BringBackFergy Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2015/ http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/kicking/position/defense/seasontype/2 The stats are somewhat limited as far as 2 pt conversions go (Pitt was 5 for 5 and other teams showed great success) but why not forget about extra points next year?? Is a 30 yd field goal for 1 point really all that important?? Yes, I know, the Pats lost the AFC Championship game because they missed an extra point. But we missed approx 15% of our extra points this past season. I'd be interested to see if we would have won 1 or 2 more games if we had attempted 3 or 4 two pt conversions with 50% success rate in a few games (Eagles, Jags, Giants??) Dan Carpenter may be a head case but he was clutch last year. I don't think we need to take up another roster spot With a kickoff specialist. Keep Carp for field goals and train Schultz to kick off like the kid in Indy (McAfee). In the off season, come up with 10 solid 2 pt conversion plays and forget about the extra points. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Well, in certain situations it would be ludicrous not to go for the extra point. But in general I agree. Score the first TD of the game? Why not be aggressive and try to grab an 8 point lead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2015/ http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/kicking/position/defense/seasontype/2 The stats are somewhat limited as far as 2 pt conversions go (Pitt was 5 for 5 and other teams showed great success) but why not forget about extra points next year?? Is a 30 yd field goal for 1 point really all that important?? Yes, I know, the Pats lost the AFC Championship game because they missed an extra point. But we missed approx 15% of our extra points this past season. I'd be interested to see if we would have won 1 or 2 more games if we had attempted 3 or 4 two pt conversions with 50% success rate in a few games (Eagles, Jags, Giants??) Dan Carpenter may be a head case but he was clutch last year. I don't think we need to take up another roster spot With a kickoff specialist. Keep Carp for field goals and train Schultz to kick off like the kid in Indy (McAfee). In the off season, come up with 10 solid 2 pt conversion plays and forget about the extra points. Just my opinion. It's an idea that both deserves serious consideration and will never happen. The stats I have seen are that the 1point conversion rate this year was 95% and two point try rate for last 3 years is about 48%, so statistically it's close to a push, but this is a "play not to lose" league so don't expect any bold moves in this area by NFL head coaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaSnow Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 It's an idea that both deserves serious consideration and will never happen. The stats I have seen are that the 1point conversion rate this year was 95% and two point try rate for last 3 years is about 48%, so statistically it's close to a push, but this is a "play not to lose" league so don't expect any bold moves in this area by NFL head coaches. Don't you have to figure that the numbers would be altered for a team that regularly goes for two (and theoretically becomes better than average at doing so?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Don't you have to figure that the numbers would be altered for a team that regularly goes for two (and theoretically becomes better than average at doing so?)I would think so. I'm not sure, but I think the stats also show that running plays are far more successful than passes when going for 2, which should help a team like Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I would think so. I'm not sure, but I think the stats also show that running plays are far more successful than passes when going for 2, which should help a team like Buffalo. Theoretically, if you can average 50% on 2 point conversions then you will score more points overall because you wont likely average 100% on XP with the new XP rules. So, if a team like Buffalo can average 48% or higher after seeing 15% miss on single XP tries, then its a no brainer mathematically. But no brainers never seem to happen in the NFL. I think it would be wise to always be the aggressor and go for 2 unless there are game on the situations where the 1 point is mandatory and it makes more sense to take the higher probability play in that situation. And like you said, running from the 2 probably is a higher percentage play further helping a team like Buffalo. But again, if it makes sense people in the NFL don't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Tomlin put extra training camp practices on 2 pointers in and was probably the most aggressive caller in "non obvious" situations. I am all for going for extra 2 pointers early in games. When games get tight second half play percentages but in the first half be as aggressive as you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChevyVanMiller Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2015/ http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/kicking/position/defense/seasontype/2 The stats are somewhat limited as far as 2 pt conversions go (Pitt was 5 for 5 and other teams showed great success) but why not forget about extra points next year?? Is a 30 yd field goal for 1 point really all that important?? Yes, I know, the Pats lost the AFC Championship game because they missed an extra point. But we missed approx 15% of our extra points this past season. I'd be interested to see if we would have won 1 or 2 more games if we had attempted 3 or 4 two pt conversions with 50% success rate in a few games (Eagles, Jags, Giants??) Dan Carpenter may be a head case but he was clutch last year. I don't think we need to take up another roster spot With a kickoff specialist. Keep Carp for field goals and train Schultz to kick off like the kid in Indy (McAfee). In the off season, come up with 10 solid 2 pt conversion plays and forget about the extra points. Just my opinion. I think you mean Schmidt, not Schultz (he's the guy that sees, hears and knows nothing). As for the point of the post, I agree that the