Moneyball

[PromoTheRobot]

Sorry Robot, but I'm not sure you can say the moves our Bills are making this off season are 'smart'

Smart to me means signing players that get you those 2-3 extra wins than you got last season and actual playoff contenders not pretenders

So if we win 10 games plus this season I'll grant you that these moves were smart, and quite successful

If we only win 6-8, I;m not sure how you apply that word to the totality of the moves

Middling, mediocre, sideways, IMO would apply more than 'smart'

I mean looking back at all our moves this time last year, we're they really 'smart' they sure as hell were not successful

Just saying...

 

jc

Your argument is assuming the players the Bills signed won't earn you 2-3 wins, as if you have a crystal ball. You weren't on TBD last year, but I'm sure the BBMB was similar in its collective yawn over signing Zach Brown, Lorenzo Alexander, Justin Hunter or Ryan Groy. "Never heard of them, they must suck, fire Whaley."

 

You can't sign 53 legends.

Edited March 27, 2017 by PromoTheRobot

[Chuck Wagon]

At this point it means spending big on the interior OL. Browns paid $46.7m in fully gtd $ to 2 guards and a Center this month. They couldn't get Tony Jefferson to take their huge contract and he went to Ravens for less. They let their best player from last season leave, and backed up the Brinks truck for Jamie Collins. They stroked a 16 mill check for a 6th rd pick and to swap a 4th for a 2nd, and a QB they don't want and won't admit they actually need. They have a crook, baseball exec and a lawyer running a NFL team. Their HC decided he doesn't need an OC. #thisismoneyball

 

 

But draft picks!

 

 

The Tretter money for a man who has missed as many games injured as he has played was particularly baffling to me. I like the Zeitler pick up and the re-signing of Bitonio (who I as a fan of coming out). The Osweiler thing might be a clever cash dump to make sure that they hit this year's cap floor without it restricting their ability to make moves in FA next year. However, they need to prove it with an improved team on Sundays in the fall and that means using the draft picks they have this year wisely. If they suck badly again this year Jackson will almost certainly get the boot and they are left asking another new Head Coach to trust a front office that so far has been unconventional and unsuccessful. Hue seems, to some extent at least, bought in to this plan. Who knows if they can find another legitimate Head Coach willing to risk that experiment.

 

Having a lot of picks in the next two drafts allows the Browns to sell hope..... eventually they need to sell wins.

 

 

The Tretter deal is a short term deal, I'm guessing Greco ( pretty well respected vet) and Tretter will battle it out for the center job in camp. The real question is what happens at QB, if they do land Jimmy G. it could be interesting quick for them, if they go with Brock or Kessler it's going to be a LONG year again.

 

The most concerning factor for them is it's tough to tell if they actually accomplished anything in the draft last year. Many of their draft picks were laughed at by respected NFL talent guys (similar to moneyball with the old scouts) but they didn't exactly show they knew more than previous Browns regimes. Having a lot of draft picks is great and all, but when you are cycling 12+ rookies in yearly you are inevitably going to let guys who can play walk, letting Gabriel walk was a worse move than any of the picks they made at WR. Using 4 draft picks on WRs then still having to give $30 mil to Kenny Britt is not a good sign of their talent evaluations.

[YoloinOhio]

 

The Tretter money for a man who has missed as many games injured as he has played was particularly baffling to me. I like the Zeitler pick up and the re-signing of Bitonio (who I as a fan of coming out). The Osweiler thing might be a clever cash dump to make sure that they hit this year's cap floor without it restricting their ability to make moves in FA next year. However, they need to prove it with an improved team on Sundays in the fall and that means using the draft picks they have this year wisely. If they suck badly again this year Jackson will almost certainly get the boot and they are left asking another new Head Coach to trust a front office that so far has been unconventional and unsuccessful. Hue seems, to some extent at least, bought in to this plan. Who knows if they can find another legitimate Head Coach willing to risk that experiment.

 

Having a lot of picks in the next two drafts allows the Browns to sell hope..... eventually they need to sell wins.

i like Bitonio too but he has also missed a ton of games to injury. Of course if they had just drafted a better guard than Cam Erving and paid Mitchell Schwartz and Alex Mack last year instead of subjecting their 6 (!) different QBs to that line of matadors last year they wouldn't have had to overpay for o linemen in FA this year.

[Mr. WEO]

 

 

But draft picks!

