bobobonators Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) Though I loved Schwartz, I don't think one can simply say our defense was going to continue to be as stellar this year as it was last year. Some players on this D had career years (or matched career highs) last year (Hughes/Dareus/MW mainly) and our DLine was healthy most of the year. Hughes and Dareus got paid and KW got injured this year. MW through a hissy fit and decided to stop playing. A regression to the mean may have occurred regardless of who the D-Coordinator would have been. Look at Schwartz's time in Detroit (Granted he was the HC and not the DC - Gunther Cunningham was the D-coordinator): 2009: Last in yds/game; last in pts/game (*he inherited a god-awful team) 2010: 21st in yds/game; 19th in pts/game (huge improvement) 2011: 23rd in yds/game; 23rd in pts/game (slight regression) 2012: 13th in yds/game; 27th in pts/game (more of a regression) 2013: 16th in yds/game; 15th in pts/game (improvement) The previous three years before Schwartz arrived to Buffalo the Bills were: 2011: 26th in yds/game; 30th in pts/game (George Edwards) 2012: 22nd in yds/game; 26th in pts/game (Dave Wannstedt) (first year that MW, KW and MD are all together) 2013: 10th in yds/game; 20th in pts/game (Mike Pettine) (first year that Hughes, MW, KW and MD are all together) With Schwartz in 2014: 4th in yds/game; 4th in pts/game - It's almost impossible to get better than this in 2015. It was an epic year defensively. Coincidently, the year after Schwartz left Detroit, Detroit had a monster defensive year: 3rd in pts/game; and 2nd in yds/game under Teryl Austin. However, under Austin they finished 18th in yds/game and 23rd in pts/game this year. That's a huge drop off but to be fair, the Lions lost several key players over the off season. What all this says to me is that Schwartz's scheme may have indeed been a great fit for this Bills defense but it also can't be ignored how 2014 was a perfect storm in terms of production from key players such as MW, MD and Hughes. The current crop of players on this defense had been together a few years already and were improving a bit each year through 2013 until finally exploding in 2014. We couldn't have possibly expected MD/Hughes/MW to have even better years than their career years in 2014 and they didn't - not even close. The KW injury also hurt this defense. At the end of the day, in 2015 under Rex we finished 15th in pts/game; and 19th in yds/game - numbers that are pretty similar to those produced by this core crop of defensive players (KW, MW, Hughes, MD, Gilmore, etc) in 2013 under Pettine. In fact, Rex's defense gave up almost 2 points less per game (22.4) this year compared to Pettine in 2013 (24.2). Unless you're truly an elite defensive unit, defensive standings/rankings are fluid from year to year. This year we saw that regression with the Bills. Regroup, add some new blood in key spots (LB/DE) and perhaps we can have a bounce-back year next year on defense. Above all, remaining healthy in 2016 is key. Lets see what Rex can do in yr two. Many of us (including myself) viewed this year as a failure in large part due to the way the defense performed. However, part of the reason we feel so down on the defense may be because our expectations were simply too high for this defense. Edited January 5, 2016 by bobobonators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickelCity Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I appreciate the time it took to write that up, but even with regression to the mean on D, I thought our offensive production (and the emergence of Taylor) warranted a better record and a shot at a wildcard. Upset that Rex couldn't/wouldn't adjust the D to fit personnel. Long, long wait to see if the players we get to fit his scheme make a difference. 9 months. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What does 3.5 have to do with anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 What does 3.5 have to do with anything? What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What do you mean? I'll let someone else explain, as I don't remember the particulars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) I'll let someone else explain, as I don't remember the particulars. LOL. I'm confused. I appreciate the time it took to write that up, but even with regression to the mean on D, I thought our offensive production (and the emergence of Taylor) warranted a better record and a shot at a wildcard. Upset that Rex couldn't/wouldn't adjust the D to fit personnel. Long, long wait to see if the players we get to fit his scheme make a difference. 