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Using Analytics to find a pass rusher for Bills in draft


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There are currently some people in the NFL that are very good at evaluating college talent and some are actually excellent at it. First, you need a man at the top of the org chart who can recognize the people who are great at doing their job of scouting players.

 

The Bills have had a few people like that over the years and one was HC Chuck Knox who hired Norm Pollom away from the Rams to join him in Buffalo as director of scouting for Buffalo. From there Pollom advised the hiring of a young man by the name of Bill Polian. Mind you the Bills still found and brought in some great talent under Chuck Know despite the standing GM being a complete moron in Stew Barber.

Stew Barber was horrible. Horrible, horrible, horrible.

 

With the 19th pick of the 2016 draft the Buffalo Bills select linebacker Stephen Hawking, Oxford University.

 

Mike Mayock says that advanced analytics determined Hawking is one of the very few people capable of processing Rex's defensive scheme. Still, he has physical limitations which make him a major reach. No other team required this intelligence level at LB so Hawking may have even been available as a UDFA.

What's his 40 time? Oh wait, with the whole space-time continuum thing he should be able to cover the entire field simultaneously so perhaps his 40 time is moot. Look forward to hearing him root on his Offensive teammates when he's resting on the sidelines. Should make the highlights on ESPN.

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I actually think Mario is an intelligent player, he's just a selfish entitled person who only wants to do what he wants to do.

Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

 

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

 

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

 

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

 

smh

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Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

 

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

 

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

 

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

 

smh

 

Sammy didn't dog it. It's that simple dude.

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Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

smh

Fans are fans. If Rex left and Mario stayed they would all blame Rex. They want hope which is fine. If you blame Mario you increase hope and can even imagine that Rex is somehow competent.

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Mario: I need to be rushing the passer, not dropping into coverage.

 

Fans: What a selfish, entitled jerk! He should do what the coaches tell him to do.

 

Sammy: I need the ball thrown to me more.

 

Fans: He's right! Those stupid coaches should get him the ball more!

 

smh

Show me a game where Sammy didnt half ass it

 

You can plainly see Mario half assing it

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Show me a game where Sammy didnt half ass it

 

You can plainly see Mario half assing it

 

Plus not only was Sammy correct, Mario was wrong. It IS necessary to drop back into passing lanes as a DE when one or both of these things are happening:

 

1. You are consistently getting handled by a right tackle and putting zero pressure on the qb. When your DC sees this, he's going to run zone blitzes to help you and the TEAM get pressure on the qb or at least disrupt timing. This is what guys like Rex, Pettine and Dick LeBeau do very well when they're calling a game. All DE's are asked to do this intermittently in the 3-4's as far as I can tell. For the record, Mario didn't get asked to drop that often, and it wasn't like he was getting consistent pressure on the qb this last season anyway.

 

2. The qb you're playing against (Brady, Eli, etc) is doing a three step drop and gunning the ball for quick passes, holding it less than 2.5 seconds every time, which means no matter HOW good you are at rushing the passer, you couldn't get to him even if you were unblocked. In that case, your best use is dropping back into a passing lane and disrupting the timing of the qb with your 6 foot 6 wingspan.

 

If you don't think dropping DE's once in awhile is a good idea, you don't understand the game. Its proven, and it works against guys like Brady as it did in the second game when we played great defense, good enough to win in their house if the offense would have converted a few more points.

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I'm not there yet.

 

 

Start hating Mario even more. Come to the board and call him all sorts of names. Make fun of his engagement ring fiasco. Before long you may, despite years of evidence to the contrary, envision Rex capable of tying his own shoes.....or at least connecting the velcro.

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Sammy didn't dog it. It's that simple dude.

If Sammy didn't get his targets would he have dogged it? We don't know, but that's the big difference between the two situations. The coaches gave one of those guys what they wanted after they bitched to the media, but not the other. For the record I thought both were right in what they said, but wrong by taking it out of the locker room. And Mario sure as hell shouldn't have dogged it, but I'm not going to sit here and assume Sammy would have reacted better or worse if he didn't get what he wanted.

Edited by BarleyNY
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all have a direct correlation to the production, or potential of an edge rusher, while the 40-yard dash is essentially meaningless.

 

The quote above is from the aforementioned link and is not a new idea. I think it was Ditka who summed it up rather well when he said, "I don't care how fast he is. I want to know how fast can he get to the football".

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The reason the draft is a crap shoot and it's hard to quantify (predict) a good player is because these measures and models don't take into count the human condition. They don't account for personality, motivation, personal lives, what millions of dollars will do to someone, how hard they work, intelligence (the most underrated measure in the NFL IMO). This is where the quantitative revolution in the NFL isn't really much of a revolution. Other issues that impact player success is how well they fit the new scheme they get drafted into (lots of players get drafted in skill and the idea they can be fit into a system only to fail) and how much opportunity they get, which is interesting because teams treat late round picks as expendable and cut them quickly, rather than allowing them to develop due to the need to win now. Good read earlier this week, can't remember where, on how the draft is just a roulette machine basically and no GM is good at it.

 

Mapping out the human brain to answer a lot of those potential character questions is just a matter of time. When you are in management long enough you learn that there aren't really billions of unique personalities.

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Mapping out the human brain to answer a lot of those potential character questions is just a matter of time. When you are in management long enough you learn that there aren't really billions of unique personalities.

 

all have a direct correlation to the production, or potential of an edge rusher, while the 40-yard dash is essentially meaningless.

 

The quote above is from the aforementioned link and is not a new idea. I think it was Ditka who summed it up rather well when he said, "I don't care how fast he is. I want to know how fast can he get to the football".

I didn't mean to say that as I was making some bold statement and I didn't intend for the article to say "only draft these players." if it came off that way I apologize. With the new information available and the "analytics wave" I thought it'd be an interesting tool to look at considering the amount of players that had success vs. those that didn't.

 

This isn't to say that tape/character/effort, etc. doesn't matter, but more as a supplement to film study to sort of confirm what your eyes see. . There will always be outliers, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the best pass rushers based on sack totals are generally fantastic athletes.

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