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Cap Space and Needs 2017


Virgil

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There is no way we are paying Zach Brown $8 million/year when we have Preston Brown playing well and for cheap and a returning Reggie Ragland on a rookie contract. That's bad cap management. Unless they feel that they want to get rid of Preston Brown and keep Zach.

 

Zach Brown is paying great. Let someone else pay him that money though.

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Kyle will be 34 next year. If he doesn't make it through this season, then he is definitely gone. Graham will be 32. Letting them go saves $10 million, which would allow the Bills to meet next year's needs for the most part. Finding a replacement for carpenter adds another $2.5 if need be.

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What I would like to see:

8 Mil Zach Brown

4 Mil Lorax

8 Mil FA WR

5 Mil Draft Picks

5 Mil (Re-signing Bills depth players)

30 Mil total

 

No offense, but even if Z. Brown got $8M a year average, I doubt his cap hit for the year would be $8M. If you look at Brandon Marshall and his $8M/year average, the cap hit for his first year is $4.5. Same thing goes for the $8M you have designated for a FA WR. So I think you could free up even more money there.

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Zach was signed to a one year deal for a reason. I think he gets re-signed for 7-8 mil a year and he'd be worth it.

 

I don't know why you don't think Darby can be a #1 though?

If Zach wants more than $5m then I say let him go and bring in another cheap journeyman veteran to compete with Ragland for the spot opposite Preston in 2017. To me Gilmore is a key cog in this defense, he might not be worth a top 5 contract but think we'll franchise him as if we don't some team with a lot of cap space would spend some money on him. Lorax knows his role and think if we give him a fair deal for 2 - 3 years to be a backup LB (as think Lawson starts in 2017). I don't like losing Woods but we might as could see him getting a contract like Sanu got from the Falcons from a WR needy team which could mean drafting a WR in the 1st Round. Corey Davis is a guy I could see drafting pending his combine.

 

In terms of QB, if we make the playoffs then Tyrod stays but EJ a tough one to figure, as think he's a solid backup but if he truly wants to start then he's gone and we have to find a vet to replace him. The UFA isn't pretty for guys I would want starting long term but a serviceable backup to play in a game or two that can let Cardale to further develop might be had but could cost $4m.

Edited by The Jokeman
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No. Robey is a slot corner. We would Seymour to get ready for taking that other spot. I think he should be ready by then.

 

Likewise. Robey is purely a slot guy. If we are looking to replace from within it is Seymour. I'd like to see them try and bring White back on another cheap deal too. He has played better than I expected.

 

If Gilmore is not here next year expect them to use a 1st / 2nd or a worst 3rd round pick on a CB.

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sign brown to a 5-6 mil per year deal. you could probably get him at 5 in the next couple weeks. let gilmore walk...i had been saying trade him for a 1st last year and was called insane. draft a replacement. i'd say extend woods if we can get him on a reasonable deal...6 mil per or so. kyle is a tough one...the pats let wilfork go so i might just eat the dead cap and move on sadly. i know we all want that huge wr for the redzone but i want one of those little quick guys like cobb or edelman that you can do quick throws to all day.

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I fully admit to guess as to what Zach would fetch. From my understanding, this was a prove it deal. He's fairly young with all the capabilities of being "the guy" at ILB and he's proving it. In today's market, I don't see him signing for less that 6 mil if his season continues like this.

 

But as alway, happy to be wrong.

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I fully admit to guess as to what Zach would fetch. From my understanding, this was a prove it deal. He's fairly young with all the capabilities of being "the guy" at ILB and he's proving it. In today's market, I don't see him signing for less that 6 mil if his season continues like this.

 

But as alway, happy to be wrong.

 

to me he's a must sign as without him our defense would be awful this year missing ragland. then go into next year easing ragland into the lineup and having depth at the position

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No offense, but even if Z. Brown got $8M a year average, I doubt his cap hit for the year would be $8M. If you look at Brandon Marshall and his $8M/year average, the cap hit for his first year is $4.5. Same thing goes for the $8M you have designated for a FA WR. So I think you could free up even more money there.

None taken. You're probably right and I'm happy to be wrong.

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No offense, but even if Z. Brown got $8M a year average, I doubt his cap hit for the year would be $8M. If you look at Brandon Marshall and his $8M/year average, the cap hit for his first year is $4.5. Same thing goes for the $8M you have designated for a FA WR. So I think you could free up even more money there.

 

but then you have to make up that 3.5 mil at some point so he would have an 11.5 cap hit somewhere. can't turn into new orleans cap wise...with all our space it might be wise to take a higher cap hit next year then kicking the can

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I can see Woods and Gilmore getting us a pick. I would really hope we would franchise and trade Gilmore. I know that's rare, but I could see it happening.