9 months. Ugh. We'll see. We though Pettine did a pretty good job when he was with us for one year, but that was because look how bad our defense was before he got to Buffalo. The defense Pettine had was pretty similar (in terms of core players) in personnel to the one we had this year and the scheme was pretty similar too. There weren't too many threads in 2013 discussing how the personnel didn't fit the scheme. Edited January 5, 2016 by bobobonators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 LOL. I'm confused. We'll see. We though Pettine did a pretty good job when he was with us for one year, but that was because look how bad our defense was before he got to Buffalo. The defense Pettine had was pretty similar (in terms of core players) in personnel to the one we had this year and the scheme was pretty similar too. There weren't too many threads in 2013 discussing how the personnel didn't fit the scheme. I dont EVER remember dropping so many DL back in coverage in Pettine's scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 I dont EVER remember dropping so many DL back in coverage in Pettine's scheme. There have been numerous posts about how MW dropping back into coverage has been exaggerated, though I don't remember the stats off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DasNootz Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Given that last year's team was 9-7 and nearly every defensive starter was returning and add a viable QB, Top tier RB, Percy Harvin, Charles Clay etc to the offense.... I don't think the expectation to improve upon the record was too much. Injuries, penalties and the defenses inability to adapt to a new scheme killed us. I fully expect the defense to retool and improve with another offseason to learn/adjust. With any luck, injuries to key personnel won't be duplicated and our offense seemed to gel at the end of the season. Penalty improvement, I wouldn't count on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 with a halfway decent defense we are in the playoffs given how unexpectedly well our offense has played at times. we are better than the Chiefs and Jets and yet we were out of the mix the last month of the season. just think if we had a top 10 defense! i'd put us on par with Denver and Cinci at that point. our expectations were where they should be and we underperformed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) There have been numerous posts about how MW dropping back into coverage has been exaggerated, though I don't remember the stats off the top of my head. A few Drop backs aren't what really marginalizes a Mario... It's the gap responsibilities same with Kyle and Dareus And yeah my expectations are always too high. I expect them to not suck, but then they go ahead and suck anyway. Edited January 5, 2016 by over 20 years of fanhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 My expectations were spot on. YOUR expectations were high. Most thought we closed the gap with the Pats by signing these big name players. Games are played ON THE FIELD. Not on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
familykwi Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ultimately we lost 3 games to teams with losing records (Giants, Jaguars, Eagles) that cannot happen if you are a legit power team. This team may have talent, but it needs to have more than physical skills. Someone above suggested that the penalty situation was not likely to improve. If that is true, then this team lacks the mental talent to be anything more than it is now. Although it is easy to blame Rex for the lack of discipline this team shows, they are by their own admission, grown men and have to provide leadership from within to remedy this problem. Although I wanted the team to re-sign Hughes, I wish they had not now. Playing for stats and not playing smart if for losers. The types of penalties Hughes draws is a liability. He is a good starting point for what this team needs to become if they are going to become a winner. Taylor claimed he wanted to be known as a passer who can also run, but when I see him start to run, I rarely feel like he's extending a pass play as much as I feel he's done in the pocket and he's looking for running lanes. He needs to develop his short passing game and learn how to keep his eyes upfield more. EJ simply has to go. I don't see that anyone in this organization has confidence he can win anything at this level. I read that he works hard, but if that is so, he has so little to show for it. He's simply not an NFL QB. I really was hoping Pegula would show this team and the fans he will have little tolerance for failure. I'm not a fan of the Browns style of management (constant turnover), but Rex needed to back up all of his talk. He did not, now it feels like the message sent is that it is OK to try and fail. Expectations are irrelevant at this point. EVERY champion has to overcome obstacles and play under pressure. That should always be the goal, so no more excuses. Get it done, or get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 My expectations were spot on. YOUR expectations were high. Most thought we closed the gap with the Pats by signing these big name players. Games are played ON THE FIELD. Not on paper. LOL. My expectations were the following: Best case scenario 10-6 and our defense would regress a bit. I had zero idea how the offense would do because i had no idea how TT would perform. It turns out the offense performed much better than expected, but the defense was a bit worse than what I expected them to regress to. A few Drop backs aren't what really marginalizes a Mario... It's the gap responsibilities same with Kyle and Dareus And yeah my expectations are always too high. I expect them to not suck, but then they go ahead and suck anyway. I'm not going to sit here and pretend I understand every single intricacy of Rex's scheme, but how different is Rex's scheme from the