 

 

 

The Tretter deal is a short term deal, I'm guessing Greco ( pretty well respected vet) and Tretter will battle it out for the center job in camp. The real question is what happens at QB, if they do land Jimmy G. it could be interesting quick for them, if they go with Brock or Kessler it's going to be a LONG year again.

 

The most concerning factor for them is it's tough to tell if they actually accomplished anything in the draft last year. Many of their draft picks were laughed at by respected NFL talent guys (similar to moneyball with the old scouts) but they didn't exactly show they knew more than previous Browns regimes. Having a lot of draft picks is great and all, but when you are cycling 12+ rookies in yearly you are inevitably going to let guys who can play walk, letting Gabriel walk was a worse move than any of the picks they made at WR. Using 4 draft picks on WRs then still having to give $30 mil to Kenny Britt is not a good sign of their talent evaluations.

 

 

These guys simply have proven that moneyball as they do it in baseball can't work in the NFL.

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

But draft picks!

 

 

 

The Tretter deal is a short term deal, I'm guessing Greco ( pretty well respected vet) and Tretter will battle it out for the center job in camp. The real question is what happens at QB, if they do land Jimmy G. it could be interesting quick for them, if they go with Brock or Kessler it's going to be a LONG year again.

 

The most concerning factor for them is it's tough to tell if they actually accomplished anything in the draft last year. Many of their draft picks were laughed at by respected NFL talent guys (similar to moneyball with the old scouts) but they didn't exactly show they knew more than previous Browns regimes. Having a lot of draft picks is great and all, but when you are cycling 12+ rookies in yearly you are inevitably going to let guys who can play walk, letting Gabriel walk was a worse move than any of the picks they made at WR. Using 4 draft picks on WRs then still having to give $30 mil to Kenny Britt is not a good sign of their talent evaluations.

i think they actually drafted 5 WRs in 2016. They used DeValve as more of a TE but he was listed as a WR coming out. Edited March 27, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[GunnerBill]

 

The most concerning factor for them is it's tough to tell if they actually accomplished anything in the draft last year. Many of their draft picks were laughed at by respected NFL talent guys (similar to moneyball with the old scouts) but they didn't exactly show they knew more than previous Browns regimes. Having a lot of draft picks is great and all, but when you are cycling 12+ rookies in yearly you are inevitably going to let guys who can play walk, letting Gabriel walk was a worse move than any of the picks they made at WR. Using 4 draft picks on WRs then still having to give $30 mil to Kenny Britt is not a good sign of their talent evaluations.

 

Nail. On. The. Head. Great post.

[Beef Jerky]

Yeah, but they're rebuilding.

I doubt they ever finish.

[PromoTheRobot]

I doubt they ever finish.

Exactly.

[billsintaiwan]

Moneyball is about finding undervalued assets in a more or less free market. Oakland did this. Kansas City did this.

 

The concept doesn't really work in a salary cap context.

 

However moneyball is neither the beginning nor the end of analytics

[nucci]

The Browns have bought in big to Moneyball and brought in some of the best minds in the business. The ownership looks committed to making the necessary investments for genuine organizational change. I read a few years back that OBD created a position just for stats based research but there was no word on whether the franchise as a whole was committed to this as a guiding ideology. I guess my question is we aren't committing to this,what game plan are we committing to?

What business?

[Chuck Wagon]

One thing that does seem strange, it seems like DePodesta became a much more highly regarded baseball mind when he became a football mind than when he was ever actually a baseball mind.

 

I think they've put together a good starting point, but it seems the only "moneyball" concept they've brought in from baseball is thinking they are smarter than everyone else. A lot of their plan is copying what the Raiders did, but it's all moot until they find a QB.

[jeffismagic]

One thing that does seem strange, it seems like DePodesta became a much more highly regarded baseball mind when he became a football mind than when he was ever actually a baseball mind.

 

I think they've put together a good starting point, but it seems the only "moneyball" concept they've brought in from baseball is thinking they are smarter than everyone else. A lot of their plan is copying what the Raiders did, but it's all moot until they find a QB.

Browns are looking into Mahomes. If Bills draft another DB while the Browns get Garrett and Mahomes then the Browns will soon pass the Bills.

[row_33]

They used an extensive analytics department in the assembly of their roster, before and after Theo. Now it's hard to get ahead in the same way. They spent a ton on scouting non American players, and missed as much as they hit.

 

Moneyball worked because billy beane had 3 deep beast starting pitching, and tejada/Chavez. He had a good team already so it was easy to look at unique ways to fill some holes.

 

The browns have the worst team in the league, and with football it all comes down to qbs. They will be the worst team again and get their qb next year.

