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Gut Check Time


gjv001

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What type of players do you think we have on this 2016 Buffalo Bills roster.

Is this roster loaded with players who will rise to the occasion at Gut Check Time

and surprise the naysayers by getting this team into the playoffs. Or are there

too many "Pay Checkers" on this roster that will make the naysayers gloat.

 

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the guaranteed money in contracts nowadays + the risk of long-term serious injuries=less reason to compete.

 

if i can get paid millions, hang around for a couple years, avoid the field as much as possible and walk away at 26, i'd do it 10/10 times.

 

 

I would too, but I got one question. Why don't other teams have this problem?

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I honestly think that we just have a few entitled brats on this team that let individual success get to their heads. Especially Gilmore, Dareus even Sammy. It's really sad that some of these guys think they have to play victim all the time. Some guys just don't get it and it's as simple as that unfortunately.

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What type of players do you think we have on this 2016 Buffalo Bills roster.

Is this roster loaded with players who will rise to the occasion at Gut Check Time

and surprise the naysayers by getting this team into the playoffs. Or are there

too many "Pay Checkers" on this roster that will make the naysayers gloat.

 

The way that the AFC has played out so far, probably means that we will have to run the table. The Bills are a pretty good team but pretty good doesn't run the table. Hope I'm wrong.

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Can the Bills make the playoffs as a WC team? Yes, but they probably won't. The AFCW is too strong, with three teams with 7 wins. The biggest risk is the AFCW has all three teams make the playoffs. What has to happen for the AFCW to send only a champion and one WC team?

 

The absolute best case scenario is Buffalo wins out, the other non-AFCW teams stumble enough to drop from contention, and the following happens:

KC goes 1-6 the rest of the way, beating only Oakland in week 14

Oakland goes1-6 the rest of the way, beating only Denver in week 17

Denver goes 2-4 the rest of the way, beating only KC in week 12 and KC again in week 16

 

then

 

Buffalo will be 11-5, 8-4 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCE.

KC will be 8-8, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW

Oakland will be 8-8, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW

Denver will be 9-7, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW

 

Obviously this won't happen. The best thing is if one of the three teams becomes dominant, one does OK, and the other collapses. Since the Bills play Oakland and will probably lose, and since Oakland is actually playing better than KC and Denver, let's assume Oakland wins all the head to head AFCW games and wins the division, Denver does well, but KC continues to lose all the but the head to head games. Then it's Denver that is the other WC team and KC that collapses.

 

so

 

KC goes 0-7 the rest of the way

Oakland goes 7-0 the rest of the way (oh why not, it doesn't change anything), beating KC in week 14 and Denver in week 17

Denver goes 2-4 the rest of the way, beating only KC in week 12 and KC again in week 16

 

then

 

Buffalo will be 10-6, 7-5 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCE.

KC will be 7-9, 5-7 in the AFC, and 2-4 in the AFCW

Oakland will be 14-2, 11-1 in the AFC, and 5-1 in the AFCW

Denver will be 9-7, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW (same as before)

 

So obviously Denver won't go 2-4 the rest of the way, but that's OK, they can win a lot more games and get a WC. In this scenario it's KC we have to worry about. They won't go 0-7 the rest of the way. If they go 3-4 and two of their wins are in the AFC, they'll be 10-6, and 7-5 in the AFC, matching the Bills. If it's KC we need to beat out, and they go 4-3 or better, or they go 3-4 with three wins in the AFC, they win.

 

Now go a different way. Assume that Oakland is dominant, KC gets the other WC, and Denver collapses,

 

KC goes 2-5 the rest of the way (or better), beating Denver in week 12 and Denver again in week 16

Oakland goes 7-0 the rest of the way, beating KC in week 14 and Denver in week 17

Denver goes 0-6 the rest of the way

 

Buffalo will be 10-6, 7-5 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCE.

KC will be at least 9-7, at least 7-5 in the AFC, and at least 4-2 in the AFCW

Oakland will be 14-2, 11-1 in the AFC, and 5-1 in the AFCW

Denver will be 7-9, 4-8 in the AFC, and 1-5 in the AFCW

 

Now if Denver is the team we have to beat out, and they go no better than 3-3, even if all three wins are in the AFC, they'll match the Bills record. If it's Denver we have to beat out, if they go 4-2 or better, we lose.

 

It's really hard to imagine those strong AFCW teams all losing enough for the Bills to get in, even if the Bills finish 10-6, if their remaining loss is to an AFC team.

 

The calculations all change if we beat Oakland and end up 11-5 and 8-4 in the AFC. Then it becomes much less unlikely we could beat out one of the AFCW teams. If it's KC we have to beat out, they would need to go no better than 4-2 and have only two more AFC wins. If it's Denver we have to beat out, they would need to go no better than 4-2, with three more AFC wins.

 

These are the scenarios where the Bills tie the third place AFCW team. I don't pretend to understand the tie breakers at that point, and it's not worth the effort to figure it out, since this ain't happenin'. Most likely all three AFCW teams will win at least four of their remaining games, all getting to at least 11 wins, and the Bills won't run the table. The statistical figure I saw of a 20% chance for the Bills to make the playoffs seems too high. Will one of the AFCW teams really collapse in the second half? I don't see it happening barring several injuries to key players or injuries to all the players at a single position.

