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Toxic Differential Update: Thru Week 13


eball

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We've discussed the concept of "toxic differential" on this forum previously...it's a statistic that incorporates turnover differential along with big play differential in the run and pass games. Historically, the better teams in the league rank higher, for obvious reasons.

 

Through 13 weeks here are your top 10 (12):

 

Carolina: +48

Seattle: +38

Cincinnati: +33

Pittsburgh: +27

Buffalo: +24

KC: +22

Minnesota: +21

GB/NE***/Tampa: +12

 

The only teams currently in playoff position who fall outside of the top 15 in this statistic are Denver (+3) and Indianapolis (-25!!!!).

 

The Bills' remaining opponents are Philly (13th; +4), Washington (30th; -28), Dallas (24th; -15), and the Jets (12th; +7).

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We're also top 5 for finding the most elaborate and heartbreaking way to lose a game. The two tend to counteract each other.

Agreed. And don't step on the juggler when games are for the taking. Edited by Manther
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I've never believed much in this stat.

 

Last season the Bills led the league midseason in toxic differential and finished in the top 5. So what?

 

I think it's a good premise for a stat line and many games are decided based on these characteristics. However when you amass tons of turnovers and big plays in just a few games (like the Bills seem to do) it can inflate the perception of how often you're consistently performing at a high level. Some games we play like playoff contenders and some games we lay giant deuces.

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if Brian Billick invented this stat to me that destroys all credibility. That guy is a clown.

Ryan has mentioned it once this year.

Its obviously a reasonable metric. But again as Wazzu helps mentions, context again comes into play. almost need to take it game by game, Team vs Team and and add salt and pepper to taste..

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I'll take whatever stat I can find to win out the string, get to 10-6, and make the playoffs. It's all too likely that any 9-7 scenario won't be enough this year either. If I have to wait for next year, can there really be a year more snakebit for injuries than this one? Eventually all this talent wins out, right?

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I'll take whatever stat I can find to win out the string, get to 10-6, and make the playoffs. It's all too likely that any 9-7 scenario won't be enough this year either. If I have to wait for next year, can there really be a year more snakebit for injuries than this one? Eventually all this talent wins out, right?

Marked improvement each week.

I would say there is reasonable justification for recognizing a positive trend continuing .

keeping a close eye on how this team finishes out.

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  • 1 month later...

this is like looking at a kickers stats from +40 yards and ignoring the short ones.

 

this is like saying the team was top 10 in rushing but was lousy on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1.

 

 

TT did very well throwing deep, but was mediocre in short and middle distances.

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