 

The A's didn't win a damn thing under Moneyball, would have finished 3rd at best in the AL East for all those years.

 

I'm old enough remember the dynasty the A's built in the 70s and late 80s, so there's no sympathy for the team for losing. And they were the biggest bunch of jerks as well for both squads.

 

Moneyball works for people who don't pay strict attention to baseball, it's a just-quite-so story, but for fans who watch the game daily and know the ins and outs it is a total crock. Like a movie about Chuck Yeager breaking the sound barrier by putting his plane into reverse at just the right time...

Edited March 27, 2017 by row_33

[nucci]

 

The A's didn't win a damn thing under Moneyball, would have finished 3rd at best in the AL East for all those years.

 

I'm old enough remember the dynasty the A's built in the 70s and late 80s, so there's no sympathy for the team for losing. And they were the biggest bunch of jerks as well for both squads.

 

Moneyball works for people who don't pay strict attention to baseball, it's a just-quite-so story, but for fans who watch the game daily and know the ins and outs it is a total crock. Like a movie about Chuck Yeager breaking the sound barrier by putting his plane into reverse at just the right time...

From 1996-2004 they finished 1st 3 times and made the playoffs 4 times....while no World Series far from not winning a damn thing

[Chuck Wagon]

 

The A's didn't win a damn thing under Moneyball, would have finished 3rd at best in the AL East for all those years.

 

I'm old enough remember the dynasty the A's built in the 70s and late 80s, so there's no sympathy for the team for losing. And they were the biggest bunch of jerks as well for both squads.

 

Moneyball works for people who don't pay strict attention to baseball, it's a just-quite-so story, but for fans who watch the game daily and know the ins and outs it is a total crock. Like a movie about Chuck Yeager breaking the sound barrier by putting his plane into reverse at just the right time...

 

 

I never read the book, but I really enjoyed how the movie made it out that Jeremy Giambi, Scott Hatteberg and David Justice were the reason the A's were so good, while failing to mention having 3 CY Young winning pitchers or a MVP winning shortstop as a factor of success.

 

You don't win in the NFL because you have a roster full of under appreciated talent, you win because you have Tom Brady, Julio Jones, Cam Newton or Von Miller.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

I never read the book, but I really enjoyed how the movie made it out that Jeremy Giambi, Scott Hatteberg and David Justice were the reason the A's were so good, while failing to mention having 3 CY Young winning pitchers or a MVP winning shortstop as a factor of success.

 

You don't win in the NFL because you have a roster full of under appreciated talent, you win because you have Tom Brady, Julio Jones, Cam Newton or Von Miller.

But you still need the supporting cast.

[YoloinOhio]

@joebuscaglia

#Bills HC Sean McDermott: I'm a big believer in analytics and technology. To ignore that is irresponsible.

 

#Bills HC McDermott with analytics mentions player tracking to maximize, what if scenarios with draft/on field. "My brains always moving"

 

#Bills HC Sean McDermott: Information is power, and I think you use it as a part of the equation to make sound decisions.

[wilcoam]

Again, I love Moneyball, and I;d happily support our Bills doing this

However in the NFL the easiest way to acquire great talent at minimal cost, and a fixed cost, is the draft

So our Bills are doing a poor job of Moneyball

First this regime keep trading em away, not acquiring extra's

And then we are not getting enough ree comp picks

So the lack of draft and comp picks means you have to fill the roster with players that cost you more than draft pick salaries

That's the opposite of moneyball

 

jc

Edited March 29, 2017 by wilcoam

[YoloinOhio]

This is so Tony Grossi and so Browns if true

 

ESPN columnist accuses fellow ESPNer Bill Barnwell of secretly consulting for the Browns:

http://deadspin.com/espn-columnist-accuses-fellow-espner-bill-barnwell-of-s-1794119338?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

[Tenhigh]

 

 

I never read the book, but I really enjoyed how the movie made it out that Jeremy Giambi, Scott Hatteberg and David Justice were the reason the A's were so good, while failing to mention having 3 CY Young winning pitchers or a MVP winning shortstop as a factor of success.

 

You don't win in the NFL because you have a roster full of under appreciated talent, you win because you have Tom Brady, Julio Jones, Cam Newton or Von Miller.

I read it (a long time ago) and I remember them obsessing over Youkilis for half the book, God of Walks, or something like that. OPS was the super-stat, if I remember correctly, and the key was valuing players by sabremetrics over old fashioned stats. Good read.