 

I'm willing to keep the faith, until the fat lady sings. But she's warming up, and the orchestra is playing her intro.

 

Go Bills. Beat the Bengals.

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What type of players do you think we have on this 2016 Buffalo Bills roster.

Is this roster loaded with players who will rise to the occasion at Gut Check Time

and surprise the naysayers by getting this team into the playoffs. Or are there

too many "Pay Checkers" on this roster that will make the naysayers gloat.

 

The obstacles in the way of a playoff berth for this team cannot be overcome with a mere "gut check."

Can the Bills make the playoffs as a WC team? Yes, but they probably won't. The AFCW is too strong, with three teams with 7 wins. The biggest risk is the AFCW has all three teams make the playoffs. What has to happen for the AFCW to send only a champion and one WC team?

 

The absolute best case scenario is Buffalo wins out, the other non-AFCW teams stumble enough to drop from contention, and the following happens:

KC goes 1-6 the rest of the way, beating only Oakland in week 14

Oakland goes1-6 the rest of the way, beating only Denver in week 17

Denver goes 2-4 the rest of the way, beating only KC in week 12 and KC again in week 16

 

then

 

Buffalo will be 11-5, 8-4 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCE.

KC will be 8-8, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW

Oakland will be 8-8, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW

Denver will be 9-7, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW

 

Obviously this won't happen. The best thing is if one of the three teams becomes dominant, one does OK, and the other collapses. Since the Bills play Oakland and will probably lose, and since Oakland is actually playing better than KC and Denver, let's assume Oakland wins all the head to head AFCW games and wins the division, Denver does well, but KC continues to lose all the but the head to head games. Then it's Denver that is the other WC team and KC that collapses.

 

so

 

KC goes 0-7 the rest of the way

Oakland goes 7-0 the rest of the way (oh why not, it doesn't change anything), beating KC in week 14 and Denver in week 17

Denver goes 2-4 the rest of the way, beating only KC in week 12 and KC again in week 16

 

then

 

Buffalo will be 10-6, 7-5 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCE.

KC will be 7-9, 5-7 in the AFC, and 2-4 in the AFCW

Oakland will be 14-2, 11-1 in the AFC, and 5-1 in the AFCW

Denver will be 9-7, 6-6 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCW (same as before)

 

So obviously Denver won't go 2-4 the rest of the way, but that's OK, they can win a lot more games and get a WC. In this scenario it's KC we have to worry about. They won't go 0-7 the rest of the way. If they go 3-4 and two of their wins are in the AFC, they'll be 10-6, and 7-5 in the AFC, matching the Bills. If it's KC we need to beat out, and they go 4-3 or better, or they go 3-4 with three wins in the AFC, they win.

 

Now go a different way. Assume that Oakland is dominant, KC gets the other WC, and Denver collapses,

 

KC goes 2-5 the rest of the way (or better), beating Denver in week 12 and Denver again in week 16

Oakland goes 7-0 the rest of the way, beating KC in week 14 and Denver in week 17

Denver goes 0-6 the rest of the way

 

Buffalo will be 10-6, 7-5 in the AFC, and 3-3 in the AFCE.

KC will be at least 9-7, at least 7-5 in the AFC, and at least 4-2 in the AFCW

Oakland will be 14-2, 11-1 in the AFC, and 5-1 in the AFCW

Denver will be 7-9, 4-8 in the AFC, and 1-5 in the AFCW

 

Now if Denver is the team we have to beat out, and they go no better than 3-3, even if all three wins are in the AFC, they'll match the Bills record. If it's Denver we have to beat out, if they go 4-2 or better, we lose.

 

It's really hard to imagine those strong AFCW teams all losing enough for the Bills to get in, even if the Bills finish 10-6, if their remaining loss is to an AFC team.

 

The calculations all change if we beat Oakland and end up 11-5 and 8-4 in the AFC. Then it becomes much less unlikely we could beat out one of the AFCW teams. If it's KC we have to beat out, they would need to go no better than 4-2 and have only two more AFC wins. If it's Denver we have to beat out, they would need to go no better than 4-2, with three more AFC wins.

 

These are the scenarios where the Bills tie the third place AFCW team. I don't pretend to understand the tie breakers at that point, and it's not worth the effort to figure it out, since this ain't happenin'. Most likely all three AFCW teams will win at least four of their remaining games, all getting to at least 11 wins, and the Bills won't run the table. The statistical figure I saw of a 20% chance for the Bills to make the playoffs seems too high. Will one of the AFCW teams really collapse in the second half? I don't see it happening barring several injuries to key players or injuries to all the players at a single position.

 

I'm willing to keep the faith, until the fat lady sings. But she's warming up, and the orchestra is playing her intro.

 

Go Bills. Beat the Bengals.

You forgot the part about the virgin birth to a unicorn under a rainbow during a full solar eclipse.

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