 

Lorax and Zach signed 1 year deals and have only been with us for that year. I didn't think those things qualified. Am I wrong?

 

EJ wouldn't sign for enough to give us much and I don't think his being a first round pick factors in.

Doesnt matter the contract we had the players on for Compensatory Pick. It is NET LOSS next year. So depends on what happens in offseason.

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but then you have to make up that 3.5 mil at some point so he would have an 11.5 cap hit somewhere. can't turn into new orleans cap wise...with all our space it might be wise to take a higher cap hit next year then kicking the can

 

Depends on if that $3.5M is guaranteed or not. If it's not, the team may never pay that money. Teams always shift money, that's how most NFL contracts are structured.

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None taken. You're probably right and I'm happy to be wrong.

Zach Brown is likely going to get a contract offer around the Danny Trevathan number of last year

 

So i am guessing from another team he sees 6.125M to 7M a year.

 

For Bills if he wants to stay in a defense he is excelling in likely between 5.5M and 6M.

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Zach Brown is likely going to get a contract offer around the Danny Trevathan number of last year

 

So i am guessing from another team he sees 6.125M to 7M a year.

 

For Bills if he wants to stay in a defense he is excelling in likely between 5.5M and 6M.

 

With a cap hit probably less than that.

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With a cap hit probably less than that.

Correct on my phone hard to use spotrac on a phone to see how Travathan is structured. I just used the AVV.

 

So likely based on structure a cap hit for Brown is prolly between 3.5 and 5.0 using the Travathan contract. But he will get that fake years to bump the yearly AVG.

 

I dont think Zach sniffs Derrick Johnsons contract yet. But keeps playing this year he may see a 8M a year AVG in open market with around a 6M cap hit

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Correct on my phone hard to use spotrac on a phone to see how Travathan is structured. I just used the AVV.

 

So likely based on structure a cap hit for Brown is prolly between 3.5 and 5.0 using the Travathan contract. But he will get that fake years to bump the yearly AVG.

 

I dont think Zach sniffs Derrick Johnsons contract yet. But keeps playing this year he may see a 8M a year AVG in open market with around a 6M cap hit

I think that these numbers are more reasonable, and all though it is clear that Zach has been teariffic this year, I think if he getsaid up north of $5 million, I would unfortunately let him walk. We couldn't have a better guy waiting in the wings, and hopefully Whaley/ Monos/ Fisher are able to find a FA vet who can still back up the ILB position capably, and take the 4th or 5th rounder we would get for the 2018 draft for letting Zach walk for a contract above $5 million and hopefully gets as high as $6 or $7 million- the more, the better as far as the comp pick goes.

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I'm working off of this as a starting point:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2017/

 

The team has 35 players under contract for a total of ~$140M.

 

Let's assume a cap increase of $10M and a rollover of $5M (it's currently $6.6M, but we'll have to account for in-season signings, so $5M is conservative). This puts the 2017 cap at $170M, so I agree with the $30M in space that the OP suggests.

 

RFA Tenders

Mike Gilislee - Original round (assume 8% increase from previous year, so figure $1.8M)

Ryan Groy - Original round ($1.8M)

Colton Schmidt - Original round ($1.8M)

 

Do not tender Meeks, Ola, or Ikard.

 

That $5.4M knocks the cap space down to $25.4M

 

2017 Draft Picks

2016 draft picks accounted for a total of $5.541M against the cap--if we bump this by another 8%, we get to almost exactly $6M

 

This knocks the cap space down to $19.4M

 

UFAs to re-sign

Zach Brown - use the Trevathan contract and assume 2017 cap hit of $6.35M

Leger Douzable - give him a slight bump to $800k

Lerentee McCray - give him a slight bump to $800k

Corey White - give him a slight bump to $800k

Jerome Felton - give him a slight bump to $800k

Justin Hunter - give him a $1.5M one-year "prove it" deal

 

The above totals $11.05M, which brings us down to $8.4M in cap space with 51 players under contract.

 

This is the starting point IMO. The above assumes that the following guys are allowed to walk:

 

Gilmore

Woods

Mills

Bryant

Manuel

Bush

Goodwin

Duke Williams

Brandon Tate

Chris Gragg

Colt Anderson

Robert Blanton

Greg Salas

LorAx

Spikes

Humber

IK

 

The big decisions come down to the following guys:

 

Tyrod - $15.1M cap hit remains if he's picked up; $13.1M in cap space gained if he's not

Kyle Williams - $8.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $6.8M in cap space gained if he's cut

Corey Graham - $5.3M cap hit remains if he stays; $3.8M in cap space gained if he's cut

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