A Look Back at the Stevie Johnson Trade

[Agent 91]

I would have rather had Stevie than Percey Harvin in a heartbeat.

 

Forget that, I would have rather had Stevie than any other WR we have on this team. I won't say, that includes Sammy, but I'm pretty close. Sammy is look like a Nancy out there. This season will be a put up or shut up for him IMO. If he misses some games because of minor injuries... I'm no longer going to believe he's a future superstar. He'll be just another what if, coulda been typ of player.

For me its not the injuries. For me its the play after reception. He is too big and I thought too physical to just go down. He hasnt made anyone miss. His yards are mostly bombs. I thought he was gonna go out and make a few guys miss and bounce off of people.

[eball]

You seem to be changing my arguement substantially. Please stick to what I said. I'm not arguing who's better, just that there isn't a huge difference between the two and that SJ could help the Bills. Respond to that.

 

The "played injured" card is very weak sauce. Wow, you know what a player on your team went through. How about SJ? Did you look to see if he played hurt? Every player has to suit up with injury of some kind during the season. Woods did. Johnson did. It's part of the game. Had Woods played substantially below what he previously did, then maybe injury could be a big consideration. But that wasn't the case.

 

I think there is a pretty big difference between the two players, and what Woods does is more beneficial to the Bills than what Stevie does. For example, Woods embraced the run-blocking aspect of his role and excels at it -- hugely important in a run-oriented offense.

 

As for the "playing hurt" issue, yes, I agree all players do this to some degree. I think we'll see pretty quickly, though, that Woods was really hurt last season. He's also entering his prime and playing for a new contract.

[BarleyNY]

I think there is a pretty big difference between the two players, and what Woods does is more beneficial to the Bills than what Stevie does. For example, Woods embraced the run-blocking aspect of his role and excels at it -- hugely important in a run-oriented offense.

 

As for the "playing hurt" issue, yes, I agree all players do this to some degree. I think we'll see pretty quickly, though, that Woods was really hurt last season. He's also entering his prime and playing for a new contract.

For the record, I think SJ was the better player last season - but not by much. This season? It wouldn't surprise me if either SJ or EW was the better player. Beyond that, SJ is more expensive than EW and does not have the potential upside EW has. He is what he is at this point and it'll only be downhill from there. I could see why a coach would want SJ for the very short term, but would prefer EW for the long term. But it isn't an either/or question. I think the Bills would be better with both. A veteran like SJ would be good to have to push EW and the other young WRs. He'd be good to have as a 3 who could step up to a 2 - and for general depth. He's not the only guy like that out there and the Bills may yet pick one up to fill that role. Probably cheaper. I hope they do because I don't have the same high expectations you do for the WR corps. I see one very talented player in Watkins, but I worry about the injury bug biting. Woods as a #2 isn't a big threat. I think he'll be solid. Nor more, no less. After that it's just hope. SJ - or another solid vet - sitting there on the roster fighting with EW for the 2/3 WR spots would make me feel a lot better. I'd feel better about EW having earned the #2 spot, I'd feel better about the WR rotation and I'd feel better when a starter had to miss time.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Stevie Johnson: 10 games, 45 Rec, 497 Yds, 3 TDs, 1 Fum

Robert Woods: 14 games, 47 Rec, 552 Yds, 3 TDs, 2 Fum

 

I'm not sure how anyone can say that the first guy listed above sucks and wasn't worth keeping, but the second one deserves to be our #2 WR.

Easy- second guy is a better blocker, 20% more productive over the last 3 seasons and half the price.

 

Steive worked as the best guy in what was probably the NFLs worst recover group for 3 seasons and had and ideally matched offense and QB. Since then he's been performing closer to where his draft position speculated he would.

[eball]

For the record, I think SJ was the better player last season - but not by much. This season? It wouldn't surprise me if either SJ or EW was the better player. Beyond that, SJ is more expensive than EW and does not have the potential upside EW has. He is what he is at this point and it'll only be downhill from there. I could see why a coach would want SJ for the very short term, but would prefer EW for the long term. But it isn't an either/or question. I think the Bills would be better with both. A veteran like SJ would be good to have to push EW and the other young WRs. He'd be good to have as a 3 who could step up to a 2 - and for general depth. He's not the only guy like that out there and the Bills may yet pick one up to fill that role. Probably cheaper. I hope they do because I don't have the same high expectations you do for the WR corps. I see one very talented player in Watkins, but I worry about the injury bug biting. Woods as a #2 isn't a big threat. I think he'll be solid. Nor more, no less. After that it's just hope. SJ - or another solid vet - sitting there on the roster fighting with EW for the 2/3 WR spots would make me feel a lot better. I'd feel better about EW having earned the #2 spot, I'd feel better about the WR rotation and I'd feel better when a starter had to miss time.

