Estro Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Here's some fun with the playoff simulator: The Bills have two main playoff scenarios (ignoring exotic scenarios like getting a Wild Card at 8-8 (6% chance according to NY Times simulator) or getting in at 9-7 while losing to the Jets (14% chance!).) (A) Bills get in the playoffs at 10-6 by winning the rest of their games, AND any ONE of the following: (1) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati AND Bills win strength of victory tiebreaker (2) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (3) Any TWO Kansas City Losses (B) Bills get in the playoffs at 9-7 by going 2-1 vs. the NFC East, beating the NY Jets, AND any THREE of the following: (1) Any ONE other NY Jets Loss (2) Any ONE Oakland Loss (3) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (4) Any THREE Kansas City Losses So, let's say that over Weeks 14 and 15 the following happens: (1) Buffalo beats Philly and Washington (2) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Denver (3) Oakland loses at Denver and/or vs. Green Bay (4) NY Jets lose at Dallas If those four things all happen, then the necessary conditions for the Bills making the playoffs iin both Scenario A and in Scenario B would be fulfilled. Thus, Buffalo would enter the game against Dallas knowing that win or lose vs. Dallas they could clinch a playoff berth the following week at home against the NY Jets. And in fact, so long as the Jets don't lose both games, the Bills would know that they had no "clinching" scenarios in Week 16 either - i.e., win or lose against Dallas, they would still be "in the hunt" for Week 17. The game of course wouldn't be really meaningless, because a win vs. Dallas would give the Bills a few tiny "backdoor" scenarios for making the playoffs even with a Jets loss - but it nevertheless could be a game in which there isn't all that much on the line as we normally think of it. Exact tie breaking procedures for wildcard teams is as follows (from NFL.com): Three or More Clubs(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.) Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. Strength of victory. Strength of schedule. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Best net points in conference games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss So my question is if the Steelers beat the Bengals this weekend, doesn's that kill us in tie breaker rule #4. Are common opponents with the Steelers are Patriots, Bengals, Colts and Chiefs. We would be 1-4 in those games, Steelers would be 2-3 if they beat the Bengals. I'm slowly realizing that the Steelers must lose to the Bengals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Quint Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Im pretty sure that 4merper4mer already told us in week 1 that the Dallas game would be a good one to lose. Not sure why its such a surprise to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Also as a follow up this is currently where all teams strength of victory stands: http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff Steelers remaining games (@CIN 10-2, DEN 10-2, @BAL 4-8, @CLE 2-10) Bills remaining games (@PHI 5-7, @WAS 5-7, DAL 4-8, NYJ 7-5) Bills currently have a .444 strength of victory %, Steelers currently have a .405 strength of victory %. Assuming the Bills win out, all Bills fans should be rooting for our remaining opponents to win th games they're not playing us......and for the Steelers remaining opponents to lose the games that they're not playing the Steelers. Remember if Steelers beat Bengals this weekend, they must lose 2 of their last 3 games for Bills to beat them in tie breaking scenarios (extremely unlikely). I have little confidence in Matt Schaub or Johnny Manziel beating the Steelers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Don't care. Those bastages beat us in two SB's and I do not forget. I hope we beat Jerry by 40 points!!!!! Embarrass the hell out of them. Besides, we go into week 17 with momentum. 10-6 here we come!!!! Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think that we are going to find that the Jacksonville game was full of meaning. As of now it didn't have much more meaning than any of the others. Certainly less than KC. Why dwell on JAX game? They had to start their backup QB and he had a supreme meltdown. And no WRs. The lost opportunities were games that Tyrod started and they were relatively healthy. You have to win those, and if they don't make the playoffs it will be due to the starters not getting it done. Not a game where they fielded a taxi squad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Also as a follow up this is currently where all teams strength of victory stands: http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff Steelers remaining games (@CIN 10-2, DEN 10-2, @BAL 4-8, @CLE 2-10) Bills remaining games (@PHI 5-7, @WAS 5-7, DAL 4-8, NYJ 7-5) Bills currently have a .444 strength of victory %, Steelers currently have a .405 strength of victory %. Assuming the Bills win out, all Bills fans should be rooting for our remaining opponents to win th games they're not playing us......and for the Steelers remaining opponents to lose the games that they're not playing the Steelers. Remember if Steelers beat Bengals this weekend, they must lose 2 of their last 3 games for Bills to beat them in tie breaking scenarios (extremely unlikely). I have little confidence in Matt Schaub or Johnny Manziel beating the Steelers. One way this won't happen is the NFCLeast play each other on the last game. 2 of them will win that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchmurraydowntown Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Lose and the season is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 JDG???!?!?!?!?! Wow... Ha! I said the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santana Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Awesome breakdown, pretty much Buffalo controls their own destiny. We need these next two games BADLY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Ha! I said the same thing... Thanks Jay and SDS! Yup, its been a long time...... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Thanks Jay and SDS! Yup, its been a long time...... :-) I take it the Ravens don't need the band now that the team sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Exact tie breaking procedures for wildcard teams is as follows (from NFL.com): Three or More Clubs(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.) Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. Strength of victory. Strength of schedule. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Best net points in conference games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss So my question is if the Steelers beat the Bengals this weekend, doesn's that kill us in tie breaker rule #4. Are common opponents with the Steelers are Patriots, Bengals, Colts and Chiefs. We would be 1-4 in those games, Steelers would be 2-3 if they beat the Bengals. I'm slowly realizing that the Steelers must lose to the Bengals. In answer to your question, if the Bills and Steelers tie with a 9-7 record, that will most likely be because the Bills beat the Jets and lost to the Eagles, Redskins, or Cowboys. That would mean that the Bills would beat the Steelers on Tiebreaker #3 by virtue of having 7 conference wins to the Steelers' conference wins. If the Bills and Steelers tie at 10-6 - it would be exactly as you describe if the Steelers beat the Bengals, the Steelers beat us on tiebreaker #4. On the other hand, if the Bills and Steelers tie at 10-6, with a Steelers loss to the Bengals, then it goes to tiebreaker #5. But yes, the Bills really need the Bengals to beat the Steelers. To put it in perspective, right now the NY Times Playoff simulator gives the Bills a 23% chance of making the playoffs. Those odds go up to 46% with a Bills victory over the Eagles and a Bengals victory over the Steelers. However, those odds go down to just 17% if a Bills win over the Eagles is paired with a Steelers win over the Bengals. JDG I take it the Ravens don't need the band now that the team sucks? Hah! You have a very good memory! In all credit to the Ravens band - that organization has actually been in continuous operation since the days of the Baltimore Colts. If they can operate for more than decade without even a football team - they'll definitely survive a few bad seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDG Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Also as a follow up this is currently where all teams strength of victory stands: http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff Steelers remaining games (@CIN 10-2, DEN 10-2, @BAL 4-8, @CLE 2-10) Bills remaining games (@PHI 5-7, @WAS 5-7, DAL 4-8, NYJ 7-5) Bills currently have a .444 strength of victory %, Steelers currently have a .405 strength of victory %. Assuming the Bills win out, all Bills fans should be rooting for our remaining opponents to win th games they're not playing us......and for the Steelers remaining opponents to lose the games that they're not playing the Steelers. Remember if Steelers beat Bengals this weekend, they must lose 2 of their last 3 games for Bills to beat them in tie breaking scenarios (extremely unlikely). I have little confidence in Matt Schaub or Johnny Manziel beating the Steelers. Strength of victory tiebreaker only kicks in if the Bills win out and the Steelers lose to the Bengals and then win out. So its likely a moot point. However, if the strength of victory tiebreaker comes in to play, Bills fans should root for the Browns to lose (since Steelers would likely have swept them), as well as for the Chargers to lose (except for maybe each of their games against KC), and also root against the Cardinals (darn it Vikings!). Bills fans should root for the Texans, Titans, and Dolphins to beat the Patriots and for the same three teams to beat the Colts. Everything else is a bit murkier in terms of playoff implications. JDG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Thanks Jay and SDS! Yup, its been a long time...... :-) I didn't believe it was you until I saw the gadfly designation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JÂy RÛßeÒ Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I didn't believe it was you until I saw the gadfly designation That makes two of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norton20 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I keep reading this all over this forum. Of course it was, every loss is. The Jacksonville game shouldn't be viewed as a game that we should have won. EJ was the starting QB and Sammy was out. Looking back at it, we really shouldn't have expected any different. Plus mathematically speaking the KC loss was far more damaging. We are one game behind them with a loss to them. Add the fact they have an easy schedule coming up, and that loss affected us more. Had we beat Jacksonville and still lose to KC we would be in a 7-5 tie with them. Considering KC's easy schedule there is a high probability we lose out to them. Beat KC and we hold the tie breaker while controlling our own destiny. The Jacksonville loss was embarrassing, but the KC loss was more damaging imo. We were rolling heading into halftime. Then we decided to stop throwing to Sammy, and Rex's defense made Alex Smith look like Montana. We really shouldn't have lost that game. I'm not saying it isn't fair to be frustrated with the Jacksonville game. Personally I'm just more frustrated with the KC debacle. I don't expect any wins with EJ on the field. My complaint is that they needed 1 stop from the defense to win that game. 1 stop. EJ or not. The D had jax controlled the whole second half but could not stop them to win the game. That is an awful loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right. 2014 Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr couldn't agree more. For crying out loud you can almost smell it...joy and jubilation; we control our own destiny - then whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Winning the next 2 and then losing to Matt Cassel and the Cowboys at home sounds about right. 2014 Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr couldn't agree more. For crying out loud you can almost smell it...joy and jubilation; we control our own destiny - then whoops. +2 for BBFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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