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The Defense: hype vs stats


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I'm not worried about having a bad defense. I'm questioning whether the results will be better than last year's, which was damn good at #4. I'm wondering if maybe the D-line is better suited to Schwartz's system than Ryan's? That doesn't mean they will be bad, I'm wondering if they will give up more points per game under Ryan's scheme?

 

Granted, focusing on points is a narrow measure, and you can't tell how many points should really be on the O. For some reason the Jets have not ranked well in points allowed for the past 4 years--24, 19, 21, and 20, They were ranked #1 in yards and points allowed in 2009, then 1 in yards and 6 in points in 2010. Maybe the explanation is their offense was so bad? I think someone attributed to the decline in their run game.

 

Regardless, I think the Schwartz scheme is more of bend and don't break, it's a more conservative D, and his results were the best in years. I think Ryan's is more high risk, subject to giving up big plays if someone fails a responsibility. The Bills will be a top 10 D. The question is will they be better than 4th?

I think if it's a perfect D-line for Jim it's just as good for Rex, because he can do everything that Schwartz can do schematically plus so much more. If it makes sense for us to blitz less, Rex will do that as he showed last year in NJ. But he will still vary formations and assignments to confuse QBs and O-lines, which will make our pass rush even more effective. I think our personnel is more comparable to what he had in Baltimore than in NJ so I'm expecting really stellar results on the defensive side.

 

Regarding run D it may be true he doesn't have the pure nose tackle he had with those teams, but big #99 may well be up to the task if Rex really deems it necessary to change pace with a true two-gap 3-4 look. My questions about Rex are all on offense personally, just can't find a legitimate reaso, to think he'll fall off at all on D.

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Not completely, I did say defensive coach, not head coach.

That being said he is probably the best HC we have had since our super bowl years (actually....I was a big fan of Wade Phillips to)

 

It will be interesting to see if Rex second go around he learns to leave the Offensive decisons to the high profile offensive coach he has brought in.......if he does that skies the limit here

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That being said he is probably the best HC we have had since our super bowl years (actually....I was a big fan of Wade Phillips to)

 

It will be interesting to see if Rex second go around he learns to leave the Offensive decisons to the high profile offensive coach he has brought in.......if he does that skies the limit here

Did he not do that with the Jets? I was under the impression that he let his OCs do their thing. I agree that he shouldn't be scouting QBs. He should let Roman, or whoever it is, pick the QB that they want to work with.

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Not completely, I did say defensive coach, not head coach.

I noticed that!

thats where i agree. and he is smart enough to hire guys smarter than him to run the Offense. so he aint too bad of a head coach either?

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That being said he is probably the best HC we have had since our super bowl years (actually....I was a big fan of Wade Phillips to)

 

It will be interesting to see if Rex second go around he learns to leave the Offensive decisons to the high profile offensive coach he has brought in.......if he does that skies the limit here

I just wonder if he had any say in NY at QB. A game manager type seems to be the perfect fit for Rex, obviously excluding franchise QBs. But all he has played at QB are young raw turnover machines and Vick for a few games.

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I just wonder if he had any say in NY at QB. A game manager type seems to be the perfect fit for Rex, obviously excluding franchise QBs. But all he has played at QB are young raw turnover machines and Vick for a few games.

A huge point and thank you for bringing it up......

 

I feel like Rex was such a lame duck coach in recent years with the Jets.......you got a real dose of what was on his mind when they did that interview with him and Jim and THurman at that table together at that popular bills place

 

You wonder whether or not Rex had ANY say on some of these decisions.....how does a HC operate like a HC if management has taken away his power?

 

Its a fresh start in Buffalo....you def get the sense that every coach here is a "Rex guy" and not just rex guys but Pegula insuring that these were Rex Ryans top coaches.....and assistant coaches....and positional coaches

 

I feel like the bills really set Rex up for success

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I think if it's a perfect D-line for Jim it's just as good for Rex, because he can do everything that Schwartz can do schematically plus so much more. If it makes sense for us to blitz less, Rex will do that as he showed last year in NJ. But he will still vary formations and assignments to confuse QBs and O-lines, which will make our pass rush even more effective. I think our personnel is more comparable to what he had in Baltimore than in NJ so I'm expecting really stellar results on the defensive side.