 

I don't believe Stevie would bring anything more to the Bills this season than Greg Salas or Leonard Hankerson, but he'd bring the baggage of being a "former #1" to the locker room.

 

We just clearly have differing opinions on Stevie's value at this point in his career.

[Dorkington]

Okay Tasker's Ghost, 3rd and final chance to comment on Sammy's performance when put into context against his peers:

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/

 

You've ignored the previous 2 times I've posted it, so I won't hold my breath.

 

Bottom line: on a per-target basis when normalized for how often teams pass vs run, Sammy is as good as anyone not named Antonio Brown.

 

As to Stevie, $7M/year for a guy that would've been their #2 option in the passing game wasn't practical back when he was traded; now it's becoming the norm (see Marvin Jones and Mo Sanu).

I put it all out there for him as well, but I doubt there will be a response. I just don't see how anyone can dislike the performance that Sammy has put out yet.

[thebandit27]

I put it all out there for him as well, but I doubt there will be a response. I just don't see how anyone can dislike the performance that Sammy has put out yet.

Very unlikely to get a response.

 

IF there is one, it'll skew the topic if history is any indication--(i.e. the discussion about Buffalo's rushing offense, in which we HAD to remove QB rushing yards for Buffalo, but COULDN'T remove them for the rest of the league when comparing).

 

Regardless, the point is irrelevant. Other teams know who they need to stop. It's the reason that Belichick--whose number one priority every week is to stop what offenses do best--gave his pro bowl corner help against Sammy every play in Week 11.

[Kirby Jackson]

I put it all out there for him as well, but I doubt there will be a response. I just don't see how anyone can dislike the performance that Sammy has put out yet.

They decided that they didn't like the trade at the time. The knew very little about the prospect and would rather stick to their guns than admit being wrong.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

I don't think it's about wanting to change your opinion. It's about how wrong your opinion is.

explain what is wrong? I said I would never trade up for a WR. You say I'm wrong. Explain.

[KD in CA]

I liked Stevie but let's be honest, he was a loser.

 

This team was desperately in need of shedding losers like Stevie & Fitz. Getting any draft pick for him was a win.

[eball]

explain what is wrong? I said I would never trade up for a WR. You say I'm wrong. Explain.

 

You think making an absolute statement like that means you're "right?"

 

You have an opinion about how to best manage draft selections, and your stubbornness apparently doesn't allow you to absorb facts that suggest the Bills helped themselves by making this move -- so perhaps draft strategy shouldn't be defined by absolutes.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

But put yourself in a mind-set of someone who isn't so wedded to a position of not trading up and ask yourself whether you can see a logic in the trade. That is what we should all be trying to do. Not saying "what would I do?" but ask "is there some evidence of a reasonable logic?"

That specific trade in that draft? I've changed my opinion of the trade as time has gone by. I was for the agressive move, go get your guy.

 

But now logically I feel it made no sense to trade up for Watkins. I don't think Whaley would do it again if he could tell the future. I'm positive zero fans would do the trade again. So many good Wrs in that draft.

 

It didn't hurt us IMO. Watkins is a good player, great player actually. Plus we only gave up pick 19. But my stance on trading up has changed. I don't see the benefit anymore. Add picks,as many as possible. Whaley is a good GM. I would like him to have as many picks as possible.

You think making an absolute statement like that means you're "right?"

 

You have an opinion about how to best manage draft selections, and your stubbornness apparently doesn't allow you to absorb facts that suggest the Bills helped themselves by making this move -- so perhaps draft strategy shouldn't be defined by absolutes.

I never brought up right or wrong. Someone said I'm wrong about not wanting to trade up for a WR. I simply asked what makes me wrong? It's my opinion.

 

As for the Watkins trade, if the Giants offered Odell Beckham and a 1st round pick for Sammy Watkins you would say yes. A couple years ago I would think differently, today it's obvious.

Edited July 13, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[John from Riverside]

Stevie is a unique talent in that those talents aren't quite measurable. He's not especially fast, strong or tall. So of course you're going to have some people saying he's no good because he doesn't fit into one of those three categories.

 

The guy put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons with fitzpicksix as his QB. And then they went from a crap QB to one that was ten times worse with ej. I'd love to see what he could do on this team as a slot receicer, assuming they open up the playbook for Tyrod.

