that much more cap space than the 4th overall picks 5th year option if i recall.

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Hes so great. They gave up a first and fourth to move up. Why didnt they pick up his option? Thats the bottom line. Tell me!!!

 

Injuries. Bandit has set out a number of times why he thinks they were wrong not to.... but they haven't picked up his option because this foot issue has been lingering for 2 years now and they are clearly concerned about whether it will ever heel properly. Also if it does and he balls out in 2017 the difference in $$ terms between a 5th year option and the 1st year of a long term deal is in all likelyhood relatively small... as is the difference between the option and the franchise tag.

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Wheres Andres numbers? Or do you just like to make a one sided arguement. Id also like to know the specific route breakdown of every inward route. Did he go two yards in, five yards in, ten yards in. If your going to rely on analytics you need to be thorough. This is just a lazy incomplete argument on your part. With a scattering of stats that are designed more to mislead than explain. Stop trying to show everyone how smart you are cause you are really embarrassing yourself right now. Its pathetic and sad.

 

Tell me why they didnt pick up his option?

Actually my friend, Bandit is one of the most knowledgeable posters we have on this board. A solid contributor to say the least. He backs his statements up with statistics and doesn't just throw s*** at the wall like some I have seen over the last 10 years. Step back from the emotion and look at the insight. You will be able to understand what he is conveying then. :thumbsup:

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Hes so great. They gave up a first and fourth to move up. Why didnt they pick up his option? Thats the bottom line. Tell me!!!

Franchise tag isn't much different than his 5th year option. They are playing it smart for once on the injury and not getting hung. The bandito has a long history of knowledgeable posting.

Edited by Mike in Horseheads
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Ok. My apologies. In the 500 paragraphs youve written defending him I missed that. There concerned with the foot. Probably also concerned with some of his other injuries. Which is all im saying. Hes a great receiver when healthy. Pretty sure I already said that. Id even go as far as top ten. But hes been hurt. And his production since he got drafted is far below that of Evans and Beckham. Due in part to him not being on the field. Or not being close to 100 percent when on it.

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And his production since he got drafted is far below that of Evans and Beckham. Due in part to him not being on the field. Or not being close to 100 percent when on it.

 

And in other part from not throwing him the ball enough. Which was Bandit's point.

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Ok. My apologies. In the 500 paragraphs youve written defending him I missed that. There concerned with the foot. Probably also concerned with some of his other injuries. Which is all im saying. Hes a great receiver when healthy. Pretty sure I already said that. Id even go as far as top ten. But hes been hurt. And his production since he got drafted is far below that of Evans and Beckham. Due in part to him not being on the field. Or not being close to 100 percent when on it.

 

To be fair - his stats align really closely with the first 3 years of Julio Jones.

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Franchise tag isn't much different than his 5th year option. They are playing it smart for once on the injury and not getting hung.

So if thats your reasoning. That the franchise tag isnt much different. Why does anybody pick up a fifth year? Dont worry. I got this. Cause teams typically wont franchise a player more than one or two seasons. Because using the fifth year option enables them to save the franchise tag for year sixth. Which keeps the player on the team one year longer. Which gives the team more time to negotiate a long term deal. The fact they didnt pick up year five is a red flag. If Sammys coming off consecutive pro bowls they are exercising that option.

 

To be fair - his stats align really closely with the first 3 years of Julio Jones.

Agreed. And that gives me some reason for hope. Im not saying Watkins is terrible. Im just saying there are concerns. Concerns the team clearly shares. Some players are more prone to injury than others. We wont really have and answer on Sammy for another 4 or 5 years. Correct me if Im wrong but Julio had the same problem with his foot didnt he? In his 3rd year. So there is hope. But there are also question marks. Huge year for Watkins. Hope he catches 100 balls for 1500 yards and 15 tds and gets a huge extension.

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So if thats your reasoning. That the franchise tag isnt much different. Why does anybody pick up a fifth year? Dont worry. I got this. Cause teams typically wont franchise a player more than one or two seasons. Because using the fifth year option enables them to save the franchise tag for year sixth. Which keeps the player on the team one year longer. Which gives the team more time to negotiate a long term deal. The fact they didnt pick up year five is a red flag. If Sammys coming off consecutive pro bowls they are exercising that option.

I guess you didn't read the second sentence, here I'll help you.... They are playing it smart for once on the injury and not getting hung.

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And in other part from not throwing him the ball enough. Which was Bandit's point.

Thats a valid point but the injury issue is a valid point also and its likely why the team didnt exercise his fifth year. Dont understand why people get their asses up when you bring up the injury issue. Its a real issue. If it wasnt theyd be negotiating a six year, 90 million plus extension right now because he is an immense talent. Dont think anyone is debating his talent level. Its the ability to be on the field and be productive consistently.

I guess you didn't read the second sentence, here I'll help you.... They are playing it smart for once on the injury and not getting hung.

No. I did read the second sentence. You brought up the franchise tag and ignored the fact that teams typically use the fifth year option if they have no concerns about the player. Clearly the Bills have concerns. Its why they didnt execute the option. It has little to do with the tag. If they were sold on Watkins they would have excercised the option and saved the tag which they then could have used in year six if they couldnt come to a long term agreement. Edited by Billsmovinup
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Ok. My apologies. In the 500 paragraphs youve written defending him I missed that. There concerned with the foot. Probably also concerned with some of his other injuries. Which is all im saying. Hes a great receiver when healthy. Pretty sure I already said that. Id even go as far as top ten. But hes been hurt. And his production since he got drafted is far below that of Evans and Beckham. Due in part to him not being on the field. Or not being close to 100 percent when on it.

And if you look at how many times those guys were targeted you will see the discrepancy between them. Sammy has seen far less targets than Beckham or Evans in his first few years in this league. Last year he was hurt and missed considerable time, yes, but prior to he had not seen the targets except during his 6 week stretch at the end of 2015 where he put up 679yds and 6 TD's in that time. When he gets the ball he puts up elite numbers. There are many plays where Sammy is open, but for whatever reason the QB doesn't look his way. There aren't too many CB's in this league that can lock him down one on one. If they feed him then he will produce.

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And if you look at how many times those guys were targeted you will see the discrepancy between them. Sammy has seen far less targets than Beckham or Evans in his first few years in this league. Last year he was hurt and missed considerable time, yes, but prior to he had not seen the targets except during his 6 week stretch at the end of 2015 where he put up 679yds and 6 TD's in that time. When he gets the ball he puts up elite numbers. There are many plays where Sammy is open, but for whatever reason the QB doesn't look his way. There aren't too many CB's in this league that can lock him down one on one. If they feed him then he will produce.

Agree with all of that but the injury issue remains. Its why they didnt pick up his option. They want to see him make it though a whole year with minimal injury issues before they sign him long term.

Edited by Billsmovinup
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Which, honestly, if anyone here thinks Watkins plays even 12 games this year...

 

I want the kid to succeed, I just don't envision the injury history truly being behind him.

 

Started his career by playing in 29 of 32 games in the 1st two seasons. You envisioning him having further injuries is based on what?

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