Bills should work on 2 pt conversions, they were awful this year, and employ them more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Draft a kicker this year who can do both and free up some cap space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Draft a kicker this year who can do both and free up some cap space.I seriously think Schmidt could do kickoffs. The kid has a leg and a kickoff is really just a 90 degree turn of the ball with no oncoming rushers. Save Carp for field goals and onside kicks. I think you guys see where I'm going with this thread. If you look at the stats from last year vs the year before or back to 2010....more and more teams are doing it. I believe we would have won one more game if we went for 2 pt conversions 50% of the time. Playoffs maybe. I think you mean Schmidt, not Schultz (he's the guy that sees, hears and knows nothing). As for the point of the post, I agree that the Bills should work on 2 pt conversions, they were awful this year, and employ them more often.Oops, yes. Schmidt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I seriously think Schmidt could do kickoffs. The kid has a leg and a kickoff is really just a 90 degree turn of the ball with no oncoming rushers. Save Carp for field goals and onside kicks. I think you guys see where I'm going with this thread. If you look at the stats from last year vs the year before or back to 2010....more and more teams are doing it. I believe we would have won one more game if we went for 2 pt conversions 50% of the time. Playoffs maybe. Oops, yes. Schmidt Are you trying to make Sanborn obsolete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Are you trying to make Sanborn obsolete? Noooooo, we still have to punt and kick field goals. I would never do that to Gugmeister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Theoretically, if you can average 50% on 2 point conversions then you will score more points overall because you wont likely average 100% on XP with the new XP rules. So, if a team like Buffalo can average 48% or higher after seeing 15% miss on single XP tries, then its a no brainer mathematically. But no brainers never seem to happen in the NFL. I think it would be wise to always be the aggressor and go for 2 unless there are game on the situations where the 1 point is mandatory and it makes more sense to take the higher probability play in that situation. And like you said, running from the 2 probably is a higher percentage play further helping a team like Buffalo. But again, if it makes sense people in the NFL don't do it. Unfortunately, they don't give you credit for "overall points" in the NFL--only overall points per game. If you fail 50% (or more) of the time at a 2 pointer while your opponent is getting a PAT 95% of the time, you will not win trading touchdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Unfortunately, they don't give you credit for "overall points" in the NFL--only overall points per game. If you fail 50% (or more) of the time at a 2 pointer while your opponent is getting a PAT 95% of the time, you will not win trading touchdowns. I think his point is: If we score 3 TD's (18 pts) and are successful on 2 of our 3 attempts at two pt conversions (4 pts) we would have 22 pts rather than 21 pts (if we make all three kicked extra pts...if we miss one of those kicks we have 20 pts). There are some games where we score 4 TD's so the score would increase as we get better at 2 pt conversions vs those teams who insist on kicking extra pts with the end result (as we have witnessed with our own eyes) of more kickers missing extra pts and losing games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I think his point is: If we score 3 TD's (18 pts) and are successful on 2 of our 3 attempts at two pt conversions (4 pts) we would have 22 pts rather than 21 pts (if we make all three kicked extra pts...if we miss one of those kicks we have 20 pts). There are some games where we score 4 TD's so the score would increase as we get better at 2 pt conversions vs those teams who insist on kicking extra pts with the end result (as we have witnessed with our own eyes) of more kickers missing extra pts and losing games. You are assuming both of the success rates for PAT and 2 point are 66%. They aren't close. Other than Sunday, how many games have your eyes seen that were lost because of missed PATs this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 You are assuming both of the success rates for PAT and 2 point are 66%. They aren't close. Other than Sunday, how many games have your eyes seen that were lost because of missed PATs this year? Not many...but how many games have you seen where we lost by 2 pts or even 3? 2 pt conversions would seem to get us closer to closing that 2 or 3 pt gap. (See Jags game) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Other than Sunday, how many games have your eyes seen that were lost because of missed PATs this year? Not the point. The question is, "How many games could have been won by going for 2 instead of kicking?" Answer is, "a lot." Just ask Green Bay fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not many...but how many games have you seen where we lost by 2 pts or even 3? 2 pt conversions would seem to get us closer to closing that 2 or 3 pt gap. (See Jags game) The Jags game was lost for reasons other than not going for 2. Again, if only 50% of 2 point conversions are successful, the outcome would be the same in a 2 or 3 point loss. Not the point. The question is, "How many games could have been won by going for 2 instead of kicking?" Answer is, "a lot." Just ask Green Bay fans. Well, how many is a lot? We are talking about changing the way the game is played here. You can't convince anyone with a single anecdote that there are "a lot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I'd be ok with getting rid of all kicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 League wide: Teams averaged 0.957 points per attempt when attempting 2 pt conversions. Teams averaged 0.942 points per attempt when attempting extra points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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