 

And the Watkins trade was a good one in retrospect. Not necessarily because of the value nor the selection (I would have rather taken Mack). But simply because Whaley and co were going to blow the later pick by taking Ebron instead of Beckham.

I dont agree with you much....but I think you are spot on here

[eball]

That specific trade in that draft? I've changed my opinion of the trade as time has gone by. I was for the agressive move, go get your guy.

 

But now logically I feel it made no sense to trade up for Watkins. I don't think Whaley would do it again if he could tell the future. I'm positive zero fans would do the trade again. So many good Wrs in that draft.

 

It didn't hurt us IMO. Watkins is a good player, great player actually. Plus we only gave up pick 19. But my stance on trading up has changed. I don't see the benefit anymore. Add picks,as many as possible. Whaley is a good GM. I would like him to have as many picks as possible.

I never brought up right or wrong. Someone said I'm wrong about not wanting to trade up for a WR. I simply asked what makes me wrong? It's my opinion.

 

As for the Watkins trade, if the Giants offered Odell Beckham and a 1st round pick for Sammy Watkins you would say yes. A couple years ago I would think differently, today it's obvious.

 

Am I a fool if I don't think it's obvious? OBJ has had Eli Manning. Let's revisit this question in five years and see what the two WRs have become.

[Gugny]

 

Am I a fool if I don't think it's obvious? OBJ has had Eli Manning. Let's revisit this question in five years and see what the two WRs have become.

 

Hopefully they become a better QB's targets.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Hopefully they become a better QB's targets.

I think that the 2nd half of the year showed that Tyrod knows he needs to target Sammy. I think that you will see 10 targets a game for Sammy from this point forward. He will be used like Julio, Brown, OBJ and all other great receivers are. Gone are the days of 2 catches on 3 targets. He will be a focal point of the office from the middle of last season until his time in Buffalo is up (which isn't anytime soon). It is going to be Tyrod to Sammy for 10 years.

[Gugny]

I think that the 2nd half of the year showed that Tyrod knows he needs to target Sammy. I think that you will see 10 targets a game for Sammy from this point forward. He will be used like Julio, Brown, OBJ and all other great receivers are. Gone are the days of 2 catches on 3 targets. He will be a focal point of the office from the middle of last season until his time in Buffalo is up (which isn't anytime soon). It is going to be Tyrod to Sammy for 10 years.

 

I hope you're right. About all of this.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I hope you're right. About all of this.

To be honest, it was kind of min boggling to me that they ever thought that it was okay to use him so little? They gave up a lot to get him, he has a great skill set and they would throw him 3 balls. I'm glad that he spoke up. Maybe he was beat up to start the year but I know that if I had a receiver with his talents I would be finding ways to get him the ball. He still lags behind other great receivers in "number of targets" but that comes from the run first offense. The chart above clearly shows that when you throw him the ball good things happen. Even the Bills can see that -can't they?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

Am I a fool if I don't think it's obvious? OBJ has had Eli Manning. Let's revisit this question in five years and see what the two WRs have become.

I used to be there but take some time and watch Beckham run routes. Its unbelievable how much separation he gets. Watkins is a great player, but there is no way someone can say today they would take Watkins over OBJ and a 1st.

 

I used to pound the table for the trade. It doesnt make sense to keep doing that. Im just happy we at least hit on Watkins.

Edited July 13, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[thebandit27]

I used to be there but take some time and watch Beckham run routes. Its unbelievable how much separation he gets. Watkins is a great player, but there is no way someone can say today they would take Watkins over OBJ and a 1st.

 

I used to pound the table for the trade. It doesnt make sense to keep doing that. Im just happy we at least hit on Watkins.

 

The thing is, it's not really genuine to use hindsight to criticize the decision at the time they made it.

 

There was no question at all that Watkins was the best offensive player in that draft, and they did what they had to do to get him.

 

Now, you're correct that very few people would choose Sammy over Beckham plus a 1st (though I'll tell you that--from my perspective--it's a whole lot closer than you might expect). That doesn't mean that it was a bad move.

 

You move up because you fall in love with a prospect and don't want to miss out. They got their guy, it was a definite hit, and he's poised to be a great player for them for a long time.

 

As far as the two players being compared, I watch both guys intently, and they're both open nearly all the time. The biggest difference I've seen is that Beckham really struggles when he's pressed at the line, which too many teams are afraid to do because of his deep speed.