one that Pettine runs? Pettine and Rex were together from 2002 - 2012 - tied at the hip. Look at the numbers MW, KW and Hughes put up under Pettine in 2013. They were very good. Just how much of a difference is there between Rex and Pettine in terms of complexity? Is it really THAT different? Or could it also be that MW, Hughes, MD all had down years as a unit from last year? How often do we see players get paid and then regress? pretty often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellDopeland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I guess it is our fault. We expected too much. But what were the expectations predicated on? Was it based on new aquisitions? Was it based on our supposed defensive prowess? Or was it based on what we were being told by the organization? Who was running the hype-machine at full tilt the entire offseason? I believe his name is Rex Ryan. He fueled the expectations going back to his introductory press conference with his bluster. So I guess I'm changing my view- it wasn't that the fans'expectations were so high as the fact that the organization's were. Or, maybe the expectations were spot-on and the coach didn't put his players in the position to meet those expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What do you mean? Regressing to the mean, which backs your theory that there's a good likelihood that Schwartz's defense would not have repeated last year's feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Expectations were fine. Injuries and stupid penalties killed us. If Taylor stays healthy, we win the Jax game. If we weren't ravaged by injuries for much of the season at RB and WR, I think we win another game. If we don't take as many stupid, selfish penalties, we maybe win another game. Lots of "ifs". But, I truly feel we were close. I also think the 3 headed QB competition hurt the team's preparedness and chemistry early in the year. (also compounded by Injuries to Sammy and Tyrod, but they didn't gel together until around week 9). If they can stay healthier next year, Taylor to Watkins is going to be fun to watch. Sammy should end up close to 100 catches for 1600+ yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 with a halfway decent defense we are in the playoffs given how unexpectedly well our offense has played at times. we are better than the Chiefs and Jets and yet we were out of the mix the last month of the season. just think if we had a top 10 defense! i'd put us on par with Denver and Cinci at that point. our expectations were where they should be and we underperformed Nope. our offense struggled early and often in this season. No way this team was even close. I think it can be over time , with tweaking, familiarity and focus. Expectations were fine. Injuries and stupid penalties killed us. If Taylor stays healthy, we win the Jax game. If we weren't ravaged by injuries for much of the season at RB and WR, I think we win another game. If we don't take as many stupid, selfish penalties, we maybe win another game. Lots of "ifs". But, I truly feel we were close. I also think the 3 headed QB competition hurt the team's preparedness and chemistry early in the year. (also compounded by Injuries to Sammy and Tyrod, but they didn't gel together until around week 9). If they can stay healthier next year, Taylor to Watkins is going to be fun to watch. Sammy should end up close to 100 catches for 1600+ yards. More folks should take into account the Offense not being settled OTAs through camp and part of preseason. lack of reps for TT. and his receivers and line. Cadence to timing routes. all that Even he has mentioned it generally speaking. This is why this offseason offers hope again. Let these core guys tighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I guess it is our fault. We expected too much. But what were the expectations predicated on? Was it based on new aquisitions? Was it based on our supposed defensive prowess? Or was it based on what we were being told by the organization? Who was running the hype-machine at full tilt the entire offseason? I believe his name is Rex Ryan. He fueled the expectations going back to his introductory press conference with his bluster. So I guess I'm changing my view- it wasn't that the fans'expectations were so high as the fact that the organization's were. Or, maybe the expectations were spot-on and the coach didn't put his players in the position to meet those expectations. Many here cautioned -albeit through off-season giddiness- that an entirely new coaching staff combined with 10 new starters will take a lot of time to gell and victories may hang in the balance. This was before we ended up bringing 10-12 players onto the active roster during the season due to injuries. My biggest concerns for next year are turnovers -which were too few and the penalties. One could argue we lost 2 games because of penalties and made a few games much closer than they should have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The expectations should have been the playoffs and we had the schedule to make it. It was a failure of a season. We went 1-3 against the garbage NFC East and somehow made a top 3 defense bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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