Regarding run D it may be true he doesn't have the pure nose tackle he had with those teams, but big #99 may well be up to the task if Rex really deems it necessary to change pace with a true two-gap 3-4 look. My questions about Rex are all on offense personally, just can't find a legitimate reaso, to think he'll fall off at all on D.

thanks for the well-reasoned response. On run D, that is the issue, they haven't had a true, and good, NT in quite some time.

 

I was concerned when looking at the ppg stat w Jets, but looking back, that could be just as much on a bad O. The improvement on Ppg for bills' D last year is the reason they won more games. If Rex can do even better, and the O can make a jump from the 21ppg over the last 2 years, look out!

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@SiriusXMNFL: Kirwan's top ten D for 2015:

1) Seahawks

2) Bills

3) Texans

4) Lions

5) Jets

6) Ravens

7) Broncos

8) Chiefs

9) Rams

10) Cardinals

 

@SiriusXMNFL: Mills top ten D's for 2015:

 

1) Seahawks

2) Jets

3) Bills

4) Ravens

5) Broncos

6) Chiefs

7) Texans

8) Lions

9) Rams

10) Packers

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@SiriusXMNFL: Honorable mention for teams that didn't make the top ten D:

 

Pat: Steelers, Panthers, GB, Eagles

 

Mills: Panthers, Vikings, Indy Browns

 

No Dolphins or Pats?

 

Bills only play 3 teams in those top 10 lists, 4 if you count Indy on the honorable mention

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thanks for the well-reasoned response. On run D, that is the issue, they haven't had a true, and good, NT in quite some time.

 

I was concerned when looking at the ppg stat w Jets, but looking back, that could be just as much on a bad O. The improvement on Ppg for bills' D last year is the reason they won more games. If Rex can do even better, and the O can make a jump from the 21ppg over the last 2 years, look out!

And going from Marrone/Hackett to Roman.....can't wait.
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Kyle Williams was awful in the run game under Pettine and Kiko was too small to play MLB. Williams will be poor against the run but Preston Brown should be an upgrade over Kiko in the run game. Kiko was fantastic nickel LB. Brown looks good playin nickel LB too.

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Rex certainly brings excitement, but will he bring results? Will this D be better? where it matters most, points allowed, I don't think so, but I hope so.

Their personnel was well-suited for Schwartz's System, more of a bend don't break, and rely on the front 4 to put pressure. The Bills' success last year was due to the D, as ppg went from 24.3 to 18.1; and the O stayed almost the same at 21.

For Ryan's Jets, the last time their D was in the top 10 in ppg was 2010. They were #1 in Rex's first year, 2009. The last 4 years they have been average at best. They will be flashy like pettine's D, but I doubt they will out-perform last year's ranking. Their weakness, as it was under pettine, will be the run D, giving up the big play. They will be better than 2013, but they ranked 20th then vs Schwartz 4th.

If the Bills are to make the playoffs, the improvement has to be on the O, where they've made the biggest investment this year. Of, course, this is just my opinion man....

To be fair to Rex, points given up has a lot to do with your own offense's turnover -- and the Jets have done a ton of that of late. The Jets' offense was 28th best in the league in INTs in both 2012 and 2014. They were 23rd in 2011 and 16th in 2013.

 

Last year, they were 8th in yards and plays per drive but 24th in points per drive. That tells you a lot about their offense right there. That said, the defense was 32nd in forcing turnovers. But Rex was never on board with letting Revis and Cromartie go. That's all Idzik.

Edited by dave mcbride
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I love the fact that in a recent "fluff" interview by the scared lemur on bb.com Rex was asked about why he thinks the Bills' run D will improve upon last year's top-15 ranking. He said something to the effect of, "well, I watched the last ten games and they were giving up five yards a carry -- I've been a part of some of the best run Ds of all time so I think we